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Logan
Hawkes
04/16/08
Crop News Weekly
Spring is in the air, as they say, and slow
progress is being made on the 2008 crop. USDA's latest estimates
indicate a gradual increase in planted acres this week with the promise
of greater progress as the season warms. But so far it's been a
slower-than-average start to the farm year, and that tends to make
investors nervous. Here's hoping for warmer weather and beneficial rains
once your seed is in the ground. In the news this week, Congressional
committees are still struggling with farm bill legislation. The House
and Senate have two very different versions of the bill and disaster
relief and nutritional programs - and the funding for both - are still a
stumbling block for lawmakers. Meanwhile, the April 18 extension
deadline is nearing and still no firm solution to funding problems. It
could be about time for the old, last minute hat trick. The question is,
what are they going to pull out - and from whose hat? In other news this
week, the grain trade is looking for a substantial reduction in the
projected 2007-2008 U.S. corn carryout and modest increases in soybean
and wheat ending stocks when USDA releases its latest monthly
supply/demand update on Wednesday. Also this week, as would be expected
with increasing fuel costs, the average 2008 custom rates for farm work
have risen, compared to 2007 and 2006 custom rates. Most custom rates
for farm work in 2008 are listed at 5-10% above the rates a year
earlier, with an average increase of about 7%. And as if there wasn't
enough to worry about, Clemson University fertilizer experts are warning
farmers about scams involving fertilizer this year. The old adage, “If
it sounds too good to be true, it probably is too good to be true,” is
worth remembering as farmers cope with soaring fertilizer costs. Finally
this week, a lively push-and-pull between soybeans and corn could be
developing in the wake of USDA’s March 31 Prospective Plantings
Report, which pegged lower-than-expected U.S. corn acres and
higher-than-expected soybean plantings.
You'll find these stories and more in this issue of Crop News
Weekly. Happy reading.
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USDA
seen cutting corn carryout 9%
The grain trade is looking for a substantial reduction
in the projected 2007-2008 U.S. corn carryout and modest increases in
soybean and wheat ending stocks when USDA releases its latest monthly
supply/demand update on Wednesday morning. Those expectations are based
on last Monday’s quarterly Grain Stocks Report, which showed
lower-than-expected March 1 corn stocks and higher-than-expected soybean
and wheat stocks. - Richard Brock, The Corn & Soybean Digest
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“Years of continued use of glyphosate, its increased market share in
several crops and weather conditions could combine to create a perfect
storm for resistant weed emergence.” The Syngenta Resistance
Fighter™ Solutions Module helps you find all the right products to
fight resistance in your fields. www.resistancefighter.com"
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First
farm bill conference unproductive
Only the primary authors of a new, approximately $280
billion farm bill still say the legislation will be in place by an April
18 deadline. And even they’re hedging — probably a wise approach
after the farm bill’s first conference committee on April 10 lasted
less than two hours and, according to multiple sources, failed to
dislodge entrenched positions or find the funds needed to pay for the
new legislation. The conference came about only after House Speaker
Nancy Pelosi, following weeks of refusing to name conferees, finally
produced a list of 49 (compared to the Senate’s 11) just prior to the
meeting. The group is largely made up of urban-based representatives, a
fact cited by several unhappy senators from largely agricultural states.
- David Bennett, Farm Press Editorial Staff
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Spring
planting progresses; slightly stronger
Spring may be slow in the coming in parts of the West
and Midwest, but USDA's estimated crop progress report this week shows a
stronger number of crops in the ground than last week and indicates
growers are beginning to pick up steam heading into the second half of
April. USDA estimates the U.S. corn crop is only 2% planted, but spring
wheat plantings are at 8% as of Monday, up from 5% last week. Traders
had expected a 3% planted corn crop prior to the report, and expected
wheat planting to range betweem 10-15%. With weather slowly improving
this month, producers are expected to make up for lost ground as we head
into May. - Logan Hawkes
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Senate
offers $10-billion-above baseline proposal
Senate leaders say their version of the 2008 farm
bill, which contains $10 billion above the Congressional Budget Office
“baseline,” should be the model for the legislation that must be
passed by April 18 to keep farm programs from reverting to permanent
law. But the chairman of the House agriculture Committee said the Senate
bill, although close to a proposal offered Thursday (April 10) by House
conference committee members, still requires more work before it can be
adopted. Senators Tom Harkin, D-Iowa, and Max Baucus, D-Mont., chairmen
of the Senate Agriculture and Finance Committees, announced the Senate
conferees latest proposal Friday afternoon (April 11).
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Custom
rates increasing
As would be expected with increasing fuel costs,
average 2008 custom rates for farm work have also risen, compared to
2007 and 2006 custom rates. Most custom rates for farm work in 2008 are
listed at 5-10% above the rates a year earlier, with an average increase
of about 7%. In addition to higher fuel costs, increasing cost for new
and used machinery is also a factor in the higher custom rates. These
results are based on the annual Iowa Farm Custom Rate Survey that is
coordinated and analyzed by Iowa State University. The survey sampled
185 custom operators, farm managers and ag lenders on what they expected
2008 custom farm rates to be for various farm operations. - Kent
Thiesse, The Corn & Soybean Digest
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of foliar diseases and improved plant physiology.Click here to learn more.
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Word
from the show floor
Two Big farm shows fall within two weeks of each other
— the National Farm Machinery Show in Louisville, KY, and Commodity
Classic held in Nashville, TN. The mood at both shows seemed upbeat as
farmers were clearly feeling more freedom to shop for new equipment,
seed and chemicals. What was the talk buzzing around the show floors?
Trying to buy tractors, combines or field equipment for this season is
tough. Some product lines are sold out until 2009. Others post a three-
to nine-month wait. China's demand for steel has created a competitive
market, and prices are headed north, possibly more than last year's 25%
price increase. One manufacturer reported its steel source jumped prices
7% in just one month. - Karen McMahon, Farm Industry News
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New
kids on the block
Settling for Average just doesn't fit in the farm
equipment business anymore. As state-of-the-art facilities pop up in the
countryside these days, companies are not only renovating floor plans,
but are revitalizing their role in retail friendliness. Peaking inside
these walls may surprise you. There is now something for everyone, every
day of the year. - Harlen Persinger, Farm Industry News
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ROAD
WARRIOR: Bubbles and funny money
Dave Kohl writes: "Money floats around the
world attempting to find a place to get lost. This excess investor money
is looking for a quick buck and now it is being parked in commodity
markets for gold, platinum, wheat, corn, beans, etc. If you have ever
observed bubbles and cycles, usually toward the end there is a run up in
asset values created by speculation. Tulips in Holland in the 1600s, the
railroad in the 1800s, oil in the 1970s and the stock market in the
1920s and 1990s in the U.S. are classic examples of irrational behavior
created by “funny money.” By the way, my business partners in the
dairy creamery coined this term." - The Corn & Soybean Digest
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Clemson
officials warn of fertilizer scams
Clemson University fertilizer experts are warning
farmers about scams involving fertilizer. The old adage, “If it sounds
too good to be true, it probably is too good to be true,” is worth
remembering as farmers cope with soaring fertilizer costs. The
Department of Plant Industry at Clemson registers and analyzes all legal
fertilizers sold in South Carolina. Farmers who have doubts about
fertilizer products should call plant industry officials at (864)
656-2140. In the past two years agricultural production prices have
skyrocketed, raising the costs to grow crops. In many cases fertilizer
prices have nearly tripled. Some producers are searching for less costly
alternatives, but they need to be aware of getting conned, say plant
industry leaders. - Diane Palmer, Clemson University
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House
announces farm bill conferees
Agriculture Committee Chairman Collin Peterson has
released the list of congressmen appointed to participate in the
conference committee that will negotiate the 2008 farm bill. “The
members serving on this conference committee have a challenging job as
we work to come to an agreement that will move the farm bill forward,”
Peterson said. “I’m confident that if everyone comes to the table
willing to negotiate and compromise, we can pass a new farm bill that
will expand important nutrition and conservation programs and provide
new resources for fruit and vegetable producers and renewable energy
programs while improving the farm safety net.”
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Higher
corn price to ration supplies?
A lively push-and-pull between soybeans and corn could
be developing in the wake of USDA’s March 31 Prospective Plantings
Report, which pegged lower-than-expected U.S. corn acres and
higher-than-expected soybean plantings. According to the report, corn
growers intend to plant 86 million acres in 2008, compared to the
average trade estimate of 87.39 million acres. Soybean producers intend
to plant 74.8 million acres in 2008, compared to the average trade guess
of 71.72 million acres. A projected yield of 154 bushels per acre would
produce a corn crop of about 12.2 billion bushels. Forecast usage of
13.02 billion bushels would leave ending stocks near 636 million bushels
and an extremely tight stocks-to-use ratio of 4.9 percent. - Elton
Robinson, Farm Press Editorial Staff
|
Cattle
power new ethanol plant technology
A new technology integrates cattle and an ethanol
plant into a so-called closed loop system that also produces energy
required for the thermal needs of the plant and fertilizer for crop
production. The technology is on display on a farm adjacent to the
University of Nebraska research farm, in Mead, Neb. According to Patrick
Tracy of Prime BioSolutions in Mead, the company that has patented the
technology, the cores of the facility are a 30,000-head cattle operation
and a 25-million-gallon ethanol plant. Tracy told attendees of the
National Alliance of Independent Crop Consultants in Seattle, Wash.,
that the facility captures about 12,000 pounds of actual nitrogen per
day, enough to treat about 10,000 acres based on 1.2 pounds per acre
needed per bushel of corn. It also produces about 12,000 pounds of
phosphorus and 9,800 pounds of potassium per day. - Elton Robinson,
Farm Press Editorial Staff
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NCGA urges
vote on Colombia FTA
The National Corn Growers Association is urging
Congress to preserve the 90-day timetable under which the Colombia free
trade agreement was negotiated. Under trade promotion authority granted
to the president by Congress, lawmakers have 90 days to approve or
reject the trade pact, without consideration of any amendment. On April
7, President Bush sent Congress a letter implementing legislation for
the Colombia Trade Promotion Agreement. “The Colombia free trade
agreement should be considered and voted upon this year, and not
sidelined due to procedural maneuvering,” said NCGA President Ron
Litterer. ”This agreement is good for U.S. agriculture and corn
growers. Let’s have the agreement in front of Congress fair and square
— on its own merits.”
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U.S.
corn crop needs 3 million more acres
U.S. corn producers need to plant about 89 million
acres this spring to avoid exacerbating an already tight supply
situation, according to Alan Conrad, with the Zaner Group, speaking at
the Minneapolis Grain Exchange press briefing on the April 9 World
Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates. “The trade really needs more
than 86 million acres (projected by USDA’s March 31 Prospective
Plantings Report) this year. The usage numbers and a trend line yield of
154 bushels could leave us with a carryout of 650 million bushels next
year, which does not allow for any problems or errors this coming
summer. “It tells me we need more corn and the volatility in the corn
market will continue. I think we need a minimum of 3 million more acres
of corn.” - Elton Robinson, Farm Press Editorial Staff
|
Disaster
legislation could block farm bill passage
Ad hoc disaster assistance bills have proven to be
tough nuts to crack in recent years, and passing permanent disaster
assistance legislation won’t be that easy either, judging from the
first meeting of the farm bill conference committee. A proposal by House
conference committee members, who were only appointed Wednesday night,
provided no funding for a permanent disaster program that is the
centerpiece of the Senate farm bill. “The Senate bill includes and
funds a key initiative to help compensate farmers and ranchers for
disaster losses in a wide range of crops and livestock,” Iowa Sen. Tom
Harkin, chairman of the Senate Agriculture Committee, said in his
opening statement at the conference committee meeting Thursday.
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Nitrogen
strategies for a wet spring
This true or false quiz comes from the Iowa Soybean
On-Farm Network. It’s a part of their Nitrogen management handbook,
which can be accessed in full online at
www.isafarmnet.com/pdf/Nmanagement.pdf
True or False:
1. All you need to know about nitrogen management in corn is the
anticipated yield level and previous crop. False. Several factors
influence nitrogen availability and supply to the crop, to the extent
that most Midwestern states have dropped yield goal from their nitrogen
recommendations.
2. Although soybeans can fix nitrogen, the real reason corn after
soybeans needs less nitrogen is the lack of corn residue tying up
nitrogen.
True. First, soybeans tend to use more nitrogen than they fix. And
second, as soil bacteria break down crop residues, they tie up nitrogen.
The more crop residue to be processed (as in the case of a corn crop vs.
a soybean crop), the more nitrogen the soil bacteria need.
Take the full quiz and get all the answers.- The Corn & Soybean
Digest
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Check out the latest corn and soybean market advice from
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