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Record Prices Beget & Demand More Records
Record-high cattle and beef prices fueled by tightening cattle and beef supplies are going to challenge beef demand.
"Beginning with December 2009 prices for 750-800-lb. Medium and Large No. 1 Oklahoma City feeder cattle that were 4% above 2008, feeder-cattle prices have exhibited year-over-year increases every month," say analysts in this month's Livestock, Dairy and Poultry Outlook. "Increasingly scarce supplies of feeder cattle, especially heavier, older yearlings, make it likely that feeder-cattle prices will continue high for the next two or three years until calf crops begin increasing year over year. Additional longer-term support for feeder-cattle prices will come as the expected lower corn and feed prices materialize in 2012-13."
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Exports Continue Record Pace
U.S. beef exports set a new annual record in October. The U.S. Meat Export Federation (USMEF) says the value of beef exports in October was $452 million, for a new annual record of $4.49 billion. That's 37% more than the then-record pace established in the first 10 months of 2010. Pork exports are also on record pace.
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La Niña Continues To Re-Strengthen
"La Niña is recovering in strength and, with this recovery, we may stay in the same weather pattern we had for the past year," Elwynn Taylor, Iowa State University professor of ag meteorology, explained at during the recent Iowa State Integrated Crop Management Conference in Ames.
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Rethink Old Rules Of Thumb
That old rule of thumb about a 10¢ change in the price of a bushel of corn pushing feeder cattle $1 in the opposite direction has gone by the wayside, says Dillon Feuz, Utah State University ag economist, in a recent In the Cattle Markets.
Feuz ran the numbers (see chart below), looking at monthly feeder-cattle prices from Kansas, Montana and Nebraska in 2002 through 2011. He broke the data into two, five-year periods: 2002-2006 and 2007-2011. He used the current nearby corn futures for each month and the live-cattle futures 4-8 months out as the expected fed-cattle price, depending on feeder cattle weight.
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Reduce Hay Waste
"Much expense and many long hours go into harvesting and storing hay for winter feeding, so why waste it?" says Bruce Anderson, University of Nebraska Extension forage specialist.
In a recent Hay and Forage Minutes, Anderson explains that cattle will waste as much as 45% of the hay they're fed when they receive it without restriction.
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Mid-South Stocker Conference Is Feb. 21-22
"Meeting the Needs of a Changing Industry" is the focus of this year's Mid-South Stocker Conference, Feb. 21-22, at Paris Landing State Park in Buchanan, TN.
The conference begins at 1 p.m. on Feb. 21 with a two-hour virtual tour of area stocker operations and a producer panel discussion moderated by Emmit Rawls, University of Tennessee ag economist.
Other topics include a market overview, updated stocker research, and a look at this year's weather outlook.
You can find more information, including registration and accommodation details, at www.midsouthstocker.org.
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Calendar Of Events
Jan. 6 – Cattle Trails Cow-Calf Clinic Conference on General Herd Health, 8:15 a.m. to 2:00 p.m., Wichita Falls, TX; contact Karen Thompson at 940-552-9941or kethompson@ag.tamu.edu.
Jan. 13 – North Dakota State University Extension Dakota Cow-Calf Clinic Video Conference on General Herd Health, 10 a.m. to noon, Ashley, Carrington, Grafton, LaMoure and Langdon; 701-652-2951 or karl.hoppe@ndsu.edu.
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