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Odds Plummet For Early Corn
Planting
Intense rainfall that swept across much of the
southern and eastern Corn Belt last week significantly reduces the odds
that corn growers will be able to plant early in 2008, says Mike
Palecki, regional climatologist at the Midwestern Regional Climate
Center.
“Areas from Oklahoma to southern Missouri and southern Illinois and on
into Indiana and Ohio now have really saturated soil conditions,” says
Palecki. “This region will need a lot of drying out before field
preparations will be possible.”
The lowlands near rivers affected by flooding will be significantly
delayed, points out Palecki. “Other well-drained areas will still have
delays of several weeks compared to normal, which will substantially
reduce the chances for early planting,” he says. “Over the weekend,
even more fields near rivers have become inundated as the flood waters
have moved downstream.”
Although last week’s rainfall missed more northern areas of the Corn
Belt, that region also has saturated soils that will need a dry period
to allow fieldwork to begin, says Palecki. “Parts of Iowa,
southeastern Minnesota, southern Wisconsin, northern Illinois and on
into Michigan have substantial snow packs that are still melting, and
those areas are likely to have wet soils into mid-April,” he says.
“Many of these areas already had saturated soil conditions in the
fall. Combined with above-normal snowfall during winter, this means they
will start out spring very wet.”
In northern areas, farmers are waiting for warmth, which has been
slow in coming, says Palecki. “From Iowa northward, we’ll be
fortunate to have normal temperatures during the next month,” he says.
“If spring warmth doesn’t get there soon, even on well-drained soils
there will be planting delays. Also, the latest Climate Prediction
Center forecast for April indicates increased chances of above-normal
precipitation in the eastern Dakotas and much of Minnesota.”
Yet, the rains that fell over the southern and eastern Corn Belt last
week will be the region’s most serious precipitation for some time,
predicts Palecki. “The eastern Corn Belt might have more rain events
coming through again soon, but they will be of much less intensity than
this major rain event that just passed through,” he says. “In
comparison, the western Corn Belt will probably have more of a chance to
dry in the next couple weeks.”
With La Niña weather patterns likely to continue into spring, the odds
increase that drier conditions will eventually begin to affect the Corn
Belt, he adds. “However, the cooler-than-normal temperatures and all
the wet weather that we’ve had recently adds uncertainty on how things
will turn out for corn growers,” says Palecki. “The probabilities
for early planting are lower than normal, but that doesn’t mean it
won’t still happen, especially if you’re in an area that missed the
most recent heavy precipitation event or the heavy snow pack that other
areas have received.”
To learn more about current streamflow conditions and the potential for
flooding, click here: water.usgs.gov/waterwatch/.
To learn more about the potential for drought this summer, click here:
www.drought.unl.edu/dm/monitor.html.
By John Pocock
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Cold-Tolerance Key To No-till Corn
Planting
No-till corn production would likely reap fewer
rewards without good, cold-tolerant hybrids to choose from, says Don
Robinson, a farmer who grows continuous no-till corn in northern
Maryland. “You have to pay close attention to the seed that you use
with no-till,” he says. “Cold tolerance is a must when planting corn
early, or you could try one of the new polymer-coated seeds.”
Soils warm up more slowly after no-till corn production than they do
after other crops or other tillage systems that leave less crop residue
on the soil surface, Robinson points out. To prevent delays in planting
no-till corn, cold tolerance becomes vital, he adds.
“A cold-tolerant seed will still germinate and start growing in the
ground in the 50° range,” notes Robinson. “Some hybrid seeds will
not germinate until the temperature is closer to 55°, and if the ground
remains cold for a longer period, the seed may rot before it
germinates.”
Cold-tolerance can be a very beneficial hybrid trait, agrees Bob
Kratochvil, a University of Maryland Extension grain and oil crops
specialist. However, polymer seed coats may prove problematic, he
cautions.
“I would recommend the use of the temperature-activated polymer seed
coating only for corn planted exceptionally early – approximately
March 25 through April 15 for our region,” says Kratochvil. “I would
be much less likely to suggest farmers use this technology for corn that
is planted during the optimum window, which runs from about April 20
through May 10, as there will likely be delayed emergence with the
polymer-coated seed.”
Polymer seed coats may work in some situations, but they have yet to
prove their value for most corn growers under normal planting
conditions, confirms Roger Elmore, Extension corn specialist, Iowa State
University (ISU). “Polymer coatings have not shown much promise in
Iowa,” says Elmore. He refers interested farmers to an ISU Web link on
the topic at: www.agronext.iastate.edu/corn/production.
By John Pocock
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Corn Acres Too Low Means Prices May
Spike?
New-crop corn futures spent the entire winter in
dormancy. What does that mean? New-crop corn futures did not provide
sufficient price incentives to get producers to plant enough corn.
Rather, the “hot” markets all winter were wheat – especially
spring wheat – and soybeans. As a result, we can expect the March 31,
prospective plantings report from USDA to indicate that producers
intended to sharply increase soybean and spring wheat acres at the
expense of corn acres.
Planted corn acreage should be about 88 million acres. This will be a
reduction of 5.6 million acres from last year. With trend yields at
153.5 bu./acre, this would provide a crop at about 12.4 billion bushels,
a reduction of 600 million bushels from last year.
To continue reading this article about the outlook for corn prices and
acreage in 2008, click here: www.agecon.purdue.edu/extension/prices.
By Chris Hurt, Purdue University
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Corn Market
Outlook
Price volatility continues, only now there is more up
and down price movement versus mostly up since the end of September.
December 2008 corn futures, new crop, traded in a 50¢ range the 10
trading days before this report. A high of $5.84 to a low of $5.41 four
days later to new highs of $5.90 before going back as low as $5.43. And
we haven't even gotten to the growing season.
Get used to it. If you want to do some pricing, you will need to be
ready.
To continue reading this article about the corn market outlook ahead of
USDA’s March 31 quarterly stocks and prospective plantings reports,
click here: www.msu.edu/user/hilker.
By Jim Hilker, Michigan State
University
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Cost To
Produce Corn And Soybeans In Illinois -- 2007
In 2007 the total of all economic costs/acre for
growing corn in Illinois averaged $563 in the northern section, $554 in
the central section for farmland with high soil ratings, $526 in the
central section for farmland with low soil ratings and $484 in the
southern section. Soybean costs/acre were $441, $427, $394 and $366,
respectively. Costs were lower in southern Illinois primarily because of
lower land costs.
The total of all economic costs per buhsel in the different sections of
the state ranged from $2.76 to $3.34 for corn and from $7.58 to $9.89
for soybeans. Variations in this cost were related to weather, yields
and land quality.
To continue reading this article about costs to produce corn and
soybeans in Illinois, click here: www.farmdoc.uiuc.edu/manage.
By Dale Latz, University of Illinois
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Pesticide
Drift Reduction Starts Now
The number of drift complaints in 2007 regarding
ground applications of agricultural pesticides received by the Iowa
Department of Agriculture and Land Stewardship increased by 36% compared
to 2006, and was nearly double that of 2004.
The first step in preventing problems with drift is to develop an
effective drift management strategy prior to the spray season. Important
considerations include:
- equipping sprayers with appropriate spray nozzles
- effective use of drift retardants
- sprayer setup – boom height, operating pressure and driving
speed
- identification of drift sensitive locations (organic production,
vineyards or other high-value crops, concerned neighbors)
- proper education of personnel operating the sprayers.
While advances in spray technology have improved our ability to keep
pesticides on target, successful management of drift ultimately relies
on good judgment by the sprayer operator. For more information on spray
drift management, visit the following PDF Web link: www.extension.iastate.edu/Publications.
Bob Hartzler, ISU Extension agronomist
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CSP Sign-Up
Begins April 18 In 51 Watersheds Nationwide
Agriculture Secretary Ed Schafer announced a sign-up
for the Conservation Security Program (CSP) that will be available
starting on April 18 to approximately 64,000 potentially eligible farms
and ranches in 51 watersheds covering more than 23.7 million acres.
“As President Bush has said, those who depend on the land to make a
living are the best stewards of the land,” says Schafer. “Since the
first sign-up in 2004, CSP has offered payments for enhancing natural
resources, rewarding those farmers and ranchers who are model
conservationists, and providing incentives for other producers to
achieve those same high standards of conservation in agriculture.”
The CSP sign-up is open in the 51 watersheds from April 18 to May 16.
The sign-up announcement and specific program requirements are being
published in the Federal Register.
To continue reading this article about the CSP sign up, click here: www.usda.gov/wps.
Source: USDA
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Ohio Corn May Be At Risk For Stewart's
Wilt
Southern Ohio's corn crop may face a high risk of
Stewart's bacterial wilt and leaf blight this growing season. The
disease is caused by a bacterium carried and spread by adult flea
beetles.
Based on the flea beetle index – research conducted by Ohio State
University (OSU) Extension and Ohio Agricultural Research and
Development Center specialists this winter – flea beetle populations
are predicted to be high in southern Ohio, and low to moderate in
northern and west-central Ohio. As a result, cornfields in southern
counties could be at a greater risk for the disease.
“The occurrence of Stewart's bacterial disease is totally dependent on
the level of bacteria-carrying flea beetle survival over the winter,”
says Ron Hammond, an OSU Extension entomologist. “For many years the
winter temperatures have been used to predict the risk of Stewart's
disease because higher populations of the flea beetle survive during
mild winters than during cold winters.”
To continue reading this article about the potential threat to corn in
Ohio from Stewart’s bacterial disease in 2008, click here: extension.osu.edu/~news.
To read an OSU fact sheet on Stewart’s bacterial disease and leaf
blight of corn, click here: ohioline.osu.edu/ac-fact/0037.html.
Source: Ohio State University
Extension
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Indiana
Meetings Feature Grain-Pricing Strategies
Chris Hurt and Corinne Alexander, Purdue University
agricultural economists, will host an IP-videoconference March 31 to
provide an outlook following the USDA’s grain stocks and prospective
plantings reports released earlier that morning.
The meeting, which is scheduled to begin at 7 p.m., is free and open to
the public and may be viewed at 18 sites across Indiana. “Right now
it's an acreage battle,” says Alexander. “We know that no matter
what is planted, there isn't going to be enough corn, beans and wheat to
meet all of the demand.”
The March 31 Prospective Plantings report will be the first indicator of
what U.S. farmers intend to plant and will likely cause a large reaction
in the grain and livestock markets, says Alexander.
To continue reading this article about grain-pricing strategies and the
upcoming ag outlook meeting in Indiana, click here: news.uns.purdue.edu.
Source: Purdue University Extension
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Nebraska
Farmland Values And Cash Rents Rise Sharply
The average value of Nebraska farmland rose 23% over
the past 12 months – the steepest annual percentage gain ever recorded
in the 30-year history of the University of Nebraska-Lincoln Nebraska
Farm Real Estate Market Survey. Preliminary results place the state’s
all-land average value at $1,425/acre as of Feb. 1, 2008. This gain,
combined with the gains of the past four years, puts the current
all-land average value more than 88% higher than the 2003 level.
Today’s level represents a new historical peak value, not only in
nominal terms but also in real (inflation-adjusted) terms – the
previous peak in inflation-adjusted dollars was in 1981, just prior to a
major asset devaluation during the farm-crisis years of the mid-1980s.
To continue reading this article from the March 2008 issue of
Cornhusker Economics, click here: www.agecon.unl.edu.
By Bruce Johnson, University of
Nebraska-Lincoln
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Agricultural Markets And Fertilizer
Update
Between fertilizer and cash-rent costs, most producers
don't know whether to celebrate record high grain prices or cry.
Fertilizer companies have been telling stories of the weak dollar
causing large exports or loss of imports. January's trade numbers were
the first to confirm this development.
The U.S. exported more nitrogen fertilizer in January than the previous
six years combined. Guess who it went to? You're wrong. Read the report
and you'll be surprised.
What to do about it? Sell a proportional amount of future production to
lock in any fertilizer purchases for 2009 and beyond.
For more information or to read the full report, click here: www.wellsfargo.com/com/research.
By Michael Swanson, Wells Fargo Bank
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Interesting
Statistics For National Ag Week
National Ag Week was being celebrated March 16-22 all
across the U.S. Following are some interesting statistics about
today’s agriculture industry:
- The top-five agriculture products in the U.S. are cattle and calves,
dairy products, broilers, corn and soybeans. The U.S. produces 46% of
the world’s soybeans, 41% of the world’s corn, 20% of the world’s
cotton and 13% of the world’s wheat.
- It takes the average American about 35 days to earn enough
disposable income to pay for all the food that is consumed at home and
away from home during the entire year. By comparison, it takes consumers
more than 100 days of earned income to pay all federal, state and local
taxes each year.
- About 19¢ of every consumer dollar spent on food actually goes to
the farmer. The other 81¢ is spent on processing, packaging, marketing,
transportation, distribution and retail costs.
To continue reading this article about facts to consider when
celebrating ag week, click here: cornandsoybeandigest.com/ag-issues/news/0319-national-ag-week/.
By Kent Thiesse
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Pathologist: Check Fungicide Yield
Trials
Farmers who apply fungicide to corn and soybeans
because they believe the chemical boosts yields could be treating their
crops with little more than a placebo, says Greg Shaner, a Purdue
University Extension plant pathologist.
After two years of field trials to determine whether a fungicide
provides a yield response in healthy crops, the data are inconclusive,
says Shaner. “It's almost a coin toss as to whether producers will get
their money back in increased crop yields from fungicide treatments,”
he says. “Producers probably should only use a fungicide if they have
reason to think they will have disease pressure.”
To continue reading this article about fungicide treatments for corn and
soybean crops in Indiana, click here: cornandsoybeandigest.com/ag-issues/news/0319-fungicide-yield-boost-claims/.
To read recommendations about using a fungicide for corn in Ohio, click
here: corn.osu.edu/story.php?setissueID=180&storyID=1083.
Source: Purdue University Extension
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Push Underway To Fund Lock And Dam
Improvements
The National Corn Growers Association (NCGA) has
joined with agriculture groups to seek congressional support for
investment in America’s transportation system. Specifically, the
groups are seeking $50 million in the FY 2009 Energy & Water
Appropriations bill for the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers, Department of
Civil Works, Navigation and Ecosystem Sustainability Program (NESP).
With the passage of the 2007 Water Resources Development Act (WRDA), the
Army Corps of Engineers is authorized to implement the NESP for the
upper Mississippi River system. This new dual-purpose authority will
integrate restoration of the river’s important habitats with
modernization of the navigation system to reduce barge traffic delays.
“For continued success, the U.S. agricultural industry needs efficient
transportation networks, which is why we have been long-time advocates
for improvements to our inland waterway system,” the group’s letter
to Congress states. “NESP is crucial to farmers who depend on the
inland waterway system to deliver their crops to the global marketplace
and to businesses that rely on the system to move their raw materials
and products.”
In written statements to the House and Senate Subcommittee on Energy and
Water Development appropriations, NCGA President Ron Litterer noted that
our country’s inland navigation system plays a critical role in our
economy, moving more than 1 billion tons of domestic commerce valued at
more than $300 billion.
To read the joint letter to Congress regarding energy and water
development appropriations, click here: www.ncga.com/letters/2008/Letter%20re%20Energy%20and%20Water%20Appropriations%203-14-08.pdf.
To read testimony submitted to the House Subcommittee on Energy and
Water Development Appropriations, click here: www.ncga.com/public_policy/testimonies/PDFs/NCGA%20House%20Statement%20on%20Energy%20and%20Water%20Development%20Appropriations%203-19-08.pdf.
Similar testimony was also provided to the appropriate Senate office.
To urge Congress to fund lock and dam improvements on the upper
Mississippi River, click here: capwiz.com/ncga/home/.
Source: National Corn Growers
Association
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Heating
Fuels Prices Reach Record Levels
With crude oil prices over $100/barrel and cold
weather in many parts of the country driving up demand, heating fuel
prices have been setting new record highs. With residential prices from
the beginning of winter to mid-March averaging $3.28/gal. for heating
oil and $2.46/gal. for propane, and this week’s average heating oil
price above $3.85, prices for the winter as a whole are likely to set a
new nominal record.
As discussed in This Week In Petroleum (TWIP), high crude oil
prices have been an important factor underlying high petroleum product
prices this season, including residential heating oil and propane.
To continue reading this article about prices for fuel oil and other
petroleum products, such as diesel fuel, click here: tonto.eia.doe.gov/oog/info/twip/twip.asp.
Source: Energy Information
Administration
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Time To Cut Gas Taxes? -- A Note From The
Corn E-Digest Editor
With some economists recently predicting gas prices
will likely top $4/gal. this summer, it may be time for state and
federal legislators to consider reducing motor-fuel taxes on consumers,
including farmers. However, in my home state of Minnesota, the opposite
occurred last month, with legislators overriding Gov. Pawlenty’s veto
of a transportation bill that will significantly increase the gas tax in
this state.
This led me to ponder: Exactly what percentage of my regular fill up
goes to state and federal coffers?
According to the American Petroleum Institute (API), the average state
imposes a 28.6¢/gal. tax on gasoline and 29.3¢/gal. tax on diesel
fuel. Federal taxes average 18.4¢/gal. for gasoline and 24.4¢/gal. for
diesel. To see the specific tax fees that your state imposes on gasoline
and diesel fuel, visit the following API Web link: www.api.org/statistics/fueltaxes/index.cfm?renderforprint=1.
For those of you who go to this link, you’ll see colored maps that you
can download, which show states with higher-than-average motor fuel
taxes in red and states with lower-than-average motor fuel taxes in
blue. The maps aren’t updated yet to show the impact of Minnesota’s
recent gas tax hike, but Illinois, Michigan and Indiana are some
examples of states with higher-than-average gasoline and diesel fuel
taxes. Kentucky, Missouri and Tennessee are examples of states with
lower-than-average gasoline and diesel fuel taxes.
If you have a comment on how diesel or gasoline fuel taxes impact your
bottom line as a corn producer, please write to me (John Pocock) at: jpocock@csdigest.com. Just let me
know your name, where you farm, what your comment is and whether or not
I have permission to use your comment in a future Corn E-Digest
newsletter.
As always, you’re also welcome to write to me if you have a comment on
any other topic related to corn production or if you have concerns or
questions about this issue. I look forward to hearing from you. Thanks
for your readership!
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