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Grain
Prices Enter A New Era, But For How Long?
July soybean futures traded at $12.93/bu. -- an
all-time price high -- on the Chicago Board of Trade electronic trading
platform before closing at $12.92 on Thursday, January 3. The previous
soybean futures high price occurred on June 5, 1973, with a $12.90 July
1973 futures trade, according to Brock Associates, a farm market
advisory firm.
"The lion's share of this new, market-high-move came in the last 10
days," says Richard Brock, Brock Associates president. "The soybean
market has now moved higher than what the fundamentals would justify,
just like the wheat market did this past fall."
Corn futures prices are also knocking near historic highs, adds Brock.
"We'll probably see corn futures prices with the number 5 behind the
dollar sign soon," he says. "We're getting very close to an intermediate
top, which will likely occur sometime in January. We'll hit a top that
will likely last at least six months, unless we encounter major drought
problems this summer."
Oil prices were hovering near $100/barrel last week, but that probably
contributed very little to the recent increase in grain prices, says
Brock. "Fundamentally, $100/barrel oil prices don't make a bit of
difference on the grain market, but psychologically it makes people
think that grain prices will move up," he explains. "While there is a
minimal correlation between gasoline prices and ethanol prices, its
current correlation with grain prices is pretty weak."
Grain supplies are far from inadequate, emphasizes Brock. "We
don't have a scarcity of corn or soybeans," he says. "What we do have is
the perception that there will be a shortage two years from now, when
all the new ethanol plants that are currently being built will come
online. Country grain elevators are also being squeezed for margins,
which is fueling the fire."
Just how high will grain prices go, what crop will bring the most profit
and when should farmers consider pulling the trigger on sales? "Those
are the $100,000, if not the $1 million, questions right now," says
Dennis Conley, University of Nebraska-Lincoln agricultural economist.
Whatever the correct answers turn out to be, the biofuels bandwagon has
brought a new era to U.S. grain sales, he says. "We just went through a
25-plus-year period when corn prices stayed around $2/bu.," points out
Conley. "Starting in September 2007, we moved out of that era."
Corn prices increased to more than $4/bu. in winter 2007, dropped to
about $3/bu. in fall 2007, and have jumped past $4/bu. again this
winter, notes Conley. In addition, Congress has mandated even more
growth in ethanol production by passing the Energy Bill last month, he
adds, plus the devaluation in the dollar continues to boost corn export
sales.
"Ethanol and the devaluation of the dollar, which makes grain exports
less expensive, are the two main factors that have been holding up the
corn prices," says Conley. "A third factor is that livestock prices
continue to stay relatively high, so that feed demand for corn has held
up well, too. All those factors put the livestock/feed-grain economy in
a new era."
The billion-dollar question is now whether a bust will come to
this new era of high grain prices and how soon it will occur, if it does
happen, says Conley. "The last time we saw corn and soybean prices
sustained at these levels was 1973, when Russian grain purchases drove
up an export-led demand for grain that lasted three or four consecutive
years," he says. "Currently, it looks like this new era for grain prices
will be sustained at least through 2008, because the futures markets are
telling us that. Unfortunately, my crystal ball doesn't extend past the
futures markets, but everything is notching up to a higher level than
what we've seen in a long time."
Farmers should keep in mind that grain markets usually drop a lot faster
than they go up, cautions Brock. "When selling grain, it's always better
to be two weeks early than one week late," he says. "It's pretty hard to
pass up $4.50-plus corn prices when they occur."
Conley agrees. "What I try to do is sell grain at a price that I know
will give me a nice net income for the year," he says. "If I hit or
exceed that price, then I take it and don't look back -- or forward.
That way, I make my decisions based on a price that ensures my
profitability."
Trying to hit the market high is very hard to do, adds Conley. "If you
miss the high price on the way up," he says, "you may also miss your
opportunity to sell at a profitable price when the market drops back
down."
For more information on corn futures prices, click here: www.cbot.com/cbot.
To read more grain market news and analysis from Brock Associates, click
here: www.brockreport.com
By John Pocock
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Expert
Predicts 2008 Corn Crop Won't Be Enough
The ethanol industry's appetite for corn is going to
surge in the coming months, but producers will likely lower corn acreage
for the 2008 crop, says Chris Hurt, Purdue University Extension
agricultural economist.
"This has two major implications," says Hurt. "First, the corn-based
ethanol industry will have excess production capacity and therefore
narrow margins, and at times negative margins, for periods during the
next two years. Second, corn prices will be historically high for the
recently harvested 2007 crop and for the 2008 crop and perhaps for the
2009 crop, too. We're looking at corn in the mid- to-high-$4 range."
As of Dec. 18, total ethanol production annually in the U.S. was 7.3
billion gallons, according to the Renewable Fuels Association (RFA). An
additional 6 billion gallons of capacity from plants under construction
is expected to come online in 2008 and be added to the 7.3 billion
gallons.
"The most rapid period of new plant openings will occur in the first
half of 2008, when we estimate the nation's annual capacity will surge
from the current 7.3 billion gallons to 11.8 billions gallons," says
Hurt. "This means the amount of corn required annually to feed that
capacity grows from about 2.5 billion bushels today to 4 billion bushels
by July 2008."
The rate of new plant openings will likely slow in the later half of
2008, when an additional 1.7 billion gallons of capacity will come
online, predicts Hurt. These new facilities would boost the nation's
annual ethanol production capacity to 13.5 billion gallons.
However, competition with other crops may significantly reduce the
availability of corn for ethanol "All major crops are in short supply in
the world and some will outbid corn for acreage," says Hurt. "The
shortest of the major crops are wheat and soybeans, and their prices are
expected to drive acres away from corn in 2008."
For more information about the U.S. ethanol industry and its production
capacity, click here: www.ethanolrfa.org/.
Source: Purdue University Extension
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Input Costs To Increase Dramatically In
2008
Costs for corn production are expected to be 24-35%
higher in 2008 than in 2007 depending on seed trait selection, says
Barry Ward, an Ohio State University (OSU) Extension economist. Soybean
costs are projected to be 23% higher, he adds.
"The cost of some variables, like fuel, is not as staggering as one
would expect, but one thing that we didn't expect to see were
dramatically higher potassium (K) and phosphorus (P) prices," notes
Ward. "The average price of P fertilizers is expected to increase
approximately 65% from 2007 to 2008. K prices are expected to increase
40% from 2007 to 2008."
Higher prices, increased transportation costs and higher demand -- both
internationally and stateside -- have led to price increases in K, P and
nitrogen (N), Ward says. Seed prices are also increasing, fueled by the
increasing number of seed packages that only contain transgenic trait
hybrids.
"Seed company data indicates prices for 2008 to be 5-10% higher," he
points out. Despite the impending higher costs for 2008, Ward says
farmers can take steps to potentially cut costs:
- Evaluate seed choice carefully. "If a non-transgenic hybrid performs
well, don't buy a pricier transgenic hybrid that you don't need," he
advises. "Refer to OSU and company research to make the best seed
selections."
- Consider crop protection chemicals as an alternative to transgenic
hybrids. "Crop protection chemical prices have remained fairly flat over
the last two years and several products have seen price decreases due to
the prevalence of generic products in the marketplace," says Ward.
"Increases of 3-4% are predicted for 2008."
- Take advantage of short-term fertilizer storage when fertilizer
prices dip during seasonal lows or changes in the market.
- Treat fertilizer purchases the same as market analysis of grain.
"Make fertilizer evaluation a year-round activity," recommends Ward.
"Spreading out your purchases and buying at several different times
should result in a better price average over the long run as you average
your high-priced purchases with your low-priced purchases."
- Consider alternatives to purchased fertilizer, such as manure
application.
- Change agricultural production practices by incorporating cover
crops as an alternative N source.
For more information on how to manage crop production costs, refer to
OSU Extension's Ag Manager newsletter at ohioagmanager.osu.edu, or
contact Barry Ward at (614) 688-3959 or ward.8@osu.edu.
Source: Ohio State University
Extension
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Input Buying
Strategies For Spring
The sooner you make cropping decisions, the sooner you
can lock in your input needs. And with fertilizer and petroleum markets
expected to stay volatile through 2008, ensuring product supply could be
your biggest risk to manage.
Industry experts offer the following tips for making this season's input
buys:
- Take advantage of discounts for seed, fertilizer and crop protection
products and talk with your cooperative or dealer to make sure you're
getting the best deals they offer.
- Lock in fertilizer supplies early for spring and start considering
fall needs. Prices will likely continue to edge up through spring, and
supplies will be tight.
- Buy and book fuel deliveries ahead of time. Don't get caught with an
empty or low fuel tank during the busy planting season. You might even
consider buying a bigger fuel tank.
- Study your production costs so that you know just where your margins
lie.
- Forward-market your crop at the same time that you make input
purchases to lock in prices and profit.
- Assemble a team of experts to advise you about your input and crop
production needs. Product specialists, crop consultants and your loan
officer can all help you make sure you're getting the right inputs at a
good price.
To read more information about input buying strategies, click here: farmindustrynews.com/crop-protection/fertilizer/season_input_outlook/.
By Peg Zenk
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Does Corn On
Corn Pay?
While commodity prices can change in a flash, it's
still a good bet that more than 90 million acres of corn will be planted
in 2008 to satisfy a strong demand. That has a lot of producers
continuing to weigh the opportunities of ditching traditional crop
rotations and planting continuous corn.
"A key issue for producers is whether corn on corn is a long-term or
year-by-year decision," says Jess Lowenberg-DeBoer, agricultural
economist at Purdue University. "For key portions of the Midwest, the
jury is still out on the economic viability of long-term corn-on-corn
production." Continuous corn production means higher production costs."
Producers should consider three main factors if contemplating a shift to
more corn, says Bruce Erickson, director of cropping systems management
at Purdue University. Those factors are: their area's (and their farm's)
ratio of corn yield to soybean yield, the price ratio of corn to
soybeans and overall input costs.
"There are areas of the country that have raised continuous corn
successfully for many years," Erickson says. "In those areas, corn has
typically done better relative to soybeans." A typical ratio of corn
production to soybean production is around 3 bu. to 1 bu. (assuming
150-bu./acre corn yields and 50-bu./acre soybean yields). In better
corn-producing areas, that ratio can be somewhat higher than 3 to 1,
whereas in areas that favor soybeans the ratio may be less than that.
Another ratio is the corn price to soybean price. Driving the market one
year ago was a price ratio that heavily favored corn. But markets, like
they always do, have adjusted to the conditions, and recently that ratio
has narrowed. "Historically, what we typically observe is a 2.5-1
ratio," Erickson explains. "So if corn is at $3.75, an equivalent
soybean price would be $9.37."
The final factor in the corn or soybeans decision is input costs. And
with corn-on-corn production typically needing 30-40 lbs. of additional
nitrogen (N) per year, and N prices skyrocketing, many producers may
decide to return to a corn-soybean rotation.
To read the rest of this article on the economics of raising corn
following corn, click here: farmindustrynews.com/seed/corn_on_corn/.
By Mark Moore
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'Grow Your Own Nitrogen' Workshop Jan.
12
Farmers interested in reducing the cost of inputs and
growing nitrogen (N) to produce organic matter and build soil health can
attend a "Grow Your Own Nitrogen" workshop from 1 to 4:30 p.m. Jan. 12
in Lincoln, NE.
The workshop, sponsored by the Organic Crop Improvement Association
Nebraska Chapter No. 1 and University of Nebraska-Lincoln (UNL) Organic
Farming Systems, will be held in the Hardin Hall Auditorium on UNL's
East Campus. To register, call Pat Bathke at 402-584-3837 by Jan. 7.
"This is a really great workshop for farmers interested in reducing
inputs and saving dollars," says Liz Sarno, UNL Extension educator and
organic project coordinator. "Farmers can gain a lot of knowledge about
cover crops and reduce their dependency on anhydrous ammonia for N
fertilizer, which doesn't last as long or add organic matter to the
soil."
The main speaker is Jeremy Singer, a research agronomist and lead
scientist at the National Soil Tilth Laboratory in Ames, IA. His
speaking points include the various uses of cover crops, the use of
cover crops in the Corn Belt and the work of USDA's Agricultural
Research Service on cover crops.
Source: University of Nebraska-Lincoln
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Oil Hits $100 For First Time
Ever
Crude oil prices on the New York Mercantile Exchange
soared to $100/barrel on Wednesday, Jan. 2, and closed at a record
$99.62, underscoring the urgent need for cost-effective renewable fuels
such as ethanol.
"Consumers were welcomed to the new year with crude oil prices reaching
a record $100/barrel for the first time ever, causing the price tag for
our nation's expensive addiction to foreign oil to soar to more than $1
billion/day," says Brian Jennings, executive vice president of the
American Coalition for Ethanol (ACE). "For the sake of the nation's
economic health, our new year's resolution must be to put the brakes on
this costly and risky reliance on oil and accelerate our use of
domestically produced ethanol."
To read more information about the need for ethanol in light of record
oil prices, click here: cornandsoybeandigest.com/biofuels.
Source: American Coalition for Ethanol
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This Week In Petroleum:
$100/Barrel?
Crude oil prices, which settled Wednesday, Jan. 2 at a
new nominal record price of $99.62/barrel, are near $100/barrel for the
second time in recent months. While oil markets are expected to remain
tight and the average price of crude oil in 2008 is expected to be well
above the average price of about $72/barrel (for West Texas Intermediate
crude oil) seen in 2007, the Energy Information Administration (EIA)
expects average monthly crude oil prices to drop throughout most of
2008, reflecting increases in supply from both OPEC and non-OPEC
countries and the impact of slowing economic growth on demand.
To read the rest of EIA's "This Week In Petroleum," which includes
information on gasoline, residential heating oil and propane prices,
click here: tonto.eia.doe.gov/oog/info/twip/twip.asp.
Source: Energy Information
Administration
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Plan for Maximum Use Of Fertilizer
N
How high will the price of fertilizer nitrogen (N) go?
I'm not sure that anyone knows. I surely don't. We all know that
producers don't have control of prices. However, they do have control of
management practices that could have an effect on how efficiently
fertilizer N is used. A recent call from a young farmer is a good
illustration of this point.
This farmer is an excellent manager and is always striving for high
yields. He was concerned that he was going to have to increase N rates
at a time when prices were going through the roof. Devoted to
conservation tillage, he was applying 28-0-0 in contact with residue
from a previous corn crop without any incorporation. Although this is a
convenient method of application, there is some risk involved. Research
throughout the Corn Belt has shown that 28-0-0 applied in a way so that
there is contact with crop residue is not as effective as 28-0-0 that is
incorporated in some way.
To read the rest of this article on how to maximize fertilizer N use for
corn, click here:
minnesotafarmguide.com/blog/?p=54.
By George Rehm, University of Minnesota
Extension soil scientist
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Farm Bill
Update
The U.S. Senate finally passed their version of the
new farm bill on December 14, by a 79-14 margin. The U.S. House of
Representatives passed a new farm bill in late July 2007. The farm bill
now will go to a U.S. House and Senate Conference Committee, probably in
late January, to work out differences in the two versions of the new
farm bill.
We are a lot closer to a new farm bill than we were a few weeks ago;
however, there are still a lot of key issues to be worked out by the
House and Senate Conference Committee. The key items to be resolved
appear to be the budget issues, arriving at acceptable payment limit
language and working out the details of revenue-based counter-cyclical
payments (CCPs).
The Senate farm bill would keep the current payment cap of
$40,000/individual for direct payments and lower the limit to $60,000
for CCPs, while the House farm bill would increase the direct payment
limit to $60,000/individual, and continue the $65,000 CCP limit.
The House farm bill would forbid farm program commodity and conservation
payments to anyone with an adjusted gross income (AGI) above $1 million,
with no exceptions. The Senate farm bill would keep the current $2.5
million limit for 2008, lower it to $1 million in 2009 and $750,000 in
2010 and beyond. The proposed House payment limit also includes
conservation payments, while the Senate and Administration proposals do
not.
The House farm bill would also require producers with an AGI of $500,000
to $1 million to derive at least 67% of their income from agriculture
sources in order to be eligible for farm program payments, while the
proposed 67% income threshold would be enacted at the payment limits
listed earlier in the Senate farm bill. Currently, that AGI limit from
agricultural production is at 75% if above the $2.5 million AGI
limit.
To read more articles about the farm bill by Kent Thiesse, click here:
cornandsoybeandigest.com/kentthiesse/.
By Kent Thiesse, VP, Minn Star Bank
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Minnesota Corn Hybrid Performance Results Now
Available
Results of the 2007 Minnesota Corn Hybrid Evaluation
Program are now available on the Internet. To access the report, visit
the Southern Research and Outreach Center Web site at: sroc.coafes.umn.edu/research/agronomy.
The corn-yield performance trials were conducted by the University of
Minnesota Agricultural Experiment Station to provide unbiased
information for corn growers when choosing which hybrids to buy and
grow. The program was financed in part by entry fees from private seed
corn companies that chose to enter their hybrids for testing. A paper
copy (the Varietal Trials publication) will be available at local
Extension offices.
Trials were conducted at multiple test locations in three Minnesota
zones: southern (Lamberton, Waseca and Plainview), central (Morris and
Rosemount) and northern (Staples, Rothsay and Crookston), with
appropriate relative maturity hybrids for each location. The benefit of
multiple test locations in a single year is that they represent possible
weather patterns an individual farm may encounter in the future. Weather
variability influences hybrid performance more than any other variable
since weather interacts with most other yield-limiting factors.
If a hybrid performs consistently well over multiple sites (weather
patterns), then it likely will perform well on your farm in the future.
Each seed corn company (35 companies participated) could enter up to six
hybrids per zone. Reported yields are adjusted to 15.5% grain
moisture.
By Dave Nicolai and Tom Hoverstad, University of
Minnesota Extension
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NCGA
Highlights: 'Seven for 2007'
From the passage of key legislation to record
production numbers to welcoming new member associations, the National
Corn Growers Association (NCGA) has much to celebrate as it enters a new
year. Here is a collection of association highlights for 2007 that are
worth toasting, in no particular order:
- President Bush signed federal energy legislation Dec. 19 with a
renewable fuels standard that mirrors NCGA's vision of 15 billion
gallons of corn ethanol by 2015. This effort was strongly supported by
both houses of Congress and endorsed wholeheartedly by the president,
starting with his State of the Union address in January.
- The U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) will release its final
production figures on Jan. 11, but preliminary estimates show much for
farmers to be proud of -- 13.2 billion bushels of corn produced. This is
the largest crop in U.S. history and 25% larger than the 2006 crop. In
addition, the estimated average yield of 153 is one of the highest
ever.
- Along with this high production, interest in NCGA's National Corn
Yield Contest was at an all-time high. Not only were there a record
number of entrants (4,932, 56 higher than 2006), but the 27 national
winners had verified yields averaging more than 298 bu./acre. Two dozen
entrants posted yields of more than 300 bu./acre in what can only be
recognized as a clear demonstration of the effectiveness of corn
biotechnology.
- Also when it comes to record-breaking entries, Commodity Classic
gained in prestige in 2007 with the highest number of trade-show booths,
675, visited by a near-record 4,000 registered attendees. It was also
the year Commodity Classic was joined by a third industry partner, the
National Association of Wheat Growers. Previously, Commodity Classic
was the annual convention and trade show of just NCGA and the American
Soybean Association.
- For nearly two decades, corn growers and their allies have been
pushing hard for needed improvements to U.S. inland waterways,
especially the upper Mississippi and Illinois rivers. In 2007, Congress
passed the Water Resources Development Act, authorizing needed repairs,
and then overrode a presidential veto in early November to take a major
step in getting this important work off the ground.
- Along with high production figures, NCGA celebrates record-setting
corn exports. According to figures released by USDA in December, the
corn export forecast for 2007-2008 stands at a projected 2.45 billion
bushels. With a newly enacted free trade agreement with Peru and several
others in the pipeline, and with duty-free U.S. corn imports to Mexico
beginning Jan. 1, U.S. corn growers now have more export
opportunities.
- As a national trade association, NCGA recognizes the importance of
its state partners and is always at work to expand its influence while
helping the states expand their own. In 2007, we were pleased to welcome
two new affiliates, the Alabama Wheat and Feed Grains Commission and the
Arkansas Corn and Grain Sorghum Board. NCGA now represents 48 state
affiliates: 25 state grower associations and 23 state checkoff
associations.
For more information about the NCGA, visit its Web site at: www.ncga.com.
Source: National Corn Growers
Association
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Entomologist: Don't Let Volunteer Corn Report
For Duty
Bt could stand for "big trouble" in the years ahead if
farmers aren't careful in their use of biotech corn, says Christian
Krupke, a Purdue University entomologist.
Corn varieties containing Bacillus thuringiensis, or Bt, genes to
control corn rootworms and corn borers, and genetically modified to
withstand Roundup herbicide, could become more susceptible to rootworms
unless growers keep soybean fields free of volunteer corn and continue
planting refuge acres, says Krupke. "We need to stay a step ahead of
rootworm resistance development," he says. "If there's one thing we know
about insects, it's that they figure out a way to adapt to whatever we
throw at them."
Rootworms are a major threat to corn crops, costing farmers about $1
billion/year in yield losses and control expenses. About 30% of
Indiana's estimated 6.45 million corn acres were planted to multi-trait
biotech varieties this year, including the Bt/Roundup triple stacks.
While transgenic varieties have helped growers boost corn yields, those
varieties could unintentionally produce stronger, tougher-to-control
rootworms when farmers rotate their cornfields to soybeans the following
year, notes Krupke. Rootworms feeding on volunteer corn -- maverick
plants that grow from seed produced by the previous year's crop -- are
exposed to Bt but at less-than-toxic levels.
"What we found was that in areas where triple-stack corn was planted in
2006 and soybeans in 2007, we had a great deal of volunteer corn in some
of those fields," says Krupke. "Most of that volunteer corn showed up as
being Roundup Ready and as having the Bt gene for rootworm.
"The problem is that the Bt, for whatever reason, isn't expressed at the
same level as the Bt that you'd get in off-the-shelf corn," he adds. "So
you get a lot of rootworm larvae eating that volunteer corn, and they
are able to survive on it. That's a concern because now you're getting
insects exposed to sub-lethal doses of Bt that survive to mate and lay
eggs and possibly develop stronger offspring. That is exactly what we
don't want."
Volunteer corn is considered a weed and is usually controlled
with herbicides. Controlling that corn becomes more difficult when it is
both resistant to glyphosate, the active ingredient in Roundup, and
growing in Roundup Ready soybeans. In recent years about 90% of Indiana
soybean acres have been planted to Roundup Ready varieties.
"Most soybean growers have relied on Roundup as their No. 1 -- and
sometimes only -- weed control for a long, long time," says Krupke.
Farmers have several herbicide options for controlling volunteer corn,
says Bill Johnson, Purdue Extension weed scientist. "To control
volunteer Roundup Ready corn in soybeans, farmers should use Assure II,
Select Max, Fusion or Raptor tankmixed with glyphosate," Johnson
advises.
Another factor that could hasten rootworm resistance to Bt corn is
improper or insufficient planting of refuge corn. Planting refuges
alongside Bt corn crops is required by law.
"A refuge is anything that is not Bt corn," says Krupke. "So when you
plant Bt corn for rootworm or corn borer, for every 80 acres you plant
of the Bt you have to plant 20 acres of the refuge."
Farmers need to remain vigilant when they plant Bt corn to ensure the
technology is around for a long time, says Krupke. "If we don't do the
things that we need to do, then we're eventually going to have products
that are not effective against rootworm," he says. "The two primary
things would be to continue planting the refuge and, in areas where you
are rotating corn with soybeans, clean up any volunteer corn that you
have in the field. You need to do the latter because volunteer corn is a
host, and that's where rootworms can develop. There will be a lot of
eggs in those first-year soybean fields that were in corn the year
before."
For more information on managing corn rootworms and other corn pests,
click here: www.entm.purdue.edu/entomology.
Source: Ohio State University Extension
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Feedback
Wanted: A Note From The Corn E-Digest Editor
It's the start of a new year and time for the editor
of this newsletter to evaluate past performance and make decisions about
changes, if any, that could be made to better serve you, the reader.
If you have any thoughts on what you like or dislike about past issues
or have ideas on what you'd like to see more of in future issues, please
write to me (John Pocock) at: jpocock@csdigest.com. I'm
especially in need of ideas for topics that you would like me to cover
in the weeks and months ahead. As always, you're also welcome to write
to me if you have concerns or questions about this issue.
I hope to hear from you soon. Thanks for your readership!
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