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Logan
Hawkes
09/24/08
Crop News Weekly
Welcome to the autumn season! Like it or not,
time is rushing by as we enter this last quarter of the year. The season
for harvest has arrived and in most cases is underway. Most producers
are already budgeting acres and researching their seed choices for
spring planting. It's pointless to say the weather isn't always
cooperating. That much we expect. But if frost doesn't fall early and
markets hold, it could be a good end of the year after all. In the news
this week, light crude oil prices are finally dropping, and in spite of
incremental rises over the last couple of days, the downward slide is
expected to resume. Bobby Coats, an extension economist for the
University of Arkansas Division of Agriculture, predicts the decline
isn’t nearly finished. Find out why. Also this week, if you grew up on
a farm, nobody has to tell you a farm is a good thing. Chances are,
memories of life on the farm are some of your most cherished, and you
will never, never cease to feel its pull. But will you ever go back?
Explore the issue below. Elsewhere, don’t be fooled by healthy-looking
soybean plants. They can still suffer from soybean cyst nematode (SCN),
says Iowa State University Plant Pathologist and Nematologist Greg
Tylka. Be on guard. As far as crop conditions are concerned, U.S. crop
conditions ratings held steady last week, but crop maturation remained
well behind normal as wetter weather hit the main Midwest production
belt. Improved conditions in parts of the western Corn Belt offset a
drop in Illinois crop conditions and the U.S. corn crop rating held at
61% good/excellent, while the soybean crop rating held at 57%
good/excellent. Finally, an ethanol-fueled spike in grain prices will
likely hold, yielding the first sustained increase for corn, wheat and
soybean prices in more than three decades, according to new research by
Darrel Good and Scott Irwin, University of Illinois farm economists.
You'll find these stories and more in this issue of Crop News
Weekly. Happy reading.
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Oil prices
expected to continue slide
Light crude oil prices are finally dropping, much to
the relief of motorists. Bobby Coats, an extension economist for the
University of Arkansas Division of Agriculture, predicts the decline
isn’t finished. “Light crude oil prices have had an explosive price
run-up since their January 2007 low of $50 per barrel,” he said. “By
the beginning of 2008, oil prices had doubled to $100 per barrel, and by
mid-July, oil prices had peaked above $145 dollars per barrel. Since
then, light crude oil prices have been drifting downward, right on past
$100 a barrel.” What’s causing the fall in oil prices? “The
decline started as a normal correction and now the financial crisis has
created a major crisis on Wall Street,” Coats said. “This has
further weakened oil prices due to the uncertainty about maintaining
global economic momentum and this uncertainty raises questions about
future global oil demand.” - Lamar James, Arkansas Extension
Specialist
(To read the complete article, click on the headline above)
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Family farm
could be a lasting legacy
If you grew up on a farm, nobody has to tell you a
farm is a good thing. Chances are, memories of life on the farm are some
of your most cherished, and you will never, never cease to feel its
pull. But will you ever go back? What will become of that farmland you
either now own, or will someday own with siblings? If you do intend to
stay on or go back to the family farm, who will be the actual owner or
owners of the property, and who will have control over how the property
is used? As our population grows and city limits continue to extend
further and further into the countryside, family farms are facing new
challenges. The upcoming “Tennessee Farmland Legacy Conference”
could provide some answers — or at least get an open and healthy
conversation started among family members — about a number of options
to help ensure that your family farm can remain in the family, and
become a lasting legacy for its surrounding community. (To read the
complete article, click on the headline above)
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Healthy
looking soybeans may not be
Don’t be fooled by healthy-looking soybean plants.
They can still suffer from soybean cyst nematode (SCN), says Iowa State
University Plant Pathologist and Nematologist Greg Tylka. For
step-by-step video instruction on how to inspect your soybean roots for
telltale female SCN eggs, go to
http://cornandsoybeandigest.com/tv/0923_tylka_cyst_nematodes. Tylka says
that these female eggs are visible on infected soybean roots anytime
between five or six weeks post planting through August. For a selection
of Corn & Soybean Digest videos on topics that help to improve your
profitability, point your Web browser to
http://cornandsoybeandigest.com/tv/. - Corn & Soybean Digest
(To read the complete article and view the video, click on the
headline above)
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Crops
maturing slowly, but frost risk low
U.S. crop conditions ratings held steady last week,
but crop maturation remained well behind normal as wetter weather hit
the main Midwest production belt. Improved conditions in parts of the
western Corn Belt offset a drop in Illinois crop conditions and the U.S.
corn crop rating held at 61% good/excellent, while the soybean crop
rating held at 57% good/excellent in Monday afternoon’s weekly crop
update from USDA. - Richard Brock, Corn & Soybean Digest
(To read the complete article, click on the headline above)
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New
study says high grain prices are likely here to stay
An ethanol-fueled spike in grain prices will likely
hold, yielding the first sustained increase for corn, wheat and soybean
prices in more than three decades, according to new research by Darrel
Good and Scott Irwin, University of Illinois farm economists. Corn, an
ethanol ingredient that has driven the recent price surge, could average
$4.60/bu. in Illinois, nearly double the average $2.42/bu. from 1973 to
2006, say Good and Irwin, professors of agriculture and consumer
economics. - Corn & Soybean Digest
(To read the complete article, click on the headline above)
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Production
forecasts cut
Even with the USDA's recent cut in 2008 corn and
soybean production forecasts, price prospects are far from settled, says
Darrel Good, a University of Illinois Extension marketing specialist.
"Changes in U.S. and world production prospects, energy prices and world
economic conditions will continue to influence prices," says Good. "A
further drop in U.S. corn and soybean production forecasts is expected
in October. "It is also encouraging that prices are holding up well in
the face of poor economic news and declining crude oil prices." -
Corn & Soybean Digest
(To read the complete article, click on the headline above)
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THIESSE'S
THOUGHTS: September Crop Report
The USDA Crop Report released on Sept. 12 decreased
the estimated U.S. corn production for 2008 by about 2%, or by
approximately 216 million bushels, from the Aug. 1 estimate. The
expected total production level in 2008 is now projected at 12.072
billion bushels, with a national average corn yield of 152.3 bu./acre.
This compares to a total U.S. corn production of 13.074 billion bushels
in 2007, and a national average corn yield of 151.1 bu./acre.
Minnesota’s average 2008 corn yield on Sept. 1 is projected at 163
bu./acre – 17 bu./acre higher than the final 2007 corn yield of 146
bu., but below the record state corn yield of 174 bu. in 2005. The
estimated 2008 corn yields in some other major corn production states
include: Iowa, 168 bu.; Illinois, 172 bu.; Indiana, 164 bu.; Nebraska,
157 bu.; and Missouri, 142 bu. - Kent Thiesse, Corn & Soybean
Digest
(To read the complete article, click on the headline above)
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Great
Taste Or Less Filling? Part 2
Road Warrior Dave Kohl writes: "Here is the
second edition of “Great Taste, Less Filling for the General
Economy” this fall and winter, building off last week column. Last
time we discussed housing and oil as two critical factors to observe.
Here are some more factors that come into play. Unemployment Rate: The
U.S. economy is coming off several months of job loss. Unemployment has
increased from 4.5 to 5.7% with a true unemployment rate including
discouraged workers of nearly 10%. If the unemployment rate increases
this fall and winter from 6 to 9% and rises to 12%, including the
discouraged workers, a case could be built for a possible extended,
steep recession..." - Corn & Soybean Digest
(To read the complete article, click on the headline above)
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Seeds
For Energy
A New Provision in the 2008 Farm Bill's Energy Title
could be just the incentive some producers need to test growing biomass
for huge renewable energy markets ahead. The new Biomass Crop Assistance
Program (BCAP) may help solve “the chicken or the egg problem” in
the development of the cellulosic ethanol industry, says Anna Rath, vice
president, commercial development, Ceres Inc. The problem definitely is
a question of which comes first: Many growers have been interested in
growing dedicated energy crops but have not had a market for them, and
cellulosic ethanol producers have been unwilling to construct plants
without readily available feedstock nearby. - Lynn Grooms, Farm
Industry News
(To read the complete article, click on the headline above)
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Cool
weather brings threat of sorghum ergot
Honeydew could begin dripping from grain sorghum and
forage sorghum heads in Kansas this year, according to a Kansas State
University scientist. The cause: sorghum ergot. This disease
occasionally causes problems in very late-maturing grain sorghum and on
male-sterile forage sorghum in the Central Plains, said K-State Research
and Extension plant pathologist Doug Jardine. Why the concern this year?
"The combination of cool nighttime temperatures and late-flowering
sorghum in late August and early September is the reason," Jardine said.
"Cool nighttime temperatures inhibit pollination and create an avenue of
infection for the organism." Sorghum ergot infects the ovaries of
sorghum flowers and often converts them into a white, fungal mass. The
most obvious external symptom of infection is the sticky honeydew that
often drips onto the leaves and soil, he said. (To read the complete
article, click on the headline above)
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Good
'nues' about seeds
The good news is that, over the last 20 years, average
corn yields have increased about 1.5% per year without a significant
increase in nitrogen application rates. Even better news is that
geneticists and plant breeders are now developing hybrids that will
require less nitrogen while maintaining overall yield. Good news indeed
since the price of nitrogen fertilizer, which has continued to rise, is
one of the largest farm input costs. It accounts for about one-fifth of
a corn grower's operating expenses. Farmers apply an average 138 lbs. of
nitrogen/acre/year, according to Pioneer Hi-Bred, a DuPont company. Over
the last three years, farmers have paid an average of $43/acre for
nitrogen. Using that figure, a grower could save $8.60/acre if the
nitrogen rate could be cut by 20%. Nitrogen rates, of course, vary
widely as does the price of nitrogen from year to year. - Lynn
Grooms, Farm Industry News
(To read the complete article, click on the headline above)
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House
committee suspends 10-acre rule
Farmers who have been frustrated by USDA’s refusal
to allow them to reconstitute their operations — no matter how small
— to continue to receive farm program payments on all their acres may
soon get some relief. The House Agriculture Committee approved a bill to
suspend for the 2008 and 2009 crop years a provision in the Food,
Conservation and Energy Act that requires producers to have a minimum of
10 base acres to receive program benefits. USDA has told operators they
could not combine farms to avoid the rule. “The department’s notice
is a substantial change from what was in place prior to the most recent
farm bill and runs contrary to what Congress intended when it wrote this
provision and passed the bill,” said Committee Chairman Collin C.
Peterson, D-Minn. - Forrest Laws, Farm Press Editorial Staff
(To read the complete article, click on the headline above)
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House
passes commodities market transparency bill
The House of Representatives voted Thursday to approve
a bill to increase the transparency, oversight, and anti-manipulation
authority over commodity futures and options markets. The House
overwhelmingly passed H.R. 6604, the Commodity Markets Transparency and
Accountability Act of 2008, a bill sponsored by House Agriculture
Committee Chairman Collin C. Peterson of Minnesota, by a vote of
283-133. According to a House news release, the bill would strengthen
trader position limits on oil and other futures markets as a way to
prevent potential price distortions caused by excessive speculative
trading. It directs the CFTC to get a clearer picture of the
over-the-counter (OTC) markets, and it calls for new full-time CFTC
staff to improve enforcement, prevent manipulation, and prosecute fraud.
(To read the complete article, click on the headline above)
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More
soybean rust spreads in Mid-South
On Sept. 18, soybean rust was found in Coahoma,
Panola, Quitman, and Tallahatchie counties on soybeans in Mississippi
and in Prairie, Monroe and Lee counties on soybeans in Arkansas. On
Sept. 17, soybean rust was reported in Hinds County, Miss., on soybeans.
On Sept. 16, soybean rust was reported in Jefferson and Lincoln
counties, Ark., on soybeans; Clarke and Washington counties, Ala., on
kudzu; Jefferson County in Mississippi on soybeans; and in Thomas
County, Ga., on kudzu. On Sept. 15, soybean rust was reported on
soybeans in Autauga County, Ala., and in Bolivar County, Miss.
(previously detected in Bolivar County in January on kudzu but was
destroyed). (To read the complete article, click on the headline
above)
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Biofuels
production plays to U.S. strengths
Adding biofuels as a significant part of the U.S.
energy equation “plays to America’s strengths,” says David
Fleischaker, Oklahoma Secretary of Energy. Fleischaker, keynote luncheon
speaker at the recent International Conference on Sorghum for Biofuel in
Houston, said renewable energy should be part of the country’s
solution to energy security. He offered reasons biofuels will: Reduce
dependence on foreign oil: Reduce funding for terrorist organizations;
Revitalize the world economy; and enhance our environmental profile. He
said the United States is not among the leaders in oil reserves but is a
leader in biomass production. - Ron Smith, Farm Press Editorial
Staff
(To read the complete article, click on the headline above)
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