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BEEF STOCKER TRENDS

From the editors of BEEF Magazine
In the July 21, 2009 Issue
 
  Moving To Eliminate Ethanol Subsidy
  Load Position May Impact Health And Performance
  Seasonal Trend Should Support Prices
  Calendar Of Events
  Send Questions & Comments To...

Moving To Eliminate Ethanol Subsidy
Go figure.

Given the whole red state, blue state thing, plenty of cattle producers would have lost money betting that sensible legislation aimed at curtailing government ethanol subsidies would come from the East or Left Coasts. But it has, from both sides of the country.

Last Monday, Rep. Joseph Crowley (D-NY) and Rep. Mary Mack (R-CA) introduced the Affordable Food and Fuel for America Act in the House of Representatives. It aims to phase out both the blender’s tax credit and tariffs for corn-based ethanol within five years.

“For too long billions of taxpayer dollars have been used to incentivize (her word) corn ethanol, without getting needed results and causing numerous unintended consequences, like rising food prices, that don’t benefit our economy or our environment,” said Mack.

Of course, she’s also one of eight Republicans who voted in favor of cap and trade, but no need to square the logic of one with the other.

“After 30 years of support, corn-based ethanol is still reliant on government support to be commercially viable. It is time to allow it to compete on a level playing field, and to stop propping up one industry at the expense of another,” Gary Voogt, president of the National Cattlemen’s Association (NCBA), said Wednesday. “Soaring feed costs and government payments to the ethanol industry are hurting small businesses and family ranches. Cattle producers don’t ask for subsidies, just equal footing… The legislation introduced by Representatives Crowley and Mack allows for a market-based approach to our nation’s competing demands for corn, and helps us meet both our food and fuel needs.”

Stocker Management

Load Position May Impact Health And Performance
Add this to the potential criteria for sorting incoming stocker calves based on performance potential and health risk: calf location in the loaded trailer.

“Our current project reveals that the environment within a commercial transport carrier is not likely homogeneous. And, cattle position within the transport vehicle may result in differing health and performance outcomes,” say researchers at Kansas State University (KSU).

In this unique study spanning two years (May 2006 to May 2008), KSU researchers looked at how location within the trailers impacted the health and performance of 21 loads of calves assembled in the Southeast, commingled in Tennessee and shipped to the KSU Beef Stocker Research Unit west of Manhattan. Specifically, KSU researchers—Dale Blasi, Mark Epp and Brad White, DVM—looked at health and performance differences during 45-60 days of backgrounding ahead of pasture turn-out.

Read the full article >

Stocker Economics

Seasonal Trend Should Support Prices
Though typical as an adjective to describe anything remotely connected to commodity markets this past 18 months seems oxymoronic, price trends heading into fall should reflect the seasonality most folks are used to.

Mississippi State University agricultural economists John Anderson and John Riley pointed out last week that wholesale beef prices have followed a more typical season pattern since the beginning of the second quarter. Those prices peaked the last week of April and then declined by about 10% through the first week of July.

“This year's fed cattle prices are also basically consistent with typical seasonal behavior, at least so far,” say Anderson and Riley. Though the spring peak was later than seasonal norms, the subsequent decline is on par.

Anderson and Riley indexed beef and fed cattle prices for 2008 against averages for 2003 to 2007, which accounted for last year’s counter-seasonal juggernaut.

“A strict reading of the seasonal index would argue that fed cattle prices may have another dollar or two yet to fall in the next two weeks or so,” say Anderson and Riley. “Of course, if the seasonal behavior of prices was that accurate and reliable, we could all get rich trading on it.

“It is fair to say, consistent with normal seasonal price behavior and consistent with this year's supply situation, that prices will likely remain under pressure for another three or four weeks as adequate supplies of cattle meet tepid buying interest. Beyond that, tightening supplies set the stage for some price improvement; how much improvement will depend on how we fare on the demand side of things.”

For more of the analysis, see www.lmic.info/memberspublic/

Events

Calendar Of Events
July 21-22 – Nebraska Grazing Lands Coalition and South Dakota Grasslands Coalition Joint Bus Tour, Yankton, SD;jljessop@kennebectelephone.com

July 27-31 – Grazing Management Lectureship, King Ranch Institute for Ranch Management, Kingsville, TX; 361-593-5401 or krirm.tamuk.edu.

Aug. 3-5 – Texas A&M Beef Cattle Short Course, Texas A&M University, College Station, TX; contact Jason Cleere, 979-845-6931 or at beef.tamu.edu

Aug. 10-14 – John Armstrong Lectureship on Systems Thinking, King Ranch Institute for Ranch Management, Kingsville, TX; 361-593-5401 or krirm.tamuk.edu.

Aug. 13 – Beef Conference, Making Money on Hard Times, Kansas State University, Manhattan, KS, www.asi.ksu.edu/beefconference.

Aug. 21 – 23rd Annual Wheatland Stocker Conference, Cherokee Strip Conference Center, Enid, OK.

Aug. 25-27 – ID Info-Expo, Westin Crown Center, Kansas City, MO; 270-782-9798 or www.animalagriculture.org.

Aug. 29 – Missouri Beef Tour, south central Missouri; 573-882-4553 or 573-882-8154.

Sept. 24 – Beef Stocker Conference, Kansas State University, Manhattan, KS.

Oct. 23-24 – Mid-Atlantic Grass-Finished Livestock Conference, Holiday Inn Conference Center, Staunton, VA; 434-292-5331 or makenny@vt.edu

Contact

Send Questions & Comments To...

Wes Ishmael, Contributing Editor, BEEF Stocker Trends, at wesleysink@aol.com

Joe Roybal, Editor, BEEF magazine, at jroybal@beef-mag.com


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MARKETS

Cattle Prices Surge Ahead

Cattle won the tug-of-war between struggling beef prices and shorter supplies last week.

In fact, Friday opened with many analysts expecting fed cattle trade to hopefully gain a buck. As soon as the CME pit closed, though—August was up $2.90 for the week—feedlots were able to swap for $2 more at $84 in the Southern Plains. Early dressed sales in Nebraska were $3 higher at $132; a few live sales were up $1.50-$2.00 at $83-$84. In Iowa and Minnesota, live sales picked up $0.50 to $1.50, trading from $82 to $82.50; at $132 dressed sales were $2-$3 higher on the week.

Plus, according to analysts with the Agricultural Marketing Service (AMS), “Industry analysts were expecting higher volumes in the major feeding regions to come in with a $2 rise in the market. However, many feedyard managers resisted it as the nearby August live cattle contract closed at 86.37. Many did not want to give up that much basis and are content to carry cattle to next week.”

Though feeder and stocker cattle traded steady to $3 lower in the Southeast, Plains State auctions traded them at steady money to $2 higher than the previous week. And, feeder cattle futures were up for the week, too, $104.50-$104.72 for the nearest four months.

“Typically, cattle start moving to feed yards around the first of July, however with ample rains and only about one week(last week) of extremely uncomfortable hot weather, those runs at auctions have not materialized to their fullest extent just yet,” say AMS reporters.

The summary below reflects the week ended July 17 for Medium and Large 1 – 500- to 550-lb., 600- to 650-lb. (calves), and 700- to 750-lb. feeder heifers and steers (unless otherwise noted). The list is arranged in descending order by auction volume and represents sales reported in the weekly USDA National Feeder and Stocker Cattle Summary:

Click here for market prices >

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OUTLOOK

El Niño Continues To Develop

Whether or not you consider an El Niño positive or negative in your neck of the woods, it’s apparently on the way.

Scientists at the National Atmospheric and Oceanic Administration (NOAA) expect the latest El Niño—the periodic warming of central and eastern tropical Pacific waters—to continue developing with possible strengthening over the next several months. This particular global climate phenomenon occurs every 2-5 years and typically last about 12 months. The most recent occurred in 2006.

For the U.S., El Niño usually means less Atlantic hurricane activity, more moisture than normal in the Southwest and less wintry weather across the North. The extra moisture can also mean more storms in the South, as well as damaging storm along the West Coast.

Click here for more >

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NATIONAL STOCKER AWARD



Information on the 2009 award
Meet the past winners
Report on the first-ever National Stocker Survey
Download the 2009 National Stocker Award Nomination Form
Visit BeefStockerUSA.org

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