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BEEF STOCKER TRENDS

From the editors of BEEF Magazine
In the August 18, 2009 Issue
 
  86,000 More Dairy Cows To Town
  Farm Real Estate Values Decline
  Tackling A New Old BVDV Strain
  Dog Day Markets
  23rd Annual Wheatland Stocker Conference
  Deep South Stocker Conference
  Calendar Of Events
  Send Questions & Comments To...

News

86,000 More Dairy Cows To Town
If milk prices don’t climb, it’s not for lack of effort from dairy producers.

Cooperatives Working Together (CWT) announced recently it has tentatively accepted bids to retire another 86,710 dairy cows accounting for 1.8 billion lbs. of milk production. CWT’s most recent herd retirement completed last month removed 101,000 cows and 1.96 billion lbs. of milk production.

"These two summer 2009 herd retirements, combined with the USDA’s recent price support increases, should result in very positive movement in dairy farmers’ milk prices," said Jerry Kozak, president and CEO of the National Milk Producers Federation, which administers CWT.

Read the full article >

Farm Real Estate Values Decline
For the first time since 1987, farm real estate value has declined, according to the "2009 Land Value and Cash Rents Summary" report released by USDA’s National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS).

"The contraction in the overall economy has caused less commercial and residential development in many regions. Livestock and crop commodity prices have declined from a year earlier, thus producers and investors are less optimistic than a year ago," say NASS analysts. "A decrease in the demand for recreational land has also contributed to the overall decrease in land values."

In round numbers, pastureland values declined by $20/acre (1.8%) compared to 2008 to $1,070/acre. Of course, that’s still 45% higher than the national average of $740 in 2005.

Read the full article >

Stocker Management

Tackling A New Old BVDV Strain
Based on early results across 200,000 head of cattle, a new approach to bovine viral diarrhea virus (BVDV) vaccination is halving the treatments and re-pulls in feedlots. Thoughts are that stocker operators can also benefit.

In a nutshell, Scott Crain, DVM, who owns Cattle Health Management Network (CHMN) – a veterinary consulting service for feedyards – was as frustrated with late-day pulls as his clients were. He discovered BVDV 1b present in many of those situations.

"We know that we have BVDV 1b making cattle sick at all stages of the cattle-feeding period," Crain says. "We know we have that happening with cattle vaccinated multiple times for the BVDV 1a and 2a available in commercial vaccines."

Read the full article >

Stocker Economics

Dog Day Markets
"Cattle markets are in the summer doldrums and are mostly marking time until fall without a lot of trend or direction," says Derrell Peel, Oklahoma State University (OSU) Extension livestock marketing specialist. "The biggest bad news is, of course, the continued weakness in boxed-beef prices that are keeping fed-cattle prices trapped in lower the $80/cwt. range. By-product values have improved in recent weeks providing a bit of breather for packers but overall demand weakness is still the major factor holding down meat and cattle prices."

Domestically, according to the Beef Demand Index, the industry is about to where it was in 2001, just a couple of years after demand started perking up following two decades of losing 1% in demand per year.

Read the full article >

Event Spotlight

23rd Annual Wheatland Stocker Conference
Aug. 21 – 8:30 a.m.
Cherokee Strip Conference Center, Enid, OK
Hosted by Oklahoma State University.
  • How Age and Source Verification can Add Value to Stocker Calves, Joe Young, Micro Beef Technologies

  • Cattle Markets and Issues: Finding Opportunities and Avoiding Traps, Derrell Peel, Oklahoma State University

  • Reducing Cattle Stress to Maximize Stocker Production Efficiency, Dawn Hnatow, livestock handling specialist, Bowie, TX; Lynn Locatelli, DVM, Wolf Creek, MT

  • Farm Policy and Livestock Issues in the News, Ron Hays, Radio Oklahoma Network

  • Stocker Cattle Nutrition Update, David Lalman, Oklahoma State University
For more information: Greg Highfill, 580-237-7677, greg.highfill@okstate.edu

Deep South Stocker Conference
Aug. 20-21
Hattiesburg, MS
Hosted by Auburn University, Mississippi State University, and the University of Georgia.

Thursday, Aug. 20th: Noon - 6 p.m.

  • Production Tours
  • Price Risk Management, John Anderson, Mississippi State University (evening meal)
Friday, Aug. 21st: 8 am - 4 p.m.
  • Receiving Health Protocols, Robin Faulkner, Pfizer Animal Health
  • Soil Nutrient Management, Dennis Hancock, Univ. of Georgia
  • Producer Panel Three diverse operators
  • Grazing Management, Holly Boland, Mississippi State University
  • Feeder and Fed Cattle Market Trends, John Michael Riley, Mississippi State University
For more information: Justin Rhinehart, 662-325-7465, jrhinehart@ads.msstate.edu

Events

Calendar Of Events
Aug. 20-21 – Deep South Stocker Conference, Hattiesburg, MS, contact Justin Rhinehart, 662-325-7465 jrhinehart@ads.msstate.edu; online registration at www.caes.uga.edu.pdf

Aug. 21 – 23rd Annual Wheatland Stocker Conference, Enid, OK, Greg Highfill, 580-237-7677, greg.highfill@okstate.edu

Aug. 25-27 – ID Info-Expo, Westin Crown Center, Kansas City, MO; 270-782-9798 or www.animalagriculture.org.

Sept. 22-23—Georgia Grazing School, Athens, GA.

Sept. 24 – KSU Beef Stocker Field Day, Beef Stocker Unit, Manhattan, KS; 785-532-1267 or www.asi.ksu.edu/.

Sept. 25-27 – Tri-State Meat Goat Conference, Shepperd Arena, Fargo, ND; 701-231-7522 or to www.ndsu.edu/sheepandgoat/.

Sept. 29-Oct. 1 – University of Missouri Grazing School, MU Forage Systems Research Center, Linn County; aes.missouri.edu/fsrc/news/fsrc5.stm.

Oct. 29-30 – HOLT CAT Symposium on Excellence in Ranch Management, King Ranch Institute for Ranch Management, Kingsville, TX; 361-593-5401 or krirm.tamuk.edu.

Dec. 14-16 – Lectureship on Managerial Accounting for Ranchers, King Ranch Institute for Ranch Management, Kingsville, TX; 361-593-5401 or krirm.tamuk.edu.

Contact

Send Questions & Comments To...

Wes Ishmael, Contributing Editor, BEEF Stocker Trends, at wesleysink@aol.com

Joe Roybal, Editor, BEEF magazine, at jroybal@beef-mag.com


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MARKETS

Consumer Demand Continues To Cap Prices

"The ongoing trend of lighter numbers of cattle on feed (for well over a year now), plus the diminishing numbers of total cattle inventory, have not been enough to offset the fading demand for beef," say analysts with the Agricultural Marketing Service (AMS). "Plus, packers have done a good job managing tight supplies of market-ready cattle and feedlots cannot seem to find adequate leverage to raise the market."

For the most part, the market continues to run sideways. Fed cattle traded at mostly $81-$82 last week, steady to $1 higher than the previous week, which represented recouping the $1 lost that week.

Feeder cattle and calves sold unevenly steady with a higher undertone for stocker calves and lightweight yearlings; heavier feeders (over 800 lbs.) traded with a slightly lower undertone.

"The feeder market is lacking a true sense of direction at the present time, as input costs and future fed-cattle prices fail to fully respond to fundamental supply data," say AMS analysts.

Among the fundamentals are declining cattle numbers that are expected to decline further. Also on this side of the ledger is a corn crop many are predicting to be the second largest on record (see "Record Corn Supply Forecast").

According to the folks at AMS, the strongest feeder cattle demand is for last fall’s weaned calves which have the ability to exploit this year’s abundance of hay and late summer pasture forage.

"The benefits of fall calving can help not only the producers that have the ability to do it, but also the entire industry by spreading out the supply of cattle hitting the market at any one time," say AMS analysts. "Most typical spring calvers try to narrow their calving window somewhere between Feb. 1 and the end of May. These calves normally flood the market between Oct. 1 and the end of the year, with only a small number of producers weaning their calves and holding them into the following year. This leaves the best months for stocker demand wide open for marketing, but only a light supply of fall calves or mismanaged cattle to fill it."

Click here for market prices >

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OUTLOOK

Record Corn Supply Forecast
U.S. corn supplies are projected at a record 14.5 billion bu., up 134 million from the previous record in 2007-08, according to the monthly "World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates" (WASDE) released Wednesday. That’s true even though corn usage is projected higher.

One reason is a boost in the estimate of 2009-10 corn production by 417 million bu. to 12.8 billion bu.

According to WASDE, ending corn stocks are projected up 71 million bu., with higher expected use partly offsetting the increase in production. The 2009-10 marketing-year average farm price is projected at $3.10-$3.90/bu., down 25¢ on both ends of the range. The marketing-year average reflects higher prices for corn sold for forward delivery over the past several months ahead of the sharp downturn in futures and cash market prices since early June.

Likewise, U.S. wheat ending stocks for 2009-10 are projected 36 million bu. higher this month as higher forecast production more than offsets an increase in projected use and lower imports. Wheat production for 2009-10 is forecast 71 million bu. higher at 2.184 billion bu. The 2009-10 marketing-year average farm price is projected at $4.70-$5.70/bu., down 10¢ on both ends of the range.

U.S. soybean production is estimated at 3.2 billion bu., 61 million below the July projection, but 240 million bu. more than last year’s crop. Soybean stocks are projected at 210 million bu., down 40 million from July as reduced supplies are only partly offset by reduced crush and exports.

The U.S. season-average soybean price for 2009-10 is projected at $8.40- $10.40, up 10¢ on both ends of the range. Soybean meal prices are projected at $260-$320/short ton, up $5 on both ends of the range. Soybean oil prices are projected at 32-36¢/lbs., up one cent on both ends of the range.

For the week ending Aug. 9, according to the National Agricultural Statistics Service:

Click here for more >

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NATIONAL STOCKER AWARD



Information on the 2009 award
Meet the past winners
Report on the first-ever National Stocker Survey
Download the 2009 National Stocker Award Nomination Form
Visit BeefStockerUSA.org

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