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BEEF'S COW CALF WEEKLY    February 5, 2010  |  A PENTON MEDIA PUBLICATION
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    Table Of Contents
> Inventory Lowest Since '59; Demand's The Wild Card
> HSUS Section
> Toyota’s Troubles Offers Us A Marketing Lesson
> "Jack Bauer" Stung In Cattle Scam
> $234.5 Million In U.S. Ag Export Aid Announced
> Beef Industry Hopeful For 2010 Recovery
> Brazilian Group Plans Two Feedlots In Argentina
> California Ranch Takes Top Stewardship Honors
> Cattle Supply Decline to Continue in 2010
> Forest Service, BLM Retain 2009 Grazing Fees
> Gasoline, Diesel Prices Down Again This Week
> Join BEEF At The World Ag Expo Next Week
> South Korea Confirms Sixth FMD Outbreak
> Temple Grandin HBO Movie Debuts Tomorrow Night
> U.S. Ag Companies Looking To Diversify
> USDA Kills NAIS; Goes Back To The Drawing Board
> Winter Temps May Affect Calf Birth Weights
> Wyoming Sets Feb. 17 Rangeland Monitoring School

    Our Perspective
    Inventory Lowest Since '59; Demand's The Wild Card

USDA’s cattle-inventory report showed the lowest cattle inventory since 1959. The U.S. cowherd has declined in 11 of the last 14 years, making this one of the longest single periods of liquidation in history.
-- Click on headline to read the rest of this story by Troy Marshall



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      HSUS Section

The Humane Society of the U.S. (HSUS) has become such a powerful player in the attack on animal agriculture that one feels obligated to give the group its own column heading. This group has the budget and apparently still enjoys tremendous credibility despite pursuing an agenda that in some instances is even more extreme than that of People for the Ethical Treatment of Animals. Recently, HSUS announced it had “persuaded” the Sonic chain to begin using range chicken eggs, and crate-free pork. And, now it turned its sights on the really big boys, like McDonalds. Additionally, HSUS appears headed toward putting its own initiative on the ballot in Ohio, which aims to make the animal-care board created last year by popular vote in the state of Ohio adopt HSUS standards.
-- Troy Marshall

      Toyota’s Troubles Offers Us A Marketing Lesson

By now everyone’s heard about the gas-pedal and braking problems in Toyota vehicles that have forced the recall of about 1 million vehicles and significantly impacted Toyota sales as the Japanese automaker has stopped merchandising eight car models due to the problems. Of course, the short-term damage to Toyota is significant but it pales in comparison to the erosion of Toyota’s perception of quality. It’s no overstatement to say that Toyota’s future literally rests on how it handles these recalls and rebuilds its brand equity.

The beef industry faces similar situations with its E-coli recalls, animal welfare anomalies and events like BSE. Our response to such events is critical. The international brand for U.S. beef has been severely damaged by BSE and our reluctance to deal proactively with traceback.

If Toyota doesn’t act aggressively to reassure consumers, its loss in market share will be permanent or at least a long time in recovering. Similarly, the message we send in the near future will affect beef demand for a long time to come.
-- Troy Marshall



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      "Jack Bauer" Stung In Cattle Scam

Kiefer Sutherland, who plays Jack Bauer on the hit TV series "24," is among the victims of a cattle scam that cost him $869,000, reports recordnet.com. According to a news release from the San Joaquin (CA) County District Attorney's Office, the actor was allegedly swindled by Michael Wayne Carr, a competitive steer roping promoter and cattle manager from Linden, CA.

Carr is to be arraigned on Feb. 8 on 12 felony charges that could net him 18 years in a state prison.

According to the District Attorney's office, Carr took the money from Sutherland on an agreement that he would buy steers in Mexico with that money and sell them at a "huge" profit to prearranged buyers in the U.S. But prosecutors have found no evidence that Carr ever bought or sold the steers Sutherland supposedly financed.

For more on this story, go to www.recordnet.com/
--recordnet.com

      $234.5 Million In U.S. Ag Export Aid Announced

USDA has allocated $234.5 million to 70 U.S. trade organizations to help promote U.S. food and agricultural products overseas. Among them is a total of almost $17.5 million to the U.S. Meat Export Federation.

"In today's highly competitive international markets, we must provide our exporters with the resources they need to compete overseas during the 21st century," says USDA Secretary Tom Vilsack. "When you consider the current global financial crisis, increasing production in key competitor countries and aggressive use of export promotion tools by our competitors, USDA's market development programs are more important than ever."

The funding was allocated under the Market Access Program (MAP) and the Foreign Market Development (FMD) Cooperator Program, both administered by USDA's Foreign Agricultural Service (FAS). Listings of FY 2010 MAP and FMD program allocations are available at www.usda.gov/wps/portal/.

Funding priority is given to organizations that represent an entire industry or are nationwide in membership and scope. Program activities focus on reducing market impediments, improving the processing capabilities of importers, modifying restrictive regulatory codes and standards in foreign markets, and identifying new markets or uses for U.S. products.

For more info on FAS market development programs, visit www.fas.usda.gov/mos/marketdev.asp.
-- USDA news release



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SEEDSTOCK NEWSLETTER BARN – 29 Genetic Newsletters – Under One Roof.

The Seedstock Barn is a multi-breed collection of breeder and association newsletters assembled in one convenient location. Newsletters provide valuable information into personal producer philosophy and herd management tips. Producer and association newsletters foster the sharing of educational and best practice information vital to improving our most important product, BEEF, in an effort to keep our most important customer, the CONSUMER.
      Beef Industry Hopeful For 2010 Recovery

The cattle industry should be on the mend in 2010, says Purdue University Extension economist Chris Hurt, as available supplies of beef drop in the U.S. and exports increase.

Hurt says the national herd continues to shrink; beef-cow numbers on Jan. 1 were estimated at 31.4 million head, down another 1% from last year, and down 5% over the past four years. Meanwhile dairy-cow numbers were down 3% in 2009 as a result of large financial losses in the dairy sector.

Beef-heifer retention is also down 2%, indicating beef-cow numbers will continue to decline in 2010. Meanwhile, dairy replacements were up 2%, most likely due to the dairy industry’s higher replacement rate, Hurt says.

Hurt says beef production and the amount of beef available per person in the U.S. will decline in 2010. With smaller cow numbers, the 2010 calf crop is estimated to be down 1-2% and will be the foundation for smaller production.

USDA currently expects beef exports to rebound by 10% in 2010. If so, this will mean beef exports at 2.0 billion lbs. will have reached 81% of the pre-BSE record set in 2003.

Trade improvement and U.S. population growth mean per-capita availability of beef will be down 3% in 2010, while pork is expected to be down 4%. When chicken and turkey are included, there will be about 1% less meat and poultry per person in the U.S.

"The degree to which demand improves this year depends on the extent of the 2010 U.S. and world economic recovery. The U.S. economy has been in modest recovery since the summer of 2009. The expectation for 2010 is for the slow recovery to continue, but with unemployment continuing to remain high. Given that the weak economy had such negative impacts on cattle prices in 2009, it may be possible for even modest economic recovery, in the range of 3%, to have a surprisingly strong impact on rebounding cattle prices," Hurt says.

Hurt projects finished steers to average closer to $90/cwt. in 2010, reaching the low $90s by early spring and the high $80s to low $90s in the summer. Assuming continued improvement in the economy, prices in the fall could be in the very low $90s, he says.

Meanwhile, strengthening fed-cattle prices and moderation in feed prices should push calf prices to the $115-$120 range in the second-half of 2010.

"This year is expected to be one of healing for a battered beef industry as smaller supplies and recovering incomes swing cattle prices upward. As the headlines indicate, a slow economic recovery is probable, but not yet assured. Thus, most cattle producers will approach this year both with optimism, but also with caution. It is also clear that their bankers feel the same way," Hurt said.
-- LeAnn Ormsby, Purdue University

      Brazilian Group Plans Two Feedlots In Argentina

Argentina’s meat processing group Quickfood, part of the Brazilian corporation Marfrig, has purchased 150 hectares in the Argentina province of Cordoba to establish one of the largest feedlots in the country.

The $20-million (US) project will have a feeding capacity of 22,000 cattle and is part of the Brazilian corporation’s expansion in Argentina. A second feedlot complex is planned for the province of Buenos Aires.

“This is good for cattle ranching; the feedlot is scheduled to begin to operate this year and together with the planned feedlot in Buenos Aires is expected to cover 15% of the Argentine annual demand for cattle,” says Miguel Gorelik, Quickfood spokesman.

Argentina is historically one of the world’s leading exporters of beef but the government has restricted exports to ensure the domestic market supply. Argentines are the world’s top per-capita consumers of beef.

Quickfood’s operation comes at a crossroads in Argentine cattle farming where intense drought and better profit opportunities in agriculture have considerably reduced Argentina’s cattle herd and the land dedicated to livestock.

Argentina’s herd traditionally has ranged from 55-58 million head but is now below 50 million. Plus, slaughter statistics show an abnormal percentage of cows, which means fewer calves in the coming years.

Marfrig believes that having its own feedlots will ensure its future activities in Argentina with a steady year-long supply of cattle. In Uruguay, Marfrig in the last few years purchased the leading abattoirs, all of them certified to export to U.S., the European Union and the Far East.
-- MercoPress



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BEEF is also on Twitter, a micro-blogging site that provides brief status updates on people, groups or organizations. Users can "follow" people or groups, including news organizations that they want to keep up-to-date with. Follow BEEF on Twitter!!
    California Ranch Takes Top Stewardship Honors

Leavitt Lake Ranches of Vina, CA, was named the 2009 National Environmental Stewardship Award winner last week during the 2010 Cattle Industry Annual Convention in San Antonio. Leavitt Lake Ranches is owned and operated by Darrell Wood, wife Callie, son Ramsey and daughter Dallice, and has family ranching ties dating back to the 1860s.
-- Click on headline to read the rest of this release by National Cattlemen’s Foundation

      Cattle Supply Decline to Continue in 2010

Cattle supplies in 2010 should decline another 1-1.5%, and beef demand will continue to be impacted by a weak economy and high unemployment. Still, 2010 overall “should be a better year for the beef industry.”

That's the word from Randy Blach, Cattle-Fax CEO, to attendees of the 2010 Cattle Industry Convention in San Antonio last week.

Blach says demand remains the biggest challenge for the beef industry in 2010. “Though the supply situation is very bullish, demand must stabilize in order for prices to turn significantly higher.”

Fed-cattle slaughter totals are expected to be down 2% in 2010, and cow-slaughter totals should decline by nearly 9%. Average carcass weights are forecast to increase slightly and beef production is projected to be down 2.8%. Per capita net beef supplies are expected to be down 4% due to an expected increase in beef exports and smaller beef production.

In 2010, U.S. beef exports are forecast to increase to South Korea, and to a lesser extent Japan and Vietnam. U.S. beef exports in 2010 are expected to rise by about 8% over 2009.

In terms of feedgrains, total U.S. corn production could decrease, as U.S. corn supplies are record large at an estimated 14.83 billion bu. for the 2009/10 marketing year. U.S. soybean supplies are up over 10% compared to last year – the second highest level on record – while soybean acreage is expected to be near 79 million acres.

Spot corn futures prices are forecast to average near $3.75/bu. in 2010, near steady with 2009, and the combination of bumper corn and soybean crops, as well as the sharp decline in winter wheat acreage, has lessened the need for an acreage battle this spring.

Cattle-Fax is a Denver-based market analysis and info organization.
-- Cattle-Fax release



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Profitability in a Turn-Around Economy – February 10, 2010 at the World Ag Expo in Tulare, CA.
BEEF magazine has put together a lineup of speakers, that will help cattlemen not only understand the challenges facing cattle producers in 2010 and beyond, but plan to succeed in a business faced with new and different challenges. The BEEF Seminars are sponsored by Avitrol, Allflex USA and Kooima Company
      Forest Service, BLM Retain 2009 Grazing Fees

The federal grazing fee for 2010 will be $1.35/animal unit month (AUM) for public lands administered by the Bureau of Land Management (BLM) and $1.35/head month (HM) for lands managed by the Forest Service. The grazing fee for 2010 is the same as it was in 2009.

An AUM or HM – treated as equivalent measures for fee purposes – is the occupancy and use of public lands by one cow and her calf, one horse, or five sheep or goats for a month. The newly calculated grazing fee, determined by a congressional formula and effective on March 1, applies to nearly 18,000 grazing permits and leases administered by the BLM and more than 8,000 permits administered by the Forest Service.

The formula used for calculating the grazing fee was established by Congress in the 1978 Public Rangelands Improvement Act and has continued under a presidential Executive Order issued in 1986. Under that order, the grazing fee cannot fall below $1.35/AUM, and any increase or decrease can't exceed 25% of the previous year's level.

The annually determined grazing fee is computed by using a 1966 base value of $1.23/AUM or HM for livestock grazing on public lands in Western states. The figure is then calculated according to three factors – current private grazing land lease rates, beef cattle prices, and the cost of livestock production. In effect, the fee rises, falls, or stays the same based on market conditions, with livestock operators paying more when conditions are better and less when conditions have declined.

The $1.35/AUM/HM grazing fee applies to 16 Western states on public lands administered by the BLM and the Forest Service. This includes: Arizona, California, Colorado, Idaho, Kansas, Montana, Nebraska, Nevada, New Mexico, North Dakota, Oklahoma, Oregon, South Dakota, Utah, Washington and Wyoming. The Forest Service applies different grazing fees to national grasslands and to lands under its management in the Eastern and Midwestern states and parts of Texas. Learn more at www.fs.fed.us/news/2010/.

Meanwhile, the Center for Biological Diversity criticized retention of the 2009 rate, saying "the fee remains far below what the agencies spend to administer grazing permits, it remains far below market rates, and it remains far short of providing revenue needed to correct the severe ecological damage caused by livestock grazing."
-- Forest Service and CBD releases

      Gasoline, Diesel Prices Down Again This Week

For the third week in a row (week ending Feb. 1), the U.S. average price for regular gasoline at a retail declined, dropping 4¢ to $2.66/gal. Meanwhile, diesel was down for a third straight week, shedding 5¢ to $2.78.

While the retail gasoline price remains 77¢ above last year, the weekly average lost 4¢ on the East Coast ($2.69), the Midwest was down 6¢ to $2.56, the Gulf Coast was down 5¢ to $2.54, and the Rocky Mountains region was flat at $2.62. The West Coast and California each shaved 3¢ to $2.91 and $2.98, respectively.

At 54¢ above the year-ago price, diesel was down in all regions for the week. The East Coast shed 5¢ to $2.83/gal., while the Midwest and the Gulf Coast dropped 6¢ to $2.73 and $2.74, respectively, and the Rocky Mountains slipped 2¢ to $2.80. The West Coast and California fell 4¢ to $2.88 and $2.95, respectively.
-- U.S. Energy Information Administration

      Join BEEF At The World Ag Expo Next Week

If you're in the Tulare, CA, area next week, stop by and take in the one-day program of presentations that BEEF magazine will host during the World Ag Expo at the International Agri-Center.

BEEF is the official publication of the World Ag Expo, and on Feb. 10, BEEF editorial staff will host a lineup of speakers who not only will help producers understand the challenges facing them in 2010 and beyond, but provide insight into how to succeed in a business faced with those new and different challenges.

That 10 a.m. to 4 p.m., four-speaker program is free of charge and wraps around a free lunch. Here's what the program will include:

  • Steve Kay, editor and publisher of Cattle Buyer's Weekly and monthly author of BEEF magazine's “Meat Matters” column, will address the changing global beef industry.

  • Next, Gary Smith, Colorado State University distinguished professor and holder of the Ken and Myra Monfort endowed chair in meat science, will help cattlemen understand how beef system traceability will affect their business going forward.

  • Then, BEEF magazine's monthly “Market Advisor” columnist Harlan Hughes will dissect the biofuels economy and its effect on ranch country. You can read some of the North Dakota State University emeritus professor's thoughts on calf marketing in the coming decade.

  • And, Jim Robb, director of the Livestock Marketing Information Center in Denver, CO, will round out the four, one-hour presentations by providing a situation report and analysis of cow-calf and cattle-feeding economics.
While many of us will look back on 2009 as a year when just hanging on could be considered a victory, there is reason for optimism in 2010. Being positioned for that potential is important and that's what this special Tulare program is aimed at helping provide our readers.

I hope you'll join BEEF Senior Editor Burt Rutherford for what promises to be a greatly instructive program.
-- Joe Roybal

      South Korea Confirms Sixth FMD Outbreak

Nine cows at a farm in Pocheon, north of Seoul, tested positive for foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) last Saturday, South Korea Ag Ministry official Kim Dae-gyun says. All 81 cows on the farm were slaughtered as a precaution.

Quarantine workers were also slaughtering 77 cows and 13 deer on other farms near the latest outbreak as a precaution, the ministry says. The outbreak is about 2.4 miles from another farm in Pocheon where South Korea's first outbreak of FMD in eight years was reported.

South Korea has slaughtered more than 3,500 animals since that outbreak in an attempt to prevent the spread of the disease, Kim says. The disease last hit South Korea in 2002 when 160,000 pigs either died of the disease or were slaughtered to prevent its spread.
-- Taiwan News

    Temple Grandin HBO Movie Debuts Tomorrow Night

Temple Grandin, a two-hour biopic about the well-known animal behaviorist and designer of animal handling facilities, debuts tomorrow night at 8 p.m. (EST) on HBO. The high-budget production covers roughly two decades of Grandin’s life, following her development as an unresponsive autistic child through to her emergence as a leading designer of animal-handling systems.
-- Click on headline to read the rest of this story by Joe Roybal

      U.S. Ag Companies Looking To Diversify

As financial markets recover, mergers and acquisitions (M&A) in U.S. food and ag are likely to build in 2010, but antitrust issues are likely to drive companies to look for opportunities in adjacent sectors, says a new report from Rabobank.

In August, the Department of Justice (DOJ) and USDA announced a series of public workshops to explore competition issues in the U.S. ag industry. These workshops begin in March and aim to identify an appropriate role for antitrust and the regulatory enforcement in U.S. ag.

“The DOJ’s new stance is likely to see companies thinking twice before launching proposals that could face resistance,” says Bill Cordingley, managing director of Rabobank Food & Agribusiness Research and Advisory (FAR). Instead, he says U.S. ag companies will look for opportunities in adjacent sectors where DOJ is less likely to object based on anti-competitive grounds. “In fact, it could accelerate the trend toward industry convergence across sectors as corporations search for new avenues of growth and profitability that avoid triggering antitrust actions,” he says.

This involves U.S. ag firms looking for opportunities that unite their operations in ways that haven’t previously been attempted. For example:
  • The multi-species, multi-origin animal protein model, which is currently emerging, will be closely examined for high concentration in the beef, hog and poultry sectors.

  • Convergence is likely to continue between the grains, sugar and energy sectors with the ethanol sector being the focal point.

  • In the beverages sector, convergence between carbonated soft drinks, dairy, beer and spirits will be further explored.
“Companies faced with the ever-increasing need to leverage fixed-cost bases, drive for efficiencies and develop strategic competitive advantages, will seek out these opportunities to grow as the interest in M&A returns this year – despite a more aggressive approach by competition agencies that will present additional obstacles,” says Erin FitzPatrick, FAR assistant vice president.
-- Rabobank release

      USDA Kills NAIS; Goes Back To The Drawing Board

USDA has killed its beleaguered National Animal Identification System (NAIS) in favor of developing “a new, flexible framework for animal disease traceability in the U.S.” The framework, USDA says, “provides the basic tenets of an improved animal disease traceability capability in the U.S.” and includes:

  • The system will apply only to animals moved in interstate commerce;
  • It will be administered by the states and tribal nations to provide more flexibility;
  • It will encourage the use of lower-cost technology; and
  • It will be implemented transparently through federal regulations and the full rulemaking process.
In announcing the move yesterday, USDA Secretary Tom Vilsack lists a main goal as building “a collaborative process for shaping and implementing our framework for animal disease traceability.” He says USDA is “committed to working in partnership with States, Tribal Nations and industry in the coming months to address many of the details of this framework, and giving ample opportunity for farmers and ranchers and the public to provide us with continued input through this process.”

One of first steps is to convene a forum with animal health leaders for the States and Tribal Nations to initiate a dialogue about the possible ways of achieving the flexible, coordinated approach to animal disease traceability we envision, Vilsack says. Additionally, USDA will be revamping the Secretary’s Advisory Committee on Animal Health to address specific issues, such as confidentiality and liability.

See the full release at www.usda.gov/wps/portal/contentidonly.xml
Read more about this issue in the New York Times at www.nytimes.com/business/05livestock.html.
-- Joe Roybal

      Winter Temps May Affect Calf Birth Weights

Oklahoma State Extension reports on research that examined the effect of winter temperatures on calf birth weights.

A three-year study was conducted by University of Nebraska scientists to evaluate the effects of high and low air temperatures and wind chills during winter months on subsequent calf birth weights and calving difficulty of spring-born calves.

The greatest differences in monthly temperatures between years were found during December, January and February. Average temperatures for these three months increased 11° F. over the three years. Meanwhile, average calf birth weights decreased 11 lbs. (81 lbs. to 70 lbs.). A 1:1 ratio was observed.

Results indicate that cold temperatures influenced calf birth weight. Weather can’t be controlled; however, with below-average winter temperatures, larger birth weight calves and more calving difficulty may be expected in the spring.

Other data that may shed some light on this subject comes from Ohio State University in 1990. Birth weights of 172 fall-born calves and 242 spring-born calves were compared. These calves were the result of artificial-insemination matings using the same bulls and bred to similar crossbred cows.

The fall-born calves averaged 4.5 lbs. lighter at birth than their spring-born counterparts (77.7 lbs. vs. 82.2 lbs.). A possible explanation for this phenomenon is the changing of blood-flow patterns of cows gestating in hot weather vs. cold weather. In hot weather, blood is shunted away from internal organs toward outer extremities to dissipate heat, while the opposite is the case in very cold weather where blood flow is directed toward internal organs in an effort to conserve heat and maintain body temperature.

Researchers say this change in maternal blood flow may impact fetal growth in a small way, but result in a measurable difference.
-- Ron Torell, University of Nevada Extension livestock specialist

      Wyoming Sets Feb. 17 Rangeland Monitoring School

Rangeland Management School 201, offered by the Wyoming section of the Society for Range Management on Feb. 17 at the Dry Creek Hall in Bill, will cover key aspects about rangeland monitoring. Instructors will be University of Wyoming Cooperative Extension Service (UW CES) educators and USDA Forest Service personnel.

The program is a follow-up to the 101 School and includes sessions on how to develop monitoring objectives, tools and methods available, application of the data and what ecological sites are and their importance to monitoring and grazing management. There will also be presentations on matching the animal to the resource and low-stress animal handling and how to apply it to grazing management.

Registration is $20 and includes a proceedings, a copy of the Wyoming Rangeland Monitoring Guide and lunch. For more info, contact Blaine Horn at bhorn@uwyo.edu, or Michelle Huntington at michelle.huntington@wy.nacdnet.net.
-- UW CES news release

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