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After the first couple months of the new administration, the one
thing we can say for certain is we voted for change and we’re
certainly getting it. In a whole host of areas, we’re not seeing
shifts in policy or emphasis, but seismic changes.
-- Click on headline to read the rest of this
story by Troy Marshall
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 Actual feedlot performance data clearly shows
performance always pays. Recent data on over 100,000 head of steers
demonstrates today’s ideal steer gains 3.5 lbs. or more per day,
finishes at 1,400 lbs. and qualifies for additional premiums paid for
high quality carcasses.
To read the entire white paper, click here. >>>
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The big news this week was that JBS restructured to shed its
ownership stake in cattle in Five Rivers feedyards. Five Rivers was also
restructured, essentially becoming a custom feedyard operation
overnight.
-- Click on headline to read the rest of this
story by Troy Marshall
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I absolutely love this time of year; it’s a great feeling taking
cows to grass, especially when the grass is green and growing!
My wife has been urging me to get the cows to grass for weeks now.
That’s partly because we’ve had great spring moisture and a lot of
grass, but probably mostly because it would free up time to work on a
lot of unfinished projects.
Personally, I like to wait to turn out bulls because I want to give
every cow every chance to get AI-bred. Still, as the kids get older, I
get more inclined to go to grass earlier, too, because they are growing
up so fast.
We received a slew of graduation announcements this spring. With about
half of them, I found myself saying, “He or she can't be graduating. I
remember when they were just waist-high.” It all just goes by so very
fast.
It’s now June and the kids are home and there are pigs to rinse,
horses to ride, heifers to blow, camps to attend and shows to
participate in. Yes, I'm a full blown 4-H dad, not necessarily living
vicariously through my kids, but rather clinging passionately to every
moment I can spend with them.
Before I had a family of my own, I envisioned myself becoming a John
Wayne version of Donald Trump (try to picture that for a moment). Now,
I'm a Hallmark TV channel junky, who loves listening to a kid talk about
his dream of winning a new buckle, and wanting to do everything in my
power to help him earn it.
Cows, horses and the almighty dollar are pretty darn cool, but going to
grass is always a reminder to me that priorities are so very important.
Maybe that high-dollar herd bull will sire that next donor female. But,
if not, those “smores” cooked over the bonfire will still be pretty
darned good.
-- Troy Marshall
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The Montana Alternative Energy Resources Organization’s (AERO)
2009 Farm Tours schedule features grass-fed beef and dairy cattle,
orchard fruits, and dryland grains and oilseeds. Tours planned include:
- June 20 – Sabo Ranch, Harrison, MT. Owned by Mark and Jenny
Sabo, the ranch raises grass-fed, natural beef, dairy cattle, pastured
poultry, and spring pigs. The Sabos family's straw-bale home is
completely off the electrical grid and the family eats vegetables
year-round, grown in their straw-bale insulated, chicken-heated
greenhouse. Tour begins at 11 a.m. and is free to the public.
- July 7 – Home Acres Orchard, Stevensville, MT. Owned by Kurt
Wellborne and Pam Clevenger, Home Acres has over 2,500 fruit trees.
- July 22 – Bob Quinn's dryland farm Big Sandy, MT. Tour includes
six expert speakers, including Quinn, four researchers, and Dave
Christensen, whose specialty corn is grown on the farm. Tour highlights
will include production and crushing of oilseeds, diversified dryland
cropping, including wheat, camelina, and dryland vegetables.
Registration is required for all three tours. For directions and info,
or to register, call 406-443-7272 or email AERO@aeromt.org.
-- Jonda Crosby, jcrosby@aeromt.org
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 More Pounds without Bigger
Cows
Cattle producers need every edge in today’s tough economy. Get more
pounds of calf to sell by using Gelbvieh or Balancer bulls on those
British-based cows. The Gelbvieh-influenced heifer mates give you the
benefits of a crossbred cow without a larger mature cow size, according
to MARC data. Get more at www.smartcross.org
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Results from the Census of Agriculture have been published at the
watershed level by USDA's National Agricultural Statistics Service
(NASS). The new watershed publication presents ag data that conforms to
geographic boundaries, rather than state and county boundaries.
In the new publication, NASS reports selected data from the 2007 Census
of Agriculture according to watershed boundaries set by the U.S.
Geological Survey. The info is available for all 20 major water sources
in the U.S., as well as for each of the 376 water basins.
Info from the 2002 Census of Agriculture is published alongside the 2007
Census results to demonstrate changes in land use, production practices
and livestock distribution over the past five years. For more info,
visit www.agcensus.usda.gov or
call 800-727-9540.
-- USDA release
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A Webcast video featuring a group of ag economists from the southern
region will be available June 12 as a means of helping producers develop
strategies to reduce risk during times of economic uncertainty.
“Given the recent economic decline, turmoil in the financial markets
and the uncertainty about recovery, we felt this would be a good time to
deliver a wide-reaching message,” says Steven Klose, Texas AgriLife
Extension Service economist, who will moderate the event.
“Managing Risk in a Turbulent Economy,” will be available at 3 p.m.
CST from the Auburn Extension host site at wms.aces.edu/accordent/.
The program will look at “Managing in Changing Markets” with John
Anderson, Mississippi State University; and “Financial Management”
with Danny Klinefelter, Texas AgriLife Extension Service economist.
-- Texas AgriLife Extension release
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BEEF magazine’s “2009 State of the Industry Report” is
now available at beefmagazine.com/BEEF_SOI_2009.pdf.
Prepared by Shane Ellis, Iowa State University Extension livestock
economist, the 14-page report looks at demand factors, inventory issues,
prices and profitability in the industry, industry structure, prices and
productivity. It’s a great overview of the U.S beef industry as well
as a handy and concise reference for every cattleman’s library.
-- Joe Roybal
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The Colorado State University (CSU) hurricane forecast team predicts
a slightly below-average 2009 Atlantic basin season based on a
cooler-than-normal tropical Atlantic and the greater potential for a
weak El Nino during the bulk of the hurricane season.
The team now anticipates 11 named storms forming in the Atlantic basin
between June 1 and Nov. 30. Five of the storms are predicted to become
hurricanes, and of those five, two are expected to develop into major
hurricanes with sustained winds of 111 mph or greater.
The scientists reduced their forecast from April's prediction of 12
named storms, six hurricanes and two major hurricanes. Long-term
averages are 9.6 named storms, 5.9 hurricanes and 2.3 major
hurricanes/year.
Jim Rouiller, senior business meteorologist and tropical storm expert at
Planalytics, agrees with the forecast. He says the major factors that
lead to an active hurricane season are indicating a higher probability
that the U.S. will experience a less active season than 2008.
Roullier says cooling sea surface temperatures, higher barometric
pressure readings, increased wind shear because of El Nino that will cut
the top off of developing storms and increased hot, dusty winds blowing
off the Sahara desert into the Atlantic ocean all add up to fewer storms
this hurricane season.
According to the CSU forecast team, "The probability of a major
hurricane making landfall along the U.S. coastline is 48% compared with
the last-century average of 52%." The hurricane forecast team also
predicts a 28% chance that a major hurricane will make landfall on the
U.S. East Coast, including the Florida Peninsula (the long-term average
is 31%) and a 28% chance that a major hurricane will make landfall on
the Gulf Coast from the Florida Panhandle west to Brownsville (the
long-term average is 30%).
Probabilities of tropical storm-force, hurricane-force and major
hurricane-force winds occurring at specific locations along the U.S.
East and Gulf Coasts within a variety of time periods are posted on the
forecast team's Landfall Probability website. The site provides U.S.
landfall probabilities for 11 regions and 205 individual counties along
the U.S. coastline from Brownsville, Texas, to Eastport, Maine. Access
the site at www.e-transit.org/hurricane.
The forecasters advise coastal residents not to change their hurricane
preparedness measures because of a less active seasonal forecast since
major hurricanes can devastate coastal communities in less active
seasons. “Remember Andrew,” Roullier says. “Andrew was the only
significant storm of that season. It only takes one.”
-- Burt Rutherford
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The chain will not be broken.
The food chain in America is not about hide color. It’s about quality,
it’s about passion, it’s about people making a life-long investment
to feed a global population of more than six billion people. Our food
chain begins with an Angus genetic supplier in the nation’s
breadbasket and ends with a satisfied eating experience from the family
dinner table to the Waldorf=Astoria. The strength of our food chain
depends on the quality product with sustainable value from the pasture
to the center of the plate.
Angus, the power of people and progress.
www.angus.org
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With mandatory country of origin labeling (MCOOL), the U.S. could
not have upset its neighbors at a more critical time. After being
implemented seven months ago, MCOOL took full effect in March. Even
before that, it was impacting the marketing of Canadian- and
Mexican-born cattle and Canadian hogs into the U.S. Now both countries
have vowed to do something about it. Hence Canada's filing of a new
complaint against MCOOL with the World Trade Organization (WTO).
-- Click on headline to read the rest of this
story by BEEF Contributing Editor Steve Kay
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Two unique and successful livestock farms will host a July 7
sustainable ag tour sponsored by University of Illinois (UI) Extension.
“Soil and pasture development are fundamental components of each
farm’s operation, growth and success – reinforcing that good food
comes from good soil,” says Roger Larson, director of the UI
Extension’s Peoria County unit office.
The tour begins at 9 a.m. at Meadow Haven Farm. The operation raises
certified organic grass-fed beef and pastured poultry – 185 head of
cattle, 3,000 chickens and 250 turkeys, orchard and alley cropping for
small farm production.
At 11 a.m., the tour moves to the Graze N’ Grow operation, which
raises Katahdin sheep. It sells and delivers lambs “on the hoof” to
an ethnically diverse customer base, much of it to the Hispanic, Muslim
and Greek population.
The tour officially ends at 1:30 p.m. but visitors can stay for an
informal tour of Meadow Haven Farms’ geothermal house and orchard,
concluding at 3 p.m.
Other dates in the Illinois 2009 sustainable ag tour include:
- Aug. 13 – creative community co-op farming, Basu Natural
Farms, Pembroke;
- Aug. 15 – raising elk and innovative farming, Mackinaw Valley Elk
Farm and Blue Schoolhouse Farm, Congerville;
- Sept. 22 – fresh fruits and vegetables, River Front Berry Farm,
Martinton.
Registration (at least one week in advance) is $20/person for each tour,
and includes lunch. To register, go to: webs.extension.uiuc.edu/registration/default.cfm.
-- University of Illinois Extension
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Investors are starting to return to agricultural land as a home for
their investment dollars, says Lee Vermeer, vice president of real
estate operations at Farmers National Company (FNC), the nation's
leading agricultural real estate and farm and ranch management company.
-- Click on headline to read the rest of this
release from FNC news
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Brazilian packer JBS S.A. announced last Friday the restructuring of
its ownership of Five Rivers Cattle Feeding, which it acquired when it
bought Smithfield Beef Group last October. Five Rivers operates 10
feedlots and boasts an annual capacity of 1.5 million head of cattle.
Ownership of Five Rivers afforded JBS access to a steady supply of
finished cattle, plus the capability to customize feeding programs for
customers. But full ownership presented challenges that included the
financial risk of feeding cattle, as well as exposure under growing
legislative pressure to regulate packer ownership of cattle.
Thus, JBS split ownership of Five Rivers with J&F Oklahoma, with JBS USA
owning the feedlot operation and J&F the cattle. Under the new
structure, JBS Five Rivers, a subsidiary of JBS USA, now owns 10
feedlots, while J&F will own up to 800,000 head of cattle on feed and
pay JBS Five Rivers for the cost of feed and medicine at cost, plus a
yardage fee.
J&F also has agreed to maintain sufficient cattle on JBS Five Rivers'
yards to maintain 85% capacity at all times. J&F also agreed to sell to
JBS USA at least 500,000 cattle/year from 2009 through 2011, based on
USDA pricing and a grading grid identical to the grid used for third
parties.
-- Muriel Elizabeth Hayes
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“Making Money In Hard Times" is the theme for the K-State Beef
Conference set Aug. 13 in the Kansas State University (KSU) College of
Veterinary Medicine’s Frick Auditorium.
Headlining the meeting is beef producer and BEEF magazine
contributing editor Troy Marshall. His presentations, "Issues Facing the
Beef Industry" and "Opportunities Facing the Cow-Calf Producer," will
open and close the conference.
Other presentation topics include:
- Replacements: Raise them or buy them? – Sandy Johnson, KSU
animal scientist.
- Animal welfare: It´s your business! – Dan Thomson, KSU Beef
Cattle Institute.
- Management strategies affecting calf marketability – Karl
Harborth, KSU animal scientist; and Lee Schulz and Kevin Dhuyvetter, KSU
ag economists.
- Options to extend the grazing season: cool-season annuals – Stacy
Gunther, University of Arkansas animal scientist.
- Options to extend the grazing season: Crop residues – Rick
Funston, University of Nebraska animal scientist.
- Mineral needs to complement ethanol by-product feeding – Justin
Waggoner, KSU animal scientist.
- Managing price risk in cow-calf operations – Dhuyvetter.
Registration begins at 8 a.m., with the program starting at 9.
Registration is $60, due by July 31, and includes refreshments, noon
meal and conference materials. For more info or to register, visit:
www.asi.ksu.edu/beefconference
or contact Linda Siebold at 785-532-1281 or lsiebold@ksu.edu.
-- KSU Research and Extension
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Although the large round bales reduce the labor required when
handling hay, hay stored outside can have significant storage losses,
says Clyde Lane, University of Tennessee Extension.
Research shows the method of storage has a major influence on the amount
of forage that is lost. In fact, data from a hay storage demonstration
in Moore County, TN, that looked at hay losses using six methods of
storage found that large round bales weighed and stored in June with
reweighing being done in January fared this way:
- Stored on the ground with no cover, 37% loss.
- Stored on tires with no cover, 29% loss.
- Stored on the ground and covered, 29% loss.
- Stored on tires and covered, 8% loss.
- Net wrapped and on the ground, 19% loss.
- Stored in the barn, 6% loss.
Losses can be significant, with the greatest losses occurring when the
hay was stored on the ground and not covered. The data support the idea
the losses occur both from moisture getting to the top and bottom of
bales.
Producers should strive to store hay in a barn if possible. The next
best option is storage outside with the hay lifted off the ground and
covered. Do not store hay on the ground or under trees, Lane advises.
-- Clyde Lane, University of Tennessee Extension
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The World Organization for Animal Health (OIE) adopted a resolution
last Friday lifting cattle age limits for beef exports and imports with
regard to BSE, a move likely to strengthen U.S. pressure on Japan to
import beef from older cattle.
Under standards set by the global livestock industry watchdog, OIE, beef
exports and imports had been limited to boneless meat from cattle
younger than 30 months old. The resolution, adopted at an OIE general
session, lifts the restriction, paving the way for exports and imports
of boneless beef from cattle of all ages.
Japan has limited U.S. beef imports to cattle 20 months or younger and
opposed the lifting of the age limit. With the adoption of the
resolution, the U.S. is expected to strengthen its pressure on Japan to
open its market more to U.S. beef.
Japan currently requires beef from domestically grown cattle aged 21
months and older to be tested for BSE. The possible relaxation of the
mandatory testing standards is an "agenda under consideration" for the
Japanese government.
The government is closely watching the response of consumers, and the
adoption of the resolution may affect the relaxation issue.
-- Muriel Elizabeth Hayes
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Just 35 years ago, Argentina was the world's biggest exporter of
beef. Today, it exports almost no beef and, for the first time in
history, may have to import up to 1 million tons of beef next year, most
likely from neighboring Uruguay, which still has a healthy beef
industry.
The country was built on the beef trade, and Argentines lead the world
in beef consumption – 176 lbs./person/year. But Argentine government
policies have hampered beef exports, while the lure of soy and other
grains convinced many long-time cattle ranchers to switch to grains.
-- Muriel Elizabeth Hayes
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Pasture conditions will play a critical role in U.S. cow slaughter
rates this summer, reports the CME Group in its June 2 Daily
Livestock Report. “While much of the focus recently has been on
U.S. dairy cow slaughter, thanks to the implementation of a dairy herd
buyback program, beef cow slaughter rates will be just as important,
especially when comparing to the big numbers that came to market a year
ago,” the report says.
Thus far, however, U.S. pasture conditions are in relatively good shape,
though USDA is raising some early warning flags. For the week ending May
31, USDA reported that 58% of U.S. pastures and ranges were in Good or
Excellent condition (the best since 1999); this compares with 51% for
both a year ago and for the five-year average.
The warning sign, however, was that pasture conditions declined slightly
from the prior week. Conditions typically tend to improve through mid to
late June before the summer heat begins to take a toll.
“Plentiful rains this spring have provided cow-calf operators with
some relief in an otherwise trying year, but it’s too early to tell
whether conditions have peaked or if we will see further improvement in
the next 2-3 weeks,” the report says. Particularly worrisome is the
condition of pastures in the Southern Plains, especially in Texas where
only 34% of pastures and ranges are listed as being in Good or Excellent
condition, compared to 42% a year ago, the report says.
As for U.S. cow slaughter rates, current supplies remain near year-ago
levels. In fact, the sharp decline in U.S. beef cow slaughter has thus
far more than offset the increase in dairy slaughter.
-- CME Group
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Among other fallout of the current economic crisis, Russian
President Dmitry Medvedev is concerned about falling cattle numbers in
his country and has called on the country’s Ag Ministry to deal with
the problem.
"The number of cattle in our country has begun declining very sharply in
recent years and no businessmen could stop this trend as the number of
cattle continued to fall," he said at a meeting with members of the
Liberal Democratic Party of Russia at his Moscow residence.
Russian authorities have been forced to import a large number of cattle
and spent a great deal of money on this, he said. "Subsidized loans were
allocated for this. Each loan was essentially subsidized by the
government by 95%," he said.
As a result, Russia has managed to build a rather large number of
facilities to raise cattle for meat and milk. "The main goal now is to
make sure this doesn't stop during the crisis," Medvedev said.
-- Muriel Elizabeth Hayes
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A study by the National Institutes of Health and the American
Association of Retired Persons concluded there is no link between a high
intake of meat and increased risk of breast cancer.
The study led by Geoffrey C. Kabat at the Albert Einstein College in New
York and reported in the International Journal of Cancer,
followed 120,755 post-menopausal women who responded to questions about
their food selections and methods of cooking. Although 3,818 cases of
invasive breast cancer were ultimately identified among the women in the
study, there was no evidence of a connection to red meat consumption,
the researchers said.
The researchers concluded "results of this large prospective cohort of
post-menopausal women do not support the hypothesis that a high intake
of meat, red meat, processed meat, meat cooked at high temperatures, or
meat mutagens is associated with increased risk of breast cancer."
-- TCFA newsletter
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Renowned livestock handling expert Temple Grandin will deliver a
livestock-handling presentation at South Dakota Secretary of Agriculture
Bill Even’s farm near Humboldt on June 11. The free event begins at 10
a.m.
A professor of animal science at Colorado State University, Grandin has
built a worldwide reputation as a livestock handling facilities
designer. In North America, almost half of all slaughter cattle are
handled using the center track restrainer system she designed. She has
appeared on numerous television shows, been featured in various
magazines, and had interviews broadcast on National Public Radio.
Grandin has authored over 300 articles in scientific journals and
livestock periodicals on animal handling, welfare, and facility design
and is the author of "Thinking in Pictures," "Livestock Handling and
Transport," "Genetics and the Behavior of Domestic Animals," and "Humane
Livestock Handling."
Even’s farm is located at 26243 456th Ave., 4.5 miles south of
Humboldt on the west side of the road.
-- South Dakota Department Of Agriculture
release
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Switchgrass is a native warm-season pasture grass that’s difficult
to graze if not managed correctly, says Bruce Anderson, University of
Nebraska-Lincoln Extension forage specialist.
It's a challenge because switchgrass becomes stemmy, mature and
unpalatable to cattle if not grazed by late June or early July. Thus,
switchgrass must be grazed before seedheads and stems develop, Anderson
says, a time when it is palatable and nutritious.
“Even if you have other pasture available, it’s better to graze
switchgrass when it’s ready rather than let it get stemmy,” Anderson
says. If this does happen, however, he advises cutting the switchgrass
for hay and then grazing its regrowth 6-8 weeks later.
There are two good methods to graze switchgrass, he says. One is to
start when switchgrass is about 10-in. tall and use the right number of
animals to keep the grass between 8 to 16 in.
But, since predicting growth rate of switchgrass in order to stock it
correctly is difficult, Anderson says he prefers a second method.
“When switchgrass gets about 1-ft. tall, stock it heavily enough to
graze it down to about 6 in. in 2-3 weeks. In good growing conditions,
this could take several cows per acre. Then move to a different
pasture.”
He advises coming back to the switchgrass if it regrows to at least 1
ft. tall., which probably will take 6 weeks. “Be sure to leave 6-8 in.
of growth going into winter to keep the stand healthy,” Anderson says.
-- Bruce Anderson, Nebraska Extension forage
specialist
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Nebraska State Veterinarian Dennis Hughes reports that the Nebraska
Department of Agriculture and USDA have discovered a beef herd that has
tested positive for bovine tuberculosis (TB).
State and federal officials are currently in the process of working with
the producer, who has been cooperating with the two agencies. The herd,
which is under quarantine, is undergoing herd testing and an
epidemiological investigation.
“The testing of these animals will take a significant amount of
time,” Hughes says. “We will be working to determine the source of
the infection and the extent of the spread of the disease. Neighboring
premises are being contacted to determine if the disease has spread
beyond the original premise.”
For more info on TB in Nebraska, go to www.agr.state.ne.us/division/bai/tuberculosis.htm.
-- Nebraska Department of Agriculture release
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USDA Secretary Tom Vilsack announced $42,288,000 in American
Recovery and Reinvestment Act (ARRA) funding for watershed projects.
-- Click on headline to read the rest of this
release from NRCS news
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The use of DNA technology in beef cattle will be addressed at a June
22 conference at the U.S. Meat Animal Research Center (USMARC) in Clay
Center, NE. Open to the public, attendees of this free meeting will
learn about the history of DNA technology in beef production, its
current status and where it’s headed.
For example, DNA technology currently is used to test whether animals
carry genetic defects, but it can also provide a glimpse of an animal's
genetic potential for growth – a technology that is still developing,
says Matt Spangler, University of Nebraska-Lincoln (UNL) Extension beef
genetics specialist. Multistate collaborative research on the use of DNA
technology in beef cattle will be discussed at the meeting.
Sponsored by UNL Extension, University of California-Davis (UC-Davis)
Extension, University of Kentucky (UK) Extension, and the National Beef
Cattle Evaluation Consortium (NBCEC), the meeting begins at noon with a
lunch and ends at 5 p.m.
Speakers include Spangler; Darrh Bullock, UK Extension beef genetics
specialist; Alison Van Eenennaam, UC-Davis Extension animal genomics and
biotechnology specialist; John Pollak, NBCEC director, Cornell
University; and Mark Thallman, USMARC research scientist.
Attendees should contact Spangler at 402-472-6489 to RSVP for the lunch.
-- UN-L beef genetics specialist
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The Western Resources Legal Center (WRLC), the nation’s only
hands-on training program specializing in legal advocacy for natural
resource users, will represent the Public Lands Council (PLC) on a case
involving the Bureau of Land Management (BLM), PLC says.
A release says WRLC will assist PLC to intervene on behalf of BLM on a
case brought against BLM by environmental groups. The case challenges
BLM range, mineral development and vegetation treatment decisions in
Idaho and Nevada under the National Environmental Policy Act, Clean
Water Act, Federal Land Policy and Management Act and other statutes for
failure to adequately consider the impact of these decisions on sage
grouse habitat.
“BLM is tasked with meeting its responsibilities to wildlife while
still supporting ranching,” says Jeff Eisenberg, PLC executive
director. “Its decisions on the sage grouse habitat reflect that dual
priority. If these decisions are overturned, it could harm western
ranchers and their ability to raise cattle for our nation.”
“This case affects millions of acres of land and many ranching
families in Idaho and Nevada,” says Caroline Lobdell, WRLC executive
director. “Not only is it an important case, but it also gives our
students critical experience in federal land management decisions under
conventional environmental statutes, and more obscure provisions such as
appropriation riders.”
WRLC’s primary purpose is to provide law students with an opportunity
to develop practical legal skills and specific knowledge of natural
resources and environmental laws through the legal representation of
natural resource users.
“We are very excited to have WRLC on our case,” says Eisenberg.
“Their assistance will be crucial in securing a favorable decision for
America’s farmers and ranchers.”
-- PLC release
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The global recession has affected all sectors of the economy,
including ag. According to Jason Henderson, vice president of the Kansas
City Fed and executive of its Omaha branch, current forecasts suggest an
economic recovery in 2010, hinging on renewed strength in food and fuel
consumption.
“Current U.S. economic forecasts point to some level of stabilization
in second half 2009 and a moderate rebound in 2010,” he writes in
The Main Street Economist. In fact, the most recent projections
from the Federal Reserve show the economy posting a “relatively
tame” 2.5% to 3.3% rebound in 2010. World economies are expected to
follow a similar path, he says.
“A farm rebound will depend heavily on the strength of the rebound
both in the U.S. and globally. Domestically, stronger U.S. incomes would
help increase restaurant sales and meat consumption. Moreover, rising
incomes and stronger demand would support U.S. fuel consumption and
ethanol demand. Stronger fuel demand would push up gasoline prices and
contribute to higher ethanol prices, which in turn would place upward
pressure on corn prices.”
Worldwide, he says a stronger global economy and rising incomes in
developing countries would increase the demand for U.S. ag products.
“As the global economy strengthens and developing countries rebound,
so will the demand for foods, especially proteins for which American
producers are highly competitive.”
In sum, Henderson says the global recession has slashed the demand for
ag products. “Global demand for U.S. food products has fallen and
ethanol demand has declined. The timing and strength of a farm rebound
depends on a rebound in global food and fuel consumption. Thus, the U.S.
farm economy is expected to rebound in 2010, but the recovery may not
reach the record highs of 2008 any time soon.”
To read the complete article, go to www.kansascityfed.org/RegionalAffairs/MainStreet/MSE_0209.pdf.
-- Kansas City Fed release
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