What's new on National Hog Farmer?
- World
Pork Expo 2008 New Product Tour
- Neonatal
Scours Test Producers'
Patience
- National
Pork Board Names New Chief Executive Officer
- How
Can More Pork End Up Being Less?
- Current Issue:
World Pork Expo Product Tour
NationalHogFarmer.com
|
About This Newsletter
|
Send Comments & Questions To
Dale Miller, Editor,
National Hog Farmer
To unsubscribe from this newsletter go to: Unsubscribe
To subscribe to this newsletter, go to: Subscribe
|
|
Market Preview
Markets' Ebbs and
Flows Remain Baffling
My grandfather had a great saying for those things he
considered unusual: “I’ve been to two county fairs and three goat
ropings and I ain’t never seen nothing like this.” Amen, Ervin.
Amen.
If Ervin Rice was an economist instead of a hard-working roughneck,
driller and tool pusher (those are oilfield jobs, in case you were
wondering), he would say the same about the hog market this year. The
ebbs and flows of costs and prices have been unprecedented.
Just last week in this column, I was trumpeting the achievement of a new
record-high hog price. Prices have now fallen this week by about
$17/cwt., carcass (see Figure 1), before stabilizing. Last week a
caller asked me to explain this drop in hog prices and my response was,
“I couldn’t explain the increase, so I feel no responsibility to
explain the decline!” But I have to give it a shot.
These price changes are not related to hog slaughter. Weights are
running 4 lb. lower than last year, but they did not increase over the
past two weeks, so one can’t explain the decline with heavy hogs
either. In fact, I do not see a supply variable (including sow
slaughter) that would have much impact.
So it must be demand. And you have read about the vacuum that exists
when it comes to timely demand data. Every piece of anecdotal evidence
points to a huge upward run on exports and then an abrupt halt. The
fact that trimmings and hams led the upward charge in cutout value
suggests exports.
Russia is frequently a player in the trimmings market and Mexico has
been a big factor in the summer ham market for several years. And, lo
and behold, there are now trade issues with both of them.
I don’t believe it is a coincidence that trimmings ran up just before
Russia announced export reductions. Mexico is not happy about USDA’s
Food Safety and Inspection Service (FSIS) finding that 19 Mexican plants
did not meet U.S. standards. Mexico voluntarily stopped shipments from
those plants and now there are scattered reports that loads of U.S. pork
are being denied entry into Mexico. There is nothing official in those
actions, but U.S. packers are increasingly concerned.
So exports giveth and exports taketh away. Such will be life when we
depend on exports for a substantial portion of our well-being. Exports
accounted for 21.5% of production in April and 26.5% in both May and
June – over one of every four pounds produced. Any little glitches
will be important. We have probably seen that recently but, due to the
lag of pork export data, we will not know what happened in August until
October.
Profit Prospects
Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) Group Lean Hog futures prices have
declined along with the cash market. The roughly $7 decline in hog
futures has more than offset the decline in both corn and soybean meal
to leave the profit prospect for 2009 at their lowest levels since July
1 (see Figure 2). My forecasts for costs and prices show only three
profitable months next year and some losses of near $40/head this fall.
Will those provide enough incentive to reduce the sow herd more? It
hasn’t yet, but it certainly could. I expect only a 2% decline for
the U.S. breeding herd when the quarterly Hogs and Pigs Report is
released on Sept. 26. If that is the size of the reduction, slaughter
numbers in 2009 will not be much lower than those of 2008. Imports from
Canada will be lower, but productivity increases will provide plenty of
pigs.
Click to view graphs.
Steve R. Meyer, Ph.D.
Paragon Economics, Inc.
e-mail: steve@paragoneconomics.com
Introducing the new PIC Camborough® Family
You asked for greater lifetime reproductive performance and longevity.
You asked for more pounds of pork marketed per sow. You asked for a
higher percentage of market pigs in the full-value pay box.
Take another look at our new Camborough family, we think you will like
what you see--after all, it is just what you asked for.
www.pic.com/usa
Production Preview
Watch
Weaning-to-Estrus Intervals
One of the greatest influences on weaning-to-estrus
interval is the management of sows during lactation. During this time,
the reproductive organs have a chance to recover from their previous
pregnancy.
It is well established that levels of reproductive hormones in the brain
that stimulate estrus and ovulation are very low immediately after
farrowing. Most research studies have shown that between 12 and 16 days
are required for the levels of these hormones to be replenished.
Lactation plays a critical role in this recovery process because the
suckling action of the piglets serves to keep the sow’s brain in a
state of quiescence and the secretion of the reproductive hormones at
very low levels.
At weaning, the suckling-induced inhibition of these hormones is gone;
if they have been replenished sufficiently, then estrus and ovulation
should occur within four to eight days. If they haven’t, then the
rebreeding interval will be extended or, perhaps, a postweaning estrus
may not occur at all.
From a management perspective, weaning-to-estrus intervals present the
first opportunity for producers to evaluate how well sows have recovered
from their previous pregnancy. It also is a good opportunity to
determine how well management during lactation has aided this process.
The general assumption is that if sows return to estrus within eight
days after weaning, then their recovery is complete. If the rebreeding
interval is longer, then their recovery wasn’t quite finished when
weaning occurred and their subsequent reproductive performance may be
compromised.
A recent analysis of adjusted farrowing rates and number of pigs born
alive based on a farm’s average weaning-to-estrus interval seems to
support this assertion (Table 1). Farms with weaning-to-estrus intervals
of less than eight days averaged between 10.9 and 11.0 pigs born alive.
In contrast, farms with weaning-to-estrus intervals of eight days or
more averaged about 0.5 pigs less per litter.
| |
Weaning-to-Estrus
Interval (days) |
|
Farrowing Rate
(%) | |
Number of Pigs
Born Alive | |
| | < 5.9
(21 farms) |
| 84.0 + 1.4 |
| 11.0 + 0.1 |
| | 6.0 – 6.9
(40 farms) |
| 83.9 + 1.0 |
| 10.9 + 0.1 |
| | 7.0 – 7.9
(18 farms) |
| 82.0 + 1.4 |
| 10.9 + 0.1 |
| | 8.0 – 8.9
(13 farms) |
| 80.8 + 1.5 |
| 10.4 + 0.2 |
| | 9.0 – 9.9
(6 farms) |
| 79.3 + 2.5 |
| 10.3 + 0.3 |
| | > 10.0
(8 farms) |
| 74.7 + 4.1 |
| 10.4 + 0.3 |
The relationship between weaning-to-estrus intervals and farrowing rate
was less clear. However, there was a general trend for farrowing rates
to decrease as the weaning-to-estrus intervals increased.
If a herd has an extended rebreeding interval, then there are several
areas associated with lactation management that should be examined. The
most obvious is feed intake during lactation. It has been well
documented that nutritional management during lactation has a
significant impact on subsequent reproductive performance of sows.
Lactation is a period in which the sow is under an enormous amount of
metabolic stress. It has been estimated that about 75% of the nutrients
that a sow consumes during peak lactation goes to support production of
milk for her litter. Consequently, it is quite common and actually
normal for sows to have to mobilize protein and fat to meet the
metabolic demands of lactation. When this happens, the sow loses weight
and body tissues. If she loses too much body condition during lactation,
her subsequent reproductive performance, postweaning, can suffer. As a
result, rebreeding intervals, subsequent farrowing rate and litter size
can all be affected. Anything that can be done to increase feed intake
during lactation should help improve weaning-to-estrus intervals.
Another area that can influence the weaning-to-estrus interval is
lactation length. As mentioned earlier, the brain needs time to
replenish reproductive hormones after farrowing. If sows are weaned
before these levels are established, then suboptimal amounts are
released. This creates a situation in which sows would probably show a
delayed estrus and ovulate a lower-than-normal number of eggs. Recovery
of the brain and replenishment of these hormones is also sensitive to
the metabolic demands of lactation. Consequently, if excessive amounts
of body tissue are lost during lactation, then recovery can take longer
than the normal 12 to 16 days. Collectively, lactation lengths of less
than 16 days often are not conducive for optimizing the subsequent
reproductive performance of sows.
Finally, split or partial weaning strategies can contribute to problems
with extended rebreeding intervals. It is important to remember that
whenever pigs are removed, the suckling stimulation is reduced. If
enough pigs are removed, there could be a high enough reduction in the
suckling intensity that the suppression of the endocrine system caused
by suckling is removed and the sow may begin normal reproductive
activity. What happens in many situations with split weaning is that the
largest pigs in the litter are weaned two to three days before the rest
of the litter. If enough piglets are removed from the sow at this time,
then from a physiological perspective, she thinks the entire litter has
been weaned. If this occurred on Day 16, then the reproductive
consequences are similar to those that occur with early weaning.
As we’ve pointed out, management is the key to maximizing
wean-to-estrus intervals. Keeping the needs of the sow herd as a top
priority will help you make the necessary changes to improve this
important production parameter.
W.L. (Billy) Flowers
Editor’s Note: Dr. Flowers is a professor in the Animal Science
Department at North Carolina State University with a 50% teaching and
50% research appointment in swine reproductive physiology.
Legislative Preview
Change COOL
In a letter to Secretary of Agriculture Ed Schafer, Sen.
John Tester (D-MT) asked USDA to make a correction in its proposed
country-of-origin labeling (COOL) rules before they go into effect the
end of this month. Tester’s concern is the provision that allows meat
products be labeled with multiple country-of-origin labels. Senator
Tester wrote, “Multiple country-of-origin labels were reserved for
meat products that were not exclusively born, raised or
slaughtered in the United States, or for ground meat products. However,
under the Interim Final Rule, labeling of muscle cuts becomes an option,
not a requirement for the meat packing companies. Under these rules
meatpackers will be encouraged to choose their cheapest and easiest
option: labeling products with multiple countries of origin. This gives
consumers the impression that there is no domestically born, raised and
slaughtered livestock and denies our American livestock producers the
opportunity to focus on promoting U.S. beef, lamb, pork, chicken or goat
meat.” The issue of multiple country-of-origin labels was thoroughly
discussed by the House-Senate farm bill conference committee.
Excessive Oil Speculation — An independent report was
released this week by Senators Byron Dorgan (D-ND) and Maria Cantwell
(D-WA) and Congressmen Bart Stupack (D-MI) and Rosa DeLauro (D-CT) that
outlines how speculators drove oil prices to record levels, then
switched their position and “began a mass stampede for the exits.”
The study by Masters Capitol Management and White Knight Research &
Trading uses data from the Commodities Future Trading Commission (CFTC),
the Energy Information Administration, and investment sources to show
how speculators, not supply and demand or a weak dollar, was the leading
cause for record energy prices. Senator Dorgan said, “While these
speculators make enormous profits on both sides of the trade, it was the
American people stuck with the bill every time they filled up their gas
tank this summer. This report is another example of how oil speculators
can control the market while the federal agency, which should be
protecting American consumers, has been dead from the neck up.”
Conservation Groups Urge Funding — In a letter to the House
and Senate appropriations and agriculture committees, the Sustainable Ag
Coalition and conservation groups urged that conservation funding for
fiscal year 2009 be kept at the levels established by the 2008 Farm
Bill. In the letter the groups said, “Agriculture provides important
environmental benefits to the public through applying conservation
systems on the land. Farmers are willing to share in the cost of
protecting our environment, but currently more than half of farm
applicants are turned away by USDA because of insufficient federal
funding. As a result, we continue to lose thousands of acres of
farmland, wetlands, grasslands and private forest lands, and our efforts
to clean up rivers, lakes and bays are falling further behind
schedule.” Groups that signed the letter included American Farmland
Trust, National Audubon Society, Defenders of Wildlife, Sustainable
Agriculture Coalition, Pollinator Partnership, National Wildlife
Federation and the Izaak Walton League of America.
Near Record Deficit FY 2008 — The result of a weak economy
and a sharp increase in government spending will leave the federal
budget deficit for fiscal year 2008 at a near-record $407 billion,
according to the Congressional Budget Office (CBO). Earlier this year,
CBO had estimated the budget deficit to reach only $219 billion.
Estimates for the fiscal year 2009 federal budget deficit is a record
$438 billion and is expected to go even higher because of the
administration’s takeover of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac. The record
for the budget deficit is $413 billion for fiscal year 2004. This
continuation of record deficits will make it difficult for either
presidential candidate to deliver on their promises concerning tax cuts
and funding priorities.
Congress is Back — Congress returned to work this week to a
full agenda. The House and Senate leadership have indicated they want
to try and move an energy bill. The House Democrats are considering a
proposal to allow all coastal states the choice of drilling for oil and
natural gas 50 miles off a state’s coast. All federal waters outside
of 100 miles would be open for drilling without the need for state
action. The question is will this be enough for the Republican
leadership or will they want more drilling options. Other items under
discussion for Congress is a second economic-stimulus package, defense
authorization, a fix for the alternative minimum tax, tax extenders,
loan guarantees ($50 billion) for automakers and fiscal year 2009
appropriations. Congress is expected to leave the end of the month for
the election. Indications are Congress will return after the election
for a lame duck session in November.
P. Scott Shearer
Vice President
Bockorny Group
Washington, D.C.
Pork Industry Calendar
Sept. 19, 2008: “Hydrogen Sulfide:
How Serious An Air Quality Concern?” Web cast at 1:30 p.m. (CST),
sponsored by the Livestock and Poultry Environmental Learning Center at
Kansas State University; contact: http://www.extension.org.
Sept. 20-23, 2008: Leman Swine Conference, RiverCentre
Conference Facility, St. Paul, MN; contact: vop@umn.edu or www.cvm.umn.edu/outreach/events.
Click
here to get National Hog Farmer's complete pork
industry calendar.
New to the Team. Veteran of the Game.
Fast-acting Baytril® 100 (enrofloxacin) is approved for treatment
and control of swine respiratory disease. When a proven winner joins an
already great team, the results are phenomenal. So Bayer Animal Health
is proud to offer Baytril 100 for treatment and control of swine
respiratory disease (SRD) in all phases of production. For use by or on
the order of a licensed veterinarian. Swine intended for human
consumption must not be slaughtered within 5 days of receiving a single
injection dose.
Click on the Baytril 100 logo for more information.
|
|
You are subscribed to this newsletter as #email#
To get this newsletter in a different format (Text or HTML),
or to change your e-mail address, please visit your profile
page to change your delivery preferences.
For questions concerning delivery of this newsletter, please contact our
Customer Service Department at:
National Hog Farmer
A Penton Media publication
US Toll Free: 866-505-7173
International: 847-763-9504
Email:nationalhogfarmer@pbinews.com
Penton Media | 249 W. 17th Street | New York, NY 10011
Copyright 2008, Penton Media. All rights reserved. This article is
protected
by United States copyright and other intellectual property laws and may
not be reproduced, rewritten, distributed, re-disseminated, transmitted,
displayed, published or broadcast, directly or indirectly, in any medium
without the prior written permission of Penton Media.
|
|
