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Delayed
Planting Favors Soybeans Over Corn
USDA’s crop progress report this week shows corn
planting 72% behind the five-year average in Illinois and not much
better in Indiana or its surrounding states. With more rain likely in
the next few weeks and the corn-planting window closing rapidly, many
farmers in these areas could end up switching their corn acres to
soybeans, says Drew Lerner, World Weather, Inc.
“We’ll see some planting progress being made shortly from northern
Missouri into Indiana, but I see no prolonged dry period ahead,” says
Lerner. “The last days in May will likely be dry for this area, but
then it will rain again in early June.
“Poorly draining fields in northern and central Illinois and in
west-central and north-central Indiana will likely need to switch to
soybeans or risk major yield reductions in corn,” adds Lerner. “On
the other hand, growing conditions this summer should be pretty good
once the crop is established.”
In general, rainfall will be plentiful, heat stress should be limited
and the frost threat subdued for the 2009 corn-growing season, predicts
Lerner. “I think there’s going to be a lot of moisture around
throughout summer,” he says. “It’s not going to be a very hot
summer, particularly for the northern and eastern Corn Belt, and I’m
not expecting any earlier-than-normal frosts or freezes.”
To read more about factors to consider before making a switch from corn
to soybeans, click here: cornandsoybeandigest.com/e-digest/0520-soybean-corn-delayed-planting.
By John Pocock, Corn & Soybean
Digest
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Planting
Progress Lags In Many Top Soybean-Producing States
Farmers in the eastern Corn Belt are well behind the
five-year-average for planting corn and soybeans this year, according to
USDA’s May 18 crop progress report.
As of May 17, corn acres planted had only reached 20% in Illinois, 24%
in Indiana, 39% in Ohio and 41% in Michigan, compared to five-year
averages of 92%, 83%, 82% and 77%, respectively. Soybean planting was
also well behind normal in these states as well, with only 1% done in
Illinois, 6% in Indiana, 17% in Ohio and 15% in Michigan, compared to
their respective five-year-averages of 50%, 49%, 57% and 46%.
To read more about the USDA’s crop progress report, click here: usda.mannlib.cornell.edu/usda/current/CropProg/CropProg-05-18-2009.txt.
By John Pocock, Corn & Soybean
Digest
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2009 Shaping Up To Be A Good Soybean
Year
Despite government predictions hinting at soybean
acreage only slightly above that planted in 2008, there’s still a lot
of elasticity left in landing on the final planted acreage numbers for
the new crop year.
The missing piece of the puzzle here is 7.64 million acres not yet
accounted for compared with 2008’s total planted area.
“It’s quite possible that a large share of this 7.64 million acres
will be planted to soybeans,” says Rick Stern, United Soybean Board
(USB) production chair and a soybean producer from Cream Ridge, NJ.
“The economics favor soybeans – world demand is very strong, and
there’s an overall upward trend for soybeans,” adds Stern, who farms
1,250 acres of soybeans, corn, wheat, barley, alfalfa and fresh-market
vegetables.
To read more about reasons behind the soybean’s recent market success,
click here: cornandsoybeandigest.com/e-digest/0520-good-year-for-soybeans/.
Source: United Soybean Board
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Is The Market Too Complacent About Planting
Delays?
While it's too early to forecast the size of the 2009
U.S. corn crop, the market appears to be ignoring the potential yield
reduction due to delayed planting in the eastern Corn Belt, says Darrel
Good, University of Illinois (U of I) Extension economist.
“The USDA's crop progress report showed only 48% of the crop planted
as of May 10 – equal to last year's slow pace and below the five-year
average of 71%,” notes Good. “So far, the corn market has had only a
modest reaction to these planting delays.”
As of May 18, December 2009 corn futures prices were only a bit lower
than those in early April and only about 50¢ above the low of the past
four months.
The very measured response to slow planting progress may reflect the
market's focus on other pricing factors.
“However, the anticipation of a rebound in U.S. corn exports and
another substantial increase in ethanol use of corn during the year
ahead, along with a more stable stock market and rising gasoline prices,
should all be supportive for corn prices,” says Good.
He says the market may be remembering 2008, when the effects of some
planting delays and some replanting were offset by very favorable
weather in July, resulting in an above-trend U.S. average yield. In
addition, planting delays this year are not as widespread as last year.
Delays are severe in Missouri, North Dakota and much of the eastern Corn
Belt, but planting has been rapid in the large corn-producing states of
Iowa, Minnesota and Nebraska.
“Yet the market may be underestimating the potential yield
implications of extremely late planting in the eastern Corn Belt,” add
Good. “It appears, for example, that the percentage of the Illinois
crop planted ‘late’ this year will be the largest in at least 50
years.”
To read more about how delayed planting may impact grain markets, click
here: cornandsoybeandigest.com/e-digest/0519-corn-planting-delays/.
Source: University of Illinois Extension
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Eastern Corn Belt Drier This Week
The soggy eastern half of the Corn Belt will
experience a needed shift to warmer, drier weather this week, but it is
unclear whether the window of improved conditions will be large enough
to allow producers there to catch up substantially on corn planting.
After heavy rains fell across Illinois and Indiana last week, many corn
growers in those key producing states will not be able to return to
their fields until the second half of the week and forecasters say
rainfall could return by next week.
"This week looks like the driest week this season for the eastern Belt,
which they need," Mike Palmerino, meteorologist with DTN Meteorlogix
told Reuters News Service. “Next week it could be an increase in
rain.”
Palmerino expects weather in the eastern Belt is expected to stay dry
through Saturday, with a few light showers possible on Sunday and
temperatures ranging from the upper-60s to low-80s degrees Fahrenheit.
But precipitation is expected to be normal to above-normal in the six-
to 10-day outlook, which may stall plantings once again, Palmerino told
Reuters.
To learn more about planting conditions ahead, click here: cornandsoybeandigest.com/richardbrock/0518-eastern-corn-belt-dry/.
Source: Brock Associates
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Bear Market For
Beans?
The biggest move of the year could be a bear market in
new-crop soybeans, according to market analyst Richard Brock, Brock and
Associates, speaking at a Web cast following USDA’s May World
Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates.
While the market appears bullish with old crop U.S. ending stocks at 130
million bushels, new-crop stocks are expected to climb by 100 million
bushels by the end of this marketing year. World ending stocks for
soybeans are projected by USDA at 51.8 million metric tons, which Brock
says “is toward the high end” of trade estimates.
In addition, Argentina and Brazil are expected to rebound from poor
crops in 2008, “which could contribute to a downward trend in soybean
prices,” says Brock.
Planted U.S. soybean acres could be higher than USDA’s estimate of 76
million acres, according to Brock. “With a currently high-priced
soybean market, producers will be encouraged to put marginal acres in
soybeans. You can lock in $9-9.50 off the combine.”
Things could turn bearish for soybeans if 78 million acres are planted
in the U.S. “A 43-bu. yield would result in 319 million bushels in
ending stocks. The biggest move of the year is going to be a bear market
in new-crop soybeans. We’re not ready to start it today or tomorrow,
but there is a huge downward trend coming in this market.”
Meanwhile, a big surprise in USDA’s May report was the lower carryover
estimate for the 2009-2010 corn crop, at 1.145 billion bushels. “While
this is not super bullish for corn, it certainly takes out the long-term
bearishness in the corn market.”
To read more about Brock’s 2009-2010 grain market forecasts, click
here: deltafarmpress.com/soybeans/erob-brock-0519/.
By Elton Robinson, Farm Press
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Soybean Rust Symposium
Planned
The 2009 Soybean Rust Symposium will be held Dec. 9-11
in New Orleans, LA. It is being organized by The American
Phytopathological Society (APS) in cooperation with related
organizations to bring together leaders in the soybean community to hear
results, determine progress and share perspectives on soybean rust.
The symposium program will feature presentations and discussions on such
topics as the status of soybean rust in Argentina, Brazil, Mexico and
the U.S., as well as poster viewing and sessions on the current state of
soybean rust and steps for the future.
The preliminary program is available now at www.apsnet.org/online/sbr/.
Source: American Phytopathological
Society
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Any
Comment?
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Source: Corn & Soybean Digest
Editors
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Take Part In
Corn & Soybean Digest Quick Poll
Please take part in an anonymous Corn & Soybean
Digest (CSD) quick poll. The most recently posted question
is: Are you planning to sign up for the new ACRE program?
Answer this question and view quick poll results on CSD's home
page at: cornandsoybeandigest.com/.
(The poll question is just to the right of the “What’s New” top
section of the Web site.)
Source: Corn & Soybean Digest
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Want A
CSD Editor To Visit Your Farm?
If you or someone you know has built or modified
machinery, Corn & Soybean Digest (CSD) editors would like
to hear from you.
No idea is too big or too small. We’re interested in machinery
that’s been built from scratch, or several pieces of equipment that
have been torn down and re-assembled as a single unit, or simple
modifications to existing equipment. Also, we’re interested in any
cost-cutting ideas that you’ve been doing to stay profitable.
We can’t promise that we’ll get to every farm, but we promise to
try. If you have an idea you’d like to share, please send an e-mail to
CSD@csdigest.com or call Managing
Editor Susan Winsor at (952) 851-4662, or click on the following link to
enter your project: insidepenton.com/research/sg/csd09shopproject.htm.
Source: Corn & Soybean Digest
Editors
|
Follow Ed
Usset's Blog
Ed Usset, columnist for Corn & Soybean Digest,
keeps a running account of marketing information that you can now plug
into by going to his blog: www.edsworld.wordpress.com.
Once there, you’ll learn more about futures and options, much like his
students at the University of Minnesota. Don’t panic, but you’ll
even be able to take quizzes, just like you did when you were in
school.
Source: Corn & Soybean Digest
|
President
Obama Slashes Conservation Funding for FY 2010
“The President’s FY 2010 agriculture budget
contains some disappointing proposals,” says Jon Scholl, president of
American Farmland Trust (AFT).
“Despite his desire to support conservation and agriculture,
reductions in conservation spending will make it much more difficult for
farmers and ranchers to make changes necessary to protect our air, land
and water,” points out Scholl. “We are well aware of the difficult
economy and fiscal situation our nation faces, but we also recognize the
improvements agriculture can bring to the serious environmental
challenges we face, including climate change, reduced water quality and
the loss of farmland.”
President Obama’s proposed budget would cut hundreds of millions of
dollars from conservation programs that was promised under the 2008 Farm
Bill.
AFT’s Bob Wagner, senior director of farmland protection programs,
laments cuts to the Farm and Ranch Lands Protection Program (FRPP).
“This is one of the most cost-effective conservation programs in the
budget. Every $1 the federal government invests in protecting farmland
through conservation easements and other tools is matched with $3 by
farmers, and local and state programs.”
Wagner notes that the president’s budget would cut $30 million in
funding in 2010, and $175 million over the next three years if extended.
“State and local budgets are under enormous pressure, making the
federal FRPP matching money all the more important in protecting farm
and ranch land. These lands are a precious and irreplaceable natural
resource,” adds Wagner.
Another critical program is the Environmental Quality Incentives
Program, or EQIP. To read more about President Obama potential budget
cuts on EQIP and other conservation programs, click here: cornandsoybeandigest.com/ag-issues/news/0518-obama-cuts-fy2010-funding/.
Source: American Farmland Trust
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NASS To Release Census of Agriculture Data On
May 29
The National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS)
will release results of the 2007 Census of Agriculture summarized by
watershed on May 29 at 3:00 p.m. EDT. This will mark the first time that
census data will be available at the watershed level.
Data in the 2007 Census of Agriculture Watersheds publication will be
available by the six-digit hydrologic unit code (HUC), or watershed, as
defined by the U.S. Geological Survey. Additionally, this publication
will include watershed data from the 2002 Census of Agriculture to
demonstrate the changes in land use, production practices and livestock
distribution in the past five years.
For more information about the Census of Agriculture or to access the
watershed publication once it is released, visit www.agcensus.usda.gov.
Source: The National Agricultural Statistics
Service
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AFBF
Opposes House Climate Change Bill
Climate change legislation unveiled last week (H.R.
2454) “ignores the complex needs of a very diverse U.S. agricultural
industry” and will draw opposition from the American Farm Bureau
Federation (AFBF).
In a letter to members of the House Energy and Commerce Committee, AFBF
President Bob Stallman says that while the bill does not include
agriculture under the greenhouse gas cap provisions, in other respects,
the bill fails to include key principles Farm Bureau identified as
critical to U.S. agriculture.
“We have consistently advocated that any cap-and-trade bill must:
recognize and support the benefits agriculture can provide; make
economic sense for agriculture; provide for a strong leadership role for
USDA; and base any carbon sequestration program on sound science,” the
letter states.
According to Stallman, some sectors of the economy were accommodated as
the legislation was crafted, yet the bill ignores the complex needs of
American agriculture.
“The (bill) is laden with so many policy prescriptions that its impact
on the U.S. is almost impossible to measure and evaluate,” Stallman
says. “We can be certain of some things, however – it will increase
our operating costs and reduce our competitiveness abroad.”
To learn more, click here: cornandsoybeandigest.com/e-digest/0520-AFBF-opposes-climate-change-bill/.
Source: American Farm Bureau
Federation
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Soybean
Checkoff Powers Tractor-Pulling Season With
Biodiesel
This summer, the United Soybean Board (USB) and
soybean checkoff will again let the power of tractor pulling tell the
story of soy biodiesel. The checkoff will help co-sponsor the 82-event
National Tractor Pullers Association (NTPA) season for 2009 as a way of
demonstrating the benefits of soy biodiesel, a homegrown,
environmentally friendly and renewable biofuel, to thousands of diesel
users.
As part of its sponsorship, the soybean checkoff will supply NTPA with
enough biodiesel to power pulling sleds and some tractors and
track-grooming equipment at select events. Plus, all NTPA on-road
vehicles will run on biodiesel blends. High-performance vehicles can
realize the same benefits as any other vehicle running on soy biodiesel:
increased lubricity, the highest BTU content of any alternative fuel,
high cetane and the best energy return of any liquid fuel.
“NTPA tractor pulls offer audiences full of diesel users who are
either very knowledgeable about biodiesel or have a lot of questions
about biodiesel,” says Russ Carpenter, USB director and a soybean
farmer from Trumansburg, NY. “We get to talk to a lot of farmers, a
lot of truck drivers and a lot of industry people who are interested in
biodiesel.”
To learn when and where NTPA tractor pull events will be held this year,
click here: cornandsoybeandigest.com/e-digest/0520-biodiesel-soybean-tractor/.
Source: United Soybean Board
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Biodiesel
Producers Deride EPA Calculations
In early May, President Obama instructed the USDA,
Department of Energy and EPA to form a working group to support the
development and expansion of domestic biofuels. As positive as that
sounds, without drastic changes to some underlying government
assumptions, the fledgling Arkansas biodiesel industry – already
hard-hit, like biofuel refineries across the nation – could be in dire
straits.
While Obama’s push is expected to jump-start a national biofuel
effort, the EPA has already been implementing the 2007 Energy
Independence and Security Act (EISA), which calls for 36 billion gallons
of renewable fuels in 2022. That is “enough to cut petroleum
consumption by nearly 11%,” said Lisa Jackson, EPA administrator, at
the working group announcement.
Jackson pledged the final biofuel rules would be “informed by the best
science.” That is cold comfort to the biofuels industry, which points
to the EPA’s current method of calculating indirect land use (ILU) as
especially galling.
To read more about EPA’s rulings and their negative impact on soybean
biodiesel, click here: deltafarmpress.com/biofuels/biodiesel-epa-calculations-0520/.
By David Bennett, Farm Press
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Sleep Deprivation Puts Your Safety At
Risk
Farmers intent on finishing fieldwork and planting
prior to rainfall events often deprive themselves of sleep for several
days in an effort to get their work done when the opportunity presents
itself. The results can be fatal. Several recent studies show that sleep
deprivation can impair judgment as much as consuming too much alcohol.
Impaired judgment, large machinery and potentially hazardous crop
protection products aren’t a good mix. So, please be careful. Get your
rest and don’t be too proud to ask a neighbor or friend for help if
you feel overwhelmed. It could save your life or someone else’s.
For more information on the impact of sleep deprivation on farm safety,
click here: www.cdc.gov/nasd/docs/d000701-d000800/d000705/d000705.html.
For more information about general spring farm safety, click here: www.extension.umn.edu/extensionnews/2009/time-to-think.html.
As always, if you have a comment about this or any other topic related
to soybean production, I’d be glad to hear from you. You're also
welcome to write to me if you have concerns or questions about this
newsletter or have ideas on topics you’d like to see me write about
for future issues. When writing, please let me know your name, where you
farm, what your comment is and whether or not I have permission to use
your comment in a future Soybean E-Digest newsletter. You can
contact me (John Pocock) at: john.pocock@penton.com.
I look forward to hearing from you. Thanks for your readership, remember
safety – and farm on!
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