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What's Happening
in MarketMaxx?
May 14, 2008
Don’t wait to get signed up for MarketMaxx!
The deadline is nearing for you to get signed up for MarketMaxx 2008.
Midnight May 31 is when all players for this year must be signed up
at www.MarketMaxx.net. If
you’re an eligible farmer, you could win a year’s free use of a new
combine or tractor.
You have nothing to lose -- but a lot to gain. As a MarketMaxx
player, you'll have a simulated 100,000 bu. of corn and 50,000 bu.
of soybeans to trade using Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) futures,
options or cash-forward contracts. The eligible farmer with the highest
average selling price of his or her corn or soybeans when the contest
ends Oct. 31, 2008, will take home a grand prize.
There is no financial obligation to you. And by playing
MarketMaxx, you can learn the ins and outs of how various futures
and options trades react to today’s volatile corn and soybean market.
With market swings sometimes in the 40-cent to 50-cent range almost
daily, there is a lot of money changing hands on all sides of the table.
As a producer, you want more of that money on your side.
MarketMaxx Prizes
Nearly 8,200 players are signed up for MarketMaxx. Grand prize for
the corn contest is a Gleaner R5 or A5 series combine (up to 100 combine
separator hours). The soybean winner will receive a year's use (not to
exceed 250 hours) of the choice of any PowerMaxx CVT-equipped AGCO RT or
DT series tractor.
Second prize for each contest is a complete computer system plus
software from Syngenta Crop Protection. Third prize in the corn contest
is a complete Leica mojoRTK auto-steer system from Leica Geosystems.
Third prize in the soybean contest and fourth prize in the corn contest
is a DICKEY-john mini GAC Plus handheld moisture tester.
By signing up, you’ll continue receiving this MarketMaxx
e-newsletter. The newsletter keeps you updated on the game through a
complete leaderboard in the corn and soybean contests. The newsletter
features the latest market commentary from leading university and
private grain marketing specialists -- information you can use to
enhance your corn and soybean marketing program. It will arrive in
your e-mail box every other week throughout the year -- but only if
you’re signed up by May 31.
The MarketMaxx forum, located on the www.MarketMaxx.net site, is
intended for general questions about the game and discussion regarding
trading tips, strategies and ideas. You can share some of your thoughts
about the markets. If you have a question about a specific trade or item
in your account, you can e-mail MarketMaxx at helpmarketmaxx@cashgrainbids.com.
So go to www.marketmaxx.net/
and get started playing MarketMaxx. You have nothing to lose and a
lot to gain.
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MarketMaxx Leaderboard
(May 9, 2008)
Top Leaders – Corn Contest
Roy Sangmeister, Manhattan, IL, $7.89.97
Corey Brandau, Peotone, IL, $7.77.54
Arlan Shelly, Atmore, AL, $7.38.62
Ralph Sangmeister, Peotone, IL, $7.38.38
David Bitto, Elberta, AL, $7.35.62
Charles Bonner, Summerdale, AL, $7.29.62
Terry Hiatt, Atlanta, MO, $7.28.26
Chris Schnell, Sully, IA, $7.27.86
David Womack, Atmore, AL, $7.26.38
Top Leaders – Soybean Contest
Roy Sangmeister,Manhattan, IL, $18.68.97
Corey Brandau, Peotone, IL, $18.58.97
Ed Krelo, Elkville, IL, $16.94.2
Steve Mercer, Kearney, NE, $16.22.37
Jeremy Svitak, Howells, NE, $15.26.25
Andy Bensend, Dallas, WI, $1519.81
Rick Lemke, Mequon, WI, $14.91.01
Arlin DePatis, LaMoille, IL, $14.51.22
Holly Utterback, Robinson, IL, $14.50.83
Jim Spahr, Seward, NE, $14.33.3
Market
Commentary
First Look At 2008 Crops
By Melvin Brees, University of Missouri Extension Economist
USDA’s World Agriculture Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) last week
provided the first monthly supply/demand estimates for 2008 corn,
soybean and wheat crops. Corn supplies will be very tight, soybean
carryover will increase somewhat and increasing wheat supplies are
expected.
The only adjustment to old-crop (2007-2008) corn supply/demand estimates
was a 100-million-bushel-cut in corn used for ethanol. This produced a
100-million-bushel increase in old crop ending stocks to 1.383 billion
bushels. Price estimates for 2007-2008 were reduced 10 cents on the top
end and are now expected to range from $4.10 to $4.40/bu.
For 2008, USDA used the March intended plantings of 86 million acres,
which is down 7.6 million acres from last year. Using estimated
harvested acreage of 78.8 million acres and a projected yield of 153.9
bu./acre (1 bu. below trend yields due to late planting progress),
production is expected to be 12.125 billion bushels. Feed use in
2008-2009 is expected to decline as livestock producers adjust to high
feed costs and increased distillers grains become available.
Ethanol use of corn is expected to increase by 1 billion bushels to 4
billion bushels. Exports are projected to decline 400 million bushels in
the coming year as producers worldwide respond with increased feed grain
production. The net result is total expected 2008-2009 corn use of
12.760 billion bushels. Since use is expected to exceed production,
ending stocks will become very tight at only 763 million bushels.
Although U.S. production is expected to decline in 2008, foreign corn
production is projected to increase by more than 20 million metric tons
(mmt). However, tighter U.S. supplies are expected to draw down world
carryover from 109.69 mmt (2007-2008) to 99.03 mmt (2008-2009). New-crop
corn prices are forecast to range from $5 to $6.
The only change to 2007-2008 soybean supply/use was 15 million bushels
increased exports. This resulted in a decrease in estimated old-crop
carryover from 160 million bushels to 145 million bushels. Soybean
prices for 2007-2008 are expected to average $10/bu. USDA used the March
soybean planting intentions of 74.8 million bushels, which is an
increase of 11.2 million acres above last year’s soybean acreage.
Trend yields of 42.1 bu./acre on 73.8 million harvested acres are
forecast to produce a soybean crop of 3.105 billion bushels. Exports are
expected to be somewhat less in 2008-2009, but increases in domestic use
result in total expected use of 3.073 billion bushels. In spite of the
increased production, 2008-2009 ending stocks will only increase 40
million bushels from the old-crop carryover of 145 million bushels to
185 million. Soybean prices for 2008-2009 are forecast to range from
$10.50 to $12.
Wheat producers worldwide are responding to high wheat prices. This and
better growingconditions are expected to increase world wheat production
by 50 mmt in 2008-2009. Although use is expected to remain strong, the
increase in production is expected to allow world wheat ending stocks to
grow from 110.02 mmt to 123.99 mmt. U.S. winter wheat production is
projected to increase from last year’s 1.52 billion bushels to 1.78
billion bushels. All wheat production is forecast to be 2.39 billion
bushels.
Total U.S. wheat use in 2008-2009 is projected to be nearly 2.25 billion
bushels, resulting in an expected carryover of 483 million bushels. This
is up 244 million bushels from the 2007-2008 expected wheat stocks of
239 million bushels. Wheat prices for 2008-09 are forecast to range from
$6.60 to $8.10/bu.
Most of the supply/demand projections were within the ranges of
pre-report trade estimates. Planting delays have already caused USDA to
lower expected corn yields. Continued delays will add to concerns about
actual planted acres and further reductions in yield potential.
The projections were positive for soybean prices, even with the
increased acreage, since ending stocks are not expected to increase
much. Strong world demand is also expected to support wheat prices.
However, prices were mixed in early futures trading following the
reports. The projected prices provide a starting point to plan
additional new-crop sales. Target sales toward the upper end or when
prices are above the USDA forecast price ranges.
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Additional
Commentary
Uncertain Corn Prospects
Assuming that the majority of the corn crop gets planted before the
middle of May, prospects for a 2008 average U.S. yield at or above trend
will be maintained, says Darrel Good, University of Illinois Extension
marketing specialist. "The question is whether trend yield will be
sufficient," says Good. "An estimate of actual planted acres will not be
available until June 30. In addition, even with timely planting, yields
are still mostly dependent on summer weather conditions."
USDA’s March 31 planting intentions were well below expectations and
well below the magnitude of acreage needed to allow corn consumption to
continue at the current rate of 13.11 billion bushels per year. "It may
be that the size of the market for U.S. corn will not grow during the
2008-2009 marketing year even without further price increases," says
Good. "There is some evidence, for example, that hog producers are
reducing the size of the breeding herd, pointing to a decline in the
number of hogs to be fed in 2009.
"Exports of U.S. corn may decline modestly from the record level being
experienced this year if world wheat production rebounds and if the U.S.
dollar strengthens. The size of the Chinese corn crop and subsequent
trade policies, however, will also be important for U.S. corn export
demand."
Good notes that ethanol demand for corn is also a little more uncertain
as policymakers debate proposals to reduce the level of biofuel
production mandates and the magnitude of the blender's tax credit.
"Changing the level of mandates, however, would likely have very little
short-term impact on the demand for corn to produce ethanol if the
economics of production remains favorable," he says. "The level of the
tax credit has a more direct impact on the returns to ethanol
production. At current prices for corn and ethanol, however, corn-based
ethanol production would remain profitable even with a modestly lower
blender's tax credit."
Good points out that “even with a potential market for only 12.5
billion bushels, the U.S. crop would need to be near 12.2 billion
bushels, requiring a national average yield of about 154.4 bu./acre to
maintain year-ending stocks at 1 billion bushels.”
Good says there is some possibility that corn planted acreage will
exceed intentions reported in March and the market will monitor USDA's
weekly report of planting progress to evaluate both the likely magnitude
of planted acreage and average yield potential.
"Rapid planting would favor an increase in acreage and at least a trend
yield," he says. "Planting progress in April was generally very slow,
with only 10% of the crop planted as of April 27, compared to 20% last
year and the five-year average of 35%. Rapid planting during the first
two weeks of May would still support expectations for more planted
acreage and expectations for at least a trend yield in 2008."
Other News That Can
Impact Corn And Soybean Prices
Can Congress Override Farm Bill Veto?
Farm Press reports that Congressional farm bill negotiators and
major farm organizations have begun an intense effort to muster the 290
House votes needed to override a promised veto of the 2008 Food,
Conservation and Energy Act conference report.
Shortly after House and Senate Agriculture, Ways and Means and Finance
Committee leaders outlined the major features of the compromise
legislation at a news conference late last week, they and farm groups
began lobbying members of Congress to support it. Any lingering doubts
President Bush would veto the long-awaited 2008 Farm Bill were swept
away when Agriculture Secretary Ed Schafer issued a statement saying the
president intended to do just that.
“I am eager to get the farm bill on the House floor for a vote next
week and on the president’s desk,” says Rep. Mike Conaway, (R-TX),
noting the agriculture community had been waiting too long. “In the
event President Bush vetoes this legislation, I will vote to override
the veto.”
The Agriculture Committee chairmen and ranking members who negotiated
the 11th-hour farm bill compromise agreement seemed as much relieved as
they were pleased they had moved the package a step closer to becoming
law. “I am a happy man,” says Sen. Tom Harkin, (D-IA) chairman of
the Senate Agriculture Committee and of the farm bill conference
committee. “One of the members of the staff likened writing a farm
bill to passing a kidney stone. I’ve never had one, but I think I know
what he means.”
Harkin and Rep. Collin Peterson, (D-MN), chairman of the House
Agriculture Committee, referred frequently to the fact nearly
three-fourths of the spending in the 2008 farm bill will go for
nutrition programs. “This is a strong, bipartisan farm bill that
benefits every American from Cumming, IA, population 162, to New York
City, population 8 million,” Harkin said. “The bill provides a
strong safety net, so it’s good for farmers and producers. Consumers
will like it because it will increase farmers’ markets and ensure a
safe, dependable supply of high-quality food.”
Harkin says the compromise agreement also provides significant reforms
of farm support programs, including caps on the level of farm income and
the adjusted gross income of participants in farm programs, direct
attribution of payments to individuals and elimination of the
three-entity rule, a favorite target of environmental groups. But he and
others returned several times to the increased funding for nutrition
programs, including improving the diets of low-income Americans and
increasing the access of school children to fresh fruits and vegetables.
“At a time of economic downturn and rapidly rising prices for food
staples, millions of low-income Americans have joined the ranks of the
hungry and the food insecure,” says Harkin. “For that reason, all of
the new money we were able to secure for this new farm bill went into
the nutrition title, bringing the new investment in nutrition to $10.4
billion.”
Peterson implored the news media to do a better job of explaining the
farm bill to consumers who have been inundated with stories about “big
payments to wealthy farmers.”
“Some people think the entire $300 billion in this bill goes to
farmers,” he notes. “The truth is $36 billion to $40 billion is for
farmers over 10 years and the rest for nutrition programs and for
conservation and energy programs. They also need to know we saved $20
billion with the last farm bill.”
Argument Continues In Federal Ethanol Program
While some senators are calling for scaling back the nation’s
renewable fuels industry, others are reaffirming their commitment to
ethanol. Also, analysts say lawmakers are unlikely to roll back popular
ethanol subsidies during an election year.
Congress will not "turn on the Corn Belt" because of the significant
number of votes held by ethanol-producing states, Friedman, Billings,
Ramsey & Co. analyst Kevin Book says. Ethanol subsidies could face
greater risks, however, in 2009 and going forward, according to
Book.
Twenty-four Republican senators, including presidential candidate Sen.
John McCain (R-AZ), have sent a letter to the Environmental Protection
Agency (EPA) suggesting it waive, or restructure, rules that require a
fivefold increase in ethanol production over the next 15 years. However,
Sen. Charles Grassley (R-IA) says "ethanol is unfairly taking the brunt
of the criticism" for escalating food prices.
Congress passed a law last year mandating a ramp-up to 15 billion
gallons of corn ethanol by 2015 and 36 billion by 2022. But McCain and
other Republicans say those rules should be suspended to put more corn
back into the food supply for animal feed, and to encourage farmers to
plant other crops.
"This subsidized (ethanol) program, paid for by taxpayer dollars, has
contributed to pain at the cash register, at the dining room table and a
devastating food crisis throughout the world," says McCain..
EPA spokesman Jonathan Shradar says the Bush administration remains
committed to ethanol as an alternative fuel because of its potential to
"get our nation off its addiction to foreign oil."
Ethanol, which is blended with gasoline, currently accounts for roughly
5% of the nation's vehicle fuel mix. Under renewable fuel mandates that
percentage would wise to about 22% by 2022. Texas Gov. Rick Perry has
asked EPA for a 50% waiver from renewable fuels standards, citing high
food costs.
Cattle organizations are also stampeding against the program that
provides a 52-cent tax incentive for ethanol production. They charge
that the subsidy puts cattle feeders and others at a disadvantage in
buying grain for feed. “We don’t believe ethanol is totally
responsible for high corn prices, but it is a big factor,” says Ross
Wilson, president of Texas Cattle Feeders Association, Amarillo, TX,
which represents feedyards that produce about 35% of the nation’s
fed-cattle supply.
Wilson, speaking at the 92nd meeting of the Panhandle Grain and Feed
Association in Amarillo, says “we all know we need renewable fuel
supplies,” but there is growing opposition to the ethanol program as
it is written. “It’s still anyone’s guess that we will see any
change in renewable fuel policy,” he says.
Farmer groups are standing up for the renewable fuels program. "We don't
think it's the right move to make," says Liz Friedlander, a spokeswoman
for the National Farmers Union. The group has defended corn-based
production of the alternative fuel, saying its impact on the rising food
prices has been relatively small. Instead, it points to higher fuel
prices, poor weather conditions and dwindling stockpiles of wheat and
other crops.
Also, the ethanol industry says altering the biofuels mandate "would
drive the price of oil and gasoline through the roof," according to Matt
Hartwig, a spokesman for the Renewable Fuels Association.
Economic Planner Says China's Grain Stocks Sufficient
Associated Press reports that a statement from China’s economic
planner claims China has enough grain to keep food prices steady. "Our
grain supply and demand is basically steady, our reserves are full and
we can guarantee the supply and stability of grain prices," the
statement says, adding that reserves alone could meet demand for six
months.
China subsidizes grain farming to encourage an adequate supply and
controls prices for rice and some other agricultural staples, creating a
gap with international prices. The government has also boosted payments
to grain farmers and is shifting grain from grain belts in the north to
heavily populated southern areas where consumption outstrips production.
But rising food prices helped boost the country's inflation rate to a
nearly 12-year peak of 8.7% in February. Chinese families are feeling
the pinch of higher prices for food, which accounts for half of spending
for many families. The jump in food costs has unnerved the country's
communist leaders, given the public protests that followed bouts of
inflation in the 1980s and 1990s.
According to estimates by the U.N. Food and Agricultural Organization,
China's grain production is expected to rise 0.2% in 2008 to 390.2 mmt,
up from 389.2 mmt in 2007. China consumed 185 mmt of rice last year,
about even with its production. The government ended tax rebates for
exports of rice, wheat, soybeans and corn late last year and imposed
tariffs of up to 25% on exports of 52 food products, including major
grains and soybeans, to discourage sales overseas.
National Sorghum Producers Checkoff
USDA has published a final order on the proposed National Sorghum
Checkoff and will begin collecting assessments on July 1. National
Sorghum Producers (NSP) President Dale Murden is optimistic about the
role a checkoff will play in the sorghum industry's future. "Now is the
time to invest in sorghum," says Murden. "A national sorghum checkoff
will leverage private industry investment while partnerships with public
and private research and development operations will help bring
technology to our fields."
Lloyd Day, administrator of USDA's Agricultural Marketing Service (AMS),
says now that a final order has been published, a certification process
will begin for organizations to become eligible to put forward names for
the National Sorghum Checkoff Board. USDA will then start accepting
board nominations from these organizations and the Secretary of
Agriculture will appoint directors to serve on the Checkoff Board.
"We ask that sorghum producers help us find qualified candidates for a
national board and encourage those producers to serve our industry,"
says Murden.
The Sorghum Promotion, Research and Information order will collect 0.6%
of net market value for grain sorghum. For sorghum forage such as hay
and silage, the assessment will be .35% of market value and will only be
collected from first handlers who purchase more than 5,000 tons per
year.
NSP chief executive officer Tim Lust says NSP will work proactively with
sorghum handlers and producers to provide an efficient transition to a
national checkoff. "Our goal is to make this as smooth a process as
possible,” he says. "NSP looks forward to working with the National
Checkoff Board to help solve industry problems and increase sorghum
profitability in producers' fields," adds Murden.
Economist Calls On U.S., EU To Reconsider Biofuel Targets As Food
Prices Surge
Economist Jeffrey Sachs is urging the U.S. and the European Union (EU)
to reconsider a shift to biofuels that has helped increase food prices
by turning agricultural land over to energy crops, according to an
Associated Press story. Targets to produce more fuels that
release less carbon dioxide "do not make sense now in a global food
scarcity condition," says Sachs, a special adviser to the United
Nations. "In the U.S. as much as one-third of the maize crop this year
will go to the gas tank and this is a huge blow to the world food
supply, so these programs should be cut back significantly."
Sachs claims that, so far, the U.S. biofuel program has had more impact
on food shortages, but Europe's plans to rapidly boost biofuel output in
coming years would also start to bite. "Neither of them makes much sense
actually in terms of the environmental effect, the energy balance, or
the food impact, so I would advocate a reconsideration of both under the
new market conditions," he says.
But European Commission spokesman Michael Mann insists that biofuels
were not a significant factor in pushing up food prices. More important
are recent poor global harvests, growing demand in Asia and export
restrictions from grain exporters Ukraine and Russia, he says.
"In Europe, we use less than 2% of our cereals production for biofuels,
so their contribution to higher food prices is marginal, if not
nonexistent, in the European context," he says, adding that the EU did
not expect future food prices to be affected by a target to replace 10%
of all transport fuel with biofuels by 2010. That’s because Europe
planned to increase the amount of land under cultivation and use crop
waste, such as straw, to make second-generation biofuels.
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New Agribusiness Job
Web Site
Penton Media’s Ag Group, of which Corn & Soybean
Digest is a member, has launched a new targeted online career
center. Agribizjobs.com -- www.agribizjobs.com -- offers
industry employers a growing, qualified audience of ag professionals and
industry jobseekers with agribusiness-specific, categorized job
listings. It’s a joint effort by Corn & Soybean Digest and its
sister publications, BEEF, Farm Industry News, Farm Press, Hay and
Forage Grower and National Hog Farmer.
At www.agribizjobs.com,
employers can view complete but anonymous resumes for free, and pay only
to connect with a job-seeker. Job-seekers can post resumes in
ag-specific employment categories and sign up to receive e-mail alerts
when new positions are posted that match their search criteria. The
site’s Anonymous Resume Bank enables both active and passive
jobseekers to list their experience and qualifications in a protected
environment, allowing them to stay connected to the employment market
while maintaining full control of their confidential information.
Updated Marketing,
Farm Bill, Biofuels And Other News At Corn & Soybean Digest Web
Site
Follow the latest analysis of corn and soybean futures
prices and market trends at cornandsoybeandigest.com/
our flagship Web site. There’s information on the farm bill, market
commentary and lots of other news you can use to better manage your
farm.
If your latest issue of Corn & Soybean Digest magazine isn’t
handy, you can access it and past issues to revisit subjects that can
impact your corn and soybean production and marketing. The site's news
from across the Corn Belt, other corn- and soybean-production areas and
the worldwide markets for corn and beans can help you stay on top of
events that can help or hurt prices.
Go to cornandsoybeandigest.com/
now and stay up-to-the-minute on the timeliest analysis and other
information on corn and soybean production and prices.
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Wanted: Your
Innovative Ideas
If you or someone you know has an innovative idea to
save time or money when growing corn or soybeans, we’d like to hear
from you. No idea is too big or too small. Your suggestion could be a
piece of equipment that’s been built from scratch, or several pieces
of equipment that have been torn down and re-assembled as a single unit,
or simple modifications to existing machinery.
It’s always interesting to see anhydrous applicators, planters,
sprayers and tillage tools that people have constructed to help them
farm better, bigger or more efficiently. However, machinery innovations
aren’t the only way to save money or add to efficiencies. We’re
interested in any cost-saving ideas that you’ve implemented to stay
profitable. For example, have you been involved in any machinery-sharing
ventures, group input-buying clubs or been working with a consultant who
has helped you increase your bottom line?
If you have an idea you’d like to share, please send an e-mail to CSD@csdigest.com or call Managing
Editor Susan Winsor at 952-851-4662, or click on the following link to
enter your thoughts -- snap-surveys.com/prismb2b/Grau/CSDShop/csd08shopproject.htm.
Thanks in advance for your help.
Subscribe
To These Other E-newsletters from Corn & Soybean Digest
There are several other e-newsletters from Corn &
Soybean Digest. They include F.I.R.S.T. Harvest Reports
(seasonal), Corn E-Digest, Soybean E-Digest and Crop News Weekly.
Check them out at subscribe.cornandsoybeandigest.com/subscribe.cfm?tc=NLSUB.
Thanks for taking time to review this MarketMaxx newsletter. If you have
comments or questions about MarketMaxx, e-mail your editor, Larry
Stalcup, at beef2lar@suddenlink.net.
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