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$10 Beans Still A
Possibility
Soybean prices are currently being buffeted by the
winds of change, and nobody knows where or when the bottom will hit or
how much prices will rebound during the 2008-2009 marketing year. Still,
a recovery in soybean prices is expected, says Darrel Good, University
of Illinois (U of I) Extension marketing specialist
“Grain prices will depend a lot on which way the financial and energy
markets go, but sometime over the next few months there should be a
recovery in these markets and in ag markets,” says Good. “Seeing
cash beans back at $10/bu. or above is still a possibility.”
That’s about $1.40/bu. above the current price, points out Good. “In
general, this is the time to be postponing buying inputs and selling
grain,” he says. “In the short term, I think we’ll see some
softening of input prices. In the long term, I think we’ll see higher
crop prices.”
Farmers who have adequate bin space might consider holding their grain a
few more months before selling, advises Good. The good news for U.S.
soybean growers right now is that export sales are staying very robust,
he adds. “China is continuing to be a major buyer,” says Good.
Commitments for U.S. soybeans are up 9% over last year, points out Chris
Hurt, Purdue University Extension economist. “The strongest piece of
fundamentals for soybean prices is that exports continue to look good
early on,” he says. “We’re only seven weeks into this marketing
year, but already the world has been aggressive in buying soybeans. The
Chinese economy may be weakening, but it’s still sitting on $2
trillion in cash.”
With the main U.S soybean buyer still poised to buy more, Hurt also
predicts an eventual recovery in soybean prices. “There is a
possibility of cash prices returning to the $9.50-10/bu. range in the
Midwest,” he says. “We’ll probably have some postharvest recovery,
but it may be into late winter or early spring before we see any major
recovery.”
A major recovery would depend on the world economy stabilizing,
minimal South American production increases and competitive prospects
for U.S. soybean acres in 2009, notes Hurt. “There’s still a lot of
uncertainty, and that may favor diversified pricing over the next eight
to nine months,” he adds. “A diversified pricing strategy (multiple
pricing points throughout the marketing year) will provide a near
average price, and the average U.S. farmer is going to easily survive
this downturn.”
While growers aren’t likely to see $11-13/bu. soybeans for the next
year or so, “$9.50-10/bu. soybeans are still a distinct
possibility,” says Hurt. He adds that farmers might consider more
grain sales in late winter and early spring than this fall and early
winter in anticipation of higher prices later in the marketing year.
“On the other hand, you never know what the market is going to do,”
says Hurt. “I sold some soybeans right out of the field early this
fall for $11/bu., and that price looks golden right now. The main thing
is just to market your grain gradually over time to obtain a
near-average price that will allow your business to survive.”
To read more about the current soybean price outlook, visit the
following U of I Web link: www.aces.uiuc.edu/news.
By John Pocock
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Cast Your Vote For U.S.
President
Corn & Soybean Digest is interested in who you
support for president of the United States of America. To find out,
we’ve set up a Web link where you can indicate your preference for
either Barack Obama or John McCain.
To cast your ballot in our informal poll and/or view our poll results,
click here: cornandsoybeandigest.com/soybeans/poll/.
By the way, your vote is anonymous.
The real election is Nov. 4 – just five days away.
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Hard Freeze May Have Sliced Soybean
Yields
Normally, a hard freeze in late October or early
November in Kansas comes too late to hurt row-crop yields. Yet, this
October a significant acreage of soybeans may not have reached maturity
at the time of the first hard freeze, says Kraig Roozeboom, Kansas State
University (K-State) Research and Extension crop production specialist.
This year’s lack of maturity “is due to a combination of late
planting and relatively cool summer and fall temperatures,” says
Rozeboom. He adds that soybean leaves are not damaged until air
temperatures reach 26° F, but if leaves are damaged close to the stem,
the stage of grain development will determine the amount of yield loss.
At full seed development, when the seed fills the pod cavities and
leaves begin to turn yellow, a hard freeze can cause an estimated 24-37%
yield loss. At the stage of beginning maturity (R7), where one pod on
the main stem has reached mature color and half the leaves are yellow,
yield losses may range from zero to 11%. By the time of full maturity,
when 95% of pods are mature color and the leaves have dropped, a hard
freeze will cause no yield loss.
More information on expected yield losses from freezes at different
levels of heat unit accumulation and information about harvest options
after a freeze can be found in the Extension publication MF-2234 “Fall
Freeze Damage in Summer Grain Crops” at county and district K-State
Research and Extension offices and online in a PDF file at: www.oznet.ksu.edu/library.
Source: Kansas State University Research and
Extension
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Soybean Producers Face Mixed Bag Of Late
Harvest Issues
The rain and winds of the past week, mixed with a few
snowflakes, continue the crazy weather patterns that Iowa’s grain
producers have battled this growing season. With the majority of the
corn and a good deal of soybeans still in the field, producers are
facing several grain-quality issues as they get back into the fields.
In eastern and southwestern Iowa, a good share of the soybean crop is
still in the field, says Charles Hurburgh, Iowa State University
Extension agricultural engineering specialist. “These beans will not
dry anymore,” he says. “In fact, they will go up in moisture to
18-20% if left in the field. Plus, we are beginning the freeze/thaw
cycle, which will split the pods and drop the grain.”
Hurburgh recommends that producers get the soybeans harvested as quickly
as possible and dry any beans above 15% moisture. “It isn’t very
often that we need to dry beans, but it may be necessary for those beans
that are still standing,” he says. “Typical dryers, either high- or
low-temperature, can be used effectively. Soybeans respond quickly, so
moisture monitoring will be needed to avoid overshooting market
targets.”
If Hurburgh has one bit of advice for grain producers right now, it
would be to “run wide open and don’t lift,” because the field
drydown period and any improvements to quality have ended. He recommends
getting the corn and beans out of field – then managing the moisture.
To read more of this article, click here: www.extension.iastate.edu/news.
Source: Iowa State University
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Power in the Pod™. More beans per pod mean more bushels
for more profit potential per acre.
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RoundupReady2Yield.com
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USDA
Corrects October Crop Acreage Estimates
USDA adjusted its official October acreage and
production estimates on Tuesday for six field crops after discovering
discrepancies in a Farm Service Agency (FSA) database of
producer-reported crop acreage used by the National Agricultural
Statistics Service (NASS).
Compared to the Oct. 10 release, the corrected Crop Production report
reflects 1.2% fewer planted acres for corn and 1.4% fewer planted acres
for soybeans. The report also reflects a 2.5% increase in planted acres
for sorghum.
Even with the reduced acreage estimates, the 2008 corn crop is still on
track to be the second largest on record, while the soybean crop will be
the fourth largest.
To read the corrected USDA crop report, click here: www.usda.gov/nass/PUBS/TODAYRPT.
To read more from a USDA press release about the corrected report, click
here: www.usda.gov/wps.
Source: USDA
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Resources
Available To Better Manage High Input Costs
With input costs for the 2009 crop production season
projected to be two to three times higher than in recent years,
University of Nebraska-Lincoln (UNL) Extension has resources to help.
UNL is launching a new Web page, “Surviving High Input Costs in Crop
Production” at: cropwatch.unl.edu.
This web page will offer Nebraska crop producers timely information to
curb increasing costs and improve profit margins.
UNL Extension specialists and educators related to crop production will
post recommendations that will help producers take measures to reduce
input costs. These will start to go online this week.
In addition, these topics will be discussed at UNL Extension crop
meetings in the next few months across Nebraska.
Source: University of Nebraska-Lincoln
Extension
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Good News On
Flex Leases
All flexible cash leases for land rental contracts
will now be considered cash leases by FSA for farm program payment
determination during the 2009-2012 crop years, according to preliminary
revised regulations announced recently by USDA. The revised regulations
state that any rental contract with a guarantee plus a bonus will be
considered a cash lease, regardless of how that bonus is set up or
structured.
Previously, FSA considered any flexible cash lease that was based on
actual farm yields, prices or revenues to be a share rent lease. That
meant that eligible landlords had to receive a portion of all farm
program payments. This requirement was restricting the use of flexible
leases in many situations, even though current crop economics strongly
favor the use of flexible leases for the 2009 crop year and beyond. Farm
operators and landlords should continue to use caution with 2009 land
rental contracts that involve flexible cash leases, until USDA releases
the final regulations on flexible leases in a month or so.
To read a related article about USDA regulations on flex leases from
Iowa State University, click here: www.calt.iastate.edu/cashlease.html.
To read more articles from Kent Thiesse, click here: cornandsoybeandigest.com/kentthiesse/.
By Kent Thiesse, V.P., MinnStar Bank
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Web Site Launched To Help Select Financial
Professionals
If you need help to develop strategies for reaching
your financial goals but don't know where to turn, a newly launched
University of Illinois (U of I) Extension Web site might help.
Developed by Karen Chan and Kathy Sweedler, both U of I Extension
consumer and family economics educators, the Web site covers a number of
topics associated with seeking professional help for financial planning.
One area focuses on the questions one should ask in choosing a financial
professional and a checklist to use when interviewing them. Another area
includes a guide to financial professional titles and a definition of
terms to help you understand the various types of accreditations used in
the field.
The new Web site, “Choosing a Financial Professional,” is available
at: web.extension.uiuc.edu/financialpro.
Source: University of Illinois
Extension
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Minneapolis
Grain Exchange To Close Trading Pits Dec. 19
After a long history of futures and options open
outcry trading, MGEX (Minneapolis Grain Exchange or Exchange) is closing
its trading pits effective Dec. 19, 2008. The decision to make the
transition to exclusively electronic trading was unanimously approved by
the MGEX board of directors and is pending MGEX ownership approval.
“The trading community is successfully migrating to the electronic
platform and we are focused on providing greater MGEX operating
efficiencies for our member owners,” says Mark Bagan, president and
CEO, MGEX. “The Exchange is establishing our position in the
derivatives industry while ensuring preservation of our internationally
respected cash market.”
The Exchange’s electronic trading operations on the CME Globex
electronic trading platform will remain unchanged. MGEX will continue to
host the cash market from a newly remodeled location in the historic
Grain Exchange Building. This space will include a new member lounge as
well as desk space for electronic trade execution.
This decision comes after an exhaustive study done by MGEX management at
the request of the board of directors. Over the past 12 months there has
been a dramatic trend away from open outcry and towards electronic
trading witnessed by all U.S. exchanges, including MGEX.
MGEX, established in 1881, is the only market for Hard Red Spring Wheat,
National Corn Index (NCI), National Soybean Index (NSI), Hard Red Winter
Wheat Index (HRWI), Hard Red Spring Wheat Index (HRSI) and Soft Red
Winter Wheat Index (SRWI) futures and options. To learn more about the
MGEX visit its Web site at www.mgex.com.
Source: Minneapolis Grain Exchange
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Grant Funds
Available For Biodiesel Blending In Minnesota
The Minnesota Department of Agriculture (MDA) is
accepting grant proposals that will enhance the state’s biodiesel
industry. A total of $300,000 in funds is available to the owners of
facilities that supply petroleum products to customers who sell, use or
transport fuel in the state of Minnesota.
The facilities should be located on or near a petroleum terminal and
have an infrastructure that can be designed to blend cold-weather
biodiesel with conventional diesel fuels. Cold-weather biodiesel is a
high-quality biodiesel blend that can be used successfully year-round,
even in the coldest climates.
Grant funds may be used to offset the cost of necessary infrastructure
equipment, including, but not limited to, tank, pipe, valves, meters,
pumps and heating equipment, plus the cost of engineering, fabrication
and installation. Proposals must include a description and cost of the
proposed blending facilities and assurances that the facility will
provide biodiesel-blended fuels to the Minnesota diesel fuel market in
cold weather conditions.
For a copy of proposal requirements, contact Christina Connelly at
651-201-6220 or Christina.Connelly@state.mn.us.
Questions can be directed to Connelly through Friday, Nov. 14, 2008. Or
visit the MDA Web site at www.mda.state.mn.us and click on
Grants, Loans & Financing.
Proposals must be received by Christina Connelly at 625 North Robert
Street, St. Paul, MN 55155 no later than 4:00 p.m. central standard time
on Friday, Nov. 28, 2008.
Source: Minnesota Department of
Agriculture
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$2 Million For Illinois Biofuels
Research
The National Science Foundation (NSF) announced this
month that it is funding a new research effort at the University of
Illinois aimed at understanding how – and whether it is possible –
to build sustainable infrastructure to support the emerging biofuels
industry.
The $2 million grant is one of six NSF awards this year to institutions
engaged in engineering infrastructure research. The Illinois team will
tackle the engineering, social, environmental and economic constraints
of developing and maintaining critical engineering infrastructure so as
to sustainably support the emerging bio-economy.
To read more about the biofuels grant, click here: news.illinois.edu/news.
Source: University of Illinois
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Pennsylvania Offers $5.3 Million In Homegrown
Biofuels Grant Program
Applications are now available for a Pennsylvania
program designed to accelerate the production and use of homegrown
biofuels and reduce the state’s dependence on foreign oil.
In July, Gov. Edward Rendell signed legislation to encourage the
development of homegrown biofuels by establishing new requirements that
every gallon of gasoline and diesel fuel contain a percentage of ethanol
and biodiesel. The Biofuel Development And In-State Production Act
requires that every gallon of gasoline and diesel fuel sold will include
increasing percentages of biofuels – a maximum of 20% biodiesel for
diesel fuel and 10% ethanol for gasoline – as in-state production
reaches certain benchmarks.
Under the act, the Alternative Fuels Incentive Grant Program will award
75¢/gal. to eligible applicants, with no single producer to receive
more than $1.9 million annually. Up to $5.3 million annually will be
available under the program through fiscal year 2010-2011. To be
eligible for the monthly alternative fuels production incentives,
applicants must produce and sell 25,000 gallons or more per month of
qualified biomass-based diesel in Pennsylvania for transportation or
home heating purposes.
Production incentive applications are now available from the
Pennsylvania Department of Environmental Protection (DEP) and will
initially cover reimbursement requests for biodiesel produced and sold
in Pennsylvania from July 1 through Sept. 30. Applications must be
postmarked or received by Nov. 14.
For more information or to download applications, guidance materials and
instructions, visit www.depweb.state.pa.us,
keyword: Alternative Fuels, or contact DEP’s Office of Energy and
Technology Deployment at 717-705-3561 or by e-mail at epafiginfo@state.pa.us.
Source: Commonwealth of Pennsylvania
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Ohio
Workshop Teaches How To Keep Deer From Eating Your
Profits
A new deer exclusion fence surrounding the field crop
plots and fruit and vegetable research trials at OSU South Centers at
Piketon will be at the center of a workshop to educate producers and
landowners about the best solutions for protecting their land and crops
from deer damage.
“Are Deer Eating Your Profits?” will be held Nov. 7 from 10 a.m.
until 3:30 p.m. at OSU South Centers at Piketon, 1864 Shyville Rd.,
Piketon. Registration is $30 and includes handouts and lunch. Deadline
to register is Nov. 4.
Specialists in deer biology and control will provide insight on how to
exclude deer from land, crop fields, commercial fruit and vegetable
fields and gardens. Visitors will also learn about options available for
deer deterrents on both a large and small scale. Deer fence displays and
a tour of the new fence will also be included in the workshop.
For more information, or to register, contact Julie Strawser at
740-289-2071, or 800-297-2072 (Ohio only) ext. 223, or e-mail strawser.35@osu.edu.
Source: Ohio State University
Extension
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Flimsy Link
Between Farm Subsidies And Sweets Consumption
An Iowa State University analysis fails to support
claims that farm subsidies for agricultural commodity production are
directly implicated in the growing obesity problem in the U.S. and the
increased consumption of sweetened foods and drinks.
Two Iowa State economists, working with University of California-Davis
researchers on the project, found that the current link between these
subsidies and intake of sweeteners is tenuous at best, although a
stronger link could be found in earlier years. Eliminating corn
subsidies would do little to decrease the consumption of sweeteners in
foods, according to the analysis by John Beghin and Helen Jensen, Iowa
State economics professors.
Beginning in the 1970s, companies began substituting cheaper
high-fructose corn syrup for the more expensive sugars made from cane
and beet sugar, and farm subsidies did make the substitute much more
competitive. Critics have charged that the cheap corn-based sweetener
used in many snack foods and beverages has contributed to high and
rising U.S. rates of obesity and diabetes.
The Beghin and Jensen study found that countries with no comparable
commodity programs had increasing rates of sweetener consumption similar
to those in the U.S. Also, the farm share of the value of sweetened food
items is so small, at roughly 5% or less, that the effect of sweetener
ingredient prices has become much less important over time.
A paper describing the study and its findings, “Farm Policies And
Added Sugars In U.S. Diets,” is available at www.card.iastate.edu/research/fnp/.
Source: Iowa State University
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Soy Isoflavones Could Contribute To Healthy
Ability To Relax
A new study examines how a certain naturally occurring
component of soy may enhance the function of arteries in stroke
patients, and help all Americans keep heart-healthy. According to the
Center for Disease Control and Prevention, heart disease is the
nation’s No. 1 killer while stroke is the third leading cause of death
in the United States.
The study, published recently in the European Heart Journal by
researchers at the University of Hong Kong, found a diet rich in
soybeans and soy isoflavones boosts artery health. Isoflavones are
natural compounds found in soy that, although different from the hormone
estrogen, do exert a mild estrogen-like effect under certain conditions.
The researchers recruited 102 stroke patients, randomly assigned daily
intake of 80 mg soy isoflavones supplements to 50 patients and gave a
placebo to the others for 12 weeks. The study found that the
participants who consumed soy isoflavones had a significant increase in
flow-mediated dilation, the measure of a blood vessel’s healthy
ability to relax.
The dilation of arterial blood vessels leads to a decrease in blood
pressure and reduces the risk of stroke. The researchers note, “These
findings may have important implications for the use of isoflavones for
secondary prevention in patients with cardiovascular disease, on top of
conventional treatments.”
A few simple changes in diet could help most Americans take in a similar
amount of soy isoflavones that showed a benefit to patients in the
study, points out Joy Blakeslee, RD, who suggests a few options:
- Tofu: 1/2 cup serving contains 25mg isoflavones
- Low-fat soy flour: 1/4 cup serving contains 50 mg isoflavones
- Fortified soymilk: 1 cup serving contains 43mg isoflavones
- Roasted soy nuts: 1/4 cup serving contains 78 mg isoflavones
- Canned soybeans: 1/2 cup serving yields between 40 and 78 mg
isoflavones (depending on whether you pick green, black or yellow
soybeans)
Blakeslee emphasizes, “Soyfoods are the only significant dietary
source of isoflavones.”
Soy isoflavones offer other potential benefits beyond heart health for
warding off some effects of aging. The largest and longest trial to date
found soy isoflavones reduce hot flashes by 50%. Other research suggests
that soy isoflavones reduce bone breakdown, increase bone formation and
increase bone mineral density in postmenopausal women. Finally, research
suggests soy isoflavones may help prevent some types of cancer.
For more information on the health benefits of soy and simple recipe
suggestions to help add soy to your diet, please visit www.soyconnection.com.
Source: United Soybean Board
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A Note From The Soybean E-Digest
Editor: Eat Soy Nuts And Relax!
The preceding article on the relationship between an
increase in soy food consumption and an increase in your blood
vessels’ ability to relax has inspired me to begin eating at least a
¼ cup of roasted soy nuts (my favorite soy food) each day.
Maybe it’s the upcoming election, the recent turmoil in the financial
markets or just the long drawn-out harvest season, but I suspect many of
you, like myself, have found it a bit difficult to relax of late. And,
if we’re not relaxed, how can we expect our blood vessels to be
pliable enough to stave off stroke and heart attacks?
If you’ve already made a commitment to consuming soy foods on a daily
basis and have noticed an increased ability to relax or any other health
benefit, I’d like to hear from you.
When writing, please let me know your name, where you farm or work, what
health benefit you’ve seen through increased soy food consumption and
whether or not I have permission to use your comment in a future
Soybean E-Digest newsletter. You can contact me (John Pocock) at:
john.pocock@penton.com.
As always, you’re welcome to write to me if you have a comment on any
other topic related to soybean production, or if you have concerns or
questions about this issue. I look forward to hearing from you. Relax,
stay safe, thanks for your readership – and farm on!
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