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  April 14, 2009 A Penton Media Property Vol. 1, No. 6  
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Wheat Forecast At $6.80-$6.90
By Larry Stalcup
 USDA's forecast for 2008-2009 wheat prices is from $6.80 to $6.90/bu. following last week’s World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report. Melvin Brees, University of Missouri Extension agricultural economist, says most analysts consider the report neutral for wheat and bullish for corn and soybeans.

In his analysis of the report on Friday, Brees says USDA’s forecast for increased feed use of wheat and a slight increase in seed use resulted in a reduction in projected ending wheat stocks from 712 million bushels in March to 696 million bushels in April.

“This was near the average prereport trade expectation,” says Brees. “However, world wheat carryover continues to increase. In spite of small downward adjustments to total world production, increases in beginning stocks and reductions to expected use more than offset production changes and world wheat carryover is expected to be 158.10 million metric tons (mmt). This is up 2.25 mmt from the previous estimate.”

For more on this story, click here
Wheat Prices Getting Closer To Breakeven
By Kim Anderson, Oklahoma State University grain marketing economist
 Most producers have calculated the per-acre cost to produce 2009 wheat. Producers with 35-bu./acre average wheat yields have variable cost estimates between $140 and $220/acre (the $220 cost included $40 cash rent). Without a land charge, the average cost is about $180.

The range of breakeven prices would be between $4 and $6.29/bu. The average breakeven price, before including a land charge, is about $5.14. Per-acre costs may be known, but per-acre yields are not. During the last three years, some land that averages 35 bu. produced 0 bu./acre in 2007 and 44 bu. in 2008. About 70% of the time, yield is expected to vary about 20% or be between 28 and 42 bu. for 35-bu./acre average land.

With the exiting drought conditions in most of the hard red winter wheat area, per-acre yields are expected to be below average. Breakeven prices will not be between $4 and $6.20. At the low yield (28 bu.), breakeven prices would be between $5 and $7.86.

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Seeding Rates For Hard Red Spring Wheat
By Jochum Wiersma, University of Minnesota Extension small grains specialist
Each year questions arise about the correct seeding rate for hard red spring wheat. “Is a bushel and a peck enough?” is a question I have been asked more than once. Research in the mid-1990s demonstrated that, on average, an initial stand of 30-32 plants/sq. ft. maximized grain yield. As planting was delayed past the optimum, the initial stand needed to be increased by 1 plant/sq. ft. for each week of delay to maximize grain yield. With this number in mind and assuming a stand loss between 10-15% one can calculate a seeding rate using the following formula.

  • Seeding rate equals: (desired stand)/(1 – expected stand loss) divided by (seed count x percent germination).

    Repeated research, however, has demonstrated that the optimum seeding rates differ for individual varieties. To determine this optimum seeding rate the variety in question is tested at a wide range of seeding rates. The seeding rate for maximum grain yield can be derived from the parabolic response curve of grain yield vs. number of plants per unit area, which increases quickly to a maximum and slowly decreases at higher plant densities.

    For more on this story, click here
    • Senators Introduce Bipartisan Legislation To Promote Biofuel Pipelines
    U.S. Sens. Tom Harkin (D-IA), John Thune (R-SD) and Tim Johnson (D-SD) have introduced legislation that authorizes loan guarantees for the construction of renewable fuel pipeline projects.

    The senators say that while the Midwest and plains states produce the majority of the biofuels in the U.S., the nation is currently lacking the infrastructure to efficiently transport these liquid fuels to population centers. This bill will address this issue by encouraging the construction and use of pipelines, which can easily transport these fuels in a clean, safe and cost-efficient manner.

    "We must seize control of our energy future and take major steps towards the use of clean, renewable home-grown sources of energy," says Harkin. "Promoting the planning and development of projects that transport renewable fuels efficiently and inexpensively helps enlarge the market for biofuels like ethanol, reduces our dependence on foreign fuels and will provide good construction jobs."

    For more on this story, click here
    NAWG Submits House Ag Climate Change Questionnaire
    National Association of Wheat Growers (NAWG) has submitted its responses this week to a House Agriculture Committee questionnaire on climate change, emphasizing Association policy supporting a cap-and-trade program that allows unlimited agriculture sequestration. NAWG responses include:
    • A cap-and-trade program is the most effective approach to addressing climate change issues because this type of program would be a market-based system and able to provide the least costly means of delivering the greatest possible amount of greenhouse gas reductions.

      For more, click here
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    ACRE Program Enrollment Opens April 27
    USDA has announced that farmers can enroll in the Average Crop Revenue Election (ACRE) program beginning April 27. Growers have until Aug. 14 to make their decisions for the 2009 crop. USDA will not accept any late-filed applications. Those who elect the ACRE program for a farm agree to forgo counter-cyclical payments, accept a 20% reduction of the direct payments and accept a 30% reduction in loan rates for all commodities produced on the farm.

    For more, click here
    ACRE Spreadsheet Helps Farmers Decide
    Farmers thinking of signing up for the countercyclical revenue program in the 2008 Farm Bill should not give up in despair, says Peter Zimmel, University of Missouri economist. While benefit calculations seem complex for ACRE (Average Crop Revenue Election), new software speeds the decision.

    Missouri economists built a spreadsheet, called FARM Tool, posted on the Food and Agriculture Policy Research Institute (FAPRI) Web site www.fapri.missouri.edu/. Farmers can download the tool for use in their farm office. Benefits for signing up can be quite large, says Zimmel.

    For more click here
    Look For Freeze Damage
    When temperatures dipped well below freezing the night of April 6-7, it may have caused moderate to significant damage to wheat in parts of Kansas (as well as Oklahoma and Texas), says Kansas State University Agronomist Jim Shroyer.

    "Wheat that has either one or two joints can be injured by several hours of temperatures in the low 20s or lower," he says. "Even wheat that is not yet jointed will probably have some damage to the leaves, but this is just cosmetic injury that will not affect yields." However, producers should not make any quick decisions about the condition of their wheat crop.

    For more on this story, click here
    Coping With Curl Mite
    Texas AgriLife Research scientists are taking a close look at the damage caused by the wheat curl mite to determine some best management practices for producers and researchers. Jacob Price, AgriLife Research associate researcher-plant pathology, participated in a virus survey in 2008 that encompassed most of the central U.S.

    In the survey, the most common wheat viruses found in the 75 million acres of wheat across the U.S. were wheat streak mosaic virus, wheat mosaic virus (formerly High Plains virus) and a fairly recently discovered one, Triticum mosaic virus.

    For more, click here
    Vilsack Announces $17 Million For Beginning Farmers
    Secretary of Agriculture Tom Vilsack has announced that USDA is making more than $17 million in grants available under the Beginning Farmer and Rancher Development Program. “This program underscores President Obama’s commitment to support the nation’s beginning farmers and ranchers,” says Vilsack. “Through the Beginning Farmer and Rancher grant program, we can help ensure we are doing all we can for the next generation of America’s farmers and ranchers.”

    The Beginning Farmer and Rancher Development program is an education, training, technical assistance and outreach program designed to help U.S. farmers and ranchers, specifically those who have been farming or ranching for 10 years or less. Congress authorized the fiscal 2009 funding for this program in the 2008 Farm Bill, with another $19 million in mandatory funding for fiscal 2010.

    For more, click here
    Take Part In Corn & Soybean Digest Poll
    If you haven't already done so, please take part in an anonymous Corn & Soybean Digest (CSD) quick poll. The most recently posted question is:
    What is your main limiting resource?– time, operating capital or know-how on using new technologies. Answer the question and view quick poll results on CSD's home page at cornandsoybeandigest.com.
    Growers, What New Creations Are You Using?
    Dear Corn & Soybean Digest reader – All signs indicate that it’s soon time to get out into those fields and start the 2009 planting season. What new creations will you be using in your spring fieldwork? Did you modify anything over the winter months? Build a new implement in the warm shop while the temps fell outside? Corn & Soybean Digest wants to know!

    When it’s time to get out to the field with your newest project, we’d like to be right there with you to see what new or different ideas took shape with the torch and welder through the winter. If you or someone you know has built or modified machinery, we’d like to hear from you. No idea is too big or too small. We’re interested in machinery that’s been built from scratch, or several pieces of equipment that have been torn down and re-assembled as a single unit, or simple modifications to existing equipment.

    It’s always interesting to see anhydrous applicators, planters, sprayers and tillage tools that farmers have constructed to help them farm better, bigger or more efficiently. Also, we’re interested in any cost-cutting ideas that you’ve been doing to stay profitable. For example, have you been involved in any machinery sharing ventures, group input buying clubs, etc.? We can’t promise that we’ll get to every farm, but we promise to try. If you have an idea you’d like to share, please send an e-mail to CSD@csdigest.com or call Managing Editor Susan Winsor at 952-851-4662, or click below to enter your project. We will be in touch.
    Tell us about your creation! <insidepenton.com/research/sg/csd09shopproject.htm>

    Thanks for your help,
    The Editors
    AgriBusiness Job Site
    Go to www.agribizjobs.com/home/ and view some great opportunities for job seekers and ag companies looking for good employees. The site, part of Penton Media’s Ag Group, of which Corn & Soybean Digest and Farm Press are members, has a targeted online career center. Agribizjobs.com offers industry employers a growing, qualified audience of ag professionals and industry job seekers with agribusiness-specific categorized job listings. It’s a joint effort by Corn & Soybean Digest, Farm Press and sister publications, BEEF, Farm Industry News, Hay & Forage Grower and National Hog Farmer.

    At www.agribizjobs.com/home/ employers can view complete but anonymous resumes for free, and pay only to connect with a job seeker. Job seekers can post resumes in ag-specific employment categories and sign up to receive e-mail alerts when new positions are posted that match their search criteria.
    Thanks For Viewing eWheat
    If you have any questions, comments or suggestions on the content of this newletter, please contact your editor Larry Stalcup at beef2lar@suddenlink.net">href="mailto:beef2lar@suddenlink.net">beef2lar@suddenlink.net. Also, thanks to our exclusive sponsor, DuPont, and its products and services for growers like you.
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