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Expect Moist
Soils For Corn Planting
Corn growers in the eastern Dakotas, Iowa, Michigan,
Minnesota, Wisconsin and the northern portions of Illinois, Indiana and
Ohio should expect a warm, wet spring in 2009, says Drew Lerner, World
Weather, Inc., owner and meteorologist.
“It won’t be as bad as last spring, because the soil drying rates
between storms should be faster with the warmer temperatures,” says
Lerner. “On the other hand, I’d still expect to see frequent
planting delays across the northern half of the Corn Belt in 2009 due to
excess moisture. March will be wet, but April and May will probably be
the wettest periods for the region.”
The forecast for the lower part of the Midwest is significantly
different, says Lerner. “After a wet March, soils in Kansas, Missouri
and southern portions of Illinois, Indiana and Ohio will probably dry
down a little more than normal for April and May,” he predicts.
“Growers in these areas will likely have firmer soil at planting time
than their northern counterparts.”
Early planting should thus be easier for southern Corn Belt
farmers than northern Corn Belt farmers, which may help to increase
yields in southern areas, notes Lerner. On the other hand, conditions
during the key pollination and tasseling periods are likely to favor
better yields for corn growers in northern areas, he adds.
“The southern Corn Belt will likely have timely rainfall during
summer, but the temperatures will probably trend cooler than normal in
the northern Midwest and eastern Corn Belt during late summer compared
to the southern Midwest,” says Lerner. “Moisture stress may also be
a concern in southwestern Corn Belt states during summer, but it should
be far from a serious problem.”
The impact from a lingering La Niña weather system “should be history
by June,” he adds. “In a strong La Niña year that lasts through
late summer, there is a tendency for conditions to be very dry in the
northern parts of the Midwest after a wet spring,” explains Lerner.
“This year, La Niña should be gone before it might contribute any
significant dryness to the region.”
Up until recently, La Niña conditions have been causing dry weather
problems for corn and soybean growers in Argentina, notes Lerner. “In
Argentina, the area of drought stress is shrinking right now,” he
says. “In Brazil, dry weather issues have been gone since early
January, allowing crop conditions to improve.”
As a result, Brazil’s late soybean crop won’t likely suffer much
yield loss, says Lerner. “Early soybeans did lose production
potential, but not nearly as severely as corn,” he points out.
“However, in Argentina, soybean yields will probably trend below
average and corn production will likely be a real disaster.”
With a significant reduction ahead in the Brazil and Argentina corn
crops, U.S. corn growers could capitalize on an opportunity to increase
their global market share for exports in 2009.
To learn more about World Weather Inc., weather forecasts, click here:
www.worldweather.cc/. To learn
more about La Niña weather systems and their impact on regional
temperatures and rainfall patterns, click here: www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov.
By John Pocock
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Corn May Be More Profitable Than Soybeans In
2009
Expected lower fertilizer prices in 2009 may lead to
an increase in corn profitability relative to soybean profitability for
some farmers, says Gary Schnitkey, a University of Illinois Extension
farm financial management specialist.
“Difficulties within the financial sector became apparent last
fall,” says Schnitkey. “The financial meltdown, along with public
perceptions of economic problems, has led to concerns that a deep,
world-wide recession is occurring. As a result, prices of many
commodities have declined dramatically in the belief that demands for
those commodities are being reduced.
“Among those commodities seeing declines are wholesale fertilizer
prices,” he adds.
Schnitkey's report, “Fertilizer Prices Likely to Decline in 2009,”
can be found online at: www.farmdoc.uiuc.edu/manage/newsletters
on U of I Extension's farmdoc Web site.
“As of yet, prices farmers pay for fertilizers have not decreased as
much as declines in wholesale prices,” points out Schnitkey. “In
fact, retail prices have not declined much at all in many areas of
Illinois. Non-declining prices are attributed to large unsold fertilizer
inventories held by many retailers.
“While retailers will suffer financial losses, there are incentives
for farmers to delay purchasing fertilizers, waiting for fertilizer
prices to decline,” he says. “Waiting to purchase fertilizer poses
some risks to farmers.”
Among these, he said, is the possibility supplies become limited if
suppliers curtail production. Geopolitical events may also impact
prices.
“The point is not that these or other events will occur, but that
there remain risks for higher fertilizer prices,” he adds. “As
farmers make planting decisions, up-to-date fertilizer prices should be
used in calculating relative profitability.”
Source: University of Illinois
Extension
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CFTC Approves Limits On Agricultural Delivery
Instruments For Non-Commercial Purposes
The Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC)
announced recently that it has approved a request by the Chicago Board
of Trade (CBOT) to limit the number of delivery instruments an entity
can hold for non-commercial purposes. This limit applies to warehouse
receipts or shipping certificates for the Exchange’s corn, mini-sized
corn, wheat, mini-sized wheat, oat, rough rice, soybean, mini-sized
soybean, soybean oil and soybean meal contracts and limits the number of
certificates/receipts anyone can hold to an amount equal to the spot
month speculative position limit.
The amendments are intended to reduce the potential for the significant
accumulation of delivery instruments by participants employing
strategies not directly related to commercial activities and which might
negatively impact contract performance. The Exchange will provide for
exemptions for bona fide commercial purposes administered under existing
hedge exemption procedures. Financial arrangements in which the
certificates are held as collateral but under the effective control of a
third party will also be eligible for exemption.
The CBOT intends to implement the amendments on Feb. 17, 2009, such that
persons owning or controlling more than the specified limit of
certificates or receipts as of that date will have until May 31, 2009,
to come into full compliance with the limits on corn, wheat, oat, rough
rice, soybean, and soybean meal. For soybean oil, persons holding
certificates in excess of the new limits will have until Sept. 25, 2009,
to come into full compliance.
To learn more, click here: www.cftc.gov/newsroom.
Source: The Commodity Futures Trading
Commission
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2009 Net Farm Income Forecast 9% Above
10-Year Average
Net farm income is forecast to be $71.2 billion in
2009, down $18.1 billion (20%) from the preliminary estimate of $89.3
billion for 2008. Still, $71.2 billion would be 9% above the average of
$65 billion earned in the previous 10 years.
Net cash income, at $77.3 billion, is forecast down $16.1 billion (17%)
from 2008 but still 7.6% above its 10-year average of $71.8 billion. Net
cash income is projected to decline less than net farm income primarily
because it reflects the sale of $1.8 billion in carryover stocks from
2008. Net farm income reflects only the earnings from production that
occurred in the current year.
To read more USDA farm income forecasts, including those related to corn
and soybean production, click here: www.ers.usda.gov/Briefing/FarmIncome.
Source: USDA Economic Research Service
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Time To
Check And Make Decisions About 2008 Corn
Last fall, the Iowa corn crop was coming out of the
field very wet, with soft texture, low test weight and low protein
content. These were consequences of the cool, wet growing season; much
of Iowa corn never reached full maturity. Elevators and producers alike
filled bins with wetter-than-normal corn, up to 24% moisture in some
cases. There were also cases of emergency piles of 18-22% moisture corn
that did not get picked up until January.
Corn in bins that were aerated and monitored to stay below 30° F and
that had the center cores removed are generally in good condition, while
unaerated bins and piles have deteriorated already to 75-100% damaged
kernels.
To read about ways to protect your 2008 corn crop while it's still in
storage, click here: cornandsoybeandigest.com/corn/0210-corn-08-decisions/.
By Charles Hurburgh, Iowa State
University
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Corn Acreage And
Biofuels
The size of the biofuels market will be an important
factor in determining how many acres of corn and soybeans are needed
this year, says Darrel Good, a University of Illinois Extension
marketing specialist.
“This is particularly true for corn,” says Good. “The majority of
biofuels production continues to be corn-based ethanol production. That
will continue to be the case for the next few years.
Good's comments come after a review of the main factors that will
influence corn and soybean prices over the next several months.
Important among those factors will be the 2009 acreage decisions of U.S.
producers and the strength of the biofuels markets.
Expectations about planted acreage of corn and soybeans in the U.S. are
in a wide range and actual planting decisions may remain uncertain for
some time, he notes. “Uncertainty centers on at least three
factors,” says Good. “First, the prices of 2009 crop corn and
soybeans continue to fluctuate, giving mixed signals to producers about
the likely relative profitability of corn and soybeans in the 2009-10
marketing year.
“Second, there is considerable uncertainty about the relative cost of
producing corn and soybeans in 2009,” he says. “Fertilizer prices
were very high in the fall of the year, but have recently declined, at
least for some ingredients in some markets. The cost of producing corn
in 2009 could vary substantially among producers.”
Less competition for acreage is a third uncertainty that could impact
the amount of corn planted this spring, adds Good. “The sharp decline
in winter wheat seedings and expected decline in cotton acreage in 2009
will result in additional acreage for other spring-planted crops,” he
says. “The magnitude of that acreage is not known with certainty
because some acreage could return to non-row-crop production or be idled
due to expectations of tighter margins for row-crop production.
“In addition, the large decline in seedings of soft red winter wheat
may result in fewer acres doubled-cropped to soybeans,” adds Good.
To read more about the outlook for corn acreage in 2009 and beyond,
click here: www.aces.uiuc.edu/news/stories/news4666.html.
Source: University Of Illinois
Extension
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$55 Oil Needed For Corn Ethanol To
Compete
“With the current corn price of about $3.50/bu.,
corn ethanol cannot compete unless oil prices rise to at least
$55/barrel,” writes Richard Perrin, University of Nebraska-Lincoln, in
the Feb. 11, 2009 issue of Corn Husker Economics.
“Without the blenders’ credit, oil prices would have to be at least
$80/barrel for ethanol to be able to compete,” he point out.
“The federal biofuel mandate calls for 50% more corn ethanol by
2015,” adds Perrin. “If the mandate holds, price premiums for corn
ethanol will rise until the incentive for that quantity is achieved.
“Corn ethanol will be profitable,” he predicts. “But faltering
public support creates concern that the mandate may be changed and that
the blenders’ credit may expire. In that case, the only hope for a
profitable industry is that oil prices rise to $80/barrel or more, so
that the industry can afford to pay $3.50-4/bu. for corn.”
To read more about corn ethanol’s outlook for profitability, click on
the following PDF Web link: www.agecon.unl.edu/Cornhuskereconomics.
Source: University of Nebraska-Lincoln
Extension
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World's Largest Corn
Planter
Imagine you’re planting down the middle of your
local high school football field. With John Deere/Bauer Built’s newest
planter, the DB120, you’d only have 20 ft. from each outside row unit
to the sidelines – thanks to its 120-ft.-wide toolbar.
“As growers get bigger, they’re looking for more productivity from
their equipment to plant more acres per day,” says Rob Rippchen,
Deere’s division marketing manager for the new planter. “At 120 ft.,
the DB120 has 30% more productivity than our 36-row, DB90 planter and
will match up with our 12-row corn heads.”
Depending on field conditions, the DB120 should plant 90-100 acres/hour
at the recommended 5-5½ mph, according to Rippchen.
To learn more, click here: cornandsoybeandigest.com/equipment/0212-worlds-largest-planter/.
By John Russnogle
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Check Out New Corn Weed Control
Guide
Want a fast breakdown of which herbicides will control
or suppress your problem weeds? Then visit Corn & Soybean
Digest’s interactive 2009 Corn Weed Control Guide. It can
formulate your weed control program with a few clicks of your mouse.
Just visit www.cornweedcontrol.com. From
there, you’ll be able to click on your most troublesome weeds and
within seconds have a breakdown of preplant, pre-emerge and postemerge
herbicide offerings. Plus, there’s an easy-to-follow weed control
identification guide.
So don’t wait, check out www.cornweedcontrol.com now.
This year’s guide is sponsored by DuPont.
Source: Corn & Soybean Digest
|
Tillage Conference
Highlights
How to farm with fewer inputs, less energy and less
soil erosion was the focus of The 2009 Conservation Tillage Conference,
Morton, MN. Sponsored by the University of Minnesota Extension and Corn
& Soybean Digest, it featured a strong lineup of farmers providing
first-hand experience on their tillage practices, plus Extension
specialists and industry experts. Their focus was getting more mileage
from inputs and soil moisture, building soil structure and generally
farming smarter.
Conference PowerPoint presentations can be accessed at the Corn &
Soybean Digest Web site. Sessions included how to band fertilizers
without burning tender seedlings, best nitrogen practices, reduced
tillage pointers from seasoned strip-and no-tillers, seedling and root
physiology, tillage economics, opportunities in today's farm economy,
new precision ag technologies, planter tune-ups, soybean genetic
advances, double-cropping with wheat, integrated pest management
guidelines and others.
So, to get presentation details on this premier conference, click here:
cornandsoybeandigest.com/tillageconference/.
Source: Corn & Soybean Digest
|
Special
Interest Groups Use Fear To Attack Ethanol
New anti-ethanol commentary by environmental and food
manufacturing organizations are “stirring up fear” among consumers
at a time when all segments of the economy should be pulling together to
bring about recovery.
The Washington-based Environmental Working Group and the Grocery
Manufacturers Association seem to be intent on destroying the ethanol
industry at a time when the country needs to be reducing rather than
increasing its dependence on foreign oil, National Corn Growers
Association (NCGA) officials say.
“These groups are stirring up fear for the American public when
Americans are already struggling due to the faltering world economy, job
losses and high costs of food brought on by some food companies’
record profits and greed,” says NCGA President Bob Dickey, a corn
producer from Nebraska.
“The fact remains corn ethanol is here – and available today – to
strengthen the U.S. economy, create new U.S.-based jobs and reduce our
dependence on foreign oil,” he adds. “Wind and solar power are good
options for energy; however, these will take years to have the same
impact that ethanol is having now.”
To read more about ethanol’s environmental and economic benefits,
click here: deltafarmpress.com/biofuels/ethanol-production-0217/.
By Forrest Laws, Farm Press Editorial
Staff
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Take Part
In Corn & Soybean Digest Poll
Please cast your ballot in the latest Corn &
Soybean Digest (CSD) quick poll. The most recently posted
question is: What is your biggest concern as you enter the 2009
planting season?
Your can cast your vote on CSD's home page at: cornandsoybeandigest.com/.
(The poll question is just to the right of the “What’s New” top
section of the Web site.)
Source: The Corn And Soybean
Digest
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300-Bu.
Corn?
What does it take to produce 300-bu. corn? Cooperative
Extension corn specialists throughout the Midwest will offer insight
into the production and genetics of creating high corn yields during the
Ohio State University (OSU) Conservation Tillage and Technology
Conference.
The conference will be held Feb. 26-27 at the McIntosh Center of Ohio
Northern University in Ada, OH. Part of the conference agenda includes a
new five-hour in-depth session on corn production. “Corn University”
will feature topics on achieving high corn yields, transgenics,
continuous corn with no-till and strip-till and managing risk.
“We'll be looking at some of the tools, cultural practices, and
advances in genetics farmers have available to them for clues as to
where we will be headed with corn production and where we can achieve
high corn yields,” says Peter Thomison, an OSU Extension agronomist
and one of the program presenters.
Thomison will be joined by Emerson Nafzinger, with the University of
Illinois; Greg Roth, with Penn State University; and Chad Lee, with the
University of Kentucky. To learn more about the conference, click here:
www.ag.ohio-state.edu/~news/story.php?id=5013.
Source: Ohio State University
Extension
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Let's Talk
Ag
Need seeding-rate advice? Want to network with other
farmers? Wondering which precision tool is more accurate? Join Let’s
Talk Ag — a new, online forum dedicated to farmers and hosted in part
by Corn & Soybean Digest. You can post questions, answer
questions, network and get advice. Joining is simple and free, and only
takes a few minutes.
Go to www.letstalkag.com to get
started and join a growing network of farmers who
want to answer your questions and get answers from you. It's a great way
to learn new methods, get fresh advice and make new friends (just like
on Facebook and MySpace).
Source: Corn & Soybean Digest
|
National Farm
Machinery Show Videos Ready To View
The agricultural industry may be the only industry not
caught in the recession. Crowds swelled and exhibitors chuckled at the
enormous turnout at the National Farm Machinery Show held recently in
Louisville, KY.
The recession was not in attendance. Instead, exhibitors managed to
introduce a number of new pieces of equipment to farmers. And you can
take at look at some of it in new video produced right from the show
floor. To check out the latest equipment – from planters and tractors
to precision technology and grain handling equipment, click here: farmindustrynews.com/tv/nfms09/.
Source: Farm Industry News
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AFBF Pleased With Stimulus Provisions For
Agriculture
The American Farm Bureau Federation is pleased with
the broadband, renewable energy and tax provisions contained in the
stimulus package that was recently signed by President Barack Obama.
These provisions will help the agriculture industry and all Americans
through the economic recovery period.
The $7.2 billion allocated for broadband will help rural communities
participate in our recovering economy, while modernizing rural education
and healthcare. It will create great economic opportunities for rural
Americans and allow farmers and ranchers to take advantage of technology
to help them remain profitable and competitive.
The tax incentives for renewable energy, particularly for new renewable
fuels, will help build an industry that will provide farmers and
ranchers with income and the rural economy with jobs, while contributing
to a cleaner environment and reducing dependence on imported oil.
Farmers and ranchers will also greatly benefit from the extension of
both the small business expensing levels and bonus depreciation tax,
which will help them improve cash flow while aiding the economy by
encouraging purchases of equipment.
By Bob Stallman, American Farm Bureau Federation
president
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A Note From
The Corn E-Digest Editor: More Jobs Needed For Rural
America?
In the last month’s Corn E-Digest newsletter,
I asked readers to comment about whether or not the U.S. ethanol
industry deserved a bailout, just like the nation’s auto and financial
sectors. One reader, Jerry Nienhiser, from Blackburn, MO, sent in this
response:
“I am a very small-acreage (350 acres) corn and soybean producer. An
ethanol plant (Mid-Missouri Energy) is 8 miles from my farm (near where
US Highway 65 crosses the Missouri River). It is a good market for me.
It also provides a big financial boost for our community, where good
jobs are few. Some of my neighbors and friends work there.
I personally do not think any bailout is good in the long run. The
current financial meltdown could have been avoided if we had not allowed
greed to replace old fashioned common sense. However, since we started
down this path, we need to continue – including helping the ethanol
industry – as it will provide much needed jobs in this and other rural
areas.”
Whether you agree or disagree with this comment about the need for
ethanol and more jobs for rural Americans, I’d like to hear from you.
When writing, please let me know your name, where you farm or work, what
your comment is and whether or not I have permission to use your comment
in a future Corn E-Digest newsletter. You can contact me (John
Pocock) at: john.pocock@penton.com.
As always, you’re welcome to write to me if you have a comment on any
topic related to corn production or if you have concerns or questions
about this issue. I look forward to hearing from you. Stay safe, stay
profitable, thanks for your readership – and farm on!
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