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A Penton Media Publication December 17, 2008 | Volume 8, Issue 51   
TABLE OF CONTENTS
 >> Logan Hawkes

 >> Record-setting year for soy exports

 >> Falling corn use reflects financial problems in ethanol

 >> Storage issues as acreage expands

 >> ASA board calls for checkoff program investigation

 >> United Soybean Board responds to call

 >> 'Black Gold' soil can lose its magic

 >> Triple-stack corn plantings seen up 17%

 >> National tillage experts to speak at statewide seminar

 >> ROAD WARRIOR: The Ugly Economic Numbers

 >> Storage issues as acreage expands

 >> SPECIAL REPORT: Ferilizer Financials

 >> 'Staying Steady' while crop prices fall is critical

 >> Buying in a shaky market

 >> Bio Fuel Lines: A Blog with Lynn Grooms



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  EDITOR'S NOTE
Logan Hawkes
12/17/08    Crop News Weekly
With Christmas barreling down like hot fudge on a cold Sundae, Old Man Winter has decided to blanket the nation with a chilly mid-December. I can't say it wasn't expected, but I will say it's C-O-L-D! Even in the deep sub-tropics of South Texas temps are hovering around the freezing mark. To be in a positive spirit about it, I'll just say the chilly weather may be good for the holiday spirit, but I'm sure I'd rather be fishing on the bay. I mention that because it seems so many of my friends and colleagues have told me this year that they are spending the long holiday break in exotic places like Cancun, Costa Rica, and - the topper of them all - Down Under in Australia. For them, I suppose, life is just a beach. For the remainder of us - the bone-chilled majority - let it pacify us just to hear a happy holiday season's greeting. I know, it's like getting another tie or pair of socks for Christmas, but it's all I've got for you. Oh - on a quick programming note, look for your copy of next week's issue of Crop News Weekly a day earlier than usual.

And by the way, you're real Christmas present from our staff isn't going to be ready until just after the first of the year. Crop News Weekly is undergoing a new, nifty design to make the publication more useful and informative. Don't be shocked when the first issue rolls out in a couple of weeks and arrives in your inbox chocked full of new features and a better layout. Our gift to you for the New Year: the same trusted news sources and informative features wrapped in a new layout that we hope you'll like. I think you will.

Here's some of the issues we're covering in this issue: It's been a record year for exports of U.S. soy products. Over 1.5 billion bushels of soy, valued at more than $12 billion, were exported from the United States this year. Also this week, statistics tell a troubling story for the U.S. ethanol industry. In its December 11 World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates, USDA projected lower U.S. corn use mostly due to reductions in ethanol use and corn exports. Ethanol use was projected 300 million bushels lower (7.5 percent) as prospects for blending above federally mandated levels decline. Assuming this is accurate, then consider this: In response to the ethanol industry, U.S. corn acreage has jumped. Currently, some 25 percent of the U.S. corn crop is being processed into ethanol. Since so much corn was needed for ethanol, where did the extra corn acreage come from?. These are issues we tackle this week, and many others in this weeks Crop News Weekly. Happy reading.



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  FROM OUR MAGAZINES
Record-setting year for soy exports
Over 1.5 billion bushels of soy, valued at more than $12 billion, were exported from the United States this year, according to the United Soybean Board. U.S. soybean farmers shipped out over 1.1 billion bushels of whole beans. Up 11 percent from last year were exports of soybean meal totaling 346 million bushels. Soybean oil weighed in at nearly 1.1 million metric tons with an increase of 68 percent from last year’s numbers.

“Checkoff-funded global demand-building programs have demonstrated their success with another record-setting year,” says Terry Ecker, soybean farmer from Elmo, Mo., USB International Marketing chair. “The programs work diligently to make sure that overseas customers prefer U.S. soy. The numbers prove our checkoff farmer leaders understand the importance of marketing U.S. soybeans.”

China is again the top importer of U.S. soybeans with 490 million bushels, which go toward human and animal consumption. China also imported 171,000 metric tons of soy oil from the United States, which is used as a cooking oil and other food uses. (To read the complete article, click on the headline above)

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Falling corn use reflects financial problems in ethanol
Statistics tell a troubling story for the U.S. ethanol industry. In its December 11 World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates, USDA projected lower U.S. corn use mostly due to reductions in ethanol use and corn exports. Ethanol use was projected 300 million bushels lower (7.5 percent) as prospects for blending above federally mandated levels decline, the report said.

USDA said that financial problems for ethanol producers are reducing plant capacity utilization for existing plants and delaying plant openings for those facilities still under construction. Falling gasoline prices have also resulted in high relative prices for ethanol, reducing blender incentives.

Despite reductions in expected meat production, corn feed and residual use was raised 50 million bushels as lower ethanol production reduced the availability of distiller grains. Corn exports are projected 100 million bushels lower reflecting strong competition from larger foreign grain supplies and the slow pace of sales to date. Projected ending stocks were raised 350 million bushels. - Elton Robinson, Farm Press Editorial Staff
(To read the complete article, click on the headline above)

Storage issues as acreage expands
In response to the ethanol industry, U.S. corn acreage has jumped. Currently, some 25 percent of the U.S. corn crop is being processed into ethanol. Since so much corn was needed for ethanol, where did the extra corn acreage come from?

“It came, generally, at the expense of soybeans and wheat,” said Jeffrey Berg at the recent American Society of Farm Managers and Rural Appraisers annual meeting in San Antonio (where he was named the organization’s 2008 Appraisal Specialist of the Year). Berg, who has helmed Minnesota-based agriculture appraisal company Crown Appraisals, Inc., for the last 15 years, pointed out soybeans and wheat “yield, say, 50 bushels per acre.”

The same acres, growing corn, “yield 150 to 200 bushels per acre.” That means a net storage deficit of approximately 1.5 billion bushels. As a result, farmers and elevators have been building storage “like crazy” for the last four or five years. - David Bennett, Farm Press Editorial Staff
(To read the complete article, click on the headline above)

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ASA board calls for checkoff program investigation
The American Soybean Association (ASA) Board of Directors yesterday approved calling for an Inspector General investigation of the National Soybean Checkoff Program. ASA claims serious allegations of abuse, wasteful spending and mismanagement have surfaced about how national checkoff funds and program activities are being conducted.

The ASA Board’s regularly scheduled winter meetings commenced Tuesday in St. Louis. During the meeting, board members had the opportunity to review the allegations of improper activities that have surfaced and voted unanimously on Wednesday to call for an investigation. - Corn & Soybean Digest
(To read the complete article, click on the headline above)

United Soybean Board responds to call
The allegations made by the American Soybean Association (ASA) against the United Soybean Board (USB) regarding mismanagement of farmer checkoff dollars are categorically untrue. Today, U.S. soybean farmers enjoy record demand both here and abroad for their soybeans, through the fiscally responsible efforts of the farmers who serve voluntarily on USB. If the USDA deems it necessary, USB welcomes a USDA Office of Inspector General audit of any and all of its operations, contractor operations and projects. - reported in Corn & Soybean Digest
(To read the complete article, click on the headline above)

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'Black Gold' soil can lose its magic
What makes amazing soil amazing? High organic matter, comprised largely of carbon.

The most agriculturally productive soils in the world, Mollisols, (found, for example, in Iowa and Ukraine) contain up to 3.3% carbon. Carbon is black gold. Yet, agricultural soils have lost, on average, half of their carbon due to intensive cultivation and other degradations of human origin, says Bruno Glaser, soil physics department, University of Bayreuth, Germany. - Corn & Soybean Digest
(To read the complete article, click on the headline above)

Triple-stack corn plantings seen up 17%
Triple-stack corn seeds – which enable resistance to corn borer, rootworm and herbicide – will occupy about 34-35 million acres of U.S. cropland in 2009, says Robb Fraley, a Monsanto Co. executive.

Monsanto estimates the plantings, which are projected to increase 17% over 2008, to represent about a third of the U.S. total crop. Corn yields have doubled since 1970 and are poised to double again in the next 20 years, says Robb Fraley, Monsanto's executive vice president and chief technology officer, at a Canaccord Adams agricultural industry conference in Toronto. - reported in Corn & Soybean Digest
(To read the complete article, click on the headline above)

National tillage experts to speak at statewide seminar
“Tillage, Technology & Environmental Stewardship” is the theme for the 2009 Illinois Regional Tillage Seminars, to be held in January at three locations throughout Illinois. Clay Mitchell, considered around the country to be an innovator in precision agriculture, will speak on how to manage no-till/strip-till for weed shifts and resistance, as well as the use of controlled-traffic, aligned farming systems with long-term no-till/strip-till and its effects on the soil. Mitchell farms on a 2,500-acre centennial farm in Northeast Iowa. - Corn &Soybean Digest
(To read the complete article, click on the headline above)

ROAD WARRIOR: The Ugly Economic Numbers
Dave Kohl writes: "The last time we explored one of the indicators of the health of the general economy: housing starts. Now, let’s turn our attention to another indicator that may provide insight to the direction of the economy. The Composite Leading Index (CLI) is reported monthly and is a lead indicator of the health of the economy going forward. This index has been instrumental in providing signs of the direction of the economy since World War II. In fact, it has predicted every recession since that period, but also errs on the conservative side, predicting four recessions that did not occur..." - Corn & Soybean Digest
(To read the complete article, click on the headline above)

Storage issues as acreage expands
In response to the ethanol industry, U.S. corn acreage has jumped. Currently, some 25 percent of the U.S. corn crop is being processed into ethanol. Since so much corn was needed for ethanol, where did the extra corn acreage come from? “It came, generally, at the expense of soybeans and wheat,” said Jeffrey Berg at the recent American Society of Farm Managers and Rural Appraisers annual meeting in San Antonio (where he was named the organization’s 2008 Appraisal Specialist of the Year). Berg, who has helmed Minnesota-based agriculture appraisal company Crown Appraisals, Inc., for the last 15 years, pointed out soybeans and wheat “yield, say, 50 bushels per acre.” The same acres, growing corn, “yield 150 to 200 bushels per acre.” That means a net storage deficit of approximately 1.5 billion bushels. - David Bennett, Farm Press Editorial Staff
(To read the complete article, click on the headline above)

SPECIAL REPORT: Ferilizer Financials
Conventional wisdom among most corn growers is that fertilizer prices will likely head lower this spring along with crude oil and grain prices. The unfortunate reality is that conventional thinking is sometimes wrong.

“If grain prices have come down and oil prices have come down, then it makes sense that fertilizer prices will come down, too. But that's not necessarily what's happening,” says Bruce Erickson, Purdue Extension cropping systems management director. “These factors were strongly linked in the past, but today's situation is somewhat different.”

U.S. fertilizer prices rose sharply in 2008 due to high global demand, and now the industry is trying to keep up, says Erickson. The best predictor of U.S. fertilizer prices in 2009 will still be global supply and demand, more so than crude oil or grain prices, he adds.

Prices for grain, fuel and fertilizer will continue to be sensitive to economic conditions around the globe, says Erickson. “This year, nutrient source is the key,” he emphasizes. “Prices for urea have come down substantially since summer, whereas potash remains high in price due to tight supplies.” - Corn & Soybean Digest
(To read the complete article, click on the headline above)

'Staying Steady' while crop prices fall is critical
The Dramatic Downturn in crop prices raises this question: Does agriculture face the same crisis as the general economy, or are recent market declines only a temporary setback?

Even as crop prices have faltered, forecasters say that the market forces that have buoyed corn, soybean and wheat prices the past two years remain strong for the long term. But in the short term, unless crop prices recover, many farmers could face break-even budgets, at best, as they prepare for 2009, especially on high-priced rented ground.

“Given what some people are paying for rent, if prices fall much further, some people could be in trouble,” says Patrick Westhoff, co-director of the Food and Agricultural Policy Institute (FAPRI) at the University of Missouri. - David Hest, Farm Industry News
(To read the complete article, click on the headline above)

Buying in a shaky market
Although Stock prices on Wall Street and major financial markets around the world rose and fell wildly this fall, experts say that the agricultural economy is generally in good shape. “On the whole, balance sheets are good and producers have paid down debt,” says Charlie O'Brien, vice president of agricultural services for the Association of Equipment Manufacturers (AEM).

But it will take more money and credit to operate a farm in 2009. “In today's market, credit needs are greater for operating loans in the face of higher input costs,” says Mike Duffy, professor of agricultural economics at Iowa State University. “With $300-plus seed corn, $1,100 anhydrous, $1,000 phosphorous and $800 potash, the numbers are shocking. Add to that the increase in rental costs and it's easy to see the increase in credit needs.”

Growers who have their finances in order should be able to find available credit, but at a higher cost. - Mark Moore, Farm Industry News
(To read the complete article, click on the headline above)

Bio Fuel Lines: A Blog with Lynn Grooms
Lynn Grooms blogs: "How many biomass to fuels projects will be launched next year and beyond and what are the success factors for getting deals done? These questions and many more will be the subject of the Biomass Finance & Investment Summit, Jan. 26-28, at the Westin Colonnade Hotel, Coral Gables, FL. The biomass fuels session will feature speakers from POET, Greenfield Ethanol and Novozymes.

The conference also will feature a panel of developers of biomass to power projects using feedstocks (e.g., poultry litter, hog and cattle manure, wood, rice hulls and sugarcane bagasse). They will discuss financing needs and the type of relationships they are seeking to establish with investors and lenders.

For details about these and other sessions, contact Infocast at 818-888-4444." - Farm Industry News
(To read the complete blog, click on the headline above)



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