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Market Preview
Ag Secretary
Schafer Disappoints
Wednesday was a disappointing day for livestock feeders
as the USDA once again turned its back on helping reduce the huge
increase in livestock production costs. Secretary of Agriculture Ed
Schafer announced that USDA would not allow penalty-free withdrawal of
acres from the Conservation Reserve Program (CRP).
Schafer cited the recent fall of corn and soybean prices and the
improving crop conditions as factors in his decision. “The strength
and commitment of America’s farmers have made to meet the nation’s
need for corn for food, feed and fuel have reassured the markets that
there will be adequate supply available this year,” he added. Shafer
also cited USDA’s decision to allow haying and foraging on 24 million
CRP acres after the primary nesting season expires.
I’m sorry to be so cynical, but I would have thought that the
Secretary of Agriculture could have figured out that releasing CRP acres
now will do nothing for this year’s crop. Further, according to my
nutrition classes, more hay will do little if anything to help
non-ruminants. Finally, the secretary is correct that this year’s
corn supply looks better and may be large enough to keep prices lower
than once feared. But, shouldn’t government officials be looking a bit
further ahead?
The most recent data I have seen from Iowa State’s Center for
Agricultural and Rural Development suggest that we will have enough
ethanol capacity to use corn at an annual rate of over 5.3 billion
bushels per year by late 2009. That is nearly 1.5 billion bushels more
than USDA is forecasting for the 2008-2009-crop year. While more acres
will very likely be planted to corn next year, rising input costs that
may drive corn planting cost to $600 or more will limit that growth.
In light of this decision, input cost risk will remain quite high
through 2009-2010.
COOL Labeling Rules
USDA also released this week an interim final rule for mandatory
country-of-origin labeling (COOL). The highlights include:
- It does not apply to covered commodities produced and
packaged before Sept. 30, 2008.
- Animals in the United States on or before July 15, 2008, that
remain in the United States will be considered of U.S. origin.
- Foodservice establishments and processed food items are exempted
from labeling. Examples include meatloaf, meatballs, fabricated steak,
breaded veal cutlets, corned beef, sausage, breaded chicken tenders and
teriyaki-flavored pork loin.
- Labeling rules regarding ground meat require listing all countries
of origin that may be reasonably contained.
- Records must be maintained for one year and available within five
days if requested by a USDA representative.
- Slaughter facilities must possess or have legal access to records
that substantiate their origin claims. A producer affidavit will be
considered acceptable evidence as long as it is provided by someone
having firsthand knowledge of the animals' origin and identifies the
animals unique to the transaction.
- The labeling requirement provides packers the flexibility to label
animals born, raised and/or slaughtered in the United States, but not
imported for direct slaughter, as “product of the U.S.,” and any
other country in which the animal was either born or raised.
- To label product as “product of the United States,” it must
come from animals born, raised and slaughtered in the United States.
The total first-year implementation costs of COOL for all directly
affected firms are estimated to be $2.5 billion. USDA’s breakdown is
$376 for each producer, $53,948 each for intermediaries and $235,551
each for retailers.
Price Rally Continues
Pork cutout values and hog prices continued to rally last week –
cutout values to year-long highs and hog prices quite near the yearly
high. The two major drivers have been ham prices (near $90/cwt.) and
72% trimmings ($73/cwt.). Both cuts are usually driven by exports at
this time of year. Whatever the source, we’ll take it!
NOTE: Our normal Production and Price Data tables are not included in
today’s North American Preview due to some technical difficulties.
We apologize and certainly hope that the computers will be healed by
next week!

Click to view graphs.
Steve R. Meyer, Ph.D.
Paragon Economics, Inc.
e-mail: steve@paragoneconomics.com
Make ileitis disappear?
Denagard® (tiamulin) 10 is approved to control ileitis in as little
as 10 days. And with its small dosage – 35 grams tiamulin/ton – and
less medication time, no other feed medication is as cost-effective for
controlling ileitis.

Click
on the Denagard logo to learn more.
Swine Health Preview
Disease Monitoring
Helps Ensure Export Market Access
It’s no secret that pork exports are having a big
impact on the value of pigs marketed in the United States. U.S. pork’s
growing share of the global market is a major reason for good market
prices despite record production levels.
Pork exports are expected to continue to climb unless current market
forces change dramatically, such as a significant increase in the value
of the U.S. dollar or a major disease outbreak sufficient to affect
export markets occurs. The value of U.S. currency is a topic for others
to cover, so I’ll focus on discussing the importance of disease
monitoring.
Trading partners ask two questions about the health status of the
national herd:
- Which diseases do your pigs have?
- How do you know?
The answers to those questions involve reporting both the test results
and the disease testing strategy. First, reporting has to be transparent
and routine, so trading partners have confidence in the information.
Second, testing has to be sufficient to convince our trading partners
that we have conducted adequate testing to detect diseases if they are
here and robust enough for early detection of a disease if it were to
get into the country.
Transparent, Regular Reporting
Routine diagnostic reporting is organized through the National Animal
Health Reporting System (NAHRS) (www.aphis.usda.gov/vs/ceah/ncahs/nahrs/).
The system is a collaborative effort made up of the American Association
of Veterinary Laboratory Diagnosticians, the U.S. Animal Health
Association and the USDA’s Animal & Plant Health Inspection Service
(APHIS).
Diagnostic laboratories and state animal health officials send monthly
disease status reports to NAHRS, which reports results to the World
Organization for Animal Health (OIE) (www.oie.int/eng/en_index.htm).
Twenty swine diseases are reportable to the OIE (see table below),
including diseases commonly found in the United States (i.e. PRRS
virus), as well as exotic diseases never seen here (i.e. Nipah virus). A
profile of the Nipah virus can be found at: www.cidrap.umn.edu/cidrap/content/biosecurity/ag-biosec/anim-disease/nipah.html.
Transparency is important, but it comes at a cost. Some countries voiced
concerns when we reported another round of new PRRS virus strains last
year, even though the virus and circumstances were very different from
the situation in China.
'Absence of Evidence is not Evidence of Absence'
The quote, above, attributed to astronomer Carl Sagan, seems to fit this
discussion. It’s not enough to report on whether or not we managed to
diagnose a reportable disease. We also need to demonstrate to our
trading partners that sufficient testing has been done to detect the
disease if it were present.
An example is the extensive testing for bovine spongiform encephalopathy
(BSE or Mad Cow Disease) that has been running in the United States
since 2005 (see U.S. Food & Drug Administration site, www.fda.gov/oc/opacom/hottopics/bse.html).
Over half a million cattle were tested in 2006 alone.
In the pig world, an ongoing surveillance program has been in place for
pseudorabies (PRV) since the end of the eradication program, primarily
using slaughter surveillance.
The second part of a testing program is a targeted surveillance program
designed for early detection of a disease if it gets into the country.
For Classical Swine Fever (CSF), for example, higher risk areas have
been identified based on increased risk of contact with countries with
endemic CSF due to proximity or travel patterns (see www.aasv.org/aasv/documents/GotTonsil.pdf).
Testing for CSF is coordinated through the USDA National Animal Health
Laboratory Network (NAHLN; see www.aphis.usda.gov/animal_health/nahln/).
A network of 38 state and university diagnostic labs participates in the
CSF surveillance-testing program. (See list at www.aphis.usda.gov/animal_health/nahln/downloads/csf_lab_list.pdf).
Diagnostic laboratories in Iowa and Minnesota also select samples from
submitted diagnostic cases for CSF screening. In addition to improving
the chances for early detection, running the tests routinely on
surveillance cases keeps the labs in practice in case large-scale
testing is needed in the event of an outbreak.
While astute producers and accredited veterinarians remain the first
line of defense for detecting significant disease outbreaks, the ongoing
national surveillance system and the network of diagnostic laboratories
helps assure our trading partners that we are a trusted source for
quality pork.
| Swine diseases tracked by OIE: |
| African Swine Fever |
| Anthrax (Bacillus anthracis) |
| Aujesky's Disease (Pseudorabies) |
| Classical Swine Fever (Hog Cholera) |
| Cysticercosis (Cysteicercus cellulosae) |
| Echinococcosis/Hydatidosis |
| Foot-and-Mouth Disease |
| Japanese Encephalitis |
| Leptospirosis |
| New and Old World Screwworm |
| Nipah Virus Encephalitis |
| Porcine Brucellosis (Brucella suis) |
| Porcine Reproductive & Respiratory Syndrome
(PRRS) |
| Rabies |
| Rinderpest |
| Transmissible Gastroenteritis (TGE) |
| Trichinellosis (Trichinell spiralis) |
| Tularemia (Francisella tularensis) |
| Vesicular Stomatitis Indiana |
| Vesicular Stomatitis New Jersey |
Jerry Torrison, DVM
University of Minnesota Veterinary Diagnostic Laboratory
torri001@umn.edu
New to the Team. Veteran of the Game.
Fast-acting Baytril® 100 (enrofloxacin) is approved for treatment
and control of swine respiratory disease. When a proven winner joins an
already great team, the results are phenomenal. So Bayer Animal Health
is proud to offer Baytril 100 for treatment and control of swine
respiratory disease (SRD) in all phases of production. For use by or on
the order of a licensed veterinarian. Swine intended for human
consumption must not be slaughtered within 5 days of receiving a single
injection dose.

Click on the Baytril 100 logo for more information.
Legislative Preview
Interim COOL Rule
Released
USDA issued an interim final rule for the implementation
of the mandatory country-of-origin labeling (COOL) program to become
effective Sept. 30. The rule covers muscle cuts and ground beef
(including veal), lamb, chicken, goat and pork; perishable agricultural
commodities (fresh and frozen fruits and vegetables); macadamia nuts;
pecans; ginseng and peanuts. Commodities covered under COOL must be
labeled at retail to indicate their country of origin. Beef, lamb,
pork, goat and chicken products that are muscle cuts, and other covered
commodities, will fall into one of four categories: 1) product of the
United States; 2) multiple countries-of-origin; 3) imported for
immediate slaughter; and 4) covered commodity that is foreign
country-of-origin.
House Passes ADUFA — The House of Representatives passed by
voice vote H.R. 6432, the Animal Drug User Fee Act (ADUFA). This
legislation reauthorizes the Food and Drug Administration (FDA) to
collect fees from the animal health industry to be used for the review
and approval of animal health products. The fees supplement FDA’s
congressional appropriations to provide for more timely review of new
animal drugs. Since ADUFA was originally passed in 2003, FDA has been
able to reduce its review time for new animal drugs. This has allowed
new drugs to enter the marketplace quicker while maintaining high
standards for safety and effectiveness. The bill now goes to the Senate
for consideration. ADUFA expires on Sept. 30. The legislation is a
priority of the livestock and animal health industries.
What’s Driving Food Prices? — The Farm Foundation recently
released a paper, “What’s Driving Food Prices?” to assess the
forces driving food prices. According to the paper, there are three
broad sets of forces driving food price increases: 1) global changes in
production and consumption by key countries, 2) the depreciation of the
U.S. dollar, and 3) growth in the production of biofuels. The paper
said that the ethanol blender credit, tariff and Renewable Fuel Standard
are factors causing increased corn price, “but quantitatively, most of
the increase has been driven by higher oil prices.” Staff of Purdue
University completed the paper.
USDA Renews PRRS Project — USDA’s Cooperative State
Research, Education and Extension Service (CSREES) has renewed funding
of $4.8 million for the Porcine Reproductive and Respiratory Syndrome
(PRRS) Coordinated Agricultural Project (CAP). USDA said, “A new
strain of highly pathogenic PRRS has been found in China and Vietnam and
is implicated as the primary cause of Porcine High Fever Disease,
resulting in the death of large numbers of swine. Renewal of the PRRS
project responds to the urgent need to make sure the right tools are
available to keep this foreign strain from affecting the U.S. swine
industry.” It is estimated PRRS affects 60% of U.S. swine herds and
costs the swine industry $580 million annually.
No “Early Out” for CRP — Secretary of Agriculture Ed
Schafer announced that USDA would not allow early out for Conservation
Reserve Program (CRP) contracts without penalty. Schafer indicated that
market conditions have improved and that acreage was exiting CRP through
normal maturities. According to USDA, there are 1.15 million acres of
CRP that mature as of Sept. 30, 2008, and 3.855 million acres will
mature on Sept. 30, 2009. The National Pork Producers Council (NPPC)
indicated its disappointment with the secretary’s decision, stating,
“We are cutting back our swine herd and production by as much as 10%
over the next several months, and even then we will need more acres and
more corn in 2009 to meet the demands of ethanol producers and other
users and to feed this smaller herd. Without these CRP acres, which can
be responsibly farmed using today’s modern techniques to prevent soil
erosion and protect the environment, we will have no ability to grow our
industry to respond to worldwide demand. Pork producers are deeply
disappointed by USDA’s short-sighted decision.” Senator Tom Harkin
(D-IA), chairman of the Senate Agriculture Committee, supports USDA’s
decision and said, “After the spring and early summer disasters
throughout the Midwest, USDA rightly allowed emergency use of CRP land
for grazing. I believe Secretary Schafer has drawn a sound distinction
between that emergency access vs. offering an option for CRP contract
holders, unilaterally, to cancel their contracts and put land back into
crop production without any penalties or interest.”
Judge Allows CRP Haying and Grazing — The U.S. District Court
in Seattle ruled last week to allow haying and grazing for producers
with approved Conservation Reserve Program (CRP) contracts. Those
producers who have submitted applications but have not heard from USDA
will have their applications processed. If approved, they may make hay
until Sept. 30 or graze until Oct. 15. The ruling replaces a temporary
restraining order initiated on July 8.
Record Federal Deficit — The Bush administration announced
this week that this fiscal year would set a record for national debt at
$482 billion. The previous record was $413 billion for fiscal year
2004.
P. Scott Shearer
Vice President
Bockorny Group
Washington, D.C.
Introducing the new PIC Camborough® Family
You asked for greater lifetime reproductive performance and longevity.
You asked for more pounds of pork marketed per sow. You asked for a
higher percentage of market pigs in the full-value pay box.
Take another look at our new Camborough family, we think you will like
what you see--after all, it is just what you asked for.
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Pork Industry Calendar
Aug. 8, 2008: Swine Farrowing Training
Course (presented in Spanish), St. James, MN; contact: Mark Whitney,
(507) 389-5541, whitn007@umn.edu
or click on www.extension.umn.edu/swine.
Aug. 12, 2008: Hog Margin Maker Risk Management
Workshop, Carroll County Extension Office at Carroll, IA; contact:
(712) 792-2364.
Click
here to get National Hog Farmer's complete pork
industry calendar.
Swine Disease Control Made Easy. Introducing Ingelvac MycoFLEX®.
Call Boehringer Ingelheim at 1-800-325-9167
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