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What's Happening
in MarketMaxx?
June 24, 2008
Flooded With High Prices
Growers across much of the Corn Belt are suffering from flooding that
historians say only happens once every half a millennium. We at Corn
& Soybean Digest send our thoughts and prayers to those who are
suffering from the devastation. Record high prices for corn and soybeans
don’t mean much if there is no crop to harvest.
Players in the MarketMaxx game know how events like the recent
floods can impact grain prices. Prices were headed up even before the
flooding. And may continue to do so. Volatility in the corn and soybean
futures markets have created some shifts in MarketMaxx contest
leaders, as is witnessed by the rearranging of our leaderboards seen
below.
In the market commentary columns, also seen below, one can see how
decisions on marketing can and will continue to be impacted by Mother
Nature and a host of other factors. For those growers who are seeing
good growing conditions outside the disaster areas, there are still
excellent opportunities to lock in prices never or rarely seen before.
For those who won’t be able to take advantage of high prices, a boost
may be needed from other sources.
The American Red Cross is seeking donations to help in its
efforts to help those in need. To donate to the National Disaster
Relief Fund, call 1-800-GIVENOW. or visit www.redcross.org.
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MarketMaxx Leaderboard
(June 20, 2008)
Top 10 Leaders – Corn Contest
Terry Hiatt, Atlanta, MO, $9.39.68
Howard Wilson, Marlette, MI, $9.24.45
Roy Sangmeister, Manhattan, IL, $9.16.76
Janice Good, Medina, OH, $9.16.29
Dale Good, Medina, OH, $9.14.41
Scott Odle, Linden, IN, $8.85.94
Dave Terwillegar, Freeland, MI, $8.85.35
Corey Brandau, Peotone, IL, $8.84.93
Arlin DePatis, Walnut, IL, $8.82
Mary Holthaus, Decorah, IA, $8.77.53
Top 10 Leaders – Soybean Contest
Corey Brandau, Peotone, IL, $22.13.52
Roy Sangmeister, Manhattan, IL, $22.05.65
Andy Bensend, Dallas, WI, $18.08.35
Steve Mercer, Kearney, NE, $17.86.3,
Terry Hiatt, Atlanta, MO, $17.23.05
Jeremy Svitak, Howells, NE, $17.18.78
David Hadrick, Faulkton, SD, $17.16.72
Arlin DePatis, Walnut, IL, $17.14.5
Ed Krelo, Elkville, IL, $16.81.62
Holly Utterback, Robinson, IL, $16.71.8
MarketMaxx Prizes
All farmers in the contest are vying for a host of big
prizes. Grand prize for the corn contest is a Gleaner R5 or A5 series
combine (up to 100 combine separator hours). The soybean winner will
receive a year's use (not to exceed 250 hours) of the choice of any
PowerMaxx CVT-equipped AGCO RT or DT series tractor.
Second prize for each contest is a complete computer system plus
software from Syngenta Crop Protection. Third prize in the corn contest
is a complete Leica mojoRTK auto-steer system from Leica Geosystems.
Third prize in the soybean contest and fourth prize in the corn contest
is a DICKEY-john mini GAC Plus handheld moisture tester.
Players are reminded to visit the www.marketmaxx.net/ Web site and
take advantages of the services offered. There are links to help you
improve your marketing plan, a complete glossary to help you tone up
your knowledge of marketing tools available, and regular market
commentary from Kevin McNew, president of Cash Grain Bids. His review of
corn and soybean basis changes across the Corn Belt can help you get a
glimpse of markets across the country.
Take advantage of this MarketMaxx e-newsletter. The latest market
commentary from leading university and private grain marketing
specialists -- information you can use to enhance your corn and soybean
marketing program -- is available in every newsletter. Track leaders in
the game against your selling prices. It will continue to arrive in
your e-mail inbox every other week throughout the year.
Go to www.marketmaxx.net/ and
check out the MarketMaxx forum. And look over the many great
prizes offered by our MarketMaxx sponsors.
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Market Commentary
Rationing The 2008 U.S. Corn Crop
By Darrel Good, University of Illinois Extension economist
USDA’s World Agricultural Outlook Board lowered its expectation of the
size of the 2008 U.S. corn crop from 12.125 billion bushels in May to
11.735 billion in June. Extensive flooding in parts of the Midwest
suggest that production potential may be declining even further.
Consumption of U.S. corn during the 2008-2009 marketing year will likely
have to be less than the record 12.96 billion bushels projected for the
current marketing year. Historically, much of the reduced consumption in
years of tight supplies and high prices came in the domestic feed and
residual category. The most recent examples include 1980, 1983, 1988,
1993, 1995, 2002 and 2006. In those seven years, feed and residual use
declined by an average of about 11% from use during the previous
marketing year. The range was from 5% (2002-2003) to 18% (1988-1989).
U.S. corn exports also declined in the 1993-1994 marketing year (20%)
and in the 2002-2003 marketing year (17%). Both of those years were
characterized by extremely large coarse grain crops in the rest of the
world. Production outside of the U.S. in 1993-1994 was record large,
exceeding the previous record of 1990-1991 by 2.5%. Foreign production
in 2002-2003 was only fractionally smaller than the large crop of the
previous year and only 1.9% smaller than the previous record of
1996-1997. Only in 1995-1996 did domestic use of corn for food and
industrial purposes decline from the level of the previous year. The cut
totaled 87 million bushels, or 5.1%, of the previous year’s use.
The current World Agricultural Outlook Board projections for consumption
of U.S. corn during the 2008-2009 marketing year are consistent with
historical patterns. Feed and residual use is projected to decline by
16.3%. Exports are expected to decline by 21.2%, reflecting the forecast
of a record large coarse grain crop outside of the U.S. as well as a
record large world wheat crop. Domestic consumption of corn for ethanol
is expected to increase by one billion bushels (33%) while use of corn
for all other food and industrial uses is expected to equal that of the
current marketing year.
While feed and residual use of sorghum is expected to increase, the
total consumption of sorghum, barley, oats and wheat is expected to
decline by about 3.4%. The cut in domestic feed and residual use of corn
will be accomplished in a number of ways. USDA expects the number of
grain consuming animal units to decline by 1.1 million, or about 1.2%.
Domestic feeding of soybean meal is expected to increase by nearly 1%
and we project that domestic feeding of distillers grains could increase
by about 32%. Adding the projections for the various categories suggests
that total feed and residual use of grain and protein will decline by
8.5% and that use per animal unit will decline by nearly 8%.
Estimated consumption per animal during the current year, however, is
very high and may reflect an overestimate of the size of the 2007 U.S.
corn crop. Still, consumption per animal unit during the 2008-2009
marketing year is expected to be near the lowest level of the past 10
years. Some of the reduction may be offset by increased feeding of hay
and forage made available by the CRP initiative described few weeks ago.
Corn prices have moved sharply higher as production expectations have
been scaled back. It is still not clear how much rationing will be
required during the 2008-2009 marketing year. USDA will release its
annual Acreage report on June 30 which may provide some insight
into potential crop size. However, some acreage had not yet been planted
or replanted at the time of data collection. The report, then, will
still reflect a fair amount of planting intentions.
Harvested acreage for grain may also be difficult to anticipate with the
recent widespread flooding. USDA’s quarterly Hogs and Pigs
report will be released on June 27 and may give some hint of how
livestock producers are responding to higher feed prices. Responses,
however, may not completely reflect the recent surge in feed prices.
A fair amount of crop loss and demand rationing are already priced into
the corn market with December 2008 futures approaching $8. The worst of
the crop stress may have passed and more favorable growing conditions
are forecast. Corn prices may now moderate somewhat, at least until more
is known about crop size.
Additional
Commentary
“I Won’t Do That Again!”
By Melvin Brees, University if Missouri Food And Agriculture Policy
Research Institute (FABRI)
Corn prices have continued their uptrend, setting new record highs
several times in recent weeks. Soybean prices have rebounded after an
early spring decline and have now moved higher than the previous record
prices set earlier in the year. Many analysts have referred to this
price action as a “perfect storm” that has resulted from just the
right combination of factors to send grain prices to levels most never
thought was possible.
Growing world grain demand, a weak dollar that is encouraging exports,
strong domestic feed demand, high oil prices, policies favoring biofuel
production, weather that produced disappointing crops in various parts
of the world, bidding for acres, investment funds flowing into
commodities, inflation and policies to curb exports in some foreign
countries are among some of the many factors that contributed to high
grain prices. Adding to this mix is excessive Corn Belt rainfall causing
planting delays, flooding and replanting that is apt to reduce 2008 crop
production.
While some try to point at a single cause, it is the combination of
these and other factors that have caused the bull market and record
prices in grains. Although high grain prices should be good news to
grain producers, marketing in this situation is challenging.
For example, in late February soybean prices were at record highs and
corn prices were near previous highs. This was the first time since 1973
that soybean prices had reached a new high and corn prices had only set
a new record high once (1996) in more than 30 years. New record high
prices do not occur often and making sales when they occurred was
expected to be the right thing to do.
Many of these earlier sales of 2008 production are now, at best, nothing
to brag about. Many producers are now in the position of thinking
they sold too early, sold too much, sold at too low of a price and some
maybe even sold more than they may produce. What seemed like an easy
decision to sell at almost unheard of prices in late winter now appears
to have been the wrong decision.
In spite of the fact that most of these are still profitable sales, the
reaction often is, “I won’t do that again!” However, selling near
record high prices is probably something that should be done again. When
marketing grain, it is important to keep focus and concentrate on
marketing the remainder of the crops at favorable prices. Do not dwell
on “I wish I hadn’t sold then.” Concentrate on how to make
additional sales at record price levels. What kind of pricing
opportunities are the markets offering? USDA’s latest supply/demand
projections (June) forecast tight corn supplies with farm prices ranging
from $5.30-6.30/bu.
New-crop corn futures prices have been more than $1.50 higher than the
top end of this price range! USDA’s forecast for soybean prices is
from $11.00-12.50/bu. November 2008 soybean futures prices are nearly $3
higher. In spite of these record level prices, corn and soybean prices
remain in steep uptrends, signaling that prices will continue to move
higher. Supply/demand factors continue to support the markets as well.
Many market observers will watch price action closely in late June and
early July, since markets’ peaks frequently occur in this time period.
But, predicting a top is difficult to do. This suggests strategies using
technical analysis signals, such as broken uptrends, broken price
support levels, etc., which can allow following price uptrends in effort
to target sales near price highs.
Using futures or options can protect prices without committing to
delivery of the grain when production is uncertain. It is also necessary
to follow the markets closely, as prices can reverse quickly in volatile
markets. At these price levels, downside price risk is also huge.
Although weather and production uncertainty could still push prices
higher, most of the previously mentioned bullish factors may already be
priced into the market. Just as a number of market factors combined to
form the “perfect storm” that sent prices to these levels other
factors could come together and eventually send prices lower than
expected.
Although corn and soybean supplies will certainly be tight, improved
weather conditions would lessen crop production concerns. Livestock
liquidation by producers squeezed by high feed prices is likely to
reduce feed demand. Once this occurs it takes time to rebuild breeding
herds and restore demand for livestock feed.
High grain prices, some recovery in the strength of the dollar and
continued high transportation costs may eventually contribute to reduced
export demand. Foreign coarse grain supplies are expected to recover
somewhat. Increased wheat production will add to feeding of wheat, which
will also result in less foreign demand for US grain. Any weakness in
oil prices would squeeze ethanol production margins, leading to plant
shutdowns or delaying new plants from coming on-line. Policy efforts to
waive or repeal mandates, and allow biofuel tax credits or import
tariffs to expire, could also trim ethanol production and discourage new
investment in biofuel production.
Legislation or regulations to limit fund investment or trading in
commodity futures could lead to large scale futures liquidation by
investors and contribute to a price collapse. Other policy fixes, such
as opening up of Conservation Reserve Program (CRP) acres, along with
the potential for increased acreage and production next year, could help
bring about lower prices.
Tight supplies, production worries and strong demand are expected to
support prices at high levels. However, any of the above factors, or a
combination of more than one of them, could lead to lower prices and
possibly a sharp decline. This possibility reinforces being prepared to
make additional sales, especially if prices show any signs of weakness.
Although selling at what were very good prices earlier in the year (and
may now be somewhat disappointing prices) may be discouraging, this does
not mean selling near market highs shouldn’t be done again. Spreading
sales and capturing high prices is still more likely to be more
successful than not selling because “I don’t want to do that
again.”
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Other News That Can
Impact Corn And Soybean Prices
Once Again, Congress Overrides President’s Farm
Bill Veto
reports that an unusual case of Farm Bill déjà vu,
Congress voted late last week to override President Bush’s second veto
of the Food, Conservation and Energy Act. The U.S. House of
Representatives voted to override the veto by 317-109. “Today's vote
will ensure that all parts of the Food, Conservation and Energy Act are
enacted into law,” says Agriculture Committee Chairman Collin Peterson
(D-MN). “Particularly considering the serious concerns about rising
food prices and severe flooding affecting crops in the Midwest, this
farm bill provides a critical safety net for families and farmers.”
The Senate voted 80 to 14 to override the veto. Sen. Tom Harkin (D-IA),
chairman of the Senate Committee on Agriculture, Nutrition and Forestry,
says the veto override “completes action on the new farm bill,
enacting the full bill, including provisions on foreign food assistance
and agricultural trade. “The White House repeatedly tried to veto this
measure, but could not stand in the way of critical farm, food,
conservation and energy investments becoming law. Not only did this bill
pass both chambers with an overwhelming majority, but with the override
votes, we held our majorities. This proves we have a good, strong,
bipartisan farm bill. And after all of our hard work, it is a proud
result for Congress as this critical legislation becomes law.”
Last month, Congress approved the conference report for the Food,
Conservation and Energy Act (H.R. 2419). When that bill was sent to the
White House, one of the bill’s 15 titles was inadvertently left out of
the official copy of the bill vetoed by the President. Congress overrode
the veto of H.R. 2419, which enacted 14 of the bill's 15 titles into
law.
To ensure that all 15 titles are properly enacted, the House passed the
Food, Conservation and Energy Act a second time with a new bill number
(H.R. 6124). That bill was sent to the White House, and following
President Bush's veto, the House voted to override the veto.
Ethanol Margins Plunge; Plants Delayed
The massive flooding in the Corn Belt has taken its toll both on the
corn crop and on ethanol producer’s margins, spurring expectations of
significant production cutbacks and delays for new plants coming on
line, according toa report in Soyatech. VeraSun Energy Corp, one
of the leading U.S. ethanol producers, says it is delaying the opening
of two Midwest ethanol distilleries until market conditions improve.
U.S. Midwest spot ethanol prices jumped about 10 cents last Monday,
extending a steep climb that began this months due to the flooding in
the Corn Belt, but remain low relative to corn prices. According to Dow
Jones News Service, Citigroup analyst David Driscoll wrote in a research
note that ethanol margins have "plummeted" and "small and mid size
ethanol producers now running at substantial losses against cash costs."
Driscoll says that just a few weeks ago, margins were at breakeven, but
now spot cash margins for small to midsize ethanol producers are at a
loss of minus-45 cents/gallon. "As a result of the rapid margin
deterioration we believe that many, if not all, of the small to midsize
producers will be forced to shut down over the next few months with a
total potential reduction in ethanol production at 2-5 (billion gallons
per year," he says.
In the note, he continues, saying that "five mid to small ethanol plants
have gone offline" and Citi believes this only represents the top of the
iceberg. The delayed VeraSun plants, each scheduled to produce 110
million gallons per year and previously projected to come on line during
the second quarter, are located in Welcome, MN, and Hartley, IA.
VeraSun spokesman Michael Lockrem says record corn prices and
comparatively low ethanol prices, compared to spikes in gasoline prices,
have made producing ethanol difficult. “The combination of those two
things just don't warrant the start-up of those two facilities at this
time," he says. The decision had nothing to do with floods that have
ravaged the corn crop across the Midwest, spiking corn prices above
$7/bu., Lockrem says. The company still plans to open three other
ethanol distilleries by the end of this year in Iowa, Minnesota and
North Dakota.
Bumper Summer Crop Reassures China's Food Safety
China's agricultural authority has expressed confidence in the summer
harvest, as farmers around the country have put over half of the output
into granary with the rest to be cropped before the end of the month. A
Ministry of Agriculture official says that major grain production areas
are poised to sustain a bumper summer crop for the fifth year in a row,
maintaining the rising momentum in grain production, Soyatech
reports.
Summer crops, mainly cereals of rice and wheat, constitute 23% of the
country's annual grain harvest. It has grown for four consecutive years
to reach 501.5 million metric tons in 2007, almost level with the
country's annual consumption. "The summer harvest, which comes amid
global food crisis, reassures the world's most populous country of its
domestic food safety," says Han Jun, head of the rural section of the
State Council Development Research Center.
The state's protective grain purchase price and grain subsidy have been
the two effective measures for the Chinese government to keep farmers to
grow grain, says Zeng Liying, State Administration of Grain deputy head.
Chinese farmers have no longer been worried about selling grains, since
the government began to set the grain purchase price in 2004. They can
sell grains to the government via designated state-owned grain companies
at a "protective price," if the market price falls lower.
EU Launches Anti-Dumping, Anti-Subsidy Probes Into U.S. Biodiesel
The European Commission has launched anti-dumping and anti-subsidy
probes into the soaring imports of the U.S. biodiesel, opening a new
front of transatlantic trade row. "We have always said that the EU
(European Union) will not tolerate unfair trade practices and will
pursue vigorously any well-founded complaint," says Peter Power, a
spokesman for EU Trade Commissioner Peter Mandelson.
Soyatech reports that the commission says that the two probes
were initiated following complaints lodged on April 29 by the European
Biodiesel Board. The lobby group of the EU biodiesel producers claimed
the U.S. exports of so-called B99 biodiesel product, a blend of 99%
biodiesel with 1% mineral diesel, flooded the European markets due to a
U.S. heavy subsidy up to $300 U.S./ton. It resulted in substantial
adverse effects on the overall performance and the financial situation
of the EU industry, the Board says.
The EU anti-dumping and anti-subsidy investigations normally take no
more than a year, and in any case must be completed within 15 months,
after which the EU governments have the final say on whether to impose
definite duties for five years. However, during the investigation
period, the commission may, within 60 days to nine months, impose
provisional duties, which may last for six to nine months.
Company Works To Get Cedar Falls, IA Plant Back Online After
Flooding
Penford Corporation has announced that its principal subsidiary, Penford
Products Co., is making significant progress in the restoration of its
Cedar Rapids, IA plant. The plant was shut down June 12 due to record
flooding of the Cedar River and government-ordered mandatory evacuation
of the plant and surrounding areas. The impact has been widespread and
the entire community is collaborating to recover in and around Cedar
Rapids.
Penford Products sales and technical service personnel are working
intensively to assist customers in meeting their requirements. The plant
was entered and surveyed early this week. Outside resources have been
engaged and are now working on-site with Penford employees in the
evaluation and clean-up phase of the recovery. The company planned to
begin re-occupying sections of its Research and Development and
Administrative buildings last week.
Offcials say it’s still too early to estimate total damage costs or
when the plant will become fully operational. However, the company
presently anticipates that the facility will not be in position to
manufacture significant product volumes prior to the end of this August.
“We have an experienced team of exceptional employees who are
responding to this event,” says Tom Malkoski, Penford Corp. president
and CEO. “Detailed recovery plans are in place and are being
energetically implemented. In addition to its insurance policies, the
company believes that it has sufficient available capacity under its
existing credit facilities to fund expenditures required to restore the
plant to optimal operating conditions. We are committed to a complete
recovery of the business and to resume supplying our customers as
quickly as possible.”
NCGA Announces New Officers
The National Corn Growers Association (NCGA) Corn Board has elected
Darrin Ihnen, Hurley, SD, to the position of first vice president for
the 2009 fiscal year, which begins Oct. 1. Ihnen and his family operate
a farm growing irrigated and dryland corn and soybeans. They also raise
stock cows and manage a contract hog-feeding operation.
Ihnen has been involved in corn-grower issues at local, state and
national levels, participating in NCGA’s Leadership Academy, South
Dakota Corn Growers Association and NCGA’s Biotechnology Working Group
and Production and Stewardship Action Team. He is also chairman of the
board for POET Biorefining in Chancellor, SD.
“I’m proud to have been chosen by those I respect so much, and am
excited about the opportunity to further serve my fellow growers,”
Ihnen says. “The months and years ahead are offering us many
challenges and we have a great team in place to not only meet these
challenges but to continue expanding opportunities for our members.”
“Darrin has been a very active and respected grower-leader at the
local, state and national level,” says Ron Litterer, NCGA president.
“We’re proud he will be moving forward into a new leadership role
with NCGA and are looking forward to making the most of his experience
and insight.”
In October, Litterer, a Greene, IA, farmer, will become chairman of the
Corn Board and Bob Dickey of Laurel, NE, currently serving as first vice
president, will become board president. Officers are traditionally
rotated through the three positions each fiscal year.
The 15-member NCGA Corn Board executes the organization’s policy and
strategic vision, as set forth by the Corn Congress, the semiannual
meeting of affiliated state organizations. It also bears ultimate
responsibility for NCGA’s financial affairs. Ihnen’s election needs
to be ratified by the Corn Congress at its July 16 meeting in
Washington, D.C.
Agribusiness Job Web
Site
Penton Media’s Ag Group, of which Corn & Soybean
Digest is a member, has launched a new targeted online career
center. Agribizjobs.com – www.agribizjobs.com/home/
offers industry employers a growing, qualified audience of ag
professionals and industry jobseekers with agribusiness-specific,
categorized job listings. It’s a joint effort by Corn & Soybean
Digest and its sister publications, BEEF, Farm Industry News,
Farm Press, Hay & Forage Grower and National Hog Farmer.
At www.agribizjobs.com/home/
employers can view complete but anonymous resumes for free, and pay only
to connect with a job-seeker. Job-seekers can post resumes in
ag-specific employment categories and sign up to receive e-mail alerts
when new positions are posted that match their search criteria. The
site’s Anonymous Resume Bank enables both active and passive
jobseekers to list their experience and qualifications in a protected
environment, allowing them to stay connected to the employment market
while maintaining full control of their confidential information.
Updated Marketing,
Farm Bill, Biofuels And Other News At Corn & Soybean Digest Web
Site
Follow the latest analysis of corn and soybean futures
prices and market trends at www.cornandsoybeandigest.com
our flagship Web site. There’s information on the farm bill, market
commentary and lots of other news you can use to better manage your
farm.
If your latest issue of Corn & Soybean Digest magazine isn’t
handy, you can access it and past issues to revisit subjects that can
impact your corn and soybean production and marketing. The site's news
from across the Corn Belt, other corn- and soybean-production areas and
the worldwide markets for corn and beans can help you stay on top of
events that can help or hurt prices.
Go to www.cornandsoybeandigest.com
now and stay up-to-the-minute on the timeliest analysis and other
information on corn and soybean production and prices.
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To These Other E-Newsletters from Corn & Soybean Digest
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Thanks for taking time to review this MarketMaxx newsletter. If you have
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