Crop News Weekly: Rust Alert In Missouri?

I went against my better judgement last week when I mentioned we were lucky - so far - not to have seen our first tropical system in the Atlantic or Gulf this year. As quick as my fingers moved across the keyboard, I heard a small voice warning me to backspace that line away. But I knocked on wood and left it in. Now, a week later, we have had our first three tropical systems and one hurricane brewing in the Caribbean. The most impressive rains happened in northern Florida and much of the Southland, areas that perhaps didn't need all that rain in a single day. Now, as mentioned last week, the Asian rust experts will be monitoring movement of the disease in light of the wind and rain associated with Claudette. And we'll keep you posted.

We're loaded down with news and issues this week. Let's get started.

Soybean rust has been found in southeast Arkansas and west-central Mississippi, about 250 miles from southeast Missouri. Scouts in Missouri are monitoring soybean fields.

Asian soybean rust in Arkansas“Soybean rust has not been detected in Missouri this year,” said Allen Wrather, University of Missouri Extension plant pathologist at the MU Delta Center, Portageville. Wrather heads the Missouri scouting network monitoring soybean fields. “The weather during the next few weeks will greatly impact the spread of rust.”

Soybean rust, which survives on leaves of kudzu as well as soybean plants, was not active early this year in Gulf Coast states, where it is detected first during the growing season. Hot, dry weather, including severe drought in Texas, has kept the rust spores from spreading through the air. - Farm Press Editorial Staff

USDA’s Farm Service Agency will begin accepting and approving applications for farm storage loans on Monday, Aug. 17.

USDA has released notices to FSA state and county offices on the new regulations for the Farm Storage Facility Loan Program improvements authorized in the Food, Conservation and Energy Act of 2008.

“These loan changes are a great benefit to corn farmers,” National Corn Growers Association President Bob Dickey said. ”Better farm storage allows producers to improve future planning for their businesses and increasing loan length and amounts of loans will make a huge difference. Many farmers are pleased to have these new options available for their farming operations.” - National Corn Growers Association

USDA’s Aug. 12 corn crop production estimate is likely too low and forecasts for corn use and exports too high, which will add even more bearishness to corn once the information is digested by the market, according to Richard Feltes, an analyst with MF Global, speaking at a CME Group press briefing.

USDA estimated crop production for corn at 12.8 billion bushels, while corn yields were forecast at 159.5 bushels per acre. For soybeans, USDA projected production at a record 3.2 billion bushels, and soybean yields were forecast at 41.7 bushels. Ending stocks for new crop corn were estimated at 1.6 billion bushels, and for soybeans, at 210 million bushels.

In the corn estimate, Feltes noted that USDA “largely looked at stalk counts, they’re not even looking at ears. This is going to be very suggestive to the trade that the corn production number is going to continue to advance in subsequent reports, which it has done in 12 of the last 19 years.”

Feltes is “suspicious” about USDA raising corn usage by 350 million bushels over last month. “We’ll give them the edge on the ethanol, but there is no evidence that feed usage is going to go up next year, with what we’re hearing from the livestock sector.” - Elton Robinson, Farm Press Editorial Staff

Corn production is forecast at 12.8 billion bushels, up 5% from last year but 2% lower than 2007. Based on conditions as of Aug. 1, yields are expected to average 159.5 bu./acre, up 5.6 bu. from last year. If realized, this will be the second highest yield on record, behind 2004, and production will be the second largest, behind 2007.

Forecasted yields are higher than last year across the central Great Plains and western Corn Belt where mild temperatures and adequate soil moisture supplies provided favorable growing conditions. Expected yields were also higher across much of the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys and Atlantic Coast where beneficial moisture this year contrasted with exceptionally dry conditions last year.

Yield prospects are lower in the central Corn Belt where excessive spring moisture delayed planting and below normal temperatures slowed corn emergence and development. Growers expect to harvest 80.0 million acres for grain, down 100,000 acres from June but up 2% from last year. - Corn & Soybean Digest

The Renewable Fuels Association (RFA) recently asserted that the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) stacked the deck against biofuels in its process to “peer review” the agency’s indirect land use change analysis (ILUC) conducted for the Renewable Fuel Standard (RFS2) proposed rule.

The EPA recently released the much anticipated peer reviews of its lifecycle greenhouse gas (GHG) analysis and ILUC modeling conducted for the RFS2 proposed rule. Among the “peer” reviewers are several noted anti-ethanol and anti-agriculture activists, including environmental lawyer Timothy Searchinger. The politically motivated positions of Searchinger, Joseph Fargione and others with respect to ILUC have repeatedly been called into question. - Corn & Soybean Digest

Soybeans ending stock estimates are near 107 million bushels for the current crop. That is about the same as expected sales.

United States soybean carryover stocks are estimated to be the lowest since 1977. USDA says soybean ratings are 67 percent good to excellent, 55 percent is average. Soybean bloom is 86 percent of the crop. Normally soybeans have 93 percent of the crop in bloom by this week. Pod set is below average at 55 percent. Soybean yield estimates were revised down 1 bushel from 42.6 bushels per acre to 41.7 since last month.

Production estimates dropped 50 million bushels from 3.26 billion to 3.21 billion. United States ending stock estimates were revised down 40 million bushels to 210 million. World ending stock estimates are now 50.3 million tons, down 1.5 million from the previous estimate of 51.8 million tons. - Ray Nabors, Heartland Ag Network

Sign-up is under way for the new Conservation Stewardship Program, with the first sign-up period cutoff scheduled for Sept. 30.

CSP is a voluntary program that encourages agricultural and forestry producers to maintain existing conservation activities and adopt additional ones on their operations.

“This program will help the nation’s agricultural and forestry producers reach greater levels of conservation performance, which will help protect our land and water,” Agriculture Deputy Secretary Kathleen Merrigan said. - Southeast Farm Press

Charlie Stenholm and Barry Flinchbaugh don’t always agree on issues political and economic. But each agrees that Stenholm, former ranking member of the U.S. House of Representatives Agricultural Committee and a devout Democrat, and Flinchbaugh, professor of agricultural economics and farm policy at Kansas State University and a registered Independent, agree more often than not. And when they don’t, they do so in an enlightening, enthusiastic and often entertaining manner.

The two squared off recently in a good-natured debate at the annual American Agricultural Editors’ Association Ag Media Summit in Forth Worth, Texas.

Following is one in a series of articles reflecting Stenholm’s and Flinchbaugh’s views on four issues they view as critical to U.S. agriculture. The two champions of American agriculture discussed renewable fuels and climate change, WTO and bi-lateral trade agreements, the future of farm programs and farm cultural wars emerging in U.S. agriculture. - Ron Smith, Farm Press Editorial Staff

EDITOR'S NOTE

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