| IN THE February
3, 2010 ISSUE |
Multifamily Lenders Share Their Biggest Concerns For The Road
Ahead
LAS VEGAS — What’s the biggest worry among multifamily
lenders in 2010 and 2011? The usual suspects, jobs and interest rates,
rank high on the list. But for Kenneth Bacon, executive vice president
of Fannie Mae, the sharp drop in real estate valuations from peak levels
just a few short years ago is most troubling.
Although determining value remains a difficult task because there have
been relatively few transactions, the Moodys/REAL Commercial Property
Price Index numbers show a 40% drop for multifamily properties from the
market peak to the third quarter of 2009.
MBA Loan Originations Data Shows Signs of
Stabilization
LAS VEGAS — Lenders are showing signs of coming out of
hibernation with life insurance companies leading the way, according to
new data released Tuesday by the Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA).
Commercial and multifamily mortgage originations rose 12% in the fourth
quarter compared with the same period a year earlier. Loan originations
in the fourth quarter also were 15% higher than in the third
quarter.
To be sure, commercial and multifamily mortgage originations remain at
low levels in absolute terms, says Jamie Woodwell, vice president of
commercial real estate research at the MBA based in Washington, D.C. The
Commercial/Multifamily Mortgage Bankers Originations Index, for example,
fell 79% over a two-year period ending in the third quarter of
2009.
Real Capital Analytics Acquires Real Estate
Econometrics
Two familiar names in the commercial real estate
information industry have merged. New York-based research firm Real
Capital Analytics (RCA) has acquired Real Estate Econometrics, whose
founder, Sam Chandan, has been named global chief economist and
executive vice president at Real Capital Analytics.
The acquisition has been finalized and Chandan has already moved into
the Real Capital Analytics offices, the company confirmed this
morning.
Ailing CMBS Loans Enter Rehab
No one expected it. Delinquent commercial mortgage-backed
securities (CMBS), which amounted to less than $20 billion in October of
2008, mushroomed to a mind-boggling $65.2 billion at the end of November
2009, according to commercial real estate data and analytics firm Trepp
LLC.
Few seasoned investors would have projected that CMBS delinquencies
could reach 9% by the end of 2010, either. Yet the volume of loans in
special servicing — including performing loans in imminent trouble —
could reach $90 billion to $100 billion this year, according to Trepp.
That mounting distress is creating a renewed sense of urgency among the
special servicers who must support its weight.
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