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BEEF STOCKER TRENDS

From the editors of BEEF Magazine
In the September 22, 2009 Issue
 
  Stockers Offer Cow-Calf Opportunity
  End Of The Great Recession? Maybe
  Cattle Market Recovery Likely Sluggish
  Livestock Disaster Assistance Programs Begin
  Get Pasture Leases In Writing
  10th Annual Kansas State University Beef Stocker Field Day
  Calendar Of Events
  Send Questions & Comments To...

Stockers in the News

Stockers Offer Cow-Calf Opportunity
Even with record corn yield predicted, and corn prices projected to hover around $3/bu. – substantially lower than last year – forage still wins the race for cost of gain. That should be more pronounced this year with bumper hay and forage crops across much of the nation.

Plus, it’s not like calf prices are all that enticing to sellers; and that was before the fall run began.

Read the full article >

News

End Of The Great Recession? Maybe
“…as painful as this recession has been, I believe that we succeeded in avoiding the second Great Depression that seemed to be a real possibility,” said Janet Yellen, president and CEO, Federal Reserve Bank (FRB) of San Francisco last Monday. “Much of the recent economic data suggest that the economy has bottomed out and that the worst risks are behind us. The economy seems to be brushing itself off and beginning its climb out of the deep hole it’s been in... This summer likely marked the end of the recession and the economy should expand in the second half of this year.”

Among the signs pointing to economic growth rather than contraction:

Read the full article >

Stocker News

Cattle Market Recovery Likely Sluggish
Though there are logical reasons to suggest the nation’s economy is on the cusp of recovery (see "End of the Great Recession? Maybe"), margins will continue to be challenging for stocker operators, and for cattlemen and livestock producers in general.

“The recent recession has wounded the livestock industry,” say Federal Reserve Board (FRB) economists Brian Briggeman and Jason Henderson. “Since 2007, falling demand and rising feed costs have battered U.S. producers of cattle, hogs, poultry and dairy products, forcing them to trim their herds. This traditional supply adjustment should help rebalance supply and demand, thus boosting profit margins and staving off larger losses over the next year.”

Read the full article >

Livestock Disaster Assistance Programs Begin
A number of permanent livestock disaster programs – authorized by the 2008 Farm Bill – got started last week.

Livestock Forage Disaster Program (LFDP) provides payments to eligible livestock producers who suffered livestock grazing losses due to qualifying drought or fire.

Read the full article >

Stocker Management

Get Pasture Leases In Writing
“In general, a good lease is one in which both parties agree it is fair and both completely understand each other’s expectations,” says Wesley Tucker, University of Missouri Extension ag business specialist.

According to Tucker, most problems with a pasture lease occur when one or more parties don’t fully understand what the other expected. Whether the lease is verbal or in writing, Tucker says taking the time to discuss issues ahead of time will prevent 99% of the problems that will arise later.

Read the full article >

Event Spotlight

10th Annual Kansas State University Beef Stocker Field Day
Sept. 24 – 9:30 a.m.
KSU Beef Stocker Unit, Manhattan, KS
  • Buying and selling right, Kevin Dhuyvetter, KSU.
  • Partnering with feedlots: Who brings what to the table, panel featuring Jerry Bohn (Pratt Feeders), Dan Dorn (Decatur County Feed Yard) and Jim Reeves (JMR Cattle Co.).
  • Thinking outside the shots, Dan Thompson, DVM, KSU.
  • Negotiating custom-grazing arrangements, panel featuring Mike Collinge (Hamilton, KS), Tim Miser (Cottonwood Falls, KS) and Alan Hess (Alma, KS).
  • Cattle financing in a tight credit market, Gary Cotterill, Community National Bank, Chanute, KS.
  • Producing value-added cattle, Brian Bertelson, U.S. Premium Beef.
  • Weed & woody plant control for pastures, Walt Fick, KSU.
  • Utilization of by-products on pasture, Lyle Lomas, KSU.
For more info, contact Lois Schreiner at 785-532-1267 or lschrein@ksu.edu

Events

Calendar Of Events
Sept. 22-23 – Georgia Grazing School, Athens, GA.
Sept. 22-23 – Tri-State Cow-Calf Conference, Gray, TN
Sept. 24 – Beef Stocker Conference, Kansas State University, Manhattan, KS
Oct. 29-30 – HOLT CAT Symposium on Excellence in Ranch Management, King Ranch Institute for Ranch Management, Kingsville, TX; 361-593-5401 or krirm.tamuk.edu.
Dec. 14-16 – Lectureship on Managerial Accounting for Ranchers, King Ranch Institute for Ranch Management, Kingsville, TX; 361-593-5401 or krirm.tamuk.edu.

Contact

Send Questions & Comments To...

Wes Ishmael, Contributing Editor, BEEF Stocker Trends, at wesleysink@aol.com

Joe Roybal, Editor, BEEF magazine, at jroybal@beef-mag.com


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MARKETS

Calves And Feeders Trend Lower

Without any extra support from consumer beef demand, and with surging volume as the fall calf run gets under way, calves and yearlings sold mostly steady to $3 lower last week. To cap it off, fed cattle lost $0.50-$1.00 compared to the previous week.

“Feeder cattle buyers showed reserve on purchasing feedlot replacements, especially the yearlings as equity has been lost over the last several cycles of cattle feeding,” explained analysts with the Agricultural Marketing Service (AMS) Friday. They added that many orders seemed to be filled at mid-week as feeder cattle and live cattle futures doled out triple-digit losses.

Friday’s Cattle on Feed Report was on par with the prevailing pre-release sentiment: Inventory of 99% compared to Sept. 1, 2008; placements at 102%; marketings at 96%.

“…the livestock scenario for this fall and next year seems favorable with very good crop conditions and outlook but livestock prices seem to be elusive in reaching a positive price level,” say AMS analysts. “Near limit higher CBOT corn market on Tuesday – from early frost warnings in the northern Corn Belt – helped pressure feeders, but when frost warnings were removed on Wednesday as corn traded at lower levels (price), feeder-cattle futures continued to trade lower.”

Click here for market prices >

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OUTLOOK

Record Corn Yield Projected

USDA’s August Crop Production released Sept. 11 pegs corn production at 13.0 billion bu., 2% higher than last month’s prediction. If achieved, that would be 7% higher than last year and represent the second-largest crop on record. The projected average yield of 161.9 bu., 8.0 bu./acre more than last year, would be a new record if realized.

Of course, that all hinges upon how soon the first frost comes along. Last week’s reports of the possibilities of one in the northern Corn Belt this week sent corn futures limit-up. Meteorologists backtracked the next day and so did prices.

According to the monthly World Agriculture Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) released the same day, the 2009/10 marketing-year average farm price is projected lower at $3.05 to $3.65/bu., compared with $3.10 to $3.90/bu. last month.

The crop production report also bumps soybean production up 1% from the previous month’s estimate to 3.25 billion bu., which would be 10% more than 2008. According to WASDE estimates, the U.S. season-average soybean price range for 2009/10 is projected at $8.10 to $10.10/bu., down 30c on both ends of the range. The soybean meal price is projected at $250 to $310/short ton, down $10 on both ends. The soybean oil price range is unchanged at 32-36c/lb.

Click here for more >

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NATIONAL STOCKER AWARD



Information on the 2009 award
Meet the past winners
Report on the first-ever National Stocker Survey
Download the 2009 National Stocker Award Nomination Form
Visit BeefStockerUSA.org

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