NHF_WEEKLY PREVIEW_ A Penton Media Property May 8, 2009 If you want to view this on the web go to: http://enews.penton.com/enews/nationalhogfarmer/v/391 MARKET PREVIEW --Waning Flu Scare Deepens Financial Woes It appears that the H1N1 influenza scare is dissipating, but not before it has wreaked havoc in pork and hog markets, and left pork producers and packers in an even deeper financial bind. The damage has been significant, especially when piled on top of what has happened over the past 18 months. Figure 1 shows price and value changes from Friday, April 24, the first day of the H1N1 influenza news, through Wednesday, May 6. The impact, of course, is heaviest in the market for pigs priced through negotiated trades. That price bottomed (hopefully!) on Tuesday at $50.84/cwt. carcass, $10.24 lower than on April 24. That decline took nearly $22 off the value of each pig sold through negotiated trades. The impact on all producers has been less since a minority of pigs are sold through negotiated trades, and prices determined in other manners are not as sensitive as negotiated prices. The "All Purchases" section of Figure 1 shows the weighted average price of all producer-sold pigs on the dates shown. These include swine/pork market formulas, which tend to move with the negotiated prices, but lag them by a couple of days due to multi-day averages used in many contracts. They also include other market formulas, which are almost exclusively tied to Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) lean hogs futures, and other purchase arrangements which are largely comprised of cost-plus contracts. Prices from these two methods do not move with negotiated prices. These prices have fallen by $7.59/cwt. carcass. To view the full article go to: http://nationalhogfarmer.com/marketpreview/0508-waning-flu-scare-deepens-financial-woes PRODUCTION PREVIEW --Focusing on Farrowing Rate Farrowing rate is one of the Key Performance Indicators (KPIs) used in the Swine Management Services' (SMS) database. It also has one of the flattest KPI bell curves (Chart 1). Farrowing rates range from less than 64% to 94% for the most current 52-week period that data has been summarized. The top 10% of farms averaged 88.5%, while the bottom 25% averaged 78.1%. All farms in the SMS database averaged 82.9%. There are three main variables that impact the success of a mating/service -- the sow or gilt, the semen quality, and the skill of the person doing the insemination. We refer to these variables as the SMS Fertility Triangle (picture 1). If all three variables have a 90% success rate, you will achieve a 73% farrowing rate. To get a 90% farrowing rate, all three variables must be successful 97% of the time -- which doesn't leave much room for error. To view the full article go to: http://nationalhogfarmer.com/genetics-reproduction/0508-focusing-on-farrowing-rate LEGISLATIVE PREVIEW --Pork Producers Ask USDA for Help The National Pork Producers Council (NPPC) is asking USDA to help the U.S. pork industry deal with the negative effects of the H1N1 flu outbreak. NPPC indicates the flu outbreak has accelerated losses of $17.69 per hog marketed as of May 1. NPPC is asking USDA to: * "Implement a USDA purchase program for $50 million of pork products to help boost cash hog prices. Products can be put into federal emergency food programs, food pantries, senior/elderly feeding programs, hunger programs and other non-commercial food channels. * Urge President Obama to work with U.S. trading partners to remove all restrictions on exports of U.S. pork and pork products and to maintain U.S. pork export markets around the world. * Develop a comprehensive surveillance program for swine diseases, which will provide an early warning for emerging diseases that affect human and animal health. * Provide for mandatory premises and animal identification, which would be necessary for an effective surveillance program. * Work to keep open the border between the United States and Canada -- in the wake of a report that pigs on a Canadian pork operation contracted the H1N1 flu from a worker -- to allow hog movements." International Organizations Say Pork is Safe -- The World Health Organization (WHO), the Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO), World Organization for Animal Health (OIE) and the World Trade Organization (WTO) released a joint statement stressing the safety of pork products and rejecting bans on pork imports from countries with human cases of H1N1 flu. The groups said: "In light of the spread of influenza A/H1N1, and the rising concerns about the possibility of this virus being found in pigs and the safety of pork and pork products, we stress that pork and pork products, handled in accordance with good hygienic practices recommended by the WHO, FAO, Codex Alimentarius Commission and the OIE, will not be a source of infection. To date there is no evidence that the virus is transmitted by food. There is currently therefore no justification in the OIE Terrestrial Animal Health Standards Code for the imposition of trade measures on the importation of pigs or their products." To view the full article go to: http://nationalhogfarmer.com/northamericanpreview/0508-pork-producers-ask-usda-for-help NEWS FLASH --Farm Bureau Calls for Funding Pork Purchases The Agriculture Department should make additional purchases of pork using the Section 32 program to help provide stability to the pork industry, suffering from lost markets due to the recent outbreak of theH1N1 influenza A virus (http://www.cdc.gov/h1n1flu/qa.htm), according to theAmerican Farm Bureau Federation (http://www.fb.org/)(AFBF). AFBF President Bob Stallman requested the Section 32 aid for pork in a letter sent Thursday to Agriculture Secretary Tom Vilsack. To view the full article go to: http://nationalhogfarmer.com/health-diseases/news/0507-farm-bureau-pork-funding PORK INDUSTRY CALENDAR May 27 - 29, 2009: PORK 101; Texas A&M University, College Station, Texas Registration Contact: AMSA member services at 800-517-2672 or information@meatscience.org (mailto:information@meatscience.org). Web Site: http://www.pork101.org (http://www.pork101.org/). June 2, 2009: Swine Handling & Transport Forum, Des Moines Marriott-Downtown, Des Moines, IA; sponsored by National Hog Farmer, National Pork Producers Council and National Pork Board. For details, go to www.pork.org (http://www.pork.org). June 3-5, 2009 World Pork Expo, Iowa State Fairgrounds, Des Moines, IA. For details go to: www.pork.org (http://www.pork.org). To view the full article go to: http://nationalhogfarmer.com/calendar/ ABOUT THIS NEWSLETTER You are subscribed to this newsletter as #email# To subscribe to this newsletter go to: http://subscribe.nationalhogfarmer.com/?tc=NLSUB To unsubscribe from this newsletter go to: http://subscribe.nationalhogfarmer.com/?tc=NLSUB&cid=#message_id#&lid=#list_id#&email=#email# Send Comments & Questions Dale Miller, Editor, National Hog Farmer, mailto:dale.miller@penton.com Penton Media | 249 W. 17th Street | New York, NY 10011 Copyright 2009, Penton Media. All rights reserved. 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