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February 20, 2007

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CONTENTS
The Mod squad

Giving the boot to re-boot

Boom time for edge routing

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Editor's Perspective
The Mod squad
By Tim McElligott
Feb. 20, 2007

Someday, if its provider backbone transport (PBT) ever becomes the technology of choice for point-to-point communication and replaces MPLS in segments like metro networks, Nortel Networks could have the last laugh in the router market. But that's a pretty big if--and so far, there's nothing funny about what Nortel has done to its router business.

And although nobody is laughing these days, a few smiles are beginning to break out on the faces of those working for vendors in the multi-service edge router space. While the core router market dropped 9% in 2006, the edge market grew by 58% year-over-year, according to Dittberner Associates.

One of the reasons for the growth was the increased need to support advanced services such as IPTV and voice over IP. In order to support these services, router manufacturers have had to solve some serious architectural problems in products they designed primarily for the enterprise world. Namely, and at the risk of using a cliché, they had to make their products carrier-grade. To do this, they had to find a way to make them upgradeable in live networks and to compartmentalize processes and applications so that when one had a problem, they didn't all hold hands and jump off the cliff together. In other words, they had to modularize their operating systems.

Some vendors have come out of the box this way; others have had to work a little harder at it. And one, the market leader, has had to find ways to keep competitors at bay (no relation to the router company Nortel acquired then ran into the ground) while it gets as much as it can from its embedded base of non-modular edge routers.

The biggest winners here may not be the router vendors at all. It may be the service providers who have dreamed long and hard about the day they would not have to reboot an entire router or reseat an interface card just to clear a software problem. Service providers have also dreamed of the day they could upgrade to the latest software release and not lose sleep over the possibility that their routers would fail to come back up before the maintenance window expired--or worse, never.

Peace of mind is a powerful selling tool. But in the networking world, it hasn't always been an easy sell. The articles below show that this is starting to change.

E-mail me at tmcelligott@telephonyonline.com.


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Feature
Giving the boot to re-boot
By Tim McElligott
Feb. 20, 2007

Fault-tolerant router design opened the door to the carrier market for rival vendors looking to take the edge off Cisco's market dominance. And the edge is where they started...

(Click on the link above or scroll down for the full-length feature)


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In the Spotlight
Boom time for edge routing
By Tim McElligott
Feb. 20, 2007

A quarterly report released last week by Dittberner Associates called "Multiservice Switch and Router Market Analysis" showed fourth-quarter revenue for the edge router market growing by 11% from the previous quarter. This capped a year-over-year growth spurt of 58% for this segment. Edge routing now accounts for 64% of the router market. Dittberner research analyst James Heath spoke with Telephony's Tim McElligott about the role modular operating systems are playing in this space...

(Click on the link above or scroll down for the full-length interview)


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Feature (Full-length)
Giving the boot to re-boot
By Tim McElligott
Feb. 20, 2007

Fault-tolerant router design opened the door to the carrier market for rival vendors looking to take the edge off Cisco's market dominance. And the edge is where they started.

Packet routing technology has revolutionized networking--no doubt about that. But in at least one way, routers have fallen short of expectations for telecommunications service providers spoiled by the resiliency of their world-class, circuit-switched networks: high availability. Here we will look at how modular operating systems have closed both the resiliency gap and the gap between market leaders in the multi-service edge routing space.

What is a modular operating system? Like the IP multimedia subsystem (IMS) and the esoteric metric known as quality-of-service, the modular OS has many definitions. Their differences lay primarily in the level, or depth, of modularity designed into the software code. It could be as simple as compartmentalizing the control plane and the forwarding plane, or as complex as building different modules for each protocol a router supports or process it performs.

There are no standards for modularity. The router OS more than the hardware is where vendors find their differentiation, and each follows its own path. But one thing is sure, said Michael Howard, principal analyst and co-founder of Infonetics Research: "The only way you can achieve true high-availability is with a modular operating system."

Most router suppliers claim they already provide the requisite five-nines (99.999%) reliability, which is as good as traditional telecom network equipment, so why the need for more? When it comes to network maintenance, carriers seldom reboot a Class 5 switch or a signal transfer point. It is too disruptive to the network and to customers, and it has a direct impact on revenue. But too often, historically, the fix in the router world has been--much like the PC world--to reboot.

Modularity in the OS solves this problem. Its two primary benefits are that it allows problems in a particular module to be isolated to that module and fixed while the router maintains services through other modules, and that it allows network operators to apply new software releases without taking the router out of service. So long, maintenance window.

Infonetics Research reported that downtime in large enterprise networks costs businesses 2% to 16% of their revenue. And software more than hardware is the culprit in the majority of downtime. Carriers can't stand for that--thus the phrase "carrier-grade."

Howard said his firm surveyed 27 major service providers around the world (those with average revenue over $16 billion last year) and found that the No. 1 capability they wanted in their purchase of IP edge routers is high-availability and non-stop services. And the No. 1 feature of core routers is a modular operating system.

The desire for such a configuration opened doors for companies such as Redback Networks and Juniper Networks to chip away at the market dominance of Cisco, which only recently began bringing modularity to market. An IDC study published in December for the third quarter of 2006 showed that Cisco still commands 51% of the worldwide IP edge router market. Alcatel (with Lucent reported separately) had 16%, Juniper 14% and Redback 6%.

Dittberner showed Cisco a couple of percentage points lower by the fourth quarter, but said the company's edge router revenue grew by 100% year-over-year. It had Juniper at 12%, Alcatel-Lucent at 24% and Redback at 4%.

Howard said the modular OS is now a requirement for the market, and that Cisco may have finally closed the window of opportunity for any more new entrants by catching up with the modular concept in the latest release of its IOC XR software. Still, "You can bet that Juniper and Redback used that in their sales strategies when they first started," he said.

They still do. With such a huge embedded base, Cisco has a long way to go to get its customers transitioned to a new modular architecture. Competitors are counting on this time to make up as much ground as they can.

"That's what allowed us to get into so many of the top service providers," said Ravi Medikonda, director of product marketing for Redback. "We were one of the first to bring this type of product to market in late 2002 and early 2003. Today, 12 of the top 27 providers around the world have deployed our edge routers and modular OS."

Redback also claims to have 700 service provider customers in more than 80 countries. Its carrier clout, especially in the wireless segment, could get stronger now that Redback has become a subsidiary of Ericsson. However, the whole competitive landscape in this market could change soon with this and other acquisitions and mergers. The combination of Ericsson and Redback will now be in a stronger position to compete with Alcatel-Lucent, and soon to with the combined Nokia and Siemens.

One thing that will remain the same is that these companies will be competing for the foreseeable future on the depth and design of their modular operating systems and how easily those are implemented for real-time services.

Redback is primarily an edge router provider. It is unclear at this point whether Ericsson will attempt to take it more into the network core, but either way, the modular design is getting to be a requirement. A key component of a modular OS, one which Redback follows with its Smart Edge Operating System (SEOS,) is to make each process re-startable individually rather than having to restart entire systems or boards, which may contain other processes or applications.

Hardware has its own high-availability story, but as it allows for the consolidation of more functionality such as access aggregation, IP/MPLS PE routing and broadband remote access server (B-RAS), the software has to step up and prevent multiple process failures on any given system board or processor. According to a Redback white paper, the most important operation requiring high availability is user-data forwarding. This is done from both hardware and software angles through the separation of control and data traffic This way activities such as packet inspection, packet forwarding, packet metering and routing table logic can reside on a line card and routing, signaling and management can run on a control card.

As Medikonda said, physical redundancy is fine for non-real-time applications like e-mail and file transfers. But on top of hardware designs, software can be used to increase high availability in a couple of basic ways. Duke University defines them as error processing and fault treatment. Every vendor has its own method for achieving these, but error processing provides the ability to remove errors from the software state or compensate for those errors by adding redundancy. Fault treatment prevents the activation of faults by taking action before the errors reach a critical point.

The modular design adds to that the ability to prevent a fault in one process from traveling to another process, because each process is an independent thread with its own protected memory.

Effectiveness of modularity depends on the size of the modules created, Infonetics' Howard said. But Jim Sugg, director of product management at Juniper, says it is in the design and implementation.

"Anything being sold today is modular at some level, so the biggest benefits are hard to see," he said, referring to such things as better-organized code, a more well-organized development organization and a predictable release schedule.

All the benefits modularity provides internally to a vendor directly translate into benefits for the carriers. For example, Sugg said, better-organized code means that Juniper can track who is directly responsible for certain sections of code. And accountability leads to fewer faults.

"When you divide large sets of complex code into understandable parts, it is easier to maintain, easier and faster to add features and is less likely to cause problems in other areas," Sugg said.

He said a modular design is important and that Juniper launched its first generation of products based on it, but, "it's not whether you are modular or not, but how that architectural decision is expressed in a particular implementation. That's where you start seeing some differentiation."

While a modular design has greatly increased availability of routers and thereby of the network, it hasn't always done much for service degradation or traffic overloads due to malicious attacks. "We have seen in earlier systems where if a router was getting hit with a lot of traffic and there was a lot of change going on in the control plane, the router would drop traffic it wouldn't have otherwise," Sugg said.

Juniper chose to design the forwarding plane so it could keep up with any requests or packet size and do the packet forwarding even when the control plane was under heavy load.

These are the type of architectural choices router manufacturers have to make: how much modularity is required for any particular task. As Sugg said, "There are lots of architectural choices you can make, and the customer requirement for reliability is only going up."

Driving those requirements are real-time voice and video services that have service providers asking about six-nines reliability.

As Kevin DeNuccio, president and CEO of Redback, said at the time the Ericsson acquisition was announced, "Video changes everything."

While Cisco is comparatively late in the game with getting a modular OS-based product to market, particularly in edge routing, it nonetheless has gained some market share in the IPTV segment. It jumped 2% in the third quarter of 2006 to command 65.2% of the market. Redback also gained slightly, while Alcatel lost 2.1% and Juniper stayed even, according to Synergy Research Group.

The total addressable market for edge routing in IPTV was approximately $446 million. The core is worth $221 million. Cisco's dominance in this market may have less to do with router design than with its product suite and ecosystem. Cisco announced a partnership recently with SES Americom, the satellite video provider for rural telcos whereby Cisco will act as a chief infrastructure supplier and integrator for rural telcos through the National Rural Telecommunications Cooperative.

Cisco has made a string of acquisitions for IPTV including Scientific-Atlanta (for set-top boxes) and Arroyo Systems (for video-on-demand). It also added a video-caching appliance to its 7600 family of routers and has invested in Akimbo Systems, a video-on-demand content provider. With the help of its ecosystem of partners, Cisco will supply encoding, encapsulation, third-party middleware, scrambling and de-scrambling, satellite receivers, conditional access and more.

This proves there are other ways to attack the market than touting a modular OS, but it is likely a short-term advantage. The importance of high availability in the video world will require nothing less than the level of reliability only a modular OS (on top of a high-availability hardware platform) can provide.

This is not all to say that modular OSs are immune to trouble, as evidenced in Cisco's recent revelation about a MPLS-related vulnerabilities its IOS XR platform. Systems running Cisco IOS XR and configured for MPLS were vulnerable to exploitation through a modular services card on a Cisco Carrier Routing System 1 or a line card on a Cisco 12000 series router, which would cause it to reload and affect switched traffic.

However, because of the router's modular design, the vulnerability could be addressed without taking down the CRS-1. And that's the whole point.


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In the Spotlight (Full-length)
Boom time for edge routing
By Tim McElligott
Feb. 20, 2007

A quarterly report released last week by Dittberner Associates called "Multiservice Switch and Router Market Analysis" showed fourth-quarter revenue for the edge router market growing by 11% from the previous quarter. This capped a year-over-year growth spurt of 58% for this segment. Edge routing now accounts for 64% of the router market. Dittberner research analyst James Heath spoke with Telephony's Tim McElligott about the role modular operating systems are playing in this space.

On the benefits of a modular OS: The primary benefits are simple: An application can fail, and it doesn't pull down all the other applications running on the router. It's like your PC--when you have a problem with the browser, it shuts down, but it doesn't shut down that Excel spreadsheet you're working on. Because 90% of failures are software-related, partitioning the operating system really reduces the impact of failures on everybody--especially on the edge, where you don't always have a redundant path.

It also makes the upgrade process better. Cisco's old IOS system, for example, used to require a complete cutover of software on all the routers at once. But with the CRS-1 now using a modular OS, they can do it router by router. They have had big problems in the past where people trying to do upgrades have brought the whole network down.

On the window of opportunity the modular OS represents: I believe one of the big functional advantages of Alcatel's 7750 multi-service edge router and Redback's Smart Edge is that they use modular software on the edge. Cisco has made a lot of improvements in terms of feature functionality, but they haven't gotten anywhere near the functionality of the Alcatel or Redback modular systems. And Juniper had a number of things that gave it market share. One is that they never even had that software upgrade issue. They were modular from the beginning.

It's the right market to be in right now. The edge market is up to about 64% of the router business. A year and a half ago, it was 50/50 with the core. So competitors have racked up some great numbers.

On the next level of differentiation once everyone is modular at the edge: I would say a differentiator above and beyond modular is having a backup software image. Alcatel has two software images, and when there is a failure it switches to the backup and you don't get the performance glitches of a single software image. It goes beyond modular, but you have to ask yourself, "at what cost?" I don't know if all service providers are willing to pay for that.

I don't know if Alcatel just happened to be in the right place when the apple dropped or whether they planned for it. I doubt they planned for it; I think they were thinking of a high-availability system like Redback and others, and it just so happened that the trend moved toward real-time applications, which is where we are starting to see the need for added availability.


On the impact of real-time data: As you know, TCP/IP data was very tolerant of failures and time delays. The worst that happened was you had to wait for a window to load. But when you start running telephone conversations and real-time applications like IPTV, it becomes unacceptable to the consumer.

The average bandwidth needed for Web surfing is something like 50 kb/s. It's pretty small. You put in a request, then you read a page--but when you start putting TV on there, you need between 2 Mb/s and 20 Mb/s, and you need it for as long as the TV program is on. Heck, kids leave TVs on 18 hours a day, so that's a lot of bandwidth.

I'm sure that will be worked out down the road, but I don't think that has been well thought-out in the industry. A lot of service providers will find out it's not just as simple as building an ADSL infrastructure that handles Web surfing and then popping a headend in for IPTV capability.

If you are going to be in the edge router business, those types of services are going to make you upgrade the reliability and non-stop performance of your product.

Modularity is a requirement largely because we are going to be doing real-time applications that are going to be on for long periods of time. Even a telephone conversation lasts two or three minutes.


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