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From Retail Traffic | A Penton Media Publication December 30, 2008 | Volume 6 Number 54
IN THIS ISSUE
Looking Back, Looking Forward

Chart Of The Week

Projection: Up To 3,000 Retail Properties To Close


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ONLINE EXCLUSIVE


Looking Back, Looking Forward
By David Bodamer

The final numbers aren’t yet in, but there’s little doubt that 2008 was the worst holiday shopping season in a generation, marking an ignoble finish to a dismal year for retail. ICSC warned that same-store sales might be down as much as 2 percent for November and December combined when the final numbers are tallied, making it the worst season in at least 40 years. That may be enough to send some weakened retailers over the brink in 2009.

How did it come to this? A year ago we knew things were bad, but few expected 2008 to unravel to this degree. The first bad omen for the retail real estate sector actually occurred in late 2007—December 17 to be exact. That’s when Centro Properties Group first announced that it was teetering on the brink of insolvency. The trust limped through 2008 trying to find a savior. At one point it was able to arrange a mass sale of assets in a bid to raise cash to pay back some of its debt. But the relief was short-lived. The deal later fell apart. The company changed CEOs and was able to arrange several debt extensions. In the end--almost exactly a year to the day that it first disclosed its troubles--Centro agreed to cede control to its banks after failing to refinance $3.4 billion of debt.

Early in the year rapidly rising food and fuel prices hammered consumers hard. In spending more on necessities, consumers had to cut back on discretionary purchases. At the same time, job losses piled up and accelerated as the year went on. The unemployment rate rose from a low of 4.5 percent to 6.8 percent today—the highest level since the 1980s recession. A broader measure of unemployment—one that counts discouraged workers and part-time workers looking for full-time jobs—puts unemployment at 12.5 percent.
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CHART OF THE WEEK


Chart Of The Week
By Staff Reports

According to the September results for the S&P/GRA Commercial Real Estate Indices, commercial real estate prices were down 0.6 percent nationally compared with September 2007, just the second annual decline measured in the 15 years of data in the index. The September results are the final numbers for the indices, which was discontinued on Dec. 23.

In the property sectors, three sectors reported negative returns over the September/August period, while one sector reported a positive return. Retail was –0.7 percent from September/August and -0.4 percent year over year. Apartments were the best performing sector and Office was the worst performing, returning +1.6 percent and -1.3 percent for the month, respectively. Apartments were the only property sector that reported positive returns on a year-over-year basis, returning +1.7 percent. Warehouse, down 3.3 percent, was the worst performing sector over the one year period.
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The Penton Commercial Real Estate Group teamed up to produce a special research report about going green. Click here to download the Green Building Survey and Directory. For information on how to participate in the 2009 directory, please contact Associate Publisher Amie Leibovitz.


BEST OF THE BLOG


Projection: Up To 3,000 Retail Properties To Close
By David Bodamer

This from the Boston Herald--analyst Burt Flickinger says that up to 3,000 retail properties could close in March and April. That sounds like a massive, massive number. We haven't heard anyone else make that kind of projection. We haven't heard about many actual mall closings at all to date. There's certainly a lot of properties hurting. But could that projection possibly be right?

The current spate of retailer bankruptcies and those expected in the new year - along with still-healthy companies limiting or stopping their expansions - could have a ripple effect on the commercial real estate market.

Burt P. Flickinger, managing director of New York consulting firm Strategic Resource Group, expects 2,000 to 3,000 U.S. malls and shopping centers to close in March and April.

Read full story here.

Check out other blog entries from the past week:

»
The Push for the Bailout Continues
»
GGP Signs Forbearance Agreement
»
As More US Retailers Fail, Malls Could Be Next Victim
»
Two More Looks at a Developer Bailout
»
Another Roundup from Bloomberg
»
Venezuela to Expropriate Mall
»
How Did Things Go?
»
Retailers Want a Bailout Too
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