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Three Ominous Indicators Point To Drought In
2008
If you believe in omens, 2008 may be the wrong year to
grow dryland corn in the Midwest, according to Elwynn Taylor, Iowa State
University Extension climatologist.
One indicator that points to a less fortunate year ahead is a La
Niña weather pattern that is building in the Pacific Ocean's
equatorial region. "During a La Niña event, there is a 70% chance
that corn will yield below trend in the U.S. Corn Belt," says Taylor.
"So, a La Niña event increases the risk to corn growers."
Drought history is a second unlucky indicator for Corn-Belt corn
growers, says Taylor. "History tells us that the average time span
between major droughts in the Midwest is about 19 years," he points out.
"The last major drought was 1988 -- 19 years ago."
The third indicator that might cause Midwestern corn growers concern is
an ongoing drought in states like South Carolina, Georgia, Alabama and
North Carolina. "Out of the 17 major droughts that have occurred in the
Midwest in the past 100 years, 16 were preceded by a major drought in
the Southeast," says Taylor. "So, the drought in the Southeast is
another bad sign."
Even more ominous than each ill-boding factor in itself is the
realization that all three sinister indicators will converge ahead of
next year's corn crop. "If three bad factors make a bad omen, then it's
all here for 2008," says Taylor. "We have no scientific evidence to
think that all three factors will gang up on us next year to create a
major drought, but these are certainly all factors that will put people
on edge."
For dryland corn farmers who want to find a silver lining in the
potential for higher yields in 2008, there is one good omen to mention
for this spring -- ample soil moisture levels. "Most areas in the
Midwest seem to have recovered from soil moisture shortages this
summer," says Taylor. "So, corn farmers should be off to a good start
next spring with subsoil moisture deficits largely erased."
The only question is how long soil moisture levels will stay plentiful
to cope with a summer that may turn hotter than normal, says Taylor.
"The problem with a La Niña year in the Midwest is the extra heat
that we receive," he explains. "Basically what La Niña tends to do
is leave the crop unprotected from excessively hot weather during
summer."
To learn more about potential weather concerns for Iowa, click here: www.extension.iastate.edu/weather.htm.
For more information about Midwestern weather, click here: mrcc.sws.uiuc.edu/. For more
information about weather from the National Weather Service, click here:
www.weather.gov/.
By John Pocock
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Budget Generator Helps Determine What Crop To
Plant
Farmers should consider using the crop budget
generator (CBG) to help them to decide whether to plant corn or soybeans
in 2008. At least that's the recommendation from Ray Massey, a
University of Missouri (MU) Extension agricultural economist, who makes
the suggestion in the Nov. 16, 2007 edition of the MU Integrated Pest
& Crop Management newsletter.
The crop budget generator is a decision-making tool for crop farmers,
which was developed by MU and the Food and Agricultural Policy Research
Institute (FAPRI). "It is a spreadsheet that allows the user to enter
their estimates for yields, prices, inputs and expenses to arrive at
their estimate of net income," explains Massey. "I would recommend that
readers download this spreadsheet from the Farmer's Corner section of
the FAPRI Web site (www.fapri.missouri.edu/farmers_corner)
and estimate their own costs and returns to determine what is best to
plant."
This spreadsheet is about the only predictor Massey is willing to
provide farmers who want to know what crop will generate more income
next year. "While I don't have the guts to give a crystal ball forecast
of whether corn or soybeans offer better profit potential, I don't have
any qualms about encouraging farmers to take advantage of the FAPRI
budget generator to estimate their own profit potentials from both corn
and soybeans," he writes. "Of course, the big wildcard is what the price
will be in 2008."
Massey recommends farmers who want more information on how to improve
their marketing decisions to visit the FAPRI decisive marketing
newsletter at: www.fapri.missouri.edu/farmers_corner/mktng_newsletter.
To read more of Massey's tips on corn and soybean planting decisions for
2008, click on this pdf Web link: ppp.missouri.edu/newsletters/ipcm.
By John Pocock
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Some Farm Costs To Jump In 2008
Non-land costs for Illinois farmers are projected to
increase in 2008, says Gary Schnitkey, a University of Illinois (U of I)
Extension farm financial management specialist.
"Non-land costs will average around $370/acre for corn and around
$220/acre for soybeans," says Schnitkey "After considering land costs,
costs for corn on many farms in northern and central Illinois will be in
the mid- to high-$500s/acre range. Some farms, with either
higher-than-average non-land costs or high cash rents, could have costs
over $600/acre.
"After considering land costs, total costs for soybeans on many farms
will be close to $400/acre," he adds. "Some farms, with either
above-average costs or higher cash rents, will have total costs in the
mid-$400/acre range."
Schnitkey's findings are in "Non-Land Costs for Corn and Soybeans
Projected to Increase in 2008," a study (www.farmdoc.uiuc.edu)
available on U of I Extension's farmdoc Web site.
"Given these costs, breakeven revenues will be above $3 for corn and
above $8 for soybeans for many farms," he says. "These breakeven revenue
levels point to the need for corn and soybean prices to continue to be
higher than historical averages."
Current futures market prices indicate relatively high prices for
2008 production, acknowledges Schnitkey. Yet, "a return to commodity
prices nearer historical levels -- $2.40 for corn and $6 for soybeans --
would likely cause low and negative incomes on many farms," he adds.
Costs for corn and soybean production continue to rise annually, shows
Schnitkey's study. For corn, non-land costs will be over $40/acre higher
in 2008 as compared to 2007. Non-land costs for soybeans are projected
to be on average $16-18/acre higher in 2008.
"Between 2003 and 2008, non-land costs have increased over $120/acre for
corn and over $60/acre for soybeans," he says. "These increases have led
to higher breakeven levels."
The study was based on data from local Farm Business Farm Management
Associations throughout the state.
Source: University of Illinois
Extension
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No Trick To Choosing Transgenic
Hybrids
Growers who intend to plant transgenic hybrids in 2008
should eye such performance characteristics as yield potential, stalk
quality and grain moisture, advises Peter Thomison, an Ohio State
University (OSU) Extension agronomist who also holds a research
appointment with the Ohio Agricultural Research and Development Center.
"The same recommendations we make for planting non-transgenic hybrids
apply equally to planting hybrids that carry genetically modified
traits," says Thomison. "It all depends on how well-adapted the base
genetics are to Ohio's environmental conditions."
Transgenics is the science of introducing a gene from one organism or
plant into the genome of another organism or plant. In crop production,
Bt corn (to control European corn borer and corn rootworm) and Roundup
Ready corn and soybeans (for enhanced weed control) would be examples of
transgenics.
Transgenic hybrids are becoming more popular. Over 40% of Ohio's
2007 corn crop consisted of biotech varieties, 15% more than last year,
according to USDA. Of the three main biotechnology types -- insect
resistant, herbicide resistant and stacked genes -- farmers grew more
stacked gene varieties in 2007, increasing their acreage by 15% over
last year.
Thomison and his colleagues will report a significant increase in
transgenic corn hybrids in this year's OSU Extension Corn Performance
Trials. The trials evaluate corn hybrids in several Ohio locations on a
variety of performance characteristics. The results are intended to aid
growers in making planting decisions for their given production
situation.
"Five years ago, less than 15% of the hybrids we evaluated in our
performance trials were transgenic. This year, that number is 85% or
more," says Thomison. "Of that 85%, the majority are stacked-trait
hybrids."
The decision to plant transgenics should be driven by economics, advises
Thomison. "Growers who have or expect significant cost problems with
European corn borer or western corn rootworm or who see an effective use
of herbicide resistance in their cropping systems should consider
transgenics," he says. "But if these are not major considerations or
issues, then seed cost may favor using non-transgenics."
Look for the results of OSU Extension's 2007 Corn Performance Trials
this winter by logging on to agcrops.osu.edu/corn.
Source: Ohio State University
Extension
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Consider
Safeguards To Limit Fall N Loss
"Fall-applied anhydrous ammonia is not considered a
best management practice anywhere in Missouri," caution John Lory, an
Extension environmental nutrient management specialist, and Peter
Scharf, an Extension agronomist, University of Missouri (MU). "Preplant
and sidedress applications are preferred because they minimize potential
losses of applied nitrogen," they write in the Nov. 16, 2007 edition of
the MU Integrated Pest & Crop Management newsletter.
"If you choose to apply anhydrous ammonia in the fall, take steps to
limit potential losses by delaying application until 6-in. soil
temperatures approach 40° F and by using a nitrification
inhibitor," they advise. "Limiting fall anhydrous ammonia applications
to less than half of planned corn and milo acres will also help to
manage risk."
These two MU Extension specialists also advise checking a Web site that
is updated daily for "6-in. soil temperature at nine central and
northern Missouri locations" at: agebb.missouri.edu/weather/reports/soysoil6.asp.
To read more tips from Lory and Scharf on fall nutrient management,
click on the following pdf Web link: ppp.missouri.edu/newsletters.
By John Pocock
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Maryland
Farmer Provides Top-10 Continuous-Corn Management
Tips
Much of Maryland experienced corn yields that were
approximately 50% less than normal production (138 bu./acre average
during the previous four years), with some areas that were hit
particularly hard with drought that yielded only about 25% of normal,
says Bob Kratochvil, University of Maryland Extension grain and oil
crops specialist.
Despite last year's drought and disappointing corn yields, there is
still strong interest among area farmers to grow corn following corn in
2008, he adds. "Yet, most research -- including some conducted in
Maryland with continuous corn -- has found about a 10% loss in grain
yield with continuous corn compared to rotational corn," says
Kratochvil. "As an Extension agronomist, I strongly urge farmers not to
abandon crop rotation as the simplest, most sound agronomic tool they
can practice. However, I do recognize the fact that dairy and cattle
farmers are often not rotating their corn fields every year because they
are trying to produce as much forage as possible and it simply is not
economical to rotate hay ground annually. So, with limited acreage
available, they generally go with two to three or more years of
continuous corn before rotating into a hay crop."
Don Robinson is one such farmer from northern Maryland. Robinson
recently wrote to the Corn E-Digest to share his top-10
continuous-corn management tips. The following is what he writes:
"I raise beef and plant corn for silage and grain if there is any left
to combine. Because our main acreage is dedicated to cows, most of our
forage is grown on leased acreage and is split between corn and hay.
Because we don't replant hay on a yearly basis, corn normally follows
corn. Because of the Chesapeake Bay (environmental concerns), we've been
planting cover crops to take up any nitrogen (N) the corn doesn't get.
Our primary tillage is minimum-till to no-till. I haven't had a
moldboard on a tractor for about five years, and that was to get ridges
out of a field we leased.
Yields have slowly increased, averaging 182 bu./acre on combined corn
last year and about 25 tons/acre chopped. Although forage was shorter
this year, at about 20 tons/acre, the average corn yield for grain was
higher and averaged 190 bu./acre. This area also got a few timely
showers in July that farms 50 miles north and south of us didn't get,
and our no-till did give us a few extra days of soil moisture
conservation until we got those sprinkles.
I've been growing corn on corn now for about 20 years, and the few tips
I have are probably those you have already seen. They are:
- Cut residue in the fall -- it allows the stalk to break down and
rot, destroys many weeds and clears the surface for next spring.
- If you plant a cover crop, burn it off early, unless you plan to
harvest it for forage or grain. We have harvested wheat off cover acres,
and have had mixed results on silage acreage following wheat covers,
mostly depending on the amount of moisture available late in the
season.
- If you have manure, use it. Mix it in with a disk or similar tool if
you can. We store manure through the winter, spread early in the spring,
disk, spray and plant.
- Keep an eye on fertility -- especially with manure. First-year
manure ground doesn't always seem to respond, but there is a noticeable
response the second year. This is where the fall disking can really pay
off -- it helps in incorporating the spring manure.
- While a disk is our main tillage tool, I've been toying with trying
a Turbo Till from Great Plains Manufacturing for working our residue and
manure in. I plant with a no-till planter and will sometimes skip
tillage in the spring, but overall weed control seems better with at
least once over with a disk.
- While deeper tillage may sometimes seem the way to go and have many
champions, overall we may see a slight decrease in yields from no-till
for about two years, but have seen increasing yields following the first
period. I can't say whether this is due to improved seed, but we have
seen ground respond from fewer trips over it in the no-till method.
There is less erosion, better moisture retention, and our no-till gives
us a better ability in the spring to get the seed in quicker. Our
surface tilth seems to be improving in organic matter and our
water-carrying capacity.
- On chemicals, we are increasing acreage in Roundup Ready, but I have
found that a spike of 2-4D or Banvel will greatly improve control of
Canada thistle and horsenettle. There has also been improved control of
marestail, which has seen some resistance to the Roundup.
- While no-till sometimes has detractors, the method does work well if
a few simple mindsets are changed. No-till is really just tilling a slit
to plant in. Burndown is necessary, whether pre- or post-plant. This is
where a disk and a minimum-till tool can save a buck or two. I've found
that a good dose of Roundup teamed up with Banvel and Bicep late
post-plant seems to give us very good weed control all season. The disk
has given weeds a knockdown early on, I've planted, waited until the
corn has emerged and then gone over it with about 2 pints of glyphosate,
2 quarts of Bicep and about 1/2 pint of Banvel. This has given the weeds
a chance to emerge where the Roundup can work, gets the Banvel on
problem spots and gets the Bicep on for later season control.
- The fall disking in silage ground is not as necessary, but we try to
put a cover of rye, barley or wheat on the ground. Because of a shortage
of hay this past year, we may try winter grazing on some of our wheat
cover, but this remains an option. It seems that a good deep frost has a
part in the improvement of the overall tilth of the ground in lower
tillage programs. I'm not convinced that putting cows on it can help
reduce compaction.
- Talking about compaction, the fewest trips possible over the ground,
especially in the winter and when the ground is wet, is a must. While
old root structure provides some channel to store water, as it rots it
disappears. Running machinery over the ground when it's still too wet
will just close those channels to the subsoil. The moisture in those
channels also plays a part in the frost to help open the soil up in
following years of reduced tillage. In following years of corn on corn,
the numbers of these channels increase, and allow the ground more of
these channels for water. This is one of the keys to improving corn on
corn yields.
There are things I want to try, but budgets and fancy new tools don't
always pay off in our sized operation. Our ground is somewhat stony, so
chisel-type equipment only finds more. The frost still pushes enough to
the surface, and a moldboard only seems to make them come out faster
than a disk or coulter. The trash on top and just mixed in has helped to
reduce the amount of surface stone as the years have passed or has at
least hidden them and seems to help the soil rebuild rather than recede.
But corn on corn can work if these simple common sense ideas are used,
and yields don't suffer. You just have to treat the soil to build it up
and keep it fertile. Corn takes a lot out of the ground, and it needs
that winter break. Treat it right in the spring, feed it well and it
will produce a great crop the following year."
By John Pocock
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U Of I Posts A Report On Corn-Based Ethanol
In Illinois And The U.S
The U.S. ethanol boom -- what are the causes,
attendant effects on Illinois and U.S. agriculture and alternative
futures? These are some of the issues addressed in this report from the
Department of Agricultural and Consumer Economics and the College of
Agricultural, Consumer and Environmental Sciences, University of
Illinois. The goal of this report is to provide objective information to
Illinois stakeholders, cutting through the emotional, political and
economic self-interests that often dominate discussions about ethanol
production and use.
For the complete study, go to: www.farmdoc.uiuc.edu.
Source: University of Illinois
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Michiana
Crops Conference Set For Dec. 7
Farmers and agribusiness representatives can get an
update on cropping issues during the third annual Michiana Crops
Conference, Dec. 7 at the Blue Gate Restaurant and Bakery in
Shipshewana, IN.
The event will run from 8 a.m. to 3:30 p.m. and feature presentations on
biofuel production, storage and marketing. Presenters from Michigan
State University (MSU) and Purdue University will discuss energy
implications for U.S. agriculture policy, biofuel crop production
issues, grain storage in the biofuel era, insect management for
long-term grain storage, riding the biofuel wave without going broke,
glyphosate-resistant weeds, foliar disease management using fungicides
and traffic laws for farmers.
Participants will also have the opportunity to earn pesticide applicator
and certified crop adviser credits.The registration fee is $35 before
Nov. 30 and $40 after that date. Preregistration is required.
To register, call any MSU Extension or Purdue University Extension
office. The Michiana Crops Conference is sponsored by MSU Extension and
Purdue University Extension.
Source: Michigan State University
Extension
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Quad-Stacked Corn Seed Plentiful For
2008
Supplies should be abundant for farmers interested in
purchasing Agrisure 3000GT, Syngenta's new quad stack that protects the
corn crop against both corn borer and corn rootworm, while providing
tolerance to in-season applications of both glyphosate and Liberty
herbicides, says Chuck Lee, head of corn marketing for Syngenta. The
vast majority of the corn seed that Syngenta is processing for 2008
planting contains stacked traits, he adds.
Stacked-trait seed supplies should be more than sufficient, agrees Mike
Hollands, Syngenta's vice president of corn and soybean supply. "The
2007 seed crop is the largest ever produced by Syngenta and is of
exceptional quality despite spotty weather conditions across the
Midwest," he says. "We are harvesting and conditioning record volumes of
seed and shipping larger orders to more customers in a timely manner."
For more information on Syngenta's quad-stacked corn seed, visit the
following Web link and click on the traits link:
www.agrisuretraits.com/Agrisure.
Source: Syngenta
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Congress Urged To Remedy Federal Death Tax
Now
Family farmers and ranchers have long opposed estate
taxes because of the devastating effects the tax can have on their farm
and ranch businesses when a family member dies. That's why the American
Farm Bureau Federation (AFBF), the country's largest organization
representing farmers and ranchers who grow every commodity marketed
commercially in this country, supports permanent repeal of the federal
estate tax.
"Farm Bureau members continue to urge lawmakers to provide permanent
relief from the burdens of the federal death tax," says AFBF President
Bob Stallman. "The repeal of this tax is Farm Bureau's top tax priority,
and one that unites farmers and ranchers nationwide, regardless of the
crop or farm animal they produce."
The death of a farmer or rancher may force his or her children and
grandchildren to liquidate all or part of the family's property and
other assets to pay the federal death tax, even if the family spent
years and thousands of dollars preparing for that time.
To read more about AFBF's outlook on estate taxes, and the need for a
permanent repeal, click here: www.fb.org.
Source: Farm Bureau Federation
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Top-10
Reasons To Be Thankful: A Note From The Corn E-Digest
Editor
Harvest is complete for most farmers and many are
looking forward to relaxing with friends and family during the upcoming
Thanksgiving holiday. Ditto for myself, I'll be traveling from my home
near Minneapolis, MN, to Great Bend, KS, to spend time with my wife's
side of the family.
If you have time during next week and want to drop me a note about the
top reasons for U.S. corn farmers to be thankful this season, I'd be
happy to hear from you. I'm hopeful that I'll get enough input from
readers to compile a top-10 list for the next issue.
As always, if you have any suggestions on what you'd like to see covered
in a future issue of the Corn E-Digest, or if you have concerns
or questions about this issue, please write me (John Pocock) at: jpocock@csdigest.com.
Thanks for your readership.
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