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Weather
Jitters Reinforce 2009 Crop Vulnerability
All eyes are on northern skies this week as everyone
involved in the production and use of corn and soybeans watches the
weather. A forecast for frost in the northern plains the weekend of
Sept. 26-27 lit a fire under both corn and soybean futures markets
earlier last week, underscoring the precarious position of this year’s
late-maturing crops. Most analysts believe we need at least two more
frost-free weeks in Iowa to realize the yields being predicted by USDA.
The potential for lower yields is high this year, but the normal changes
of actual vs. predicted yields are just the opposite. Robert Wisner,
professor emeritus at Iowa State University, has compiled the long track
record of USDA’s September yield forecasts vs. final yield estimates
the following January for corn and soybeans. The results of his
comparisons appear in Figures 1 and 2.
Final corn yields have been higher than the September estimate in 31
(71%) of the 44 years shown in Figure 1. The difference has been more
than 5% in nine (over 20%) of those 44 years. The average change in
yield for all years except those with major weather stress has been
2.3%. That would translate to an increase of 3.7 bu./acre this year,
nearly 300 million more bushels of corn, if frost does not nip those
yields.
Final soybean yield estimates also tend to increase from the September
forecast, but the magnitude and frequency of those increases are smaller
than those for corn. USDA’s soybean yield increased in only 56% of
the past 44 years and the increase was, on average, only 1.8% in those
years that did not face significant weather challenges. Such an
increase this year would add only about 0.75 bu./acre and increase
soybean supplies by about 58 million bushels. That doesn’t sound like
much, but in a year projected to be as tight as this, it could certainly
make a difference for soybean and soybean meal prices.
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My
Blackberry – I Love It, I Hate It
I have had a Blackberry for about two years and have a
love-hate relationship with it.
I love having it to glance at and to answer emails; it saves me a lot of
time when I am on the road and allows me to stay caught up with
messages. I also have the internet feature that I use to look at the
markets and see what is happening on the Chicago Board of Trade with
grain and hog futures. It keeps me up-to-date and apprised of the
markets.
The hate relationship part of this is that I never seem to be able to
escape information because it is coming at me 24 hours a day, 7 days a
week. There is so much information that there are times I would like to
be on a deserted island to get away from it for a while.
The reason I am bringing this is up is I was looking at the markets this
morning (Sept. 15) and the grain markets were called slightly higher and
hogs were called 25-50 cents higher. I went to a meeting for three hours
and when I checked the markets again, corn was up 25 cents/bu., soybean
meal was up $17/ton, and hogs were up almost $2/cwt. for each month on
the board. This all occurred before 11:00 a.m. I shook my head in
disbelief – and I’m not even a producer.
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Livestock
Disaster Assistance Program
USDA announced that producers may begin applying for
benefits under the provisions of the Emergency Assistance for Livestock,
Honeybees, and Farm-Raised Fish Program (ELAP) and the Livestock Forage
Disaster Program (LFP). ELAP provides emergency assistance to eligible
producers of livestock, honeybees and farm-raised fish that have losses
due to disease, adverse weather or other conditions, including losses
due to blizzards and wildfires. LFP provides payments to eligible
livestock producers who have suffered livestock grazing losses due to
qualifying drought or fire. Eligible livestock under LFP include beef
cattle, alpacas, buffalo, beefalo, dairy cattle, deer, elk, emus,
equine, goats, llamas, poultry, reindeer, sheep and swine. For both
programs, producers must have suffered losses that occurred on or after
Jan. 1, 2008, and before Oct. 1, 2011. For more information on these
programs, producers can contact their local Farm Service Agency county
office or go to the web site: www.fsa.usda.gov.
Natural Claims for Meat and Poultry — USDA’s Food Safety and
Inspection Service (FSIS) has published an Advance Notice of Proposed
Rulemaking concerning the use of the voluntary claim “natural” in
the labeling of meat and poultry products. FSIS is seeking comments to
assist the agency in defining the conditions under which it will permit
the voluntary claim “natural” to be used in labeling of meat and
poultry products. FSIS is interested in comments concerning sodium
lactate and other multifunctional ingredients, “non-traditional”
food processing methods, “enhanced” products, natural and naturally
raised, carbon monoxide, and economic effects. Public comments are due
by Nov. 13, 2009.
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Action
Plan Developed for H1N1 Influenza
State and federal animal health officials and pork
producers have collaborated to produce an on-farm plan to keep the pork
industry operating as normal in the event a U.S. pig herd is suspected
or confirmed as being infected with the novel H1N1 Flu Outbreak
Virus.
The plan covers surveillance and actions recommended when the novel
H1N1
virus is confirmed. State animal health officials remain the
primary source of reliable information for the H1N1 virus and will be
instrumental in the plan’s successful implementation.
Under this plan, the herd veterinarian will work with the state
animal health official and the pork
producer to monitor animals for illness.
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Oct. 8-14, 2009: U.S. Animal Health
Association Annual Meeting, Town and Country Hotel, San Diego, CA;
contact www.usaha.org
for more information.
Oct. 6-7, 2009: The Center for Food Integrity’s
2009 Food System Summit, Hilton Kansas City Airport Hotel, Kansas City,
MO; contact Jim Fallon at (816) 556-3129 or visit www.foodintegrity.org.
Oct. 27-29, 2009: Meat Industry Research Conference. McCormick
Place, Chicago, Illinois. This will take place in conjunction with the
Worldwide Food Expo. Contact AMSA member services at 800-517-2672 or information@meatscience.org.
Web Site: www.worldwidefood.com Past Proceedings Web Site: www.meatscience.org/MIRC/
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