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What's Happening
in MarketMaxx?
May 28, 2008
Midnight, May 31 – this week – is the deadline to get signed up for
MarketMaxx! It’s your last chance to start playing the fun and
rewarding marketing game from Corn & Soybean Digest. If
you’re an eligible farmer, you could win a year’s free use of a new
combine or tractor.
Go to www.MarketMaxx.net right
now and get started playing.
As a MarketMaxx player you'll have a simulated 100,000 bu. of
corn and 50,000 bu. of soybeans to trade using Chicago Board of Trade
(CBOT) futures, options or cash-forward contracts. The eligible farmer
with the highest average selling price of his or her virtual corn or
soybeans when the contest ends Oct. 31, 2008, will take home a grand
prize.
By playing MarketMaxx, you can sharpen your skills at using
futures and options trading. In today’s volatile corn and soybean
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MarketMaxx Prizes
More than 8,220 players are signed up for MarketMaxx. Grand prize for
the corn contest is a Gleaner R5 or A5 series combine (up to 100 combine
separator hours). The soybean winner will receive a year's use (not to
exceed 250 hours) of the choice of any PowerMaxx CVT-equipped AGCO RT or
DT series tractor.
Second prize for each contest is a complete computer system plus
software from Syngenta Crop Protection. Third prize in the corn contest
is a complete Leica mojoRTK auto-steer system from Leica Geosystems.
Third prize in the soybean contest and fourth prize in the corn contest
is a DICKEY-john mini GAC Plus handheld moisture tester.
By signing up, you’ll continue receiving this MarketMaxx
e-newsletter, which will keep you updated on the game through its
listing of top 10 players in the corn and soybean contests. The latest
market commentary from leading university and private grain marketing
specialists -- information you can use to enhance your corn and soybean
marketing program -- is available in every newsletter. It will
continue to arrive in your e-mail box every other week throughout the
year -- but only if you’re signed up by May 31.
So go to www.MarketMaxx.net and
get started playing MarketMaxx. But don’t put it off. You have
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MarketMaxx Leaderboard
(May 27, 2008)
Top 10 Leaders – Corn Contest
Roy Sangmeister, Manhattan, IL, $7.78.73
Corey Brandau, Peotone, IL, $7.66.97
Ralph Sangmeister, Peotone, IL, $7.00.5
Chris Schnell, Sully, IA, $6.97.97
Brian Roh, Dodgeville, WI, $6.93.54
Arlan Shelly, Atmore, AL, $6.88.47
Terry Hiatt, Atlanta, MO, $6.83.34
David Bitto, Elberta, AL, $6.77.97
Charles Bonner, Summerdale, AL, $6.77.35
David Womack, Atmore, AL, $6.75.47
Top 10 Leaders – Soybean Contest
Roy Sangmeister, Manhattan, IL, $19.56.09
Corey Brandau, Peotone, IL, $19.43.77
Ed Krelo, Elkville, IL, $1688.82
Steve Mercer, Kearney, NE, $16.39.1
Andy Bensend, Dallas, WI, $15.96.98
Jeremy Svitak, Howells, NE, $15.70.97
Rick Lemke, Mequon, WI, $15.28.83
Jim Spahr, Seward, NE, $15.10.9301
Arlin DePatis, Walnut, IL, $15.02.95
Holly Utterback, Robinson, IL, $14.83.45
Market
Commentary
Not Enough Corn For 2008-2009?
By Chris Hurt, Purdue University Extension economist
Can the U.S. raise enough corn in 2008 to meet the consumption base that
is developing? The answer is probably not; at least not everyone who has
been using U.S. corn will have that opportunity in the 2008/09 marketing
year.
Take as an example the consumption base from the 2007 crop at 13 billion
bushels and add another 1 billion bushels of new ethanol capacity. That
gives a base of 14 billion bushels of use, but USDA’s first projection
of crop size is only 12.1 billion bushels. This means two things will
occur. First, end users must cut back on consumption and secondly, corn
stocks will be reduced to bare minimums by August 2009.
Which of the end users will cut back on corn consumption? USDA has made
its first projection and say it will be almost everyone. They have cut
the amount of corn the animal industry will use from 6.15 billion from
the 2007 crop to just 5.3 billion from the 2008 crop. This reduction of
850 million bushels can be adjusted by about 250 million bushels of corn
equivalent that will come from feeding distiller’s grains. So that
means a reduction of around 600 million in feed/residual use or a 10%
cutback.
Foreign buyers will have to cut back on U.S. corn supplies as well. USDA
suggests it will reduce purchases from the record 2.5 billion bushels to
2.1 million or a 16% reduction. These huge reductions will be necessary
to accommodate another 1 billion bushels of corn for U.S. ethanol, which
will reach 31% of total corn use. This is up from 14% for the 2005 crop.
Most importantly, ending stocks in August 2009 will be depleted to just
763 million bushels, a mere 22 day’s supply.
There is much to be determined before we reach August 2009. Final corn
acreage and yields are the first to consider. Corn planting is late in
the Eastern Corn Belt, but desperately late in the Western Corn Belt.
Minnesota and Missouri were about 50% behind on corn planting earlier
this month. Iowa and South Dakota each were 30% or more behind. The
nation was 26% behind the five-year average.
This season is the latest corn planting rate back to 1980. Late planting
is associated with lower corn yields on average across the country.
Summer weather is much more important to yields than planting
date. So, I would reduce the expected yields by about 3 bu./acre now to
151 bu., but since summer weather determines maybe 75-80% of the yield,
a favorable weather summer could still bring yields back to, or even
above trend.
Planted acres still remain unknown. Economic returns continue to favor
planting corn in the Midwest through late May, even if expected yields
have started downward due to late planting. This is because corn
prices are so strong relative to soybeans. Purdue budgets and market
prices on May 13, suggest more than $100/acre higher expected returns
for corn compared to soybeans. This means that late-planted corn yields
could drop 20 bu./acre before soybeans begin to show greater
returns.
In addition, soybean seed is difficult to secure.
I’m estimating
that corn acreage will be at 88 million acres compared with the USDA
survey level of 86 million acres. With 151-bu. yields, this would mean a
crop size of 12.2 billion bushels, just slightly higher than the current
USDA number. Continued cool weather suggests slow progress on completing
planting. This should continue to be a price friendly factor.
Finishing old-crop pricing now should be considered except for those
bushels one wants to “bet” on a weather scenario this summer.
Once the corn is planted, some concerns will be reduced until the summer
weather patterns begin to develop. This may mean a period of somewhat
lower prices in late-May and June.
Corn prices have reached the
levels mentioned in past updates ($6.40 July futures and $6.50 on
December futures). Bids are generally 8-12 cents higher for July
delivery, so consider pricing on-farm stored corn for July delivery.
Generally, commercially stored corn will not cover the added storage
costs to July.
Without 2008 weather problems, corn prices may be
near their highs. First, consider new crop wheat bids in the range of
$6-6.50 bu. Corn has about 90%, of the feeding value of wheat which
means corn might be capped at about $5.40-5.85 if there is sufficient
wheat to begin feeding some to livestock. Very good wheat yields could
lower those numbers.
Secondly, ethanol processors’ current corn breakeven prices are about
$5.75, (with record high crude oil at $125 per barrel). They can bid
somewhat higher on corn prices, but will begin to move into losses. Of
course the direction of crude oil will also be important with higher
crude potentially related to higher corn prices.
The 2008 crop will be the tightest corn supplies yet in the biofuels
era. This means prices will remain strong, but there are limits to how
high that price can be. December futures at $6.50 had been the objective
and that has now been achieved, so consider pricing up to 40% of
expected new crop production.
A number of elevators have restored
their new crop pricing programs with calmer price movements in recent
weeks.
Basis bids are generally still wider than I believe they will be at
harvest. This favors working with a commodity broker to establish
new-crop futures or options positions. However, many will prefer to work
with their elevator manager as normal and not spend the summer worrying
about potential margin calls from their broker.
There is a long way to go. The market has little idea of actual planted
acres this year; yields are clearly not known and will depend on summer
weather; usage will need to be cut sharply and we do not know who is
going to cut back.
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Additional
Commentary
Crude Oil Price Hikes Impact On The Farm
Between 2003 and 2007, the majority of corn and soybean production cost
increases can be attributed to crude oil price increases, according to a
new University of Illinois Extension study.
"If crude oil prices
continue to rise, production costs for corn and soybeans likely will
continue to rise," says Gary Schnitkey, a U of I Extension farm
financial management specialist.
"Rising energy costs have brought into existence an era of high
production costs for corn and soybeans. These higher costs necessitate
higher corn and soybean prices for farmers to be profitable."
That is the conclusion of Schnitkey's report, "Impacts of Rising Crude
Oil Prices on Corn and Soybean Production Costs," that is available on
Extension's farmdoc website, www.farmdoc.uiuc.edu/manage/newsletters/fefo08_10/fefo08_10.html.
The report's co-author is Anuj Gupta, a former undergraduate student in
the U of I Department of Agricultural and Consumer Economics.
"Crude oil prices, corn production costs and soybean production costs
have tended to move together over time," says Schnitkey. "Recently, for
example, crude oil prices and production costs have increased
dramatically.
"Between 2003 and 2007, crude oil prices increased by $39 per barrel, a
138% increase, corn production costs in central Illinois on
high-productivity farmland increased by $100/acre, a 42% increase, and
soybean costs increased by $45/acre, a 28% increase."
Looking at the relationship among these prices since 1972, Schnitkey and
Gupta found that each $1 increase in crude oil price increases corn
production costs by $1.51/acre and increases soybean production costs by
90 cents/acre.
"Between 2003 and 2007, crude oil price increases accounted for 58% of
corn cost increases and 79% of soybean cost increases," says Schnitkey.
"From 1972 through 2007, inflation accounted for an average yearly
increase in production costs of $3.78/acre for corn and $4.26/acre for
soybeans. Due to crude oil price increases, corn costs in 2008 are
expected to be $48/acre higher than in 2007 and soybean costs are
expected to increase by $29/acre."
The report also notes that model results can be used to predict corn and
soybean costs based on anticipated crude oil prices. "Forecasts of costs
should be viewed with caution as oil prices are outside the range of
prices used to estimate the model," says Schnitkey. "Often, poor
forecasting experience occurs in these cases. Given this caution, our
model suggests that large increases in crude oil prices could lead to
significantly higher corn and soybean costs.
"For example, a $120 crude oil price implies a $78 increase in corn
costs, a 23% increase over 2007 corn costs. Soybean costs would
increased by $47/acre given the $120 crude oil price, a 23% increase
over the 2007 soybean costs. A $150 crude oil price results in a
$124/acre corn cost increase, 36% over 2007, and a $74/acre soybean cost
increase, 36% over 2007 levels."
Other News That Can
Impact Corn And Soybean Prices
Finally … A Farm Bill
After well over a year of cussing and discussing, the new Farm Bill has
been passed, despite being vetoed by President George W. Bush. And any
doubts that farm organizations and other supported the 2008 Farm Bill
conference report were laid aside when more than 1,000 of them sent a
letter to the House and Senate urging them to override the president’s
veto.
Farm Press reports that the groups also mounted a massive
telephone and e-mail campaign that left no doubt where the majority of
the nation’s farmers stood on the conference report, the Food,
Conservation and Energy Act of 2008. The House subsequently voted to
override the veto by a vote of 318-106. Because of a mistake in the
enrollment process, the House revoted on the bill’s Trade and Food Aid
Title, which was inadvertently omitted from the bill sent to the
president on May 20. The Senate also had the override votes to offset
the president.
The National Farmers Union’s Tom Buis, who was credited by House
leaders with being one of the prime behind-the-scene movers on the farm
bill, summed up the feeling of most farm organizations. “There is
widespread support for the farm bill, both across this great nation and
in Congress as we saw in last week’s super-majority votes,” he says.
National Corn Grower Association (NCGA) leaders also supported the
override, while defending the Average Crop Revenue Enhancement (ACRE)
program against Bush administration attacks. “We are gratified that
the farm bill received bipartisan support from the House,” says NCGA
President Ron Litterer. “This is a bill that producers have needed for
some time.”
In the letter sent by the 1,054 state and national organizations, the
authors said the “conference report makes significant farm policy
reforms, protects the safety net for all of America’s food producers,
addresses important infrastructure needs for specialty crops, increases
funding to feed our nation’s poor, and enhances support for important
conservation initiatives.
“This is by no means a perfect piece of legislation, and none of our
organizations achieved everything we had individually requested.
However, it is a carefully balanced compromise of policy priorities that
has broad support among organizations representing the nation’s
agriculture, conservation and nutrition interests.”
Among the revisions in the farm bill is the elimination of the
three-entity rule. Also, says Farm Press, spouses are provided
greater equity. Redemptions of loans with certificates no longer will be
authorized and limitations on marketing loan gains are eliminated.
Cumulative limits on direct and counter-cyclical payments are maintained
at current levels resulting in a 50% reduction for some growers due to
the termination of the three-entity rule.
The agreement significantly tightens an income means test first enacted
in 2002, by providing that individuals with non-farm income exceeding
$500,000 will be ineligible for all program benefits, and those with
farm income exceeding $750,000 will be ineligible for decoupled income
support. These and other modifications to eligibility standards in this
farm will help ensure program benefits are directed to true farmers.
U.S. Biodiesel Industry Faces Tough Times
Knight Ridder newspapers reports that 10 months after the
nation's largest biodiesel plant opened on the coast of Washington
state, its owners are facing the same financial pressures that have
brought a once high-flying industry down to earth.
Imperium
Renewables Inc., has delayed a $345-million initial public offering, put
on hold its plans for four additional plants and trimmed its corporate
staff. Its chief executive officer resigned without explanation.
The $78-million plant on the Pacific coast is still operating, even
though prices of soybean oil and other vegetable oils have jumped
100-200% in the past year. Hopes to buy much of the feedstock from
eastern Washington farmers never blossomed and, instead, the plant is
using mostly canola oil from Canada.
And while biodiesel was supposed to help reduce Americans' dependence on
foreign oil and cut greenhouse gas emissions, the domestic market has
not materialized as expected. Virtually all of Imperium's product is
being shipped to Europe. "We are experiencing challenging times," says
John Plaza, Imperium's founder and current CEO. "The entire industry is
facing this."
Ever the entrepreneur, Plaza isn't about to give up, Knight
Ridder reports. His latest venture, with the help of Boeing, is to
develop and manufacture green aviation fuel. A Virgin Atlantic 747 that
flew from London to Amsterdam in February was partially powered by a
biofuel produced by Imperium. It was the first such flight by a
commercial airline. One of the plane's engines was powered by a mixture
of kerosene, babassu oil and coconut oil. Babassu oil, from the nuts of
the babassu tree in the Amazon, and coconut oil, are often used in
cosmetics.
"It's a hot topic out of necessity," says Plaza, adding that the green
aviation fuel could be cheaper than the Jet A fuel now used and could
reduce jets’ carbon dioxide emissions by 80%. Airplanes could start
flying regularly on biofuel within three to five years, and the Grays
Harbor plant could be modified to produce it.
Imperium's financial problems are not unique. Because its plant is
located on the coast, it has one advantage -- it is easier to ship its
products to Europe than if located in the landlocked Midwest. Several
biodiesel companies have recently filed for bankruptcy, some plants have
suspended operations and construction on other plants has been halted.
"Some of the industry's players are facing rougher times than others,"
says Amber Thurlo Pearson, a spokeswoman for the National Biodiesel
Board. Theories abound as to why the cost of vegetable oils has soared.
Some say farmers aren't planting as many acres of soybeans, switching to
corn as demand for ethanol has grown. Of the 450 million to 500 million
gallons of biodiesel manufactured in the U.S., about 80% are made from
soybean oil.
Hog Market Hurt By High Corn Prices
A combination of high feed costs and low market prices has driven hog
producers into the red. Many hog farmers lost close to $30 per head
through the winter, but a seasonal rise in prices has brought producers
closer to the break-even point, reports the St. Joseph News-Press
The high prices made Dale Akey feel better about bringing a load of hogs
to the St. Joseph, MO, stockyards last week. "We just sort of rode the
storm out and tried not to sell if we didn't have to. When they get too
big, though, you have to sell," says Akey.
Akey raises about 500 hogs on his farm near Cameron, MO. He also grows
corn, which softens the financial blow that expensive feed can inflict
on produces that don't have access to free grain. "If we didn't have our
own corn, it would be really tough," says Akey. "Still, it would make
more money if we sold our corn through the market instead of feeding it
through hogs."
Small producers generally suffer the most from a rough market. Even
large companies like Triumph Foods, which is producer-owned, are not
immune to dips in the market. Patt Lilly, Triumph chief administrative
officer, says the effects low hog prices have on both the production and
processing ends of the pork industry.
Most of the company's producers are large and financially stable, says
Lilly, but smaller farms sell to Triumph as well. If hog prices remain
too low for too long, some of the smaller producers may face financial
trouble or even go out of business. "We have a certain fixed cost as a
company from maintenance, wages and so on," says Lilly. "It's all a
matter of throughput. We have to find somewhere to get the 18,000 to
19,000 hogs per day that we run through our facility."
Meanwhile, the same low hog prices that stress Triumph's producers give
the company a better profit margin on the retail product it markets
through Seaboard Foods. Prices have taken a larger-than-expected leap
this spring, narrowing profit margins for packers while helping out
producers. Hogs that averaged $35/cwt. in mid-March now sell for around
$58.
The weekly hog report from University of Missouri economists Ron Plain
and Glen Grimes attributed the prices to a strong export market. China
is buying an especially large share of American pork, but the export
market is strong enough that it would show a 17% increase so far in 2008
even if all sales to China and Hong Kong were excluded, the report says.
Local producers like Akey don't ask too many questions about the
increasing prices. If the market puts hog farmers back in the black,
they'll take the price. "We've made money on hogs and they have been
good to us," says Akey. "We'll probably continue to raise hogs as long
as we're on the farm."
Ukraine Cancels Grain Export Quotas
Soyatech reports that Ukraine has canceled export quotas of wheat
and other grains, the country's Finance Minister Viktor Pynzenyk
announced on Wednesday.
Pynzenyk says that Ukraine does not need to
restrict grain exports for 2008 or for coming years.
On April 23, Ukrainian Prime Minister Yulia Tymoshenko indicated that
her government was ready to lift all restrictions on grain exports, but
the government has since put off the move until July 1 amid fears of
higher domestic prices. The World Bank has repeatedly called on Ukraine
to lift the restrictions.
Ukraine has some of Europe's richest land and is one of the world's
largest grain exporters. Tymoshenko predicted the country's grain yield
will reach 40 million metric tons (mmt) in 2008. Last year, Ukraine
produced 29.3 mmt of grain, including corn.
ARS Finds New Way To Obtain Corn Rootworm Genetic Markers
USDA Agricultural Research Service (ARS) scientists have led the way in
finding a new technique to obtain genetic markers to sort out corn
rootworm (Diabrotica virgifera) populations. This method is
faster and cheaper than existing techniques, and it can be used to
characterize genetic variation in any animal species.
Entomologists Tom Sappington and Kyung Seok Kim work at the ARS Corn
Insects and Crop Genetics Research Unit in Ames, IA. For this research,
they partnered with ARS-North Central Agricultural Research Laboratory
entomologist B. Wade French in Brookings, SD, and University of Illinois
colleagues Susan Ratcliffe and Lei Liu.
Researchers often use sections of DNA called short sequence repeats
(SSRs) to study the interactions between different populations of the
same species. Although they are superior genetic markers, SSRs are
typically identified by random, expensive and time-consuming searches
through the total DNA extracted from an individual organism.
However, SSRs are also found in sections of DNA called expressed
sequence tags (ESTs). Species-specific EST databases support genetic
studies, including the identification of SSRs, in a range of plants and
animals. The ARS team set out to resolve whether they could use SSRs
obtained from existing corn rootworm EST databases, not SSRs identified
from individual DNA, to study the genetic relationships of rootworm
populations.
The researchers developed two sets of SSRs. One set contained 17 SSRs
developed using DNA from individual corn rootworms. The other set of 17
SSRs was created from an existing database of 6,397 corn rootworm ESTs.
The scientists pitted the two sets in a head-to-head competition
characterizing five western corn rootworm populations from around the
U.S. and a Mexican corn rootworm population from Texas. They found that
both sets could be used to assign individuals to the correct populations
with up to 80% accuracy.
These findings suggest that researchers studying population genetics can
save time and money by using ESTs in existing databases to identify
SSRs, instead of developing new SSRs from scratch.
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Updated Marketing,
Farm Bill, Biofuels And Other News At Corn & Soybean Digest Web
Site
Follow the latest analysis of corn and soybean futures
prices and market trends at cornandsoybeandigest.com/
our flagship Web site. There’s information on the farm bill, market
commentary and lots of other news you can use to better manage your
farm.
If your latest issue of Corn & Soybean Digest magazine isn’t
handy, you can access it and past issues to revisit subjects that can
impact your corn and soybean production and marketing. The site's news
from across the Corn Belt, other corn- and soybean-production areas and
the worldwide markets for corn and beans can help you stay on top of
events that can help or hurt prices.
Go to cornandsoybeandigest.com/
now and stay up-to-the-minute on the timeliest analysis and other
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Thanks for taking time to review this MarketMaxx newsletter. If you have
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