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Logan
Hawkes
January 30, 2008
Crop News Weekly
If you've been wondering how crop prices will
do this year compared to last -- and who hasn't -- then breath a little
easier! According to at least one analyst, crop prices for 2008 should
remain steady. Economist Bobby Coats believes soybeans, wheat and corn
will continue to show price strength as they battle for 2008 acreage.
Soybean prices are up 205 percent from their 2001 low, up 128 percent
from two years ago and up 82 percent in the past year. With luck, prices
will hold.
In other news this week, the Senate has confirmed former North Dakota
Governor Ed Schafer as Secretary of Agriculture. Schafer was confirmed
by unanimous consent, even though Congress and the administration have
differing views over a pending five-year farm bill. Members of the North
Dakota delegation had asked to move the confirmation quickly so Schafer
could attend the State of the Union address Monday night as a member of
the president's cabinet. Also this week, House Agriculture Committee
Chairman Collin Peterson (D-MN) says Congress may be forced to allow
farm programs to revert to "permanent" law if the Bush administration
remains unwilling to forge a compromise on the 2008 Farm Bill. Acting
Agriculture Secretary Chuck Conner and other USDA spokesmen have said
they will recommend President Bush veto either of the House- and
Senate-passed farm bills because both would raise taxes and neither
contains needed payment limit reforms. Elsewhere, have you made plans
yet to attend the Commodity Classic? Several educational and marketing
sessions and a trade show await corn, soybean and wheat growers this
year. The Commodity Classic is the annual convention and trade show of
the American Soybean Association (ASA), the National Corn Growers
Association (NCGA), and the National Association of Wheat Growers
(NAWG), and is scheduled for Feb. 28-March 1 in Nashville. Don't miss
it! Finally this week, farmers and agribusiness personnel discussed an
expected shortage of soybean seed for the 2008 growing season during
recent soybean meetings in the Southland. Will the shortage be felt in
the Midwest? Chances are good it will.
Read about these and other stories in this week's issue of Crop News
Weekly. Happy reading.
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Crop prices
likely to remain strong in 2008
Arkansas farmers are reaping long overdue high prices
for their crops because of a bullish global market and a national push
toward ethanol. Economist Bobby Coats doesn't see those gains being
derailed soon.
Coats, with the University of Arkansas Cooperative Extension Service,
believes soybeans, wheat and corn will continue to show price strength
as they battle for 2008 acreage. Soybean prices are up 205 percent from
their 2001 low, up 128 percent from two years ago and up 82 percent in
the past year. "Most years, I consider soybeans as complementing rice
production or being a complementary crop on a cotton farm, but with
potential soybean pricing opportunities moving toward $14 per bushel
before planting, it surely gets one's attention," Coats said. - Lamar
James, Arkansas Extension Specialist
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Easy
time for Schafer at confirmation hearing
Former North Dakota Governor Ed Schafer, nominated by
President Bush to helm the USDA, had an easy, bump-free ride during
Thursday's Senate Agriculture Committee confirmation hearing. With many
senators saying the nomination was uncontroversial, several suggested
Shafer's confirmation be put on the fast track. The confirmation hearing
for the 29th agriculture secretary was originally scheduled for Jan. 30.
However, at the urging of several North Dakota politicians, committee
chairman Tom Harkin agreed to the earlier date to allow Schafer to
attend President Bush's State of the Union address as a member of the
cabinet. Harkin said he'd try to move the nomination out of committee by
Jan. 28, the day of the Bush's address. - David Bennett, Farm Press
Editorial Staff
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When
crops compete, farmers win: USDA analyst
U.S. farmers are trying to "drive their steak and eat
it, too?" That little bit of witticism is typical of the comments grain
analysts and media commentators have been making in the ongoing debate
over the world's requirements for food-vs.-fuel. But the dynamics behind
such comments may also hold the key for a possible rebound in cotton
prices to the highest levels since March 2004, according to Carol
Skelly, fibers analyst with USDA's World Agricultural Outlook Board.
Skelly, a speaker at the Beltwide Cotton Conferences in Nashville,
Tenn., said rising energy prices and the use of agricultural commodities
-- such as corn and soybeans -- for fuel have integrated the
agricultural and energy markets. "As one soybean analyst recently said,
'You can't drive your steak and eat it, too,'" she noted. - Forrest
Laws, Farm Press Editorial Staff
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ROAD
WARRIOR: Are You a Ten?
Dave Kohl writes: "Well, I have not gone retro
on you, having images of Bo Derek who was considered a perfect 10 in the
movie. This article is about making yourself marketable to your
agrilender and being the best you can be. Let's face the facts. The
sub-prime lending crisis will ripple into agriculture. Expect more
financial documentation and information requests in this winter's
renewal season. Agrilenders will tighten collateral requirements. For
example, one major lender in the Midwest has reduced the maximum loan on
land from 80% to 60-65% of market value. By the way, in the farm crisis
years, this was as low as 50% in the Midwest..." - The Corn & Soybean
Digest
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Farm
programs may revert to permanent law
House Agriculture Committee Chairman Collin Peterson
(D-MN) says Congress may be forced to allow farm programs to revert to
"permanent" law if the Bush administration remains unwilling to forge a
compromise on the 2008 Farm Bill. Acting Agriculture Secretary Chuck
Conner and other USDA spokesmen have said they will recommend President
Bush veto either of the House- and Senate-passed farm bills because both
would raise taxes and neither contains needed payment limit reforms.
- Ther Corn & Soybean Digest
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control of the broadest spectrum of fungal diseases. Quadris not only
fights harmful soybean diseases but also enhances Plant
Performance™, increasing the potential for higher yields. For more
information on Quadris fungicide, please visit www.quadrissoybeans.com.
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Mid-South
soybeans on flat ground versus beds
Since the Mid-South largely adopted Roundup Ready
technology, farmers have moved to a reduced/no-till mentality. While
understandable, it may not be the best approach for maximizing soybean
yields. "I hear, 'I don't want to till any more than I have to. I want
to get by with as little tillage as possible and reduce inputs and save
time,'" said Dan Poston, MSU weed scientist/Northwest District soybean
specialist, at the annual Tri-State Soybean Forum in Dumas, Ark. "And
there's justification for those beliefs." Since 2006, Poston and several
of his graduate students have been conducting studies to find how much
the get-by-as-cheaply-as-we-can approach is costing growers. That's
especially important in an area of the country where drainage is such a
major issue. - David Bennett, Farm Press Editorial Staff
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Brazil
rains boost soil moisture
Heavy rains arrived over Brazil's southern and
center-west soybean states over the weekend and should continue over the
center-west into next week, independent forecaster Somar said on Monday.
The southern part of the top soy-producer state, Mato Grosso, received
ample rainfall over the weekend and will see more widespread moisture
over most of the state until Jan. 30. This could slow the initial
harvest of the new crop, which began its early stages in the first days
of the new year. - Richard Brock, The Corn & Soybean Digest
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Farm
bill conference may draw more interest this time
Morgan remembers going to meetings of the House-Senate
farm bill conference committee in 2002 and marveling at how he and the
National Cotton Council's John Maguire were the only farm group
representatives there. Morgan, the Delta Council's executive vice
president, says it's unlikely House and Senate conferees will attract so
little attention when they begin meeting on the 2008 farm bill. Instead,
it may be standing room only. "With the exception of 1985, the changes
in this farm bill will affect more farms, farm structures and farm
organizations than any farm bill since 1974," said Morgan, speaking at
the Delta Ag Expo. The administration is even looking at revising its
definition of a farmer. - Forrest Laws, Farm Press Editorial
Staff
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Commodity
Classic offers full slate of agricultural topics
Several educational and marketing sessions and a trade
show await corn, soybean and wheat growers at Commodity Classic, the
annual convention and trade show of the American Soybean Association
(ASA), the National Corn Growers Association (NCGA), and the National
Association of Wheat Growers (NAWG), to be held Feb. 28-March 1 in
Nashville, TN. - The Corn & Soybean Digest
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Soybean seed
expected to be in short supply
Farmers and agribusiness personnel discussed an
expected shortage of soybean seed for the 2008 growing season during
recent soybean meetings in central Louisiana. "This year, the shortage
of soybean seed is caused by escalating commodity prices on the world
market and the poor seed-growing conditions where seed beans are
produced in the United States," said David Lanclos, LSU AgCenter soybean
specialist. Experts say increases in the prices of soybeans and other
feed grains are caused by a worldwide shortage of commodities remaining
in storage, the increasing use of the commodities to make biofuels such
as ethanol and biodiesel, increased exports and crop shortages in other
countries. - LSU Ag Center
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Leaders
elected at annual Farm Bureau meeting
A host of grassroots leaders were elected at the 89th
American Farm Bureau Federation (AFBF) annual meeting, held recently in
New Orleans, La. For a fifth time, Bob Stallman, Columbus, Texas, was
elected president. Stallman, a cattle and rice producer, will serve the
standard two-year term. Complementing Stallman's selection, Barry Bushue
was elected AFBF vice president. Bushue, from Boring, Ore., is a nursery
and berry producer. He replaces Steve Appel, Dusty, Wash., the former
AFBF vice president. Appel, a wheat and barley producer, has retired.
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A young
soybean farmer's list of dos and don'ts
When it comes to farming, Jason Smith admits he's
often single-minded and, once he makes a decision, isn't easily
dissuaded. But, as the large crowd attending the recent Tri-State
Soybean Forum found, the flipside of the young farmer's stubborn nature
is an easy willingness to admit mistakes. That's especially true if it
means helping another producer avoid pitfalls he's encountered. "We all
have slip-ups," said Smith, who farms with his father and sister outside
Dumas, Ark. "We all know what standing water in soybeans will do, but we
still get so caught up with the crop that drainage is an area we
neglect. - David Bennett, Farm Press Editorial Staff
|
Corn
production: "Focus on big picture"
With corn prices continuing on the upswing, growers
are naturally interested in upping the ante by boosting acres and
yields. "About a year and a half ago, we were excited that the price of
corn had reached $3.50 per bushel. Now, some growers are upset they sold
corn at $3.25, so we're definitely looking at things differently," says
Chad Lee, University of Kentucky grains specialist. Futures prices for
corn are looking good, with some producers locking in corn at more than
$4 per bushel and still wondering if they pulled the trigger too soon,
says Lee. "So we have a lot of interest in the crop and tremendous
pressure from input prices, with nitrogen prices at about 50 to 55 cents
per pounds," he says. - Paul L. Hollis, Farm Press Editorial
Staff
|
Next
few weeks critical for new farm bill
Before Sen. Blanche Lincoln of Arkansas returned to
Washington for a final attempt to forge a new farm bill in Congress, she
spoke of the body's biggest challenges -- doing a lot of work in a
short amount of time and dealing with a divergence of opinion on farm
programs. Speaking at the National Conservation Systems Cotton and Rice
Conference, in Tunica, on Jan. 21, the Democrat said any consensus that
has been forged so far, "did not happen without a fight, and we haven't
finished that fight. We have to make sure that we come up with a bill
that will be balanced and represent all of the interests of all farmers.
- Elton Robinson
Farm Press Editorial Staff
|
Could
soybean market break $15?
Grain prices surged higher following USDA's Jan. 11
crop production report estimating lower ending stocks for corn and beans
and lower than expected wheat plantings. Brian Hoops, president and
senior marketing analyst, Midwest Market Solutions, speaking at the
Minneapolis Grain Exchange January press briefing on the USDA report,
said the higher prices could continue into the spring. There were no big
surprises from the previous month in USDA's estimate of crop size for
corn or soybeans, noted Hoops. - Elton Robinson, Farm Press Editorial
Staff
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Check out the latest corn and soybean market advice from
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