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News
Fed Cattle Push Past $100 -- Lots of
Them
Unlike a couple of weeks ago when fed cattle prices hit
the century mark for just a little while, and only in the Northern
Plains, last week saw cattle feeders receiving that much from north to
south. For the week, 217,000 head traded, according to the National
Agricultural Statistics Service.
There are plenty of factors at play, including USDA's estimate of spring
corn planting -- price-bearish at 90.5 million acres (see "Crops &
Weather" section below) -- but mostly it underscores supply and demand
fundamentals.
More specifically, the market continues to feel the effects of reduced
tonnage due to the harshest cattle-feeding winter most anyone can
remember.
At the annual meeting of the Texas and Southwest Cattle Raisers
Association on April 1, Randy Blach, Cattle-Fax executive vice
president, pointed out average carcass weights increased 12 lbs./carcass
for the past two years. That was the equivalent of adding 2% more beef
production each of those years. This year, between the winter and corn
prices, carcass weights are declining.
So, at about the same level of demand there just isn't as much
supply.
Best of all, according to Jim Gill, Texas Cattle Feeders Association
market director, at least in the Southern Plains, last week's market
rally -- $4-5 more than the previous week -- gave cattle feeders a
chance to get current. In his market report, Gill says the average
carryover for member yards is 44% during the first quarter; last week it
dropped to 18%.
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Stocker Management
Grazing Stockers Longer
"We have a clear situation where feedlots are looking
for heavier, older cattle," says John Anderson, Mississippi State
University Extension livestock marketing specialist. "We should see a
shift away from calf-feds to traditional feeder animals, and even
heavier. It's a normal response to high corn prices -- feedlots are
trying to reduce the amount of corn they have to feed."
Derrell Peel, Oklahoma State University livestock marketing economist,
says the need to add more weight outside the feedlot will slow the rate
of cattle turnover in the country and speed it up at the feedlot. So,
feedlot inventories will likely continue to shrink at least through the
second quarter this year.
"For the last 3-4 years, we've maintained feedlot inventories by feeding
fewer cattle more days, and now we need to feed the same small set of
cattle fewer days," Peel says.
According to Pat Smith, a longtime stocker and cow-calf operator at
Dawn, TX, that makes marketing his cattle an even bigger chore. He
normally tries to market stocker cattle at 650-750 lbs., depending on
the availability of wheat pasture and feeder prices. This year though,
he looks to push feeders to 800-850 lbs.
"With the corn situation, the bigger you can make them (outside the feed
yard) the better off you are. Hopefully we can at least break even."
Smith says.
To help manage the longer period of risk Smith protects price with
either options or hedges.
"With options, I try to purchase whatever I can for $1/cwt.," Smith
explains. "For yearlings to be marketed in May, I bought $94 puts (for
$1 premium) in December."
Those were March puts he rolled into May in early February when the
feeder market started to rebound; he was considering a straight hedge as
March approached.
"The option will protect us against a wreck. We just hope the cattle
bring a lot more than that when we market them," Smith explains.
Though options can provide stocker operators with price insurance, they
can be expensive, especially when profits are slim.
More specifically, Mark Green, a commodity broker for Schwieterman, Inc.
at Garden City, KS, says options can help secure a floor price while
leaving the upside open in the event of a rally.
"But with these price levels and volatility, nothing comes cheap," Green
says. He suggests using a put-options spread, "...something close to the
money and something about $10 out of the money."
For example, an at-the-money May feeder cattle put at $102/cwt. for
seven-weight stockers coming off wheat pasture this spring would have
cost $3.25/cwt. But by selling a $92 May put for $85/cwt., the cost of
the price protection declines to about $2.40.
"That would have left the upside open, and if the time value happens to
deteriorate, perhaps the $92 put could be bought back for 15-20¢,
lowering the cost of protection even more," Green says. "If the value of
the futures price goes below $102, those puts could be rolled down (and
a profit taken to lower the cost of protection more). The $102 puts
could be replaced with a lower floor, while the upside would still be
open."
Anderson encourages stocker operators to plan their pricing strategy
early.
"We're still seeing volatile situations with corn that could become even
more of a problem for cattle producers," Anderson says. "Last fall when
corn prices started going up, it took $150/head off a lot of cattle. If
we were to have a drought in the Corn Belt this summer, prices could be
worse. If that happens, calves bought by stocker operators that looked
cheap early on are not going to be that cheap."
Some possible price protection strategies Anderson points to:
- "If you're on a low cost of production forage system you should
be able to find a favorable buy and sell market.
- "Cash-based forward contracts are easier to carry off these days
with all of the video and Internet auctions, as well as local sales. Or,
an options or straight hedge strategy can help protect the cattle
investment.
- "Buying puts for protection against the threat from the volatile
corn market isn't a bad idea. Of course, every operator has a different
situation that can impact their level of risk taking with futures or
options."
-- by Larry Stalcup, a freelance writer based at Amarillo.
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Weather And Crops
Planting Intentions -- 90.5 Million
Acres of Corn
Farmers intend to plant the most acres of corn since
1944 when 95.5 million acres were planted, according to USDA's
"Prospective Plantings" report issued April 30. The 90.5 million acres
-- 15% more than last year -- ran at the top end of most industry
estimates ahead of the report.
Iowa and Illinois, which churn out the most corn each year, each are
adding more than 1 million acres of corn for totals of 13.9 million
acres and 12.9 million acres, respectively. According to the report,
producers in Nebraska and North Dakota are also aiming to plant
approximately 1 million more acres.
As expected, much of the increased corn planting is coming from soybean
ground. According to the report, producers intend to plant 67.1 million
acres of soybeans, 11.1% less than last year.
Cotton planting is expected to decline 20% to 20.1 million acres.
All wheat plantings are estimated to increase 5% to 60.3 million acres.
Of that, 44.5 million acres of winter wheat reflects 10% more.
For the week ending April 1, according to the National Agricultural
Statistics Service:
- Winter wheat -- 71% is rated in good or excellent
condition, compared to 38% at the same time last year, and 53% for the
week of Nov. 26, when the last rating was published.
- Spring wheat -- 3% of the crop is in the ground, which is 1%
ahead of last year and on par with the five-year average.
- Barley -- 7% of seeding is complete; 4% ahead of last year
and 2% ahead of average.
- Sorghum -- 16% of the intended acreage is sown, which is 2%
ahead of last year and 5% ahead of average.
- Oats -- 29% of planting is complete, which is 1% less than
last year and 2% behind the five-year average.
You can find the complete "Prospective Plantings" report at www.usda.gov/nass/PUBS/TODAYRPT/pspl0307.pdf
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Events
April 26 -- Feeder-Calf Evaluation & Management,
Producers Livestock Auction, San Angelo, TX; 325-659-6523.
May 1-2 -- Animal Grazing Behavior: Understanding and Managing
Livestock, Wildlife, Plans, Soils and People, Prairie Knights Casino &
Resort, Fort Yates, ND; 701-567-4323 or chrisopher.schauer@ndsu.edu.
May 2 -- Beef Cow-Calf Standardized Performance Analysis (SPA)
workshop, Texas A&M University Research and Extension Center, Vernon,
TX; 940-552-9941, ext. 231.
May 3 -- KSU Beef Cattle & Forage Crops Field Day, Southeast
Agricultural Research Center, Mound Valley, KS; 620-421-4826.
May 9-10 -- California Animal Nutrition Conference & Technical
Symposium, Piccadilly Inn University, Fresno; 916-441-2272 or aquinn@cgfa.org.
May 30-June 10 -- Beef Empire Days, Garden City, KS; 620-
275-6807 or beefempiredays@gcnet.com.
June 6-9 -- Beef Improvement Federation Annual Research and
Symposium, Hilton Fort Collins, Fort Collins, CO; 785-532-5428 or www.beefimprovement.org.
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Markets
Feeder Prices Charge Ahead
"Calves are now selling very close to year-ago levels in
most areas, with yearling feeders $5-10 higher," say analysts for the
Agricultural Marketing Service (AMS).
That's based on last week's market, which saw feeder and stocker cattle
selling firm to $4 higher, with fed cattle trading $4-5 higher (at
mostly $100 live) in all five major cattle feeding regions (see "Fed
Cattle Push Past $100 -- Lots of Them").
"Stocker cattle and calf prices continue to rise as widespread moisture
has most grazing areas lush and green," explain the AMS analysts. "Also,
the upturn in the CME Feeder Cattle Futures (stemming from the lower
grains) helped calf buyers continue to turn up the heat on calf prices."
For perspective, according to AMS, corn prices are roughly $1.25/ bu.
higher than last year, but fed cattle are selling from $17-20 higher
than the first week of April last year.
The summary below reflects the week ended April 6 for Medium and Large 1
-- 500- to 550-lb., 600- to 650-lb. (calves), and 700- to 750-lb. feeder
heifers and steers (unless otherwise noted). The list is arranged in
descending order by auction volume and represents sales reported in the
weekly USDA National Feeder and Stocker Cattle Summary:
| Summary Table |
| State | Volume | Steers | Heifers
|
| Calf Weight | 500-550 lbs. | 600-650 lbs. |
700-750 lbs. |
500-550 lbs.
| 600-650 lbs. |
700-750 lbs. |
| MO | 45,000 | $129.61 | $122.60 | $112.44 | $114.90 | $109.31 | $101.06 |
| KY* | 28,400 | $108-118 |
$102-112 | $92-1025 | $96-106 | $88-983 | $86-965 |
| OK | 22,000
| $130.66
| $121.55 | $111.65 | $118.01 | $109.34
| $101.78 |
| Dakotas | 19,700
South Dakota
North
Dakota |
$135.16
$130.28 |
$124.65
$120.72 |
$115.05
$116.944 |
$115.11
$109.54 |
$109.65
$106.58 |
$103.06
$103.77 |
| IA | 15,800
| $132.05
| $127.122 | $111.97 | $117.41 | $112.262 | $104.75 |
| TX | 15,400 | $125.93 | $115.59 | $111.27 | $118.42 |
$108.06 | $103.26 |
| KS | 13,200 | $141.26 | $124.16 | $112.34 | $118.29 | $108.28 | $103.50 |
| CO | 13,000
| $137.16
| $115.53 | $112.56 | $118.00 | $109.21 | $99.69 |
| NE | 10,600 | $133.53 | $120.00 |
$112.26 | $120.43 |
$109.15 | $104.80 |
| AL | 9,700 | $117-125 | $110-119 | $99-107 | $109-119 |
$99-107 | $84-975 |
| TN* | 8,600 | $119.19 | $107.93 | $97.78 | $105.13 | $95.74 | $88.34 |
| GA*(***) |
8,500 | $101-124 |
$90-115 | $85-106 | $95-117 | $88-103.10 | $82-93 |
| Carolinas* |
7,100 | $102-121 |
$98-113.50 | $91-101 | $90-111 | $83-99.50 | $76-88 |
| AR | 6,900 | $117-127 |
$106-1163 | $97-1075 | $103-1131 |
$97-1073 |
$87-975 |
| FL* | 5,400 | $103-121 |
$92-110 | $90-984 | $87-112 | $89-103 | $86-924 |
| NM | 5,100
| $121.28
| $106.354 | 92.08 | $108.26 | $102.392 | ** |
| VA | 4,900
| $116.15
| $108.14 | $100.38 | $102.87 | $94.98 | $89.54
|
| MS* | 4,000 | ** | $100-1103 | $90-1005 | $100-1101 |
$92-1003 |
$82-925 |
| WY | 3,200
| $126.132 | $124.43 | $107.25 | $116.77 | $105.63 | $105.084 |
| LA(ND) | 2,900 | $110-125 | $107-1172 | ** |
$101-115 | $110-1142 | ** |
| WA* | 2,000 | $114.09 | $106.29 | $99.23 | $107.28 | $98.08 | $93.87 |
| MT | 1,000
| $129.94
| $124.04 | $116.884 | $110.552 |
$104.88 | ** |
* Plus 2
** None reported at this weight or near weight
(***) Steers and bulls
(?) As reported, but questionable
NDNo Description
1500-600 lbs.
2550-600 lbs.
3600-700 lbs.
4650-700 lbs.
5700-800 lbs.
6750-800 lbs.
7800-850 lbs.
Contact
Questions & Comments
Please send questions to:
Wes Ishmael, Contributing Editor, BEEF Stocker Trends, at wesleysink@aol.com
Joe Roybal, Editor, BEEF magazine, at jroybal@beef-mag.com
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