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Logan
Hawkes
12/17/08
Crop News Weekly
With Christmas barreling down like hot fudge on
a cold Sundae, Old Man Winter has decided to blanket the nation with a
chilly mid-December. I can't say it wasn't expected, but I will say it's
C-O-L-D! Even in the deep sub-tropics of South Texas temps are hovering
around the freezing mark. To be in a positive spirit about it, I'll just
say the chilly weather may be good for the holiday spirit, but I'm sure
I'd rather be fishing on the bay. I mention that because it seems so
many of my friends and colleagues have told me this year that they are
spending the long holiday break in exotic places like Cancun, Costa
Rica, and - the topper of them all - Down Under in Australia. For them,
I suppose, life is just a beach. For the remainder of us - the
bone-chilled majority - let it pacify us just to hear a happy holiday
season's greeting. I know, it's like getting another tie or pair of
socks for Christmas, but it's all I've got for you. Oh - on a quick
programming note, look for your copy of next week's issue of Crop
News Weekly a day earlier than usual.
And by the way, you're real Christmas present from our staff isn't going
to be ready until just after the first of the year. Crop News
Weekly is undergoing a new, nifty design to make the publication
more useful and informative. Don't be shocked when the first issue rolls
out in a couple of weeks and arrives in your inbox chocked full of new
features and a better layout. Our gift to you for the New Year: the same
trusted news sources and informative features wrapped in a new layout
that we hope you'll like. I think you will.
Here's some of the issues we're covering in this issue: It's been a
record year for exports of U.S. soy products. Over 1.5 billion bushels
of soy, valued at more than $12 billion, were exported from the United
States this year. Also this week, statistics tell a troubling story for
the U.S. ethanol industry. In its December 11 World Agricultural Supply
and Demand Estimates, USDA projected lower U.S. corn use mostly due to
reductions in ethanol use and corn exports. Ethanol use was projected
300 million bushels lower (7.5 percent) as prospects for blending above
federally mandated levels decline. Assuming this is accurate, then
consider this: In response to the ethanol industry, U.S. corn acreage
has jumped. Currently, some 25 percent of the U.S. corn crop is being
processed into ethanol. Since so much corn was needed for ethanol, where
did the extra corn acreage come from?. These are issues we tackle this
week, and many others in this weeks Crop News Weekly. Happy
reading.

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Record-setting
year for soy exports
Over 1.5 billion bushels of soy, valued at more than
$12 billion, were exported from the United States this year, according
to the United Soybean Board. U.S. soybean farmers shipped out over 1.1
billion bushels of whole beans. Up 11 percent from last year were
exports of soybean meal totaling 346 million bushels. Soybean oil
weighed in at nearly 1.1 million metric tons with an increase of 68
percent from last year’s numbers.
“Checkoff-funded global demand-building programs have demonstrated
their success with another record-setting year,” says Terry Ecker,
soybean farmer from Elmo, Mo., USB International Marketing chair. “The
programs work diligently to make sure that overseas customers prefer
U.S. soy. The numbers prove our checkoff farmer leaders understand the
importance of marketing U.S. soybeans.”
China is again the top importer of U.S. soybeans with 490 million
bushels, which go toward human and animal consumption. China also
imported 171,000 metric tons of soy oil from the United States, which is
used as a cooking oil and other food uses. (To read the complete
article, click on the headline above)

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“We’ve been
having problems with waterhemp and I wanted to get ahead of it. It
produces a ton of seed and we have a lot of cattle that spread it. So we
used Lumax® followed by Ttouchdown on our corn and it looks really
good. I’m surprised at how good it looks. Resistance is definitely a
concern. If it costs a few extra dollars up front, then it’s worth it
in the end. I’ll definitely include Lumax again next year.” Tom
Eiles, grower, Atlantic, Iowa. Learn more at www.resistancefighter.com
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Falling
corn use reflects financial problems in ethanol
Statistics tell a troubling story for the U.S. ethanol
industry. In its December 11 World Agricultural Supply and Demand
Estimates, USDA projected lower U.S. corn use mostly due to reductions
in ethanol use and corn exports. Ethanol use was projected 300 million
bushels lower (7.5 percent) as prospects for blending above federally
mandated levels decline, the report said.
USDA said that financial problems for ethanol producers are reducing
plant capacity utilization for existing plants and delaying plant
openings for those facilities still under construction. Falling gasoline
prices have also resulted in high relative prices for ethanol, reducing
blender incentives.
Despite reductions in expected meat production, corn feed and residual
use was raised 50 million bushels as lower ethanol production reduced
the availability of distiller grains. Corn exports are projected 100
million bushels lower reflecting strong competition from larger foreign
grain supplies and the slow pace of sales to date. Projected ending
stocks were raised 350 million bushels. - Elton Robinson, Farm Press
Editorial Staff
(To read the complete article, click on the headline above)

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Storage
issues as acreage expands
In response to the ethanol industry, U.S. corn acreage
has jumped. Currently, some 25 percent of the U.S. corn crop is being
processed into ethanol. Since so much corn was needed for ethanol, where
did the extra corn acreage come from?
“It came, generally, at the expense of soybeans and wheat,” said
Jeffrey Berg at the recent American Society of Farm Managers and Rural
Appraisers annual meeting in San Antonio (where he was named the
organization’s 2008 Appraisal Specialist of the Year). Berg, who has
helmed Minnesota-based agriculture appraisal company Crown Appraisals,
Inc., for the last 15 years, pointed out soybeans and wheat “yield,
say, 50 bushels per acre.”
The same acres, growing corn, “yield 150 to 200 bushels per acre.”
That means a net storage deficit of approximately 1.5 billion bushels.
As a result, farmers and elevators have been building storage “like
crazy” for the last four or five years. - David Bennett, Farm Press
Editorial Staff
(To read the complete article, click on the headline above)

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ASA
board calls for checkoff program investigation
The American Soybean Association (ASA) Board of
Directors yesterday approved calling for an Inspector General
investigation of the National Soybean Checkoff Program. ASA claims
serious allegations of abuse, wasteful spending and mismanagement have
surfaced about how national checkoff funds and program activities are
being conducted.
The ASA Board’s regularly scheduled winter meetings commenced Tuesday
in St. Louis. During the meeting, board members had the opportunity to
review the allegations of improper activities that have surfaced and
voted unanimously on Wednesday to call for an investigation. - Corn &
Soybean Digest
(To read the complete article, click on the headline above)

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United
Soybean Board responds to call
The allegations made by the American Soybean
Association (ASA) against the United Soybean Board (USB) regarding
mismanagement of farmer checkoff dollars are categorically untrue.
Today, U.S. soybean farmers enjoy record demand both here and abroad for
their soybeans, through the fiscally responsible efforts of the farmers
who serve voluntarily on USB. If the USDA deems it necessary, USB
welcomes a USDA Office of Inspector General audit of any and all of its
operations, contractor operations and projects. - reported in Corn &
Soybean Digest
(To read the complete article, click on the headline above)

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“I’ve definitely seen advantages of
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insecticide allows corn rootworm to die without actually biting the root
unlike with BT traits. Also, by controlling secondary pests, Force can
add to a grower’s yield, which is the main goal of any grower.“
Retailer from Greenview, IL. Click here for more details
on this quote and the economics of using Force over traited corn.
Force is a Restricted Use Pesticide.
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'Black
Gold' soil can lose its magic
What makes amazing soil amazing? High organic matter,
comprised largely of carbon.
The most agriculturally productive soils in the world, Mollisols,
(found, for example, in Iowa and Ukraine) contain up to 3.3% carbon.
Carbon is black gold. Yet, agricultural soils have lost, on average,
half of their carbon due to intensive cultivation and other degradations
of human origin, says Bruno Glaser, soil physics department, University
of Bayreuth, Germany. - Corn & Soybean Digest
(To read the complete article, click on the headline above)

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Triple-stack
corn plantings seen up 17%
Triple-stack corn seeds – which enable resistance to
corn borer, rootworm and herbicide – will occupy about 34-35 million
acres of U.S. cropland in 2009, says Robb Fraley, a Monsanto Co.
executive.
Monsanto estimates the plantings, which are projected to increase 17%
over 2008, to represent about a third of the U.S. total crop. Corn
yields have doubled since 1970 and are poised to double again in the
next 20 years, says Robb Fraley, Monsanto's executive vice president and
chief technology officer, at a Canaccord Adams agricultural industry
conference in Toronto. - reported in Corn & Soybean Digest
(To read the complete article, click on the headline above)

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National
tillage experts to speak at statewide seminar
“Tillage, Technology & Environmental Stewardship”
is the theme for the 2009 Illinois Regional Tillage Seminars, to be held
in January at three locations throughout Illinois. Clay Mitchell,
considered around the country to be an innovator in precision
agriculture, will speak on how to manage no-till/strip-till for weed
shifts and resistance, as well as the use of controlled-traffic, aligned
farming systems with long-term no-till/strip-till and its effects on the
soil. Mitchell farms on a 2,500-acre centennial farm in Northeast Iowa.
- Corn &Soybean Digest
(To read the complete article, click on the headline above)

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ROAD
WARRIOR: The Ugly Economic Numbers
Dave Kohl writes: "The last time we explored
one of the indicators of the health of the general economy: housing
starts. Now, let’s turn our attention to another indicator that may
provide insight to the direction of the economy. The Composite Leading
Index (CLI) is reported monthly and is a lead indicator of the health of
the economy going forward. This index has been instrumental in providing
signs of the direction of the economy since World War II. In fact, it
has predicted every recession since that period, but also errs on the
conservative side, predicting four recessions that did not occur..."
- Corn & Soybean Digest
(To read the complete article, click on the headline above)

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Storage
issues as acreage expands
In response to the ethanol industry, U.S. corn acreage
has jumped. Currently, some 25 percent of the U.S. corn crop is being
processed into ethanol. Since so much corn was needed for ethanol, where
did the extra corn acreage come from? “It came, generally, at the
expense of soybeans and wheat,” said Jeffrey Berg at the recent
American Society of Farm Managers and Rural Appraisers annual meeting in
San Antonio (where he was named the organization’s 2008 Appraisal
Specialist of the Year). Berg, who has helmed Minnesota-based
agriculture appraisal company Crown Appraisals, Inc., for the last 15
years, pointed out soybeans and wheat “yield, say, 50 bushels per
acre.” The same acres, growing corn, “yield 150 to 200 bushels per
acre.” That means a net storage deficit of approximately 1.5 billion
bushels. - David Bennett, Farm Press Editorial Staff
(To read the complete article, click on the headline above)

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SPECIAL
REPORT: Ferilizer Financials
Conventional wisdom among most corn growers is that
fertilizer prices will likely head lower this spring along with crude
oil and grain prices. The unfortunate reality is that conventional
thinking is sometimes wrong.
“If grain prices have come down and oil prices have come down, then it
makes sense that fertilizer prices will come down, too. But that's not
necessarily what's happening,” says Bruce Erickson, Purdue Extension
cropping systems management director. “These factors were strongly
linked in the past, but today's situation is somewhat different.”
U.S. fertilizer prices rose sharply in 2008 due to high global demand,
and now the industry is trying to keep up, says Erickson. The best
predictor of U.S. fertilizer prices in 2009 will still be global supply
and demand, more so than crude oil or grain prices, he adds.
Prices for grain, fuel and fertilizer will continue to be sensitive to
economic conditions around the globe, says Erickson. “This year,
nutrient source is the key,” he emphasizes. “Prices for urea have
come down substantially since summer, whereas potash remains high in
price due to tight supplies.” - Corn & Soybean Digest
(To read the complete article, click on the headline above)

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'Staying
Steady' while crop prices fall is critical
The Dramatic Downturn in crop prices raises this
question: Does agriculture face the same crisis as the general economy,
or are recent market declines only a temporary setback?
Even as crop prices have faltered, forecasters say that the market
forces that have buoyed corn, soybean and wheat prices the past two
years remain strong for the long term. But in the short term, unless
crop prices recover, many farmers could face break-even budgets, at
best, as they prepare for 2009, especially on high-priced rented
ground.
“Given what some people are paying for rent, if prices fall much
further, some people could be in trouble,” says Patrick Westhoff,
co-director of the Food and Agricultural Policy Institute (FAPRI) at the
University of Missouri. - David Hest, Farm Industry News
(To read the complete article, click on the headline above)

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Buying
in a shaky market
Although Stock prices on Wall Street and major
financial markets around the world rose and fell wildly this fall,
experts say that the agricultural economy is generally in good shape.
“On the whole, balance sheets are good and producers have paid down
debt,” says Charlie O'Brien, vice president of agricultural services
for the Association of Equipment Manufacturers (AEM).
But it will take more money and credit to operate a farm in 2009. “In
today's market, credit needs are greater for operating loans in the face
of higher input costs,” says Mike Duffy, professor of agricultural
economics at Iowa State University. “With $300-plus seed corn, $1,100
anhydrous, $1,000 phosphorous and $800 potash, the numbers are shocking.
Add to that the increase in rental costs and it's easy to see the
increase in credit needs.”
Growers who have their finances in order should be able to find
available credit, but at a higher cost. - Mark Moore, Farm Industry
News
(To read the complete article, click on the headline above)

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Bio Fuel
Lines: A Blog with Lynn Grooms
Lynn Grooms blogs: "How many biomass to fuels
projects will be launched next year and beyond and what are the success
factors for getting deals done? These questions and many more will be
the subject of the Biomass Finance & Investment Summit, Jan. 26-28, at
the Westin Colonnade Hotel, Coral Gables, FL. The biomass fuels session
will feature speakers from POET, Greenfield Ethanol and Novozymes.
The conference also will feature a panel of developers of biomass to
power projects using feedstocks (e.g., poultry litter, hog and cattle
manure, wood, rice hulls and sugarcane bagasse). They will discuss
financing needs and the type of relationships they are seeking to
establish with investors and lenders.
For details about these and other sessions, contact Infocast at
818-888-4444." - Farm Industry News
(To read the complete blog, click on the headline above)

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Check out the latest corn and soybean market advice from
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