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What's Happening
in MarketMaxx?
August 5, 2008
This graphic isn’t a seismic chart from the recent L.A. earthquake --
but it does illustrate the extremely shaky corn market. After
dropping another 23-plus cents last Friday, December corn had stumbled
to $5.85/bu. – down about two bucks from earlier this summer. Soybeans
were no better off, with the November futures sliding 38 cents Friday to
$13.65/bu., off nearly $3 in less than a month. Prices were off even
more early this week.
Better growing conditions have spurred the market drop. With these price
decreases, lost revenue could be huge. For example, that $2 drop in corn
would see a $300/acre decrease in revenue on a farm that yields 150
bu./acre. Beans at $3 less would shrink revenue by $150/acre if yields
average 50 bu.
That elementary math lesson illustrates the importance of good marketing
when the opportunity is there. By going to the www.MarketMaxx.net page, you can
tune up your marketing skills by reviewing the marketing library and
looking over links on how to write a marketing plan. Leaders in the
MarketMaxx corn and soybean marketing games are still pulling the
trigger at the right time, but are still seeing pressure from market
volatility.
MarketMaxx Leaderboard
Top 10 Leaders – Corn Contest
Howard Wilson, Marlette, MI, $8.68.14
Kent Borstad, Faulkton, SD, $8.30.74
Greg Salac, Summerdale, AL, $8.18.05
Thomas Salac, Robertsdale, AL, $7.80.98
Roy Sangmeister, Manhattan, IL, $7.66.16
Scott Odle, Linden, IN, $7.55.65
Greg Kaiser, Foley, AL, $7.41.27
Corey Brandau, Peotone, IL, $7.34.58
Marcus, Spotts, Nora, IA, $7.31.55
Debbie Hesse, Moses, WA, $7.21.52
Top 10 Leaders – Soybean Contest
Roy Sangmeister, Manhattan, IL, $21.38.2
Corey Brandau, Peotone, IL, $21.18.25
Ed Krelo, Elkville, IL, $17.94.47
Steve Mercer, Kearney, NE, $16.09
Thomas Salac, Robertsdale, AL, $15.95.65
Andy Bensend, Dallas, WI, $15.88.25
Jeremy Svitak, Howells, NE, $15.77.0699
Dave Huitink, Orange, IA, $15.56.14
Greg Salac, Summerdale, AL, $15.46.35
David Hadrick, Faulkton, SD, $15.43
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MarketMaxx contest. Grand prize for the corn contest is a
Gleaner R5 or A5 series combine (up to 100 combine separator hours). The
soybean winner will receive a year's use (not to exceed 250 hours) of
the choice of any PowerMaxx CVT-equipped AGCO RT or DT series tractor.
Second prize for each contest is a complete computer system plus
software from Syngenta Crop Protection. Third prize in the corn contest
is a complete Leica mojoRTK auto-steer system from Leica Geosystems.
Third prize in the soybean contest and fourth prize in the corn contest
is a DICKEY-john mini GAC Plus handheld moisture tester.
Visit www.marketmaxx.net/ and
explore numerous links to help you improve your marketing plan. Look
over economist Kevin McNew’s review of corn and soybean basis trends
to get a glimpse of markets across the country. There are also links to
the Brock Report, CBOT, Chicago Mercantile Exchange, Kansas City Board
of Trade, New York Board of Trade, Minneapolis Grain Exchange and Cash
Grain Bids.
Go to www.marketmaxx.net/ and
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offered by our MarketMaxx sponsors.
Market
Commentary
By Richard Brock, The Brock Report
Cash Convergence Measures Discussed
The Commodity Futures Trading Commission's (CFTC) Agricultural Advisory
Committee last week discussed a host of proposals to address the recent
lack of convergence between agriculture commodity futures and cash
prices. CFTC Commissioner Michael Dunn, who chaired the meeting, says
the problem is dire and a solution is needed urgently.
"The lack of convergence between the future and cash price in some
contracts has shaken the confidence in the futures market to act as a
price discovery mechanism," says Dunn. Two potential solutions widely
discussed by panel members included a proposal to significantly increase
premium charges for grain storage and a proposal for a quicker
"compelled load-out," which would allow a warehouse certificate holder
to force an elevator to deliver physical commodities in as little as 48
hours.
Terry Reinhart, representing Advance Trading, Inc., told the panel that
doubling premium charges would assure convergence. “Every penny that
the premium charge is raised is a penny closer to allowing convergence,"
he says. Dave Lehman, commodity research and product development
director for CME Group, parent company of the Chicago Board of Trade and
the Chicago Mercantile Exchange, says a rate increase for storage is
being tried under advisement by the National Grain and Feed Association
(NGFA), but so far the results have been disappointing.
Storage rates were increased 10% and the wheat delivery instrument was
changed from a warehouse receipt to a shipping certificate, but the July
2008 wheat contract, the first expiration affected by the changes,
exhibited poor convergence, says Lehman.
Tom Coyle, representing NGFA, says a large increase in storage rates
would allow more volatility in spreads and less in basis and would
enhance convergence in surplus years.
However a large storage rate increase would make markets less responsive
to bullish fundamentals, create potential for an opposite imbalance in
tight stock years and would increase the burden on long hedgers, he
says. CME Group is preparing to try to bring about convergence by
implementing new seasonal storage rates and setting up additional
“safety-valve” delivery points.
There is a strong consensus within industry for those two measures, but
the CME Group will continue to seek more feedback on them over the next
30 days.
Bill Would Raise Taxes On Fund Profits
The Brock Report adds that institutional investors such as hedge
and pension funds speculating in commodity markets could face higher tax
rates on their trading profits if a new proposal introduced in the U.S.
Senate gains momentum.
The proposal, offered by Sens. Ron Wyden (D-OR) and Charles Grassley
(R-IA), the ranking member of Senate finance panel, would end lower
capital gains rates on profits and the tax-exempt status for some
institutional investors. Under the draft proposal, anyone directly
purchasing oil, natural gas or products such as diesel fuel, or
indirectly through futures contracts, commodity index funds or other
investment strategies, would be taxed as if they were commercial
commodity traders. That means they would pay ordinary income tax rates
of up to 35% on their profits.
Under current law, investors in oil and gas index funds or other
financial products pay ordinary income tax rates on only 40% of their
returns. The remaining 60% are treated as long-term capital gains on
which they pay a tax of only 15%.
"Essentially the current system is giving speculators tax incentives to
bid up the prices of oil," says Wyden. "We just don't think the tax code
should favor one set of buyers and sellers over another. That is how
markets get distorted." In addition, the proposal would tax pension
funds, some of the biggest investors in oil and gas contracts, at
ordinary income rates. Tax-exempt entities under current law do not face
any taxes on these returns.
"We're not saying you can't speculate," says a Wyden aide. "You're just
not going to get the tax incentive for doing so."
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Additional
Commentary
Watch August 12 Crop Production Report
By Darrel Good, University of Illinois Extension economist
USDA’s August 12 Crop Production report will provide an
important benchmark for assessing 2008 corn and soybean production.
Given the unusual level of uncertainty surrounding production prospects
this year, the report has the potential to produce a sharp price
response.
The report will provide a more precise estimate of planted acres of corn
and soybeans and an updated forecast of acreage harvested for grain. In
June USDA indicated that approximately 9,000 farmers would be
re-interviewed in mid-July to more fully assess actual plantings and
acreage intended for harvest. That information will be incorporated into
the August production forecasts. Like yield forecasts, however, the
acreage forecasts are subject to revision as more information becomes
available later in the season.
Corn and soybean prices have declined sharply since establishing
contract highs in the midst of widespread crop concerns in June and
early July. December 2008 corn futures reached a high just below $8,
declined to a low just above $5.60, and are currently trading near
$5.70. November 2008 soybean futures reached a high just short of
$16.37, but declined to just above $13.00 in early trading Aug. 4.
The decline in prices reflects a number of shifting fundamentals,
including lower crude oil prices, declining ethanol margins, slowing
corn exports, increased wheat feeding, and indications of some reduction
in livestock production. The main contributor to the price decline,
however, was improving crop condition ratings and the resultant larger
production expectations.
Given the large price drop over the past three weeks, the greater risk
may be smaller than expected production forecasts. For both corn and
soybeans, revenue insurance products now provide some important downside
price protection for unpriced production. November 2008 soybean futures
have declined below the spring price guarantee for revenue insurance
products. For corn, December 2008 futures are only about 30 cents above
the spring price guarantee.
If current crop condition ratings persist through the end of the season,
the 2008 U.S. average corn yield would be projected at 155.7 bu./acre
and the U.S. average soybean yield would be projected at 43.7 bu./acre.
Those yields are well above the long term (1960-2007) trend yields for
2008 of 150.7 bu. for corn and 41.4 bu. for soybeans and are likely
above expectations for the Aug, 12 Crop Production report.
More modest yield forecasts are expected due to the variability and
general lateness of crop development. As of July 27, only 7% of the corn
crop in the 18 major corn producing states was reported in the dough
stage, compared to the 19% average in the previous five years. Only 21%
of the soybeans were reported to be setting pods, compared to the 5-year
average of 38%.
USDA indicated in June that the number of fields selected for objective
yield measurements and the sample size for the August Agricultural Yield
Survey would be increased. Still, the lateness of the crops makes it
very difficult to judge yield potential, particularly for soybeans. For
both crops, weather conditions over the next two months will be
extremely important for determining yield potential. A lot of yield
uncertainty will persist after the August report.
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Other News That Can
Impact Corn And Soybean Prices
No CRP Early Out
Secretary of Agriculture Ed Schafer says USDA won’t allow “early
out” for Conservation Reserve Program (CRP) contracts without penalty.
“After carefully considering recent crop reports and weather
conditions, the price trends we are seeing in grain markets and the
likelihood of increasing land for crop production, we have decided not
to allow the penalty-free release of CRP land at this time,” says
Schafer.
“The markets have been reacting favorably to the good growing weather
we have been experiencing in recent weeks and encouraging reports on
crop conditions. Cash prices for corn are down 25% -- and for soybeans,
14% from their record highs last month.”
Schafer says that even with the damage and delays in planting caused by
the floods, “this year's corn crop is on track to be the second
largest on record with an anticipated harvest of almost 79 million
acres.”
He says the U.S. will have 1.1 million CRP acres scheduled to expire on
Sept. 30 of this year, and that number jumps to 3.8 million acres on
Sept. 30, 2009 and then 4.4 million acres in September of 2010. “So,
large blocks of land will be available for other uses if land owners
chose to pursue them,” says Schafer.
WTO Stalls Again, Even After U.S. And EU Offer To Cut Farm Subsidies
A Geneva meeting aimed at breaking through ever-stalled World Trade
Organization (WTO) talks failed last week after developing countries
shunned offers from the U.S. and European Union to cut farm subsidies.
The U.S. offered to reduce trade-distorting farm subsidies from $48.2
billion to $15 billion per year, but developing countries criticized the
proposal for not going far enough.
U.S. Trade Representative Susan C.
Schwab made it clear the offer is conditional upon U.S. trading partners
increasing access for U.S. goods and services in their markets, reports
the Washington Times. "This is a major move, taken in good faith
with an expectation that others will reciprocate and step forward with
improved offers in market access," says Schwab.
"My immediate response is it doesn't pass the 'laugh test,'" says a
senior trade negotiator from India. Negotiators from Brazil and other
developing countries also ridiculed the proposal. The EU offered to
reduce its tariffs on farm products by 60%, six percentage points more
than its earlier pledge. Developing countries reacted skeptically to
that proposal, too.
Reuters reports that the marathon talks on a new wave of trade
liberalization collapsed after nine days of intense but ultimately
fruitless negotiations. Edward Gresser, director of the Trade and Global
Markets Project, Progressive Policy Institute, Washington, D.C., says
the time for developing countries to strike a deal over agriculture was
now, not later.
“This year's high prices created a window for lower rich-country
subsidies and tariffs that may not open again, and it's unfortunate that
the big developing countries didn't take the opportunity," he says.
"This fourth collapse after Cancun, Hong Kong and Potsdam suggests that
the WTO members may need to rethink the agenda rather than try again
with the same program. In particular, they might move agricultural
reform out of the center for a few years, and focus instead on big newly
emerging industries -- energy/environmental industries and medical
equipment for example -- where attitudes are less entrenched and
emotional."
USB Surveys Says Consumers Back Farmers And Biodiesel
A recent nationwide survey conducted by the United Soybean Board (USB)
and soybean checkoff revealed that U.S. consumers strongly back U.S.
soybean farmers and biodiesel.
The “National Agriculture Image Survey” indicated 82% of consumers
agree foreign oil-producing countries and the high cost of fuel
impacting farming and processing, packaging, storing and shipping food
are to blame for food price increases -- not U.S. farmers.
Other key findings of the USB survey show:
• 77% of consumers favor the use of biodiesel as a source of energy
that can meet our needs in the next 5-10 years.
• 74% were more favorable toward biodiesel after hearing it benefits
the environment.
• 70% were more favorable toward biodiesel after hearing it’s a new
green industry that creates jobs.
“In a time when we all are feeling the pinch of high energy and food
costs, it’s encouraging to know the American public realizes the
benefits of soy biodiesel as a clean-burning, renewable, homegrown
fuel,” says USB Vice Chairman and Nebraska soybean farmer Chuck Myers.
“The soybean checkoff believes it’s important that consumers
understand the rising cost of petroleum represents the major reason for
higher consumer food prices and that biodiesel represents a viable,
useful and beneficial alternative to imported oil.”
Myers says that many consumers may not understand how soybean prices
affect food costs. “Demand for soy biodiesel has very little impact on
the price of food,” states Myers. “A soybean consists mostly of
protein-rich meal, and 98% of that meal is used to feed animals that
produce food such as poultry, pork, beef and fish.”
“A soybean checkoff study found that demand for biodiesel made from
soybean oil increases the supply of soybean meal, which will be largely
used to produce more food — not less,” Myers explains.
The study also looked at consumers’ perceptions of farmers, farm
families and agribusiness. The survey results show 89% of consumers
expressed a favorable image of U.S. farmers. Only 7% responded
unfavorably and the other 4% had no opinion.
When asked if farmers are good citizens of their community, 82% of
participants said “yes,” while 18% thought that farmers don’t have
a stake in their communities. “They are the backbone of the
country,” says one survey respondent. “I thought farming was easy
until I met and talked with some farmers,” says another.
Study Looks At Impact Of Ethanol On Food
The production of ethanol from corn has had minimal impact on consumer
food prices while reducing fuel costs to consumers across the country,
according to a new study released July 31.
U.S. Sen. Ben Nelson (D-NE), Chairman of the Ethanol Across America
education campaign, hailed a new issue brief titled, The Impact of
Ethanol Production on Food, Feed, and Fuel, as a calm voice in a
debate that has become confused due to misinformation.
"America's farmers are the most efficient and productive in the world,"
he says. "While there is new demand for corn and other agricultural
products resulting from our effort to produce biofuels, we are seeing
increased yields and a likely leveling of prices. We are also working
hard to diversify our biofuel production by utilizing new feedstocks
that range from specialty energy crops to waste materials."
The issue brief, which is a compilation of existing data and research,
notes that while corn prices have indeed nearly doubled in the past
year, according to the U.S. Commerce Department's Consumer Price Index,
food costs have increased within their historical annual average of
2.9%. However, fuel prices have risen 82% since 2006 and according to
USDA, have had a much greater impact on food prices due to higher costs
of bringing products to market and food processing.
"Ethanol demand has accounted for 20% of the increase in demand for
grain, with considerably less when the distillers grains are returned to
the feed supply,” says Douglas Durante, Director of the “Ethanol
Across America” campaign. “The other 80% is due to global demand
from other countries that are increasing their quality of life and diet.
More people wanting more meat and dairy products will continue to drive
the market much more than biofuels."
As the issues brief documents, even with the new demand for ethanol, the
U.S. is exporting more than at any time in its history while meeting all
other feed and food needs. The issue brief also makes the point that
ethanol is clearly helping consumers at the gas pump. According to the
Nebraska Ethanol Board, fuel prices in Nebraska are among the highest in
the nation, yet ethanol blends ranging from E10 to E85 are significantly
less expensive than gasoline.
Recent studies by commodity analysts Merrill Lynch concluded that all
gasoline prices across the country were 15% lower than they would be
without ethanol's role of expanding supply.
"I think we are losing sight of the big picture and our pressing needs
of producing our own energy, reducing greenhouse gases, creating jobs
across the U.S., and revitalizing rural America," says Nelson. "Through
the ethanol program, we are not only producing ethanol and animal
protein from corn, but the same process can provide food fit for human
consumption as well. Corn ethanol is one step towards energy
independence and it is a step that benefits all consumers. As we move
towards a wider range of non-petroleum feedstocks, these benefits will
be even greater."
Go to www.EthanolAcrossAmerica.net
for more information.
Harkin, Lugar Introduce Ethanol Pipeline Measure
Sen. Tom Harkin (D-IA) and Richard Lugar (R-IN) have introduced
legislation aimed at addressing one of the valid criticisms of ethanol
production -- the lack of an economical way to move the renewable fuel
to major markets.
Farm Press reports that legislation authored by Harkin, chairman
of the Senate Agriculture Committee, and Lugar, ranking member on the
Foreign Affairs Committee, would give pipeline owners the same tax
benefits they receive for moving petroleum products for transferring
ethanol to other parts of the country. “While the Midwest and Plain
states produce the most renewable fuels, the country is lacking the
infrastructure to most efficiently transport these liquid fuels to
population centers in the East and elsewhere,” the senators say.
“While the most efficient mode for transporting liquid biofuels is by
pipeline, a provision in the tax code is effectively blocking Publicly
Traded Partnerships (PTP) that build and operate most liquid pipelines
from moving forward.”
Under current law, those publicly traded partnerships are required to
earn 90% of their income from the exploration, transportation, storage,
or marketing of natural resources, including oil, gas, and coal, but not
renewable fuels. The Harkin-Lugar bill would change the tax code to
state that PTPs can earn “qualified” income from the transport,
storage, or marketing of any renewable liquid fuel approved by the
Environmental Protection Agency.
“We must seize control of our energy future and shift rapidly and
robustly to clean, home-grown sources of energy, including ethanol and
other renewable fuels,” says Harkin. “Our bill makes a simple change
to the tax code that meets the demands and realities of the 21st century
energy marketplace, removing barriers so that biofuels producers in the
Midwest and elsewhere will have an efficient, inexpensive way to
transport these renewable fuels to the market. And it will continue to
provide relief to consumers getting hit hard with rising fuel costs.”
“We must explore every option for reducing our dependence on foreign
oil,” says Lugar. “Overcoming problems in moving ethanol through
pipelines, as Brazil has done, is important in developing the full
promise of America’s renewable fuels.”
EU Backs Away From Biofuels As Food Prices Soar
Soyatech reports that European Union ministers for energy and
the environment have revised their targets for renewable energy in the
face of abundant new evidence that the increased production of
“agrofuels” is partly responsible for the worldwide increase in food
prices.
The EU has had a declared objective of increasing the share of agrofuels
used in transport by 10% by 2010. This objective was announced during
the spring of 2007, as part of the European Commission plan to reduce
greenhouse gas emissions by 20% by 2020. The European Commission is the
executive arm of the EU.
In a declaration to the press after the meeting near Paris, French
minister for the environment and energy Jean-Louis Borloo said agrofuels
"are only one alternative, among others."
A World Bank paper said the production of agrofuels is responsible for
75% of the increase in the price of food. The confidential report leaked
to the media said higher energy and fertilizer prices accounted for only
15% of the increase. The figure contradicts claims by the U.S.
government that agrofuels have contributed less than 3% to food price
increases.
Soy Big In Aquaculture
The U.S. Soybean Export Council’s Soy in Aquaculture Program says soy
use in fish diets is estimated at 300 million bushels annually. During a
recent visit to University of New Hampshire’s Cooperative Institute
for New England Mariculture and Fisheries research facilities and
offshore ocean cage program at Portsmouth, N.H., council stakeholders
witnessed offshore tests of improved Ocean Cage Aquaculture Technology
cages (OCAT).
Participants discussed additional cooperative studies to further improve
and expand OCAT applications. The council, through the Soy In
Aquaculture program, increases soybean meal demand for soybean farmers.
With the worldwide population expected to grow by 2 billion people by
2025 and continued emphasis on the nutritional benefits of consuming
fish, the aquaculture industry needs a protein source that is renewable
and facilitates profitability. Feeding demonstrations such as these
prove that soybean products provide a powerful solution to those
challenges.
China's Edible Oil Imports Up 11%
As the Olympics get prepared to start in China, there are also cheers
for the additional use of edible vegetable oil in the huge country.
Soyatech reports that China imported more edible vegetable oil at
higher cost in the first five months of this year, as demand remained
strong at home and prices were buoyed up by short supplies
worldwide.
Between January and May, China imported 3.57 million tons of edible
vegetable oil, a year-on-year increase of 11.1%. The arrivals were
valued at $3.98 billion, up 94.7%, the General Administration of Customs
says.
The import price averaged $1,114/ ton, up 75.2%.
The
total imports included 2.07 million tons of palm oil, up 23.4%, and 1.13
million tons of soybean oil, up 7.7%. The two combined to make up 89.6%
of the total.
Cattle On Feed Way Down
July’s USDA Cattle on Feed report shows a downward trend in virtually
all phases of cattle feeding. Some of the highlights of the report
included: Nebraska placements, down 22%; Texas placements down 18%,
Colorado placements down 47%, Oklahoma marketings down 19%; and Canadian
cattle on feed lowest since 2004.
Total on feed showed 10.295 million in the nation’s feedyards, 4%
below this time last year. Placements were at 1.513 million, down 9%;
and marketings were at 1.973 million, down 8%.
Agribusiness Job Web
Site
Looking for good agribusiness employees or if you’re
ready for a move to a new position, then go to www.agribizjobs.com/home/.
Penton Media’s Ag Group, of which Corn & Soybean Digest is a
member, has a targeted online career center. Agribizjobs.com offers
industry employers a growing, qualified audience of ag professionals and
industry job-seekers with agribusiness-specific categorized job
listings. It’s a joint effort by Corn & Soybean Digest and its
sister publications, BEEF, Farm Industry News, Farm Press, Hay &
Forage Grower and National Hog Farmer.
At www.agribizjobs.com/home/
employers can view complete but anonymous resumes for free, and pay only
to connect with a job-seeker. Job-seekers can post resumes in
ag-specific employment categories and sign up to receive e-mail alerts
when new positions are posted that match their search criteria. The
site’s Anonymous Resume Bank enables both active and passive
job-seekers to list their experience and qualifications in a protected
environment, allowing them to stay connected to the employment market
while maintaining full control of their confidential information.
Updated Marketing,
Biofuels And Other News At Corn & Soybean Digest Web Site
Follow the latest analysis of corn and soybean futures
prices and market trends at cornandsoybeandigest.com/ --
our flagship Web site. There’s information on the new farm bill
regulations, insect, weed and disease control, market commentary and
lots of other news you can use to better manage your farm.
If your latest issue of Corn & Soybean Digest magazine isn’t
handy, the site’s magazine archives section enables you to access it
and past issues to revisit subjects that can impact your corn and
soybean production and marketing. The site's news from across the Corn
Belt, other corn- and soybean-production areas and the worldwide markets
for corn and beans can help you stay on top of events that can help or
hurt prices.
Go to cornandsoybeandigest.com/
now and stay up-to-the-minute on the timeliest analysis and other
information on corn and soybean production and prices.
Subscribe
To These Other E-Newsletters from Corn & Soybean Digest
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Soybean Digest. They include F.I.R.S.T. Harvest Reports
(seasonal), Corn E-Digest, Soybean E-Digest and Crop News Weekly.
Check them out at subscribe.cornandsoybeandigest.com/subscribe.cfm?tc=NLSUB.
Thanks for taking time to review this MarketMaxx newsletter. If you have
comments or questions about MarketMaxx, e-mail your editor, Larry
Stalcup, at beef2lar@suddenlink.net.
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