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Frost, Stalk
Rot Threaten Corn Belt Bounty
Chilly temperatures came close to damaging maturing
corn plants in Minnesota, the Dakotas, Nebraska and Iowa last week, but
those plants can still reach maturity if temperatures stay close to
normal or above for a few more weeks, says Harry Hillaker, Iowa’s
state climatologist.
“[Last Tuesday’s] cold snap is probably the coldest morning we’ll
likely have for at least another week, if not longer,” says Hillaker.
“Iowa’s lowest temperatures occurred in valley bottom locations in
the west central part of the state, where temperatures dipped to 35°
F.”
The corn crop in Iowa is roughly two weeks behind the five-year average,
mostly due to late planting, reports Hillaker. “Ideally, we’d like
to see above-normal temperatures come in right now to help the crops
mature, but it probably won’t get that warm anytime soon,” he says.
“The long-range outlook is for temperatures to be close to normal,
which is not the best outlook, but at least it’s more favorable than
last week’s below-normal temperatures.”
The first hard frost occurs about Sept. 28 in northwestern Iowa and
about Oct. 15 for the southeastern portion of the state, says Hillaker.
The statewide average for the first hard freeze is about Oct. 6 or 7, he
adds.
However, the latest weather outlook suggests “the possibility for more
rain,” adds Hillaker. “The wet conditions that are in the forecast
will generally lower the likelihood that we’ll get a freeze.”
The risk of yield loss due to freezing temperatures is also
diminishing in the Eastern Corn Belt, says Jeff Rogers, Ohio’s state
climatologist. “I see no frost threat for at least the next 10
days,” he says. “With the recent return of moisture to the state,
the odds would probably be for a later freeze than for an earlier
freeze. Moisture in the air this time of year typically indicates that
warmer air currents are coming into the region from the Gulf of
Mexico.”
Historically, the earliest threat of freeze is Sept. 20 in the northern
part of Ohio and the last week of September for the rest of the state,
points out Rogers. The typical date for the first freeze in Ohio would
occur sometime between Oct. 5 and Oct. 18, he adds.
In addition to the threat of a killing frost, another concern for the
Eastern Corn Belt would be wind storms prior to harvest that could
topple corn in fields where stalk rot has developed, says Bob Nielsen,
Purdue University Extension corn specialist.
“In Indiana, we have an awful lot of acres that are shutting down
prematurely because of all the stresses we’ve had in the last 30
days,” he reports. “Indiana’s corn crop is still 1½ weeks behind
the five-year average and likely won’t reach 50% crop maturity until
the end of September. The final half of the crop will likely mature in
October. So, that is still a worry, but the cold snap [last week] will
delay maturation even further.
“It’s pretty tough for corn plants to recover from nighttime
temperatures in the 40s,” emphasizes Nielsen. “Previous stresses to
the crop have primarily been due to dry weather, but any kind of stress
during grain fill can cause stalk rot to develop.”
Both frost and stalk rot concerns are also ample in Iowa, says
Roger Elmore, Iowa State University Extension corn specialist.
“Most of the corn in Iowa is in the dent stage, which for normally
planted crops would require another 2-3 weeks to reach maturity,” says
Elmore. “However, replanted crops will likely need 4-5 more weeks to
mature. So, we’ll need a normal to slightly later-than-normal frost to
avoid yield loss for the majority of the corn crop.”
Last week’s chilly temperatures definitely set the corn crop back a
few days in development, says Elmore. “When you get into those low
temperatures, it really slows down growth,” he explains. “If
temperatures don’t warm up again soon, the last stages of growth may
take longer than normal to finish.”
Whether or not an early killing frost hits Iowa this fall, producers
should plan to be out checking individual fields prior to harvest,
advises Elmore. “Any fields that had some sort of stress this summer
should be examined closely for stalk strength,” he says. “Nitrogen
deficiency would be one type of stress that we’re seeing a lot this
year that could cause stalk rot to develop. In some fields, inadequate
rainfall during grain fill might be another.”
To track the latest temperature and precipitation outlook for your area,
click here: "www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/index.php.
To read an article about managing maturity, frost and dry-down rates in
Minnesota, click here: www.extension.umn.edu.
By John Pocock
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Six Tips For Harvesting Lodged 'Down'
Corn
When harvesting lodged or “down” corn, remember
to:
- Keep safety first.
- Reduce ground speed. Slow down and adjust the gathering chain
and snapping roll speed to match combine speed.
- Go against the grain. Combine corn the opposite direction
from which it leans.
- Catch the corn. Adjust gathering chains and the snapping
plate as close as possible to the stalks.
- Reach down low. Run the head as close to the ground as
possible. Be wary of rocks and uneven terrain.
- Be ready. Scout fields to anticipate harvest problems.
To learn more about harvesting lodged corn and specialized equipment for
doing so, click here: corn.agronomy.wisc.edu/AA/A050.htm
or here: www.maywes.com/shop/index.php?cPath=44_33_153.
By Joe Lauer, University of Wisconsin corn
agronomist
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USDA Corn Production Forecast Dips Slightly,
Still Second-Largest
In its monthly review of domestic crop production and
supply and demand, the USDA slightly lowered the production estimate of
the 2008 corn crop from 12.288 billion to 12.072 billion bushels,
decreasing the average national yield from 155 to 152.3 bu./acre. Both
numbers continue to represent the second-highest on record and are
higher than the average of the five previous crop years, the National
Corn Growers Association (NCGA) points out.
“We were expecting to see the numbers decrease a little, but we remain
optimistic about this year’s crop,” says NCGA President Ron
Litterer. “After such a bumper crop in 2007, we were faced with a
number of challenges as the 2008 season began. Our nation’s corn
growers have done a terrific job dealing with colder spring temperatures
and Midwest flooding, and we salute them for their hard work. We
continue to watch the weather as harvest gets under way.”
In its monthly World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates report,
the USDA cited August dryness in much of the Corn Belt for the lower
production estimate, and forecast that feed and residual use would
decrease 100 million bushels compared to the August report, to 5.1
billion bushels, because of increased sorghum feeding, lower expected
residual loss with the smaller crop, and higher expected prices. Ending
stocks would also be lowered, by 115 million bushels, to 1.018 billion
bushels, taking the majority of the reduced production projection.
Average crop price for field corn was raised a dime to $5.50, indicating
these adjustments will have little effect on the total supply demand
picture for corn.
To view the USDA’s monthly Crop Production report, click here:. usda.mannlib.cornell.edu.
To read the USDA’s monthly World Agricultural Supply and Demand
Estimates report, click here: usda.mannlib.cornell.edu/MannUsda.
Source: National Corn Growers
Association
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Crop Input Price Hikes Likely To Continue In
2009
A Purdue University agricultural economist recently
gazed into his crystal ball and saw big dollar signs representing input
costs for fertilizer, seed genetics, energy and land costs.
“The cost of growing corn, soybeans and wheat increased dramatically
for the 2008 crop and substantial increases are expected again for the
2009 growing season,” says Bruce Erickson, Purdue Extension cropping
systems management director. “Our preliminary budgets, based on an
assessment of the seed, chemical and fertilizer industries, show
variable costs for rotational corn increasing by 29%, compared to 40%
for soybeans and 39% for wheat.”
Last year's biggest price increases came from the cost of nitrogen (N)
fertilizers and fuels, which affected the cost of growing corn
relatively more than soybeans. “Those inputs are not expected to
increase at the same magnitude they did last year,” explains Erickson.
“Other inputs such as phosphorus and potassium, seed genetics and some
herbicides will cost more, so the cost of putting in a soybean crop is
projected to increase more than corn.”
While input prices are up substantially, market prices for crops are up
too, he points out. “For instance, if we look back a couple years at
the ratio of the cost of N/lb. to the market price received, it might
look something like N at 25¢/lb. and $2.50/bu. for corn,” says
Erickson. “Now it looks more like 60¢/lb. N and $6/bu. corn.”
Even though margins look good for the 2009 year, the relative return of
each input should be evaluated because of the different price changes
for various inputs, advises Erickson. For the 2009 crop, potash prices
could exceed $900/ton, anhydrous ammonia more than $1,000/ton and
diammonium phosphate or DAP about $1,100 or more/ton, he points out. In
preliminary budgets, these numbers translate to fertilizer costs of
$200/acre for corn and more than $100/acre for soybeans.
To continue reading this article about the forecast for 2009 crop input
costs, click here: www.agriculture.purdue.edu/aganswers.
Source: Purdue University Extension
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Cash Flow
Crunch
The need to borrow money is the reality of doing
business in today's new era of farming, says Chris Hurt, Purdue
University Extension economist.
“The risks involved in managing this year's crops are the greatest
ever,” he says. “Farmers now have to deal with the highest input
cost per acre ever and the most total dollars invested in a crop.”
As a result, many farmers could find themselves in a cash flow crunch as
they try to lock in prices for their 2009 crop inputs, especially prior
to the 2008 harvest. “This will be a year when almost everything else
will be at an all-time high – there's no relief to be seen
anywhere,” says Steve Becraft, Cargill crop inputs manager,
Minnetonka, MN. “An average-scale farmer could need $1 million in
financing next year. So, access to capital will be important to a lot of
growers to maintain an operating budget and cash flow.”
But, adequate cash flow isn't an issue for Seth Ivey, Oxford, NE, thanks
to a Cargill financing package called Full Season Financing. “This
program helps me lock in my projected fertilizer and crop inputs at a
lower cost (by buying early), and I pay a lower interest rate than I
could get from a bank,” he explains. “I also don't have to pay
anything until November, when I have more cash coming in again.”
To continue reading this article about ways to avoid a cash-flow crunch
this fall, click here: cornandsoybeandigest.com.
By John Pocock
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Online Program Allows Producers to Learn Ag
Management Skills At Home
When Minnesota farmer Bruce Wichmann signed up for a
four-month Kansas State University program to hone his production and
business skills, he wasn´t sure what to expect from the online course.
What he got, says Wichmann, was an array of resources, personal
interaction with internationally known agricultural economists and the
opportunity to discuss issues affecting his operation with others facing
similar challenges.
Wichmann, who is the owner and operator of Greywolf Farms in Fairfax,
MN, was part of K-State´s 2007-2008 Management, Analysis and Strategic
Thinking Program. The MAST program is open to agricultural producers
throughout the U.S. who want to sharpen their management skills and plan
for the future.
K-State is now enrolling participants for the next MAST class. The
Web-based program, which begins Nov. 11-12, 2008, is open to all
agricultural producers, according to Alicia Goheen, MAST program
coordinator.
While the program kicks off with a session on K-State´s Manhattan, KS,
campus, the majority of the learning is done at home through modules
accessed on the Internet, Goheen says. Topics covered during the program
include: Land Ownership and Leasing; Machinery Ownership and Leasing;
Financial Analysis; Human Resources; Tax Management and Policy; Risk
Management; and Marketing.
More information and registration materials can be found on K-State´s
MAST Web site: www.agmanager.info/MAST or by
contacting Goheen at 785-532-4434 or agoheen@agecon.ksu.edu.
Source: K-State Research & Extension
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Leasing
Logistics
If farmland leases set on automatic pilot ever made
sense in calmer economic times, they no longer do … not with spikes in
commodity prices, higher input costs and farmland values now in play.
Landlord and tenant should revisit their lease arrangements every year
to ensure they share revenues equitably, in proportion to their
respective contributions to the enterprise. Either party's share or
contribution can be quickly skewed by today's volatile changes in costs
and commodity prices, says Bruce Johnson, ag economist at the University
of Nebraska-Lincoln.
“Keep it (lease) current. Adjust it yearly,” he advises. Don't lock
in long-term lease terms. Otherwise, he adds, “Somebody is going to
shoot himself in the foot.”
It's historically not a comfortable conversation, says Farmers National
Company Professional Farm Manager Pat Hengen, Honey Creek, IA. But it's
a conversation that needs to take place regularly, he adds.
Not only are annual negotiations advisable, says Hengen, but pushing up
the schedule for negotiations also deserves consideration. It allows an
earlier commitment to buying inputs such as seed and fertilizer in order
to capture early purchase and volume discounts. That can involve a lot
of dollars on the table, he says.
Flexible lease agreements can help equitably share revenue between
landlord and tenant. Provisions in those leases can account for quick
shifts in contributions to the enterprise by either party, owing to
sharp increases in farmland values and rental rates, and dramatic jumps
in seed, fuel and fertilizer costs.
To continue reading more on tips to establish a fair and equitable lease
agreement for your situation, click here: cornandsoybeandigest.com/ag-issues.
By Dave Howe
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Nine Ways To
Harvest Smarter
A job worth doing is worth doing right – and when it
comes to harvesting crops it couldn't be truer.
Before taking to the field this fall, consider these nine tips from crop
consultants, Extension specialists and professional harvesters to make
your harvest more efficient and less stressful. They are: assess field
health, calibrate yield monitors, watch moisture levels, evaluate field
loss often, optimize machinery with adjustments, capitalize on teamwork,
throttle back when possible, be consist and take a deep breath and
relax.
To find out the details behind these recommendations, click here: cornandsoybeandigest.com/corn.
By Shelby Haag
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Corn Exports Expected To
Decline
Early USDA forecasts for the 2008-2009 corn and
soybean marketing year project substantial declines in U.S. exports from
the record levels reached in the 2007-2008 marketing year, says Darrel
Good, University of Illinois marketing specialist.
“The sharpest decline is projected for corn,” says Good. “With
U.S. corn and soybean stocks expected to remain tight this year, the
pace of exports could have important price implications as the year
progresses.”
The USDA currently projects U.S. corn exports for the marketing year
that just ended on Aug. 31, 2008, at 2.425 billion bushels. U.S. corn
export inspections as of Aug. 31 totaled 2.337 billion bushels, and
exports reported in the weekly U.S. Export Sales report through Aug. 28
totaled 2.349 billion bushels, Good says.
Census Bureau estimates are only available through June 2008. At that
juncture, cumulative Census Bureau estimates exceeded inspections by 81
million bushels and estimates in the U.S. Export Sales report by 55
million bushels. If that margin persisted through August, exports will
be near the USDA projection. Exports of 2.425 billion bushels would be
record large, he says.
“For the 2008-2009 marketing year, the USDA projects U.S. corn exports
at 2 billion bushels, or nearly 18% below exports of the year just
ended,” he says.
According to Good, a number of factors point to prospects of weaker
demand for U.S. corn. To find out more, click here: cornandsoybeandigest.com/corn.
Source: University of Illinois
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Consider
Enrollment In New Federal Disaster Program
The Supplemental Revenue Assistance Payments (SURE)
program is the new Federal Disaster Program that is part of the new farm
bill, and will be available to all eligible producers in any county that
was declared a disaster county in 2008 by the U.S. Secretary of
Agriculture, including contiguous counties. SURE covers all crops –
whether insurable by federal crop insurance or the NAP program – and
covers both production losses and crop quality losses. The
qualifications for SURE and payment calculations are very similar to
previous ad hoc disaster programs.
If a producer is in a county that has already been declared a disaster
county for 2008 by the secretary of agriculture, and knows there will be
significant corn and soybean yield reductions, or other crop losses, it
will likely be worth the effort to be eligible for the program for the
2008 crop year. Producers in counties not declared a disaster could also
be eligible for SURE program payments if they have more than a 50% total
revenue loss on all farm units for the 2008 crop year. If your only crop
acres are corn and soybeans, and you purchased crop insurance on all
acres for 2008, you are already eligible for the SURE program.
To continue reading this article about the SURE program, click here: cornandsoybeandigest.com.
By Kent Thiesse, MinnStar Bank
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The Grain
Price Guessing Game Continues
There are so many factors influencing commodity prices
this year that it is difficult just to keep track of them.
The connection to oil price is still strong. Corn, soybeans, and wheat
staged rallies when crude oil prices rose in anticipation of possible
hurricane damage to U.S. Gulf oil production and refinery facilities.
Oil prices fell when the damage from Hurricane Gustav was much less
severe than expected, the summer driving season ended, a truce was
arranged between Russia and Georgia, a large hedge fund collapsed after
losing on oil trades and the dollar rose more against other currencies.
Commodity prices fell along with oil as non-commercial traders exited
long positions. Perhaps we are getting back to grain market
fundamentals. But their influences on prices could be even more
difficult to interpret than oil or geopolitics.
To continue reading this article about the latest outlook on grain
prices, click here: www.agmanager.info/marketing.
By Mike Woolverton, Kansas State University
Extension grain economist
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Ethanol
Study Reveals Fuel Savings For South Dakotans
If you want to save money at the pump the solution is
pretty simple: E-10. South Dakota drivers using a 10% ethanol blend
(E-10) saved 11.1¢/gal. at the retail pump over a 12-month period
ending in March 2008. That’s the result of a study by a national firm
published recently by the South Dakota Corn Utilization Council (SDCUC).
The study, Impact of Ethanol on Retail Gasoline Prices in South Dakota,
done by LECG, was a South Dakota-specific analysis of the impact of
ethanol on retail gasoline prices.
What if every South Dakota driver had fueled up with the E-10 blend?
South Dakota drivers used 429 million gallons of gasoline from March
2007 to March 2008 (an average of 35 million gallons per month). If all
of this gasoline had been blended with ethanol at a 10% level, South
Dakotans would have saved $47.6 million. This amounts to $164.10 for
each of South Dakota’s 290,245 households.
To continue reading this article on fuel savings for South Dakotans
using E-10 blends, click here: www.sdcorn.org/ethanol/news/index.cfm?ID=186.
To view the LECG study in a PDF file, click here: www.sdcorn.org/resource.
Source: South Dakota Corn Utilization
Council
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A Note From
The Corn E-Digest Editor: As Harvest Starts, Think
Safety!
Harvest is still a few weeks away for most corn
growers, but it’s not too early to think about farm safety. Whenever
people rely on large machinery for work, they and others become
vulnerable to tragic accidents.
If you, a friend or a family member has ever had a farm accident or come
close to having one, I’d like to hear from you. Sharing your
experience with others could help us all stay safer this harvest.
When writing, please let me know your name, where you farm, what your
experience was and whether or not I have permission to use your comment
in a future Corn E-Digest newsletter. You can contact me (John
Pocock) at: john.pocock@penton.com.
As always, you’re welcome to write to me if you have a comment on any
topic related to corn production or if you have concerns or questions
about this issue. Until then, here’s a Web link to click on for more
information on farm safety: ehs.okstate.edu/LINKS/farm.htm.
I look forward to hearing from you. Stay safe, thanks for your
readership – and farm on!
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