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Fertilizer
Price Increases: Less For Corn Than For Soybeans?
Fertilizer costs are still trending up, but not as
much for nitrogen (N) as for phosphorous (P) and potassium (K),
according to several industry experts.
“If I look at our budgets for what we had last year compared to what
we are projecting for 2009, there will be about a 32% increase for
ammonia (46¢ vs. 61¢/lb.), a 79% increase for phosphate (62¢ vs.
$1.11/lb.) and an 83% increase for potash (41¢ vs. 75¢/lb.),” says
Bruce Erickson, a Purdue University agricultural economist. “So,
we’re seeing bigger potential increases for P and K than for N. Last
year, relatively speaking, N went up more than P and K. Nitrogen is
still going up in price, but it appears to be leveling off more in cost
than P and K.”
With the price for oil dropping below $100/barrel again, and the price
for N leveling off, an increase in corn acres may appeal more to farmers
in 2009 than planting more soybean acres, says Erickson. “It’s still
going to cost more to raise corn than soybeans, but the cost to raise
soybeans is increasing more than the cost to raise corn,” he points
out.
For the 2009 crop, potash prices could exceed $900/ton, anhydrous
ammonia more than $1,000/ton and diammonium phosphate (DAP) around
$1,100/ton or more, notes Erickson. In Purdue’s preliminary budgets,
these numbers translate to fertilizer costs of $200/acre for corn and
more than $100 for soybeans.
“Preliminary,” is the key word to Purdue’s cost projections,
emphasizes Erickson. “The bottom line is that these prices are in a
constant state of change,” he says. “Nobody knows for sure exactly
what they’ll be in the future.”
In tough economic environments, however, the better managers will
profit more than those who don’t pay as much attention to nutrient
management, says Sebastian Braum, West Coast agronomist, Yara North
America. Some nutrient-management practices Braum recommends corn
growers to consider for 2009 include:
- banding P and K applications
- relying less on fall-applied or preplant applications
- fertilizing through pivot irrigation systems, where possible.
While more precise N, P and K applications should help to reduce cost,
Braum cautions against cutting back on fertilizer applications simply to
save expenses, especially for corn production. “When it comes to
fertilizer use, corn is king,” says Braum. “The corn crop will
suffer more and faster by withholding P and K than the soybean crop
would.”
Anhydrous ammonia will still be the cheapest form of N for most corn
growers, notes Braum. However, the danger from relying on anhydrous for
fall application in the Midwest is N loss in the spring from flooding
and saturated soils, he adds.
“My recommendation to corn growers in the Midwest is to pursue several
N-application strategies for different fields,” says Braum. “Where
fields are well drained and have less risk of flooding, then applying
anhydrous ammonia in the fall may make sense. On low-lying fields, where
the risk is greater, you might consider applying only a portion of your
N needs in the fall and supplementing with more N in the spring.”
The good news is that U.S. farmers won’t likely see any big N
fertilizer price increases for the 2009 crop, says Braum. The bad news
is that prices will probably stay about the same, or go up slightly, he
adds.
“I think we’ve reached a plateau for now,” says Braum. “I
don’t see dramatic price movements like we had last year. The forecast
is for urea (46-0-0) to cost between $730 and $850/short ton, plus the
freight on board costs. I also don’t expect phosphate (18-46-0) prices
to continue to escalate much either.”
Potash (0-0-60) prices will be a little harder to predict, however, says
Braum. Growmark’s plant food market manager, Joe Dillier, concurs.
“Potash inventories have been built up in recent months, so we should
have a good initial supply of potash this fall,” says Dillier.
“However, there is currently a potash strike at three mining locations
in Canada, and if that strike continues for a long time, potash prices
might increase dramatically for the spring.”
Inadequate financing might add more uncertainty to the market, he
cautions. “Depending on how tight the current credit crunch is,
farmers will need to be prepared to pre-pay for fertilizer in December
in order to assure product is available for them in the spring,”
advises Dillier.
“It looks like we will have a lot of corn planted in 2009, so we are
going to move a lot of fertilizer volume this spring,” he adds.
“However, there is also a lot of uncertainty in the supply chain now
with 55% of our N needs in the U.S. being imported.”
Buying fertilizer in the fall won’t likely beat the market by much
compared to buying in the spring, with the possible exception of potash
-- if the mining strike in Canada continues, predicts Dillier. “On the
other hand, getting financing for fertilizer purchases may be more of a
problem next spring as opposed to getting financing now,” he points
out. “So, I’d encourage farmers to talk with their banker to get the
dollars lined up by the end of the calendar year to assure you’ll have
product in place for spring.”
For more information on fertilizer use and prices, click here: www.ers.usda.gov.
For more information about Growmark farm supplies, click here: www.growmark.com.
For more information about Yara North America, click here: www.yara.us/en/.
By John Pocock
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15 Tips To Optimize Your Nitrogen
Applications
Fertilizer mistakes have never been costlier. High
nitrogen (N) fertilizer prices and high corn values mean “there's more
money to be made and lost on N,” says Peter Scharf, University of
Missouri Extension soil scientist.
Nitrogen source, rate, timing and placement, tillage and weather all
influence how efficiently N is used. Because of the diversity of Midwest
soils and climate, there are no uniform N-use guidelines. But here are
some general tips for fine-tuning N management, gathered from fertility
experts across the Corn Belt.
The first five tips on the list are to: select the most profitable rate,
invest in soil sampling, use the cheapest source, apply in the spring
and wait to apply fall ammonia. To find out the details on these five
recommendations and review 10 other tips, click here: cornandsoybeandigest.com/inputs.
By Liz Morrison
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Diesel
Prices Drop, But Gas Prices Surge In Wake Of Hurricane
Ike
Propelled by temporary refinery outages resulting from
hurricanes Gustav and Ike, the U.S. average retail price for regular
gasoline increased for the first time in 10 weeks, shooting up 18.7¢ to
hit 383.5¢/gal. Despite the storm-related price surge, the price was
still 27.9¢ below the all-time high set on July 7.
Regional price changes were mixed, going up east of the Rocky Mountains
and dropping slightly in the West. The average price in the East Coast
jumped 20¢ to 380.9¢/gal. In the Midwest, the price soared 31¢ to
394.6¢/gal., the highest price among the five regions. The price in the
Gulf Coast shot up by 20.6¢ to 375.7¢/gal. In contrast, the price in
the Rocky Mountains fell for the eighth consecutive week, moving down
1.3¢ to 375.4¢/gal., now the lowest average price of any region. The
price on the West Coast dropped another 4.3¢, marking the 12th
consecutive drop in that region. At 377¢/gal., the West Coast price
fell below the national average price for the first time since Sept. 10,
2007. The price in California dropped 5.5¢ to 380.4¢/gal.
Meanwhile, the average U.S. retail diesel price continued its downward
slide, dropping another 3.6¢ to 402.3¢/gal., reaching its lowest point
since April 7. During the past nine weeks, diesel prices have fallen
74.1¢ from the all-time high set on July 14.
To continue reading this article about fuel price fluctuations, click
here: tonto.eia.doe.gov/oog/info/twip/twip.asp.
Source: Energy Information
Administration
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Avoid
Excessive Harvest Of Corn Residue To Maintain Soil
Productivity
In most fields, corn residue remaining after grain
harvest is incorporated into the soil with tillage or is left on the
soil surface. Currently, corn residue is being harvested by some
livestock producers, and there is interest in producing ethanol from
corn residue in the near future (Perlack et al., 2005). However, soil
productivity (synonymous with soil carbon) will be reduced if all corn
residue in a field is harvested regularly and there is not another
source of carbon being returned to the soil to replace the carbon
removed with the residue.
Read more from Coulter at: www.extension.umn.edu/cropenews.
Read a related article from the University of Nebraska-Lincoln at: cropwatch.unl.edu.
By Jeff Coulter, University of Minnesota,
Extension corn agronomist
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Corn
Production Forecasts Cut
Even with the USDA's recent cut in 2008 corn and
soybean production forecasts, price prospects are far from settled, says
Darrel Good, a University of Illinois Extension marketing specialist.
“Changes in U.S. and world production prospects, energy prices and
world economic conditions will continue to influence prices,” says
Good. “A further drop in U.S. corn and soybean production forecasts is
expected in October. It is also encouraging that prices are holding up
well in the face of poor economic news and declining crude oil
prices.”
Good's comments came as he reviewed the USDA's September forecasts of
the prospective size of the 2008 U.S. corn and soybean crops. As
anticipated, both were smaller than the August forecasts. Outside the
U.S., both wheat and soybean production prospects increased while
prospects for corn deteriorated slightly.
To continue to read this article about U.S. and world corn production
prospects, click here: cornandsoybeandigest.com/corn.
Source: University of Illinois
Extension
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What Is
Needed To Maximize The 2008 Corn Crop?
Iowa’s corn has experienced an unforgiving growing
season. With the last breaths of summer in the air many wonder what it
will take to maximize yields from this date forward.
According to the recent USDA report, Iowa’s corn is about two weeks
behind the five-year average. Eleven percent is ready for a frost, 71%
is in the dent stage. At beginning dent, the crop normally needs about
three weeks to mature. The bottom line: Regardless of location in Iowa,
the corn crop needs a normal or later than normal frost date to maximize
yields.
To continue reading this article on possible yield reductions from a
normal or earlier frost, click here: www.extension.iastate.edu/CropNews.
By Roger Elmore, Iowa State University Extension
agronomist
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Brisk Late Summer Temperatures Draw Concerns
For Early Freeze
Unusually cool weather through much of August and
early September in the central High Plains is sparking concern that
crops may not reach maturity before the first freeze.
“Most fields will probably reach maturity before the first freeze, but
dry-down could be a problem,” says Kansas State University Agronomist
Kraig Roozeboom, adding that the first freeze would be when temperatures
across a region drop to a growth-halting 28° F rather than when the
mercury dips to 32° F in scattered areas.
Development and maturation of most summer crops in Kansas are driven by
temperature, says Roozeboom, a cropping systems specialist with K-State
Research and Extension. Corn and sorghum are especially dependent on
temperature, while soybean and cotton flowering and maturation depend on
a combination of day length and temperature.
To continue reading this article about corn maturity, yields and the
threat of frost in Kansas, click here: www.oznet.ksu.edu/news.
Source: K-State Research & Extension
News
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Corn
Condition A Mixed Bag Following Wind Storm
After the wind storm from Hurricane Ike, Ohio farmers
are finding their corn in one of two states: either standing relatively
well or taking a beating, and it pretty much depends on the stage of
maturity as to how difficult the crop will be to harvest.
Wind damage appears most severe in drought-stressed corn that had died
prematurely, resulting in weak stalks, and late-planted corn that had
shallow, limited root systems.
“It's not uncommon to see considerable variability in stalk lodging
within cornfields, with those areas of fields where corn ponding
occurred in June followed by drought stress in July and August
exhibiting the worst damage,” says Peter Thomison, an Ohio State
University Extension agronomist. “It's also remarkable how well corn
is standing in many fields despite the high winds.”
Thomison, who also holds an appointment with the Ohio Agricultural
Research and Development Center, says that, while evidence of wind
damage is widespread, severe damage, which may result in significant
yield losses, seems more localized rather than statewide. To continue
reading about the wind storm’s on Ohio’s corn crop, click here: www.ag.ohio-state.edu.
Source: Ohio State University
Extension
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Energy Costs For Corn Drying And
Cooling
The purpose of this brief article is to provide enough
information so that readers can estimate costs for drying and cooling
corn. Grain needs to be dry to be stored through warm weather and it
takes some energy to remove moisture from grain, but there are things
that can be done to manage energy use.
More information about managing dryers and storage can be found on the
University of Minnesota Bioproducts and Biosystems Engineering Extension
postharvest Web page (www.bbe.umn.edu/Post-Harvest_Handling_of_Crops).
Read more of Wilcke’s article on estimating costs for drying and
cooling corn in Minnesota here: www.extension.umn.edu/cropenews.
To read a related article on how to reduce drying costs by filling bins
in layers, from the University of Nebraska-Lincoln Extension, click
here: cropwatch.unl.edu.
By Bill Wilcke, University of Minnesota
Extension engineer
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Don't Drown
In Your Stored Grain
Plant it. Harvest it. Store it. While it takes an
entire growing season to produce the millions of bushels of grain
harvested each year, it takes fewer than five seconds to become
helplessly trapped in flowing grain, and fewer than 30 seconds to be
fully engulfed. So says Kerri Ebert, Kansas State University Extension
assistant of agricultural safety.
Roughly 12 people suffocate in grain bins annually, according to OSHA.
All of the grain in storage is not worth the life of one farmer -- and
by following basic guidelines, grain-handling accidents are preventable.
Because stored grain can trap you in seconds, there's limited time to
call for help. Never work alone when moving grain, and stay out of bins,
grain wagons and trucks when unloading, Ebert says.
When emptying bins, a person standing on top can become sucked into the
grain when the unloading auger is turned on. “The auger typically
pulls down from the top center of the grain pile creating a
funnel-shaped indentation,” Ebert says. “As grain flows down, the
victim is pulled down too, even as the remaining grain flows down around
and on top of the victim, until the person becomes lodged in the floor
auger.”
To continue reading this article on how to increase safety when working
in and around grain bins, click here: cornandsoybeandigest.com.
By Shelby Haag
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Farm Groups Ask USDA To Lawfully Implement
New Crop Revenue Program
In a letter sent recently to the USDA, the National
Corn Growers Association (NCGA) and 10 other agriculture organizations
stressed the importance of following the letter of the law when it comes
to implementing the new Average Crop Revenue Election (ACRE) Program.
According to some reports, the USDA is considering basing the average
crop revenue on the average price of the 2006 and 2007 crop years, while
the law clearly states it should be for the two “most recent” crop
years. Because ACRE kicks in with the 2009 crop year, the average price
for 2007 and 2008 should be considered -- not 2006 and 2007. And the
difference is an important one.
“The underlying purpose of the ACRE program is to provide an optional
farm safety net that is more contemporaneous with actual market
conditions,” the associations state in their letter. “By moving the
ACRE guarantee price to 2006, the department will make market signals
more remote from actual planting decisions and significantly diminish
the program's effectiveness at a time of steep increases in production
costs.”
While some have said that final price information for the 2008 crop year
will not be available, the opposite is true.
“The fact is the official 2008 national season average price will be
available to determine the price guarantee shortly after Oct. 1, 2009;
one year prior to any payments being delivered to producers for the 2009
crop,” the letter states. “An estimated ACRE program price guarantee
for sign-up early next year, based on the 2007 season average price and
projections for the balance of the 2008 marketing year, will provide
potential participants sufficient information to assist their decision
making and program selection.”
In addition to NCGA, letter signatories include the American Farm Bureau
Federation, American Farmland Trust, American Soybean Association,
National Association of Wheat Growers, National Barley Growers
Association, National Farmers Union, National Sorghum Producers,
National Sunflower Association, U.S. Canola Association and USA Dry Pea
and Lentil Council.
Click here to read a PDF file copy of the letter sent to USDA: www.ncga.com/PDFs/ACRE9-4-08.pdf.
Source: National Corn Growers
Association
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Giant Grass
Offers Clues To Growing Corn In Cooler Climes
A giant perennial grass used as a biofuels source has
a much longer growing season than corn, and researchers think they’ve
found the secret of its success. Their findings offer a promising avenue
for developing cold-tolerant corn, an advance that would significantly
boost per-acre yields.
The new study, from researchers at University of Illinois, appears this
month in Plant Physiology Preview.
Miscanthus x giganteus is one of the most productive grasses known. It
is able to capture the sun’s energy even as cool temperatures shut
down photosynthesis in other plants. In Illinois, green Miscanthus
leaves emerge up to six weeks before corn can be planted. Miscanthus
thrives into October, while corn leaves wither in late August.
Read more of this article about Miscanthus at: www.news.uiuc.edu/news.
Source: University of Illinois at
Urbana-Champaign
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A Note From
The Corn E-Digest Editor: Your Biggest Worry For
2008/2009?
Most of us who work in agriculture are accustomed to
managing risk (worries) on a daily basis. On the other hand, it’s hard
to remember a period as full of risk and anxiety as preparing for the
2008 harvest and 2009 planting season.
I wonder what your biggest worries are as you gear up for this harvest
season. It’s probably the same for many of you, but it may be very
unique for others.
If you have a worry, or a list of worries, on topics you’d like me to
write about, I’d like to hear from you. Sharing your concerns with
others could help us all stay more worry-free in 2009.
When writing, please let me know your name, where you farm, what your
worries are and whether or not I have permission to use your comment in
a future Corn E-Digest newsletter. You can contact me (John
Pocock) at: john.pocock@penton.com.
As always, you’re welcome to write to me if you have a comment on any
topic related to corn production or if you have concerns or questions
about this issue. Until then, here’s a Web link to click on for more
information on risk management from Ray Massey, University of Missouri
Extension agricultural economist: agebb.missouri.edu/news/ext/showall.asp?story_num=4553&iln=50.
I look forward to hearing from you. Stay safe, thanks for your
readership -- and farm on!
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