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Logan
Hawkes
04/02/08
Crop News Weekly
Late winter storms across much of the Midwest
have growers in a hold pattern as they continue to make plans for the
upcoming season. While Mid-south corn farmers are reporting they are
anxious to get back into the fields and continue to keep an eye toward
the skies, Southwest farmers are already busy preparing fields and soil
and many have planted seed to start the new season. As always, crop
experts are warning the nation's corn growers to not jump the gun as
early corn seedlings could easily get injured or killed by frost. But
they also warn not to plant too late as corn may pollinate in late-July
or August when it is often very hot and dry, resulting in yield
reductions - as usual, a real catch 22.
In the news this week, well before soybean planting time, the fight
against Asian soybean rust is already under way in Mississippi as
sentinel plots are planted and genetic resistance to the disease is
being developed. Rust remains a concern for bean growers, especially in
the Southland. Also of concern is the shortage of the nation’s soybean
seed supply - with no signs of loosening. Fueling the shortage are
soybean prices hovering around an all time high. Elsewhere in the news,
some early crop projections are out: Corn planted acreage down 8% from
2007; soybean acreage up 18%; all wheat acreage up 6%; all cotton
acreage down 13%. Corn growers intend to plant 86 million acres of corn
for all purposes in 2008, down 8% from last year when corn planted area
was the highest since 1944. Also this week, it has become fashionable of
late for big city reporters to beat up on ethanol and other renewable
fuels with “doomsday” articles. But a closer evaluation of the
ethanol industry indicates not all that negative press is warranted.
You'll find these and other stories in this issue of Crop News
Weekly. Thanks for stopping by.
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Ready
for 2008 soybean rust invasion
Well before planting time, the fight against Asian
soybean rust is already under way in Mississippi as sentinel plots are
planted and genetic resistance to the disease is being developed. Billy
Moore, pathologist emeritus working part-time with the rust program for
the Mississippi State University Extension Service, said Schillinger
Seeds is developing resistance to soybean rust. “In 2006, they had
fantastic resistance,” Moore said. “This past year, it looked very
good again, and we think the resistance may hold up five or six years or
longer under our conditions.” - Bonnie Coblentz, MSU Ag
Communications
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One good
shot at soybean stand
The squeeze on the nation’s soybean seed supply is
not loosening. “The seed shortage is primarily a function of supply
and demand,” says Trey Koger, Mississippi Extension soybean
specialist. “Because of soybean market prices, demand is at an
all-time high. In fact, if demand and seed availability holds up,
we’re about to plant the biggest soybean crop ever in the state.” If
seed is available, Koger predicts a Mississippi soybean acreage around
2.25 million. Add in soybeans double-cropped with wheat and the state
may hit 2.5 million acres. The tight seed supply comes after a 2007
growing season that was less than ideal in many seed-producing regions.
- David Bennett, Farm Press Editorial Staff
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Operation
strip-till gets rolling
Two north-central Iowa men put their heads together
and created an opportunity for farmers interested in trying strip-till
on their farms. Iowa Learning Farm Cooperator Dave Nelson, owner of
Brokaw Supply Company, and Doug Seltz, a Webster County Soil and Water
District commissioner, conceived a way for area producers to get their
toes wet in the strip-tilling world without taking the full plunge.
They’re calling it Operation Strip-Till. Operation Strip-Till is the
coordination of a leased tractor, strip-till machine and two equipment
operators. The strip-till machine will match up with either 12- or
16-row planter sizes, will be equipped for fall application of anhydrous
and dry fertilizer and will use GPS auto-steer so rows will be straight
for spring 2009 planting. For a fee (to cover equipment rental only),
farmers can have a portion of their acres strip-tilled. - The Corn &
Soybean Digest
|
Prospective
plantings
Corn planted acreage down 8% from 2007; soybean
acreage up 18%; all wheat acreage up 6%; all cotton acreage down 13%.
Corn growers intend to plant 86 million acres of corn for all purposes
in 2008, down 8% from last year when corn planted area was the highest
since 1944. Expected acreage is down from last year in most states as
favorable prices for other crops, high input costs for corn and crop
rotation considerations are motivating some farmers to plant fewer acres
to corn. Despite the decrease, corn acreage is expected to remain at
historically high levels as the corn price outlook remains strong due in
part to the continued expansion in ethanol production. - The Corn &
Soybean Digest
|
More
beans, less cotton and corn in 2008
U.S. producers, taken aback by high nitrogen costs and
spurred on by good soybean prices, intend to plant 18 percent more
soybean acres this spring, according to USDA’s March 31 Prospective
Plantings Report. The higher acreage comes mostly at the expense of
corn, down 8 percent from last year. Cotton plantings for 2008 are
expected to total 9.39 million acres, 13 percent below last year.
Acreage is expected to decline in every Mid-South state — Arkansas,
from 860,000 acres to 650,000 acres; Mississippi, from 660,000 acres to
420,000 acres; Tennessee, from 515,000 acres to 310,000 acres; Missouri,
from 380,000 acres to 300,000 acres, and Louisiana, from 335,000 acres
to 280,000 acres. - Elton Robinson, Farm Press Editorial Staff
|
Controlling
soybean Asian rust
In the coastal areas southwest of New Orleans, La.,
Asian soybean rust is likely to pop up anywhere each and every spring.
It’s up to Blaine Viator, a Plattenville, La., consultant, to make
sure that the disease does not cause economic damage for his clients.
Viator, speaking at the National Alliance of Independent Crop
Consultants annual meeting in Seattle says soybean production plays an
important second fiddle to sugarcane in Iberia Parish, where Viator
consults. Over the years, sugarcane producers have learned that planting
Roundup Ready beans once every four to five years can control the weeds
that crop up in sugarcane. While Asian soybean rust is a concern here,
it’s only one of several diseases that threaten soybean production.
Others include pod and stem diseases and frogeye leaf spot. - Elton
Robinson, Farm Press Editorial Staff
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Lincoln:
The coming farm bill
As a member of the Senate Agriculture Committee —
and chair of the Production, Income Protection and Price Support
Subcommittee — Arkansas Sen. Blanche Lincoln has been in the thick of
crafting a new farm bill. When she spoke with Delta Farm Press on March
20, the Democrat expressed frustration with the seeming “snail’s
pace” in the bill’s final phase of deal making. However, she said
good legislation was still possible by mid-April. Among her comments: On
hearing from farmers/lenders nervous about the situation. - David
Bennett, Farm Press Editorial Staff
|
And now
for the rest of the ethanol story
It has become fashionable of late for big city
reporters to beat up on ethanol and other renewable fuels with
“doomsday” articles. (Ever notice how the national media seem to
travel in packs on these?) In the stories, corn- or grain-based ethanol
is often criticized for causing: (1) rising food prices and resulting
shortfalls in food aid programs, (2) less fuel efficiency compared to
petroleum fuels, (3) the use of more energy to produce than it produces
and (4) increased emissions of certain pollutants. Scientists are
refuting many of the claims, including rejection of ideas ethanol is a
net-loss when it comes to energy savings by none other than researchers
for the National Resources Defense Council. - Forrest Laws, Farm
Press Editorial Staff
|
Fuel
data shows ethanol's cost savings for consumers
The availability of ethanol is currently reducing the
cost of gasoline by between 6 and 9¢/gal., according to data collected
by the American Coalition for Ethanol (ACE). “The growing availability
of ethanol across the United States is reducing the cost of gasoline by
up to 9¢/gal.,” says Brian Jennings, executive vice president of ACE.
“While gas prices are still causing pain at the pump, ethanol is
alleviating some of the pressure of $100 oil. Without ethanol, gas
prices would likely be even higher.” - The Corn & Soybean
Digest
|
Schafer:
Farm bill could be done in weeks
The differences remaining between the Bush
administration and Congress in the 2007 farm bill could be worked out
within the next few weeks, predicts Agriculture Secretary Ed Schafer.
“The farm bill now on the table has a lot to offer,” Schafer said.
“It moves us forward in conservation, nutrition, research, specialty
crops, and renewable energy. I’m continually optimistic that within
the next few weeks we’ll be able to craft a bill that will be
workable.” Speaking to wildlife and natural resources enthusiasts in
Phoenix, Ariz. on March 26, Schafer said the Bush administration and
Congress have placed numerous ideas on the table during the 2007 farm
bill development process. The original USDA farm bill plan supported
$4.5 billion in increased spending over the baseline recommendation (the
amount if the current law was extended with no changes). - Cary
Blake, Farm Press Editorial Staff
|
Important
upcoming USDA reports
The most important of three upcoming USDA reports in
terms of crop prices may be the Prospective Plantings report, says
Darrel Good, University of Illinois Extension marketing specialist.
"Expectations for planting intentions seem to be centering around 87
million acres for corn and 71-72 million acres for soybeans," says Good.
"That estimate compares to 2007 acreage of 93.6 million and 63.63
million, respectively. Intentions for spring wheat are expected to
exceed last year's seedings." The planting intentions estimate will
provide a benchmark for anticipating actual plantings. - Bob Sampson,
The Corn & Soybean Digest
|
Soil
compaction challenges may crop up this spring
Cool, wet weather conditions are expected to continue
this spring, which may result in stand establishment and soil compaction
concerns for many Hoosier farmers, says Corey Gerber, director of the
Purdue Crop Diagnostic Training and Research Center at Purdue
University. “Typically, those farmers who need to prepare ground for
the planting season are in the fields about now, but not this year,”
says Gerber. “It’s just too wet. With these wet conditions, either
on ground needing spring tillage or on no-till ground, farmers may be
left with the decision of getting seed into the ground at the risk of
soil compaction.” - The Corn & Soybean Digest
|
Expert
advises farmers: Plant corn in uncommitted fields
NOTE: This is what Chris Hurt expects to come from the
USDA Prospective Plantings report scheduled for release on Monday. The
market incentives all winter have been telling farmers to plant more
soybeans, but we have seen a reversal in the new crop futures, says
Chris Hurt, a Purdue University Extension agricultural economist. “The
March 31 Prospective Plantings report is going to suggest that producers
are going to plant less corn and in fact that may be bullish to corn,”
says Hurt. “During the last three weeks, market prices for corn have
actually increased the incentive to raise corn as soybean prices dropped
more sharply.” Hurt predicts when this is all pulled together, the
report will be bullish to corn with surprisingly low acres and in
response expects to see a rally. - The Corn & Soybean Digest
|
Argentine
farm strike continues
The two sides in the Argentine farm strike appear to
be digging in their heels as the protest enters its third week.
Transportation into the nation’s main export ports has been blocked,
with only a handful of trucks delivering grain each day. With the
exception of milk and other highly perishable food items, the strike has
virtually brought Argentina’s agricultural trade to a halt. Consumer
groups are now starting to protest growing food shortages. - Richard
Brock, The Corn & Soybean Digest
|
THIESSE'S
THOUGHTS: Grain markets tumble
Grain marketing in this highly volatile marketing
environment continues to be a big challenge for farm operators. Many
grain producers are coming off a very profitable year in 2007; however,
there is still a considerable amount of 2007 corn and soybeans that is
not priced. Many farm operators have also taken advantage of some very
favorable grain prices in recent months to forward price a significant
amount of the anticipated 2008 corn and soybean production, and even
some projected 2009 production. However, making grain marketing
decisions beyond 2008 can be very difficult without knowing what input
costs and land-rental rates will be, and now the strategies available to
producers for forward pricing grain may be changing. - Kent Thiesse,
The Corn & Soybean Digest
|
Fair
weather economics in agriculture
Road Warrior Dave Kohl writes: - "Did you see
this commodity boom coming to agriculture? This is a common question
asked as I travel the continent as the Road Warrior of Agriculture. The
answer is: “Absolutely not.” Historically, commodity agriculture has
operated by the two-in-10-year rule. That is, two out of every 10 years
weather and market conditions align for huge profits and prosperity –
even for the marginal manager. This time the two-in-10-year rule has
been extended. The next question might be, “Is this the new normal?”
To answer this, lets examine the ingredients for fair-weather economics
in agriculture. - The Corn & Soybean Digest
|
Ag
role in fuels production still being defined
The investment now taking place in alternative energy
sources “is phenomenal,” but agriculture’s role in that picture is
still being determined, says Kater Hake, Cotton Incorporated vice
president for agricultural research. “With the help of science and
improved technology, U.S. agriculture has done a great job of steadily
increasing its productivity and output,” he told members of the
Southern Cotton Ginners Association at their annual meeting at Memphis.
“It has kept pace with the food and fiber demand of a growing
population — but not with energy demand. “Agriculture’s role in
providing fuel is one of the key challenges facing us today, and a major
uncertainty in the energy picture is ethanol. While it’s great for
beer and other products, it has some serious limitations in terms of use
in automobiles.” Other biofuels and other energy forms may hold
greater promise, Hake said. - Hembree Brandon, Farm Press Editorial
Staff
|
Corn
farmers anxious to get back into fields
Recent rains and flooding have many Arkansas farmers
cooling their heels. They would like to be preparing their land for
planting corn, but weather-related problems have delayed tillage
operations. Much of the ground preparation would have been taken care of
in the fall, but unfavorable weather conditions then conspired to cut
that short, according to Jason Kelley, Extension agronomist/wheat and
feed grains for the University of Arkansas Division of Agriculture. In
spring of 2007, farmers had planted 45 percent of the corn crop by March
25, compared to the five-year average of 14 percent. Kelley figures 5
percent or less of the crop will have been planted on March 25 this
year. - Lamar James, Arkansas Extension Specialist
|
Growers
asked to make every acre count
U.S. farmers could plant fewer acres of corn than in
2007 but more acres than analysts are expecting them to put in the
ground in 2008, the president of the National Corn Growers Association
said. Ron Litterer, NCGA president and a corn, soybean and hog farmer
from Greene, Iowa, participated in a panel featuring the three
presidents of the National Corn Growers, the American Soybean
Association and the National Association of Wheat Growers the commodity
organizations that came together for this year’s Commodity Classic in
Nashville, Tenn. - Forrest Laws, Farm Press Editorial Staff
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