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 December 6, 2011

 eWheat: eastern

 

In This Issue

World Market Access Is Vital

By Larry Stalcup, eWheat editor

For decades American growers have depended heavily on wheat exports. The U.S. is the world’s largest wheat exporter and U.S. Wheat Associates (USW) works to maintain wheat sales to some 100 countries. Exports are why the recent free trade agreements (FTAs) were welcomed with open arms.

USW is promoting an FTA that will generate even more sales across the Pacific Rim and other Asian regions. Its board of directors recently passed a resolution supporting the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) FTA and is encouraging other countries to join the discussion.

Full Article

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Grain Council Report Confirms More Competitive Global Wheat Market

By Casey Chumrau, USW Market Analyst

The 2011-2012 world wheat supply is 3% greater than last year thanks to excellent production and abundant carryover stocks, according to the International Grains Council (IGC). In its monthly report released Nov. 24, IGC’s total global stocks estimate is 879 million metric tons (mmt), 28 mmt more than last year and equal to the current USDA estimate.

IGC estimates world production will be the second largest on record at 683 million metric tons despite a downward revision of 1 mmt from last month. Most of the 20-mmt increase, compared to 2010-2011 production, comes from the Black Sea region, which experienced a severe drought in 2010-2011. Production estimates for that region include an additional 16.5 mmt for Russia, pushing its production to 58 mmt, a 28% increase to 21.5 mmt for Ukraine. Kazakhstan had its largest crop in 20 years at 18 mmt – 80% greater than last year.

Full Article

Pacific Northwest Ports' Container Exports Rise

Containerized imports generally lagged but exports continued to grow in October at the ports of Oakland, Portland, Tacoma and Seattle, the Journal of Commerce reports.

 Seattle and Tacoma recorded their best monthly export totals of the year. Exports in Seattle were up 12% in October over September and exports were up 4% over October 2010.



Portland experienced the strongest growth in exports among the northern ports on the West Coast. Exports increased 46% compared to September and exports were up 52% over October 2010. 

Exports in Tacoma increased 7% in October compared to October 2010, but were down 17% compared to September 2011. Exports in Seattle were up 8% over September and were 0.6% higher than in October 2010

In a situation that could snarl grain exports in the West, the Occupy Movement is calling for a shutdown of all West Coast ports on Dec. 12. So far the powerful International Longshore and Warehouse Union isn’t supporting the shutdown, the Journal of Commercereports.



The movement's declaration comes after thousands of Occupy Oakland protestors halted nighttime operations at the Port of Oakland on Nov. 2. The longshore union voiced support for the Oakland protest but has apparently switched its stance, alleging that apparent outside forces were joining the groups with their own agendas, the Journal of Comerce says.

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High Cash Rents Can Spell Trouble If Crop Prices Continue To Fade

The unsettled global economy has pushed grain prices down with other commodities, giving a good indication of what farmers might expect in farm income should they have substantial acreage with high cash rents. It presents a “stress test” of sorts for a farming operation. Many operators engaged in cash rent negotiations with land owners may want to use the concept to determine their comfort level with various levels of cash rent, should corn and soybean prices drop below their current USDA projected average of $6.70 and $12.60, respectively.

Full Article

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Thousands of acres of wheat and barley are destroyed by the weather each year. Crop Protection Plus® is a product cost replacement credit program from DuPont for wheat and barley growers in qualifying states who apply a qualifying DuPont wheat herbicide. When the weather doesn’t cooperate, we will. For more information visit cropprotectionplus.dupont.com.

MF Global Bankruptcy Hits Farmers, Ranchers

By David Bennett

Fallout over the late-October bankruptcy of MF Global Holdings Ltd. – the eighth largest in U.S. history – has spawned FBI and Justice Department investigations and left many wondering how, in the wake of supposed Wall Street reforms, government oversight of another financial institution was so lax.

Full Article

Lights, Camera, Action!

Farmers and harvesters are primetime stars as PBS and the History Channel bring viewers closer to the turn row. America’s Heartland is nearing its 150th episode on PBS. And Harvest is a new program on the History Channel that follows in the combine tracks of three custom harvest families. They include two custom-harvest families that have been part of the DuPont-sponsored All Aboard Wheat Harvest tour.

PBS stations around the country and RFD-TV broadcast the America’s Heartland show on various days. Harvest premiered in early November. Check your local TV listings for when the show airs in your town or city.

Postharvest Chemical Use Survey Stopped

USDA’s National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS) has suspended the fall 2011 corn crop data collection for the Postharvest Chemical Use Survey Program due to budget constraints. The survey provided data about postharvest pesticide use and pest management practices for a range of crops on a rotating annual basis. NASS leadership conducted a deliberate review of all programs against mission- and user-based criteria. Because of the timing of the agency’s survey work during the coming year, this decision is necessary now, NASS says.

Disease Resistance Is Wheat Checkoff Research Priority

Through the 1.5¢/bu. Kansas wheat checkoff, nearly $1.3 million in wheat research is conducted each year, including much through the Kansas State University plant pathology department. In the field of plant pathology, researchers develop disease resistance, identify disease-resistant lines of wheat and provide disease-resistance ratings of new and existing varieties. Plant Pathologist Bill Bockus has a three-year project:"Disease Phenotyping: Determining the Reaction of Wheat Lines to Important Diseases."

The Kansas Wheat Commission contributes $30,000 annually to Bockus' research, which includes operating the Kansas Intrastate Nursery. These are plots located throughout Kansas where Bockus inoculates advanced breeding lines with a host of common plant diseases. He then checks (or phenotypes) these lines to see whether they possess disease resistance. Everest, K-State's newest release, emerged from the nursery showing improved resistance to fusarium head blight and Barley Yellow Dwarf (BYD).

Full Article

Take The Corn & Soybean Digest Poll

The Corn & Soybean Digest poll looks at various aspects of wheat and other crop production. Please take a minute to take part. The current poll question is: Did you apply fertilizer to cropland this fall? *Sure did! On every acre possible. *Yes, but only on certain acres where needed. *Nope. We fertilize in the spring. Click below to take the poll.

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Thanks For Viewing eWheat

Merry Christmas and Happy Holidays to your family and friends and thanks for taking the time to view eWheat. Look for another issue of eWheat in your email box on in early 2012. If you have any questions, comments or suggestions on the content of this newsletter, please e-mail your editor Larry Stalcup at beef2lar@suddenlink.net. Also, thanks to our exclusive sponsor, DuPont, for its support of this newsletter.

          
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Thousands of acres of wheat and barley are destroyed by the weather each year. Crop Protection Plus® is a product cost replacement program from DuPont for wheat and barley growers in qualifying states who apply a qualifying DuPont wheat herbicide. When the weather doesn’t cooperate, we will. For more information visit cropprotectionplus.dupont.com.
Market Outlook
Below Average Protein Supports Some Wheat Prices
By Kim Anderson, Oklahoma State University crop marketing specialist

With a record 25.1 billion bushel world wheat crop, the supply of milling quality wheat is expected to be relatively tight. Spring wheat production was below average in the U.S. (398 million bushels vs. 496 million-bushel average). Canada’s total wheat production is projected to be near the 903-million-bushel average. However, Canadian wheat protein is expected to be below average.

Hard red winter (HRW) wheat production in the U.S. was below average at 780 million bushels compared to a five-year average of 942 million bushels. Projections indicate that neither Australia’s record wheat production nor Argentina’s average wheat production will offset the lower U.S HRW wheat crop.

Reports indicate that excess rain in Australia is delaying harvest in some areas and is resulting in a higher percentage of feed wheat. Relatively high yields are also expected to result in below average protein levels.

The caveat is that with record wheat production, a lower percentage of milling quality wheat does not necessarily imply that the total bushels of milling quality wheat will be significantly lower than with an average crop. It does imply that Australia will have below average protein and an above average amount of feed wheat.

The limited amount of protein is reflected in the spread between the Minneapolis Grain Exchange (MGEX) for spring wheat, the Kansas City Board of Trade (KCBT) for HRW wheat, and the Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) for soft red winter wheat contract prices. The spread between the MGEX March wheat contract and the CBOT March wheat contract price is about $2.08 premium MGEX March.

The spread between the MGEX March wheat contract price and KCBT March wheat contract price is about $1.58. The spread between MGEX contracts and CBOT wheat contracts is about $2.26. Since August, the price spread between MGEX spring wheat has increased relative to both the KCBT and CBOT winter wheat contract prices.

As wheat harvests end in the Southern Hemisphere, both the supply of wheat and the protein levels will be fixed for the 2011-2012 wheat marketing year. The relatively tight protein supply could result in good protein premiums for the 2012 HRW winter wheat crop.


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