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Corn, Soybean Acreage Battle This
Spring?
This week’s outlook for corn and soybean
profitability is better than it has been in a long time, says Chad Hart,
a grain market specialist at Iowa State University (ISU).
“We have two factors playing into an improved outlook that could
increase corn and soybean profitability in the next few months,” says
Hart. “First is the reduction in fertilizer prices since this fall.
Second is the relative price movement of corn since the beginning of the
year. Corn prices have been steadily gaining on soybeans, especially
within the last month.”
About now (April, May and June) is seasonally when commodity markets
offer their highest prices for corn and soybeans, points out Hart. He
adds that if the general economy can continue to show some improvement,
so will corn and soybean prices.
“However, even with the little price rally that we’ve seen over the
past two weeks, profitability for corn and soybeans doesn’t look
pretty for 2009,” cautions Hart. “It’s going to be a very tight
year with either corn or beans. So, I’m hoping farmers will be doing
some soil testing to see where they can control some fertilizer costs.
It also wouldn’t hurt to try to negotiate a better price with your
seed and fertilizer dealers and landlords this year.”
While early estimates forecast many U.S. farmers switching corn acres
for soybeans in 2009, those projections might still change, says Hart.
“We had a record soybean crop in 2008 and projections indicate we’ll
have a record soybean crop in 2009 at a time when demand is fairly weak,
especially domestic demand. Those factors may encourage the market to
bid higher for corn.”
Soybeans will still win out this year, predicts Gary Schnitkey,
University of Illinois farm management specialist. “Even with the
recent price increases for corn and reduced fertilizer costs, I don’t
see corn acres increasing from last year,” he says. “The acreage
battle this year is going to be how many acres soybeans will take from
corn.”
Yet, prices have changed enough recently to make profitability more
favorable for corn than soybeans in a lot of cases, he points out.
“However, once you include the land costs, farmers will still be
looking at a negative situation when trying to choose between corn and
soybeans,” says Schnitkey. “For 2009, we are projecting cash rents
in Central Illinois for high-productivity farmland to be about
$200/acre. We are also projecting the average return for operator and
land to be $187/acre. So, farmers are either going to need to have
better-than-average yields, higher prices than we are projecting or
lower-than-average costs to do better than breakeven this year.”
Farmers who booked fertilizer at more costly prices this fall will face
more challenges in achieving profitability than those who are buying
fertilizer now, he adds. “For example, the projected costs for
nitrogen anhydrous ammonia this spring is $63/acre or $27/acre less than
the projected price in the fall,” says Schnitkey. “Overall, corn
fertilizer prices are projected to be $151/acre for spring purchase, or
$59/acre less than in the fall. And soybean fertilizer prices this
spring are projected to be $83/acre or $9/acre less than in the fall.”
Which crop will be more profitable in 2009 will largely depend on prices
paid for fertilizer. “Farmers who pre-booked fertilizer at the higher
fall prices will see about the same profitability with either corn or
soybeans,” says Schnitkey. “For farmers who are buying fertilizer at
the lower projected spring prices, corn will probably be more profitable
than soybeans, especially on highly productive soils.”
To read more farm management information from Gary Schnitkey and the U
of I, click here: www.farmdoc.uiuc.edu/manage/index.asp.
For more information on grain prices from Chad Hart and ISU, click here:
www.econ.iastate.edu/faculty/hart/.
By John Pocock
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Hidden Good News For Soybeans In USDA's WASDE
Report
The much anticipated March USDA World Agricultural
Supply and Demand Estimates report was released recently and was bullish
for corn and soybeans and neutral to slightly bearish for wheat.
Although traders did expect the USDA to lower soybean projected ending
stocks, they were lowered more than the pre-report average estimate to
185 million bushels. That is just a 6% stocks-to-use ratio; the second
lowest in more than 30 years and probably below prudent minimum pipeline
supplies.
Lower domestic crush due to a decline in demand for soybean meal was
more than offset by an increase in projected soybean exports. China
continues to be the big buyer of U.S. soybeans as they anticipate a
lower South American soybean harvest because of the drought in
Argentina.
The USDA is projecting soybean production in Brazil and Argentina to be
down 7% in both countries. However, estimates coming out of Argentina
point to a greater yield reduction than that. Argentinean harvest data
will become available in a few weeks, at which time the USDA is likely
to lower the WASDE Argentinean production estimate. The USDA raised the
estimated U.S. season average farm price for soybeans to $8.85-9.85/bu.
Not mentioned in any news reports about the March WASDE was the USDA
demand estimates. For all the talk about ‘demand destruction’ it
does not show up in the USDA estimates. To be sure, demand is down
somewhat, but there has not been large scale demand destruction as many
have feared. U.S. exports for the marketing year will be less than last
year for wheat and corn; down a dismal 284 million bushels and 736
million bushels respectively. But U.S. exports of soybeans will actually
increase from last year, up by 24 million bushels.
To read more about the USDA’s March WASDE report, click here: www.agmanager.info/marketing/outlook/newletters/.
By Mike Woolverton, Kansas State University
Extension
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Study Confirms Soybean Checkoff Benefits
Entire Industry
During its recent board meeting in Charleston, S.C.,
the United Soybean Board (USB) was presented with the results of its
independent return-on-investment (ROI) study, which was conducted by
Gary Williams, director of the Texas Agribusiness Market Research Center
at Texas A&M University. The study found that the soybean checkoff has
returned $6.40 in additional profits to U.S. soybean farmers for every
dollar invested.
“The ROI study is very helpful as it shows the soybean checkoff is
working,” says Jim Stillman, USB audit and evaluation chair and a
soybean farmer from Emmetsburg, IA. “We are investing dollars and
getting a $6.40 return for every one we invest. You think of all the
different projects the checkoff invests in, and to see that kind of
return for every dollar that we have spent, it’s obvious we’re
driving demand throughout the world for our product.”
Also presented to the board at the Charleston meetings were the results
of the annual audit, which gave high marks to the checkoff’s fiscal
year 2008 financial records. “It’s very rare to have a completely
clean audit,” says Marc Curtis, USB treasurer and a soybean farmer
from Leland, MS. “These results show that the board is dedicated to
making sure everything is accounted for. They validate what we’re
doing and the financial accounting system at USB. It tells us we’re
doing things right.”
Mandated by the Federal Agriculture Improvement and Reform Act of 1996
and conducted every five years, the study was designed to answer two
questions. First, what have been the effects of the soybean checkoff
programs on U.S. and world soybean and product markets? And, second, has
the soybean checkoff program benefited soybean producers?
The researchers found the answers to those questions were overwhelmingly
positive. Major conclusions of the study include:
- The soybean checkoff has increased the size and profitability of the
U.S. soybean industry.
- The soybean checkoff has supported soybean and product prices each
year by an average of 2% above what prices would have been without the
checkoff.
- The soybean checkoff has boosted the annual level of soybean,
soybean meal and soy oil exports by an average of 5%, 15% and 24%,
respectively.
- The soybean checkoff has reduced the competitive threat of the South
American soybean industry.
- The soybean checkoff has acted as a countercyclical force in the
soybean industry, reducing the severity of market downturns in bad years
and adding to growth and profitability in good years.
For more information about the soybean checkoff, click here: www.unitedsoybean.org/default.aspx.
Source: United Soybean Board
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weather conditions, innovative new technologies and how to improve your
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It’s your one-stop shop for the latest in soybean farming – unitedsoybean.org.
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No Consistent
Advantage For Planting Soybeans Early
Planting soybeans on the optimum date produces maximum
yield and profit without increasing production costs. Unfortunately, the
optimum planting date is hard to indentify, because it varies from year
to year, depending on the weather and how much it rains and when it
rains.
“Planting date has been a favorite topic of researchers ever since
soybeans were introduced into the U.S., so there is a large database of
experiments in the literature. A combined analysis of this database will
provide a clearer picture of the average response than any single
experiment,” explains Dennis Egli, University of Kentucky, Lexington.
Egli and colleagues at the University of Kentucky analyzed the combined
results of planting date experiments and published their findings in the
March-April 2009 issue of the Agronomy Journal. The scientists
analyzed combined results of planting date experiments from the Midwest
(NE, ND, IA, IL, IN and OH), the Upper South (AR, KY, MO and TN) and the
Deep South (AL, FL, GA, LA, MS and SC). Planting dates varied from
mid-April (early April in the Deep South) to July. The experiments
included several varieties and several row spacings, but none were
irrigated.
In spite of the differences in environmental conditions and varieties
from the Midwest to the Deep South, the response of yield to planting
date was remarkably consistent across the three regions. Average yield
did not change as planting was delayed from mid-April until late May or
early June. Thus, there was no evidence that April plantings produced
higher yields in any of the three regions. Early April plantings were
included in the Deep South and average yields decreased for these
ultra-early plantings.
A previous study published in the Agronomy Journal [Vol.
101:131-139 (2009)] concluded that April and early May plantings in
Indiana consistently produced the highest yield. But these results,
based on the combined analysis of 28 experiments, show no significant
advantage for such early plantings from the Midwest to the Deep South.
While the results of this analysis show no consistent yield advantage
for planting early, there was also no consistent yield loss (except for
ultra-early plantings in the Deep South) associated with early
plantings.
“If the soil is ready for planting in April, producers should feel
free to plant, but they shouldn’t expect higher yield,” advises
Egli.
Planting into cold, wet soils, however, can reduce seedling emergence
and stand, which may require replanting to avoid yield loss.
Unacceptable stands may be more common if seeding rates are reduced to
the minimum to reduce seed costs.
Average yield declined rapidly when planting was delayed after May 30 in
the Midwest, June 7 in the Upper South and May 27 in the Deep South at
rates ranging from 0.7 (Midwest) to 1.1 (Upper South) and 1.2 ( Deep
South) percentage points per day. At these rates, delays of just two
weeks will reduce yields by approximately 10-20%.
There may be no particular advantage for early planting, but there was a
clear disadvantage for planting late, after the critical date in late
May or early June. Soybean producers can maximize their yield and
profits by making sure planting is completed before the critical date.
The full article is available for no charge for 30 days following the
date of this summary. View the abstract at agron.scijournals.org/cgi/content/full/101/2/330.
Source: American Society of Agronomy
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No-till Is
Better Choice For Soybeans After Corn
The wet 2008 fall put a hold on tillage operations for
many farmers, which may provide them with time to consider the use of a
no-tillage system for soybeans after corn. Conventional tillage, whether
for corn or soybeans, generally has shown limited advantage in yield and
economic returns. The exception is a few cases with corn that involve
lack of drainage and wet, cold soil conditions.
As preparations for spring field operations get underway, producers need
to stop and think about their tillage system choices. Especially given
the costs associated with conventional tillage operations – labor,
fuel and equipment just to name few. Primary tillage, such as a chisel
plow or deep ripping, often requires 1-1.5 gal. of fuel/acre, or more,
than a no-till system. A secondary tillage pass through the field with a
field cultivator or disk may use 0.5-0.7 gal. of fuel/acre.
These additional fuel costs for tillage operations, in addition to other
input costs, make no-tillage, a far better choice given the
insignificant soybean yield differences across all tillage systems. In
addition, demands on farm labor this spring may be greater than normal
due to the late 2008 harvest.
For more information on no-till soybean production, click here: www.extension.iastate.edu/CropNews/2009.
By Mahdi Al-Kaisi and Mark Hanna, Iowa State
University
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Look To Field History When Planting
Soybeans
When it comes to preparing Ohio soybeans, one of the
best sources of information growers can use to make planting decisions
is right beneath their feet – the field's history.
Anne Dorrance, an Ohio State University (OSU) plant pathologist with the
Ohio Agricultural Research and Development Center, advises letting the
field do the talking when it comes to managing two major soybean issues:
soybean cyst nematode (SCN) and seedling diseases.
“These problems with SCN and seedling diseases don't just occur out of
nowhere,” says Dorrance, who also holds an OSU Extension appointment.
“They slowly build up over time, so you can take your last field
history, or several years of field history, and use that information to
help you make a good planting decision for this season.”
Growers with a history of SCN should test their fields for cyst
populations and make planting decisions for resistant varieties based on
the results, adds Dorrance.
Deemed the “silent robber of yields,” SCN is the No. 2 soybean pest
in Ohio, behind Phytophthora sojae, which causes Phytophthora
root rot. Soybean cyst nematodes feed on young plant roots, preventing
roots from taking up vital nutrients. The result is a drop in yields and
subsequent economic losses.
The challenge, said Dorrance, is that not all resistant varieties will
be completely effective against the various cyst biotypes found in Ohio.
To read more about combating these two soybean yield robbers in Ohio,
click here: extension.osu.edu/~news/story.php?id=5066.
For updates on Ohio's soybean crop as the season progresses, refer to
OSU Extension's Agronomic Crops Team Web site at agcrops.osu.edu.
Source: Ohio State University
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K-State
Agronomist Gives Soybean Seed Rate Recommendations
Current soybean seeding rate recommendations for
Kansas are comparatively simple – three seeds/sq. ft., which
translates to 130,680 seeds/acre, says Kraig Roozeboom, Kansas State
University research and Extension crop production and cropping systems
specialist.
“This assumes 80% emergence for a final stand of about 105,000
plants/acre,” Roozeboom says. “The seeding rate recommendation
applies regardless of row width, date of planting and variety growth
habit.”
In high-yield, irrigated environments, the final stand should be closer
to 150,000 plants/acre.
These recommendations are about 42,000 seeds/acre (and 35,000
plants/acre) less than the recommendations of the mid-1990s, he adds.
“Research has shown that weed suppression by the soybean canopy is not
as important to maintain yield now as it had been in the past because of
the widespread use of glyphosate-resistant varieties,” says the
agronomist.
Source: Kansas State University
Extension
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Take Part
In Corn & Soybean Digest Quick Poll
Please take part in an anonymous Corn & Soybean
Digest (CSD) quick poll. The most recently posted question
is: What’s your machinery+labor cost/acre?
Answer the question and view quick poll results on CSD's home
page at: cornandsoybeandigest.com/.
(The poll question is just to the right of the “What’s New” top
section of the Web site.)
Source: Corn & Soybean Digest
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NBB
Statement On European Commission's Provisional Duty
Regulations
Manning Feraci, Vice President of Federal Affairs for
the National Biodiesel Board (NBB), issued the following statement in
response to the European Commission’s (EC) publication of Provisional
Duty Regulations in the ongoing anti-dumping (AD) and countervailing
duty (CVD) investigations of biodiesel from the U.S.:
“This is a flawed decision. The imposition of provisional duties is
nothing more than a politically expedient effort to appease the
protectionist whims of the European biodiesel industry and is
inconsistent with the European Union’s (EU) World Trade Organization
(WTO) obligations. This sets a dangerous precedent for global commerce.
“It is important to remember that this is an interim step in the
ongoing investigations. To comply with WTO rules, the EC must prove that
harm is being caused to the EU industry before duties are imposed. This
simply is not the case, and the EC has data before it clearly
demonstrating that the European biodiesel industry has not been harmed
by U.S. competition. In fact, some EU companies have fared quite well.
For those that have not, it is factors unrelated to U.S. competition –
bad business models, high feedstock costs and detrimental EU member
state policy – that are to blame.
“Hopefully, the EC will now take more time to fully consider the
evidence before it and render a final decision later this year that is
consistent with the facts and the EU’s WTO obligations.”
For more information on the NBB statement, click here: www.biodiesel.org/.
Source: National Biodiesel Board
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Want a CSD Editor To Visit Your
Farm?
When it’s time to get out to the field with your
newest crop production innovation, Corn & Soybean Digest
(CSD) editors would like to be right there with you to see what
new or different ideas took shape during the winter. If you or someone
you know has built or modified machinery, we’d like to hear from you.
No idea is too big or too small. We’re interested in machinery
that’s been built from scratch, or several pieces of equipment that
have been torn down and re-assembled as a single unit, or simple
modifications to existing equipment. It’s always interesting to see
anhydrous ammonia applicators, planters, sprayers and tillage tools that
farmers have constructed to help them farm better, bigger or more
efficiently.
Also, we’re interested in any cost-cutting ideas that you’ve been
doing to stay profitable. For example, have you been involved in any
machinery sharing ventures, group input buying clubs or innovative
marketing channels?
We can’t promise that we’ll get to every farm, but we promise to
try. If you have an idea you’d like to share, please send an e-mail to
CSD@csdigest.com or call Managing
Editor Susan Winsor at (952) 851-4662, or click on the following link to
enter your project: insidepenton.com/research/sg/csd09shopproject.htm.
Thanks for your help,
The Editors, Corn & Soybean Digest.
Source: Corn & Soybean Digest
Editors
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Soy Provides Source Of Heart-Healthy
Foods
According to a study conducted by researchers at the
University of Hong Kong and published in the European Heart
Journal, compounds found naturally in soy, known as isoflavones,
increase artery and heart health. The study was conducted on patients
with a history of stroke and high cholesterol. The results were measured
by artery diameter and cholesterol levels.
Not only is this good news for soybeans and overall health, it’s
especially beneficial for Americans, whose leading causes of death are
heart disease (number one) and stroke (number three) according to the
Center for Disease Control and Prevention.
“The soybean checkoff is always looking for more new uses for
soybeans,” says Jim Stillman, a soybean farmer and United Soybean
Board director from Emmetsburg, IA. “Anytime research about benefits
of soybeans comes out, it’s terrific news for soybean farmers.”
This isn’t the first time soy has been credited with aiding heart
health. According to the U.S. Food and Drug Administration’s soy and
heart-health claim, 25 grams of soy protein per day may reduce the risk
of coronary heart disease. Soyfoods with the heart-health claim on the
packaging must contain 6.25 grams of soy protein per serving.
A serving of soy can be achieved by snacking on a half cup of edamame,
pouring a cup of soymilk over cereal or adding a cup of soy nuts to a
salad. Mark Messina, director of the Soy Nutrition Institute, suggests
that consumers try to find soyfoods they enjoy and add them to their
regular diet.
To make sure that soy oil is healthy as well, the checkoff has invested
in research to develop low-linolenic soybeans that produce oils that
provide a solution to trans fat. These advancements saved a portion of
the edible-oil market share for soybean farmers and the entire soy
industry.
The soybean checkoff has assisted in solving the trans-fat problem
through researching trans-fat effects on human health, developing
initiatives such as QUALISOY to bring the entire value chain together
and by mapping the soybean genome to give researchers the tools to
develop healthier soybeans.
To learn more about the soybean checkoff programs, click here: www.unitedsoybean.org/programs.aspx.
Source: United Soybean Board
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Omega3 SoyButter Now Replacing Peanut
Butter
Manufacturers now have a ‘same taste’ one-to-one
substitute they can use to replace both peanuts and peanut butter in
virtually any kind of product. Never before has there been a product
that tastes, smells and looks just like peanut butter – until now,
from Hilton Soy Foods.
There is a twofold crisis now occurring in millions of homes, schools
and factories across the country. Due to the growing prevalence of kids
with severe allergic reactions to peanuts, schools are now banning our
kids from bringing any peanut or peanut butter products to school. In
addition, everyone now has tremendous food safety quality concerns and
negative perceptions resulting from the recent peanut salmonella
problems. Hilton's innovative peanut butter-like, Omega3
SoyButter can now solve both crises.
After four years of development, Hilton Soy Foods has created a safe and
healthy solution for manufacturers who want to help keep kids and
schools safe and free of peanut allergies. In addition, with Hilton's
Omega3 SoyButter and the various granulations of Toasted Soy
Ingredients available, manufacturers can now make a variety of
innovative products with a p-nutty taste that everyone can feel safe in
enjoying.
Hilton SoyButter is all natural with no fillers or artificial anything
that really does look, smell and taste like real peanut butter. Kids and
adults alike love the taste and can't believe it's not peanut butter.
To learn more about SoyButter, click on the following PDF format Web
link: www.soybutter.com/docs/PRESS-RELEASE-soybutter-to-MFTRS.pdf.
Source: Hilton Soy Foods
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Harvest Moisture Level
Dispute
I’ve received a fair amount of correspondence from
readers doubting a recommendation from Jim Beuerlein, Ohio State
University Extension soybean agronomist, to harvest soybeans at 17-18%
moisture levels. I had quoted Beuerlein in last week’s issue as saying
the following:
“Only bad things can happen to the [soybean] crop when it gets down to
17-18% moisture without being harvested. If you can spread out the
maturities of your varieties so that you harvest at a little higher
moisture level, you won't lose test weight or have shattering problems
that could cause yield loss.”
A recent note from Matt Danner, who farms in western Iowa, sums up many
of the other comments that I have recently received since that
Beuerlein’s statement was published:
“I really question the physical/logistical ability to combine, harvest
and store 18%-moisture beans,” writes Danner. “We run the newest
combines, with the most up-to-date technology, and still have difficulty
getting 15% moisture beans through them.
“Our buyers will not even look at anything over 15% and I’m scared
to run soybeans through our corn dryer,” he adds. “Air won’t dry
them well enough at 18% moisture – they will be rotten. If folks in
Ohio are actually cutting beans at 18% moisture, I would be very
interested in visiting with them on how they make it work.”
Beuerlein writes that choosing the right varieties are key to harvesting
at higher moisture levels. “Harvesting late-maturing soybeans late in
the season is certainly more difficult due to the stalks holding
moisture as a result of low temperatures and high humidity.” He adds
that “in narrow-row production (less than 15-in. rows) variety
maturity has very little effect on yield, and late-maturing varieties
for the area normally produce lower yields than the mid-season
varieties, which would be harvested earlier and could be air dried in a
bin from 17% to 13%. Contrary to popular belief, the full-season soybean
varieties for an area are not the highest yielding any more.”
Robert Hansen, an Ohio State University agricultural engineer, cautions
that harvesting and drying 17-18% moisture soybeans “is not for the
novice.” Farmers will need a natural air grain drying system “that
has at least a 1-2 cfm/bu. air-flow rate, whereas a typical aeration fan
moves only 1/10 of that,” he points out.
If possible, an electronic controller to manage air temperature and
humidity during the drying process would also be very helpful, adds
Hansen. Another key component to making natural air drying work is to
have a gravity spreader that will distribute fines/pods throughout the
bins, or better yet, use a rotary screen cleaner.
“If you already own a natural air grain drying system for corn, you
can take advantage of that system to get a head start on soybean
harvest, but be careful, follow the rules and try it a little at a
time,” says Hansen. “Natural air drying without supplemental heat is
what’s recommended.”
For more information on soybean harvest and storage tips from other
states, check these Web links:
For those of you who have experience at harvesting soybeans at 17-18%
moisture and use a natural air drying system, I’d like to learn from
you how well it works. When writing, please let me know your name, where
you farm, what your comment is and whether or not I have permission to
use your comment in a future Soybean E-Digest newsletter.
As always, you're welcome to write to me if you have concerns or
questions about this newsletter or have ideas on topics you’d like to
see me write about for future issues. You can contact me (John Pocock)
at: john.pocock@penton.com.
I look forward to hearing from you. Thanks for your readership, think
spring – and farm on!
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